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Speculation: Conditional Picks: "Lottery Protected" Or "Top Three Protected"

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rt

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May 13, 2004
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At the trade deadline, these terms were synonymous and interchangeable. With word coming out that now that lottery will have a maximum of 4 slot movement, they are suddenly extremely different things.

Does anyone know how specific the verbiage is on these trades? I'm asking because I'm an Arizona fan. I am wondering if the 2020 1st rounder Arizona traded to New Jersey on the condition that Arizona would retain the pick if they...

A) Won a lottery

or

B) Got a top three pick

So which is it? What is the protection, specifically?

I've seen it listed on different sites both ways, and I don't know if that's because they knew for sure, or because it didn't really matter how it was worded a few months ago.

Does anyone know a way to verify this information?

I don't think speculation is helpful.
 
If Arizona's 2020 1st selection is in the top three, New Jersey will receive Arizona's 1st round pick in 2021

arizona can't get a top-3 selection because the nhl is reverting back to the old lottery system, thus the pick becomes the devils pick regardless of where it lands. the highest the coyotes can land is the 6th pick, but that seems unlikely
 
rent free said:
2020 NHL Entry Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

scroll to the 10th pick
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CapFriendly is the first place I checked, also. Unfortunately, they don't cite their source for this verbiage. Let me rephrase my question:

"Can anyone on this board verify what the actual verbiage is that it registered with the league?" <-- that's the only thing I'm interested in knowing. What are the actual words on the actual trade call?
 
rt said:
CapFriendly is the first place I checked, also. Unfortunately, they don't cite their source for this verbiage. Let me rephrase my question:

"Can anyone on this board verify what the actual verbiage is that it registered with the league?" <-- that's the only thing I'm interested in knowing. What are the actual words on the actual trade call?
Click to expand...
i'm pretty confident is saying that the source for any trade verbiage is never cited, so i doubt you'll find what you're looking for
 
rent free said:
i'm pretty confident is saying that the source for any trade verbiage is never cited, so i doubt you'll find what you're looking for
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I really want to see verification of how these things are worded on the official trade calls. Interpretation, speculation, and opinions aren't terrible interesting on this because it is minutia in the extreme. I'm being pedantic because this is an extremely pedantic matter. I know it's frustrating, but the only thing I want is whats actually on the official document. Or what the official precedent is for this kind of verbiage. I assume they aren't written from scratch. There is likely a form or template that is used to official register these trades, and any conditions that come with them. There must be standard verbiage, and I am hoping somebody can authoritatively confirm what it is.

I have asked team beat-writers to confirm with their teams. That would be good enough for me. I've asked the national guys to confirm, as well. Again, that would suffice. I don't actually expect to hear back from any of them, obviously. So I thought I'd at least attempt to crowd-source the intelligence here. Perhaps somebody remembers an article recently written that explains exactly how these things work. Maybe there was another controversy recently that caused somebody to look into this and find an answer. I'm asking if any knows for certain and can show me. It might be a long-shot, but it's also not unreasonable.
 
Specific verbiage may not matter, because it will be up to the NHL to decide on conditions. Teams will then have a week to come up with an alternate arrangement that suits both teams better. If they cannot come up with an alternate arrangement, whatever the NHL decided on as a condition will stand.

It is a toss up to how they'd enforce the Arizona condition. If I'm the NHL, I let Arizona keep their pick if they win the lottery, because it would be highly unlikely that New Jersey would have received the 6th overall pick if the season continued play. That is just my thought process though, I have no idea what the NHL would rule.

I think in the case of "playoff protected" picks, they will consider any team in the bottom 15 as a non-playoff team, because playoff protected is really top 15 protected. So, Pittsburgh's pick would transfer to Minnesota and Vancouver's pick would transfer to Carolina.
 
danielpalfredsson said:
Specific verbiage may not matter, because it will be up to the NHL to decide on conditions. Teams will then have a week to come up with an alternate arrangement that suits both teams better. If they cannot come up with an alternate arrangement, whatever the NHL decided on as a condition will stand.

It is a toss up to how they'd enforce the Arizona condition. If I'm the NHL, I let Arizona keep their pick if they win the lottery, because it would be highly unlikely that New Jersey would have received the 6th overall pick if the season continued play. That is just my thought process though, I have no idea what the NHL would rule.

I think in the case of "playoff protected" picks, they will consider any team in the bottom 15 as a non-playoff team, because playoff protected is really top 15 protected. So, Pittsburgh's pick would transfer to Minnesota and Vancouver's pick would transfer to Carolina.
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Interesting. I'm a Coyotes fan so obviously I am HOPING they keep their pick. However, if the official trade call registered with the league says "Top Three" then I think New Jersey deserves to keep it, even if Arizona wins the lottery. I mean it SUCKS but i think ti's less fair to New Jersey to have to push back the pick they receive another year, despite the trade they agreed to stating "Top Three" protection. Now if it's "Lottery" protection and Arizona wins, I don't think New Jersey has anything to complain about if AZ keeps their 6th overall.

I guess what I'm saying is that what the official document says, really DOES matter (to me at least).
 
rt said:
Interesting. I'm a Coyotes fan so obviously I am HOPING they keep their pick. However, if the official trade call registered with the league says "Top Three" then I think New Jersey deserves to keep it, even if Arizona wins the lottery. I mean it SUCKS but i think ti's less fair to New Jersey to have to push back the pick they receive another year, despite the trade they agreed to stating "Top Three" protection. Now if it's "Lottery" protection and Arizona wins, I don't think New Jersey has anything to complain about if AZ keeps their 6th overall.

