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Blue Jays Discussion: Confirmed: Vladimir Guerrero Jr is still good at baseball

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Discoverer said:
"Hey Logan, you know how the last two seasons you were really bad at pretty much everything? Well this year we're thinking you should mix it up and try being really good at everything and see how that goes."
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He and Taylor are quietly looking like they want to be high up on our potential call up list.

Also, we've long passed the stage where Moreno should be ahead of Heineman in every capacity. I'd rather have Gabe here and let Kirk/Collins split DH while Jano is out.

While it is a small sample size, guys whose offensive numbers improve because they suddenly start striking out dramatically less suggest that it isn't a blip.
 
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Verlander has been the Verlander of old too. 15 Ks, 0.69 ERA and WHIP through his first 2 starts.

Definitely not a favorable matchup especially considering the Jays are missing a third of their lineup assuming Springer sits again.
 
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Bjindaho said:
He and Taylor are quietly looking like they want to be high up on our potential call up list.

Also, we've long passed the stage where Moreno should be ahead of Heineman in every capacity. I'd rather have Gabe here and let Kirk/Collins split DH while Jano is out.

While it is a small sample size, guys whose offensive numbers improve because they suddenly start striking out dramatically less suggest that it isn't a blip.
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Since they're not on the 40-man, I assume both Warmoth and Taylor would have to keep it up for quite a while before actually getting a shot. Warmoth has been bad for a long time, so that makes sense, but I would love to see Taylor get a chance considering how good he was in AA last year.
 
Discoverer said:
Since they're not on the 40-man, I assume both Warmoth and Taylor would have to keep it up for quite a while before actually getting a shot. Warmoth has been bad for a long time, so that makes sense, but I would love to see Taylor get a chance considering how good he was in AA last year.
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We could make a 40 man spot in a heartbeat if we wanted to. Whether it be a DFA of a pitcher, or Heineman and call up Moreno.

Taylor would be interesting for many reasons IMO. One of them would be that it likely moves Tanner Morris up to AAA. They've both been quietly doing their thing while people talk about Martinez, Groshans, Lopez, etc.

Also, Groshans played his first game for Dunedin (rehabbing in Florida before he moves further north) and was 1-3 with a BB and a double.
 
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Warmoth started last season pretty hot too and then turned into a potato at the plate. I'm going to wait a few more months before believing that his current play is anything more that a Grichuk-like hot start to the season.
 
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Starry Knight said:
Warmoth started last season pretty hot too and then turned into a potato at the plate. I'm going to wait a few more months before believing that his current play is anything more that a Grichuk-like hot start to the season.
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I would have to check, but I'm pretty sure last year he just hit a few HR and had a ridiculous BABIP early on. He was walking a bit and striking out a TON, whereas this year his baseline numbers are unlike anything he's done. (But absolutely, we should wait a while before trying to draw any conclusions here).

Edit: through 12 games...

2021 - 131 wRC+, 3 HR, .409 BABIP, 6.4 BB%, 38.3 K%,
2022 - 175 wRC+, 2 HR, .357 BABIP, 13.3 BB%, 17.8 K%

Still a tiny sample, of course, but 2021 looks like a flukey/lucky/unsustainable start, while 2022 just looks amazing in every way.
 
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Discoverer said:
I would have to check, but I'm pretty sure last year he just hit a few HR and had a ridiculous BABIP early on. He was walking a bit and striking out a TON, whereas this year his baseline numbers are unlike anything he's done. (But absolutely, we should wait a while before trying to draw any conclusions here).

Edit: through 12 games...

2021 - 131 wRC+, 3 HR, .409 BABIP, 6.4 BB%, 38.3 K%,
2022 - 175 wRC+, 2 HR, .357 BABIP, 13.3 BB%, 17.8 K%

Still a tiny sample, of course, but 2021 looks like a flukey/lucky/unsustainable start, while 2022 just looks amazing in every way.
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It often gets lost in translation, but the biggest thing that a young player can do to improve is find ways to strike out less.

Homers are nice, but if you K 38.3% of the time, you would have to hit .446 in your other AB to have a .275 average. At 17.8%, that goes down to .335 for a .275 season.
 
Bjindaho said:
It often gets lost in translation, but the biggest thing that a young player can do to improve is find ways to strike out less.

Homers are nice, but if you K 38.3% of the time, you would have to hit .446 in your other AB to have a .275 average. At 17.8%, that goes down to .335 for a .275 season.
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Taking this one step further, here are the current leaders with 2 strikes..

mlb.com/stats/?split=2s

There are 21 players with an OPS over .800 with 2 strikes, but when you look at K's, at most 8 of them have a realistic chance of staying there.

A guy like Austin Riley who has gotten to 2 strikes 27 times and has 13 K, 4BB and is 7 for 10 on balls in play isn't staying near those numbers.
 
WARmoth is back, baby!!


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Bjindaho said:
Taking this one step further, here are the current leaders with 2 strikes..

mlb.com/stats/?split=2s

There are 21 players with an OPS over .800 with 2 strikes, but when you look at K's, at most 8 of them have a realistic chance of staying there.

A guy like Austin Riley who has gotten to 2 strikes 27 times and has 13 K, 4BB and is 7 for 10 on balls in play isn't staying near those numbers.
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Yeah, this is why I didn't have any problem trading Griffin Conine, even knowing how poorly Villar worked out for the Jays. Even before the trade I couldn't see a path to the majors for a guy who strikes out that much, especially considering age/level.
 
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Discoverer said:
Yeah, this is why I didn't have any problem trading Griffin Conine, even knowing how poorly Villar worked out for the Jays. Even before the trade I couldn't see a path to the majors for a guy who strikes out that much, especially considering age/level.
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But his power!!!!

I kinda forgot about him as a prospect, but looking at his numbers.... lol. 47.4% K% in 173 PA at AA last season. 49% in 49 this year. Imagine striking out every other time you go up to bat?
 
phillipmike said:


I’ve been underwhelmed with Kirk so far not realizing he has great numbers.

Kirk is 1st in walks on the Jays and has 13 less PAs than 2nd (Vladdy). He is 4th on the Jays among healthy players in BA.

When the extra base hits come, then he is a top 5 catcher. Defence has improved so far too.
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Exactly. That's why we have to remain patient and not overreact after 10 games or so. Let players settle in to a groove, it can take time.
 
Ricky Tiedemann must have some overpowering stuff. 4 innings/0 hits/4 walks/7 SO.
 
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