I guess what I'm saying is that what the official document says, really DOES matter (to me at least).
Click to expand...

My interpretation of the recent news is, it won't matter what the the trade call says. It will matter what the NHL thinks the spirit of the condition was, and how the NHL chooses to enforce it. I personally would rule in favor of ARZ retaining the pick with a lottery win, because it was highly unlikely that NJD were going to get a top 6 pick naturally if COVID-19 didn't stop the season and lead to an altered lottery format. Some people might feel differently. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the NHL decides. (Assuming they go with this format and a June draft)
 
Coyotes beat-writer confirmed for me that it's "Top 3" rather than "Lottery". So it looks like case-closed to me. As I expected, the pick is New Jersey's. Congrats to them. I hope it wins the lottery and Chayka gets fired. Hopefully Meruelo can talk Dean Lombardi into taking over the team and saving us.

Here's what Chayka has done with our draft picks via trade:

Traded away:

2013 1st and 2nd round picks
2014 1st and 2nd round picks
2015 1st round picks (both of them)
2017 1st round picks (both of them) and 3rd round picks (both of them)
2018 2nd round pick
2020 1st round pick and 2020 3rd round
2021 2nd or 3rd round pick (conditional)

Aaaaaaand ZERO playoff appearances for the trouble. Not one.
 
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From NHL.com - seems pretty clear that the trade condition refers to whether it is a top-3 pick.

If Arizona's first-round selection in the 2020 draft is in the top three, the Devils will receive the Coyotes' first-round pick in the 2021 draft. The third-round pick in the 2021 draft will become a second-round pick if Arizona wins a round in the playoffs or Hall re-signs, and it will become a first-round pick if the Coyotes win a round in the playoffs and Hall re-signs.
Click to expand...
 
Trade conditions would obviously be more specific than "lottery protected" so there would be nothing to intepret or arbitrate. Sounds like it's top 3. I'd imagine all protections like that are top X picks rather than win a lottery.

On a somewhat related note I hate how people often use these terms. More specifically in regards to teams. "Lottery teams" to mean a bottom 3 or bottom 5 team when every team that misses the playoffs is in the lottery thus a lottery team. Likewise the term lottery protected could mean a pick is protected if it's in the lottery. There's no room for ambiguity in trades so it would clearly be agreed upon, likely as a top X pick situation.
 
rt said:
Coyotes beat-writer confirmed for me that it's "Top 3" rather than "Lottery". So it looks like case-closed to me. As I expected, the pick is New Jersey's. Congrats to them. I hope it wins the lottery and Chayka gets fired. Hopefully Meruelo can talk Dean Lombardi into taking over the team and saving us.

Here's what Chayka has done with our draft picks via trade:

Traded away:

2013 1st and 2nd round picks
2014 1st and 2nd round picks
2015 1st round picks (both of them)
2017 1st round picks (both of them) and 3rd round picks (both of them)
2018 2nd round pick
2020 1st round pick and 2020 3rd round
2021 2nd or 3rd round pick (conditional)

Aaaaaaand ZERO playoff appearances for the trouble. Not one.
Click to expand...
Chayka didn't even become GM until 2016.
2017- traded ONE first rounder (became Lias Anderson...ugh) and Tony DeAngelo for Raanta and Stepan
2018- traded the CONDITIONAL 3rd (became a 2nd) for Crouse and Bolland
2020-traded the first for Taylor Hall

Dislike Chayka all you want but at least do it for the right reasons.
 
Brian McDavid said:
Chayka didn't even become GM until 2016.
2017- traded ONE first rounder (became Lias Anderson...ugh) and Tony DeAngelo for Raanta and Stepan
2018- traded the CONDITIONAL 3rd (became a 2nd) for Crouse and Bolland
2020-traded the first for Taylor Hall

Dislike Chayka all you want but at least do it for the right reasons.
Click to expand...
Oh boy... Chayka traded the players the Coyotes selected with those picks...which I would have thought went without saying. And damn, you missed a whole hell of a lot even if you started counting in 2016.
 
rt said:
Oh boy... Chayka traded the players the Coyotes selected with those picks...which I would have thought went without saying. And damn, you missed a whole hell of a lot even if you started counting in 2016.
Click to expand...
Even if I started in 2016? You mean when Chayka was actually made boss? Oh boy is right... your post is loaded with factual inaccuracies.
 
I interpret lottery protected as in you have a chance to win.

Playoff protected means you didn’t make the playoffs thus not having lottery balls

Things like top 10 ot top 5 protected are more clear cut.

All of this is part of deciding how the lottery will work.
 
Seems pretty clear to me. If NJ 'wins' the lotto with the AZ pick, it becomes 6th overall. It is however unfair that teams made trades under specific lottery rules only to have another set of rules used instead. Although I do prefer the old rules.
 
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From the Yotes perspective, they agreed to trade this year's first if it was anywhere from #4 or lower. It looks like it will be #10, with a very slight chance at being #6. Both of those picks fit into the value range they were willing to give up to acquire Hall. Not having the chance at a top 3 pick isn't an issue unique to the Yotes. None of the other teams between #6-15 will have that chance, either.
 
rt said:
I've got my answer if someone wants to lock this down?
Click to expand...

We're destined to hear more news about this, so I'll leave it open for now.

rent free said:
What's the answer then?
Click to expand...

The pick was "Top 3" protected specifically.


As has been discussed also in this thread, the League is looking into each affected conditional pick and come up with it's own, "in the spirit" solution. They will also, reportedly, allow each of the involved teams to renegotiate the details of a conditional pick to each club's satisfaction. If the two clubs cannot come to an agreement, the League will impose their own, previously arrived-at, solution.
 
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