At present, NIL isn't available to non-US students so it's not a factor for Canadians. But if a prominent US kid can get a decent NIL deal, that definitely might alter how he approaches things. I don't know the financials regarding how much a top hockey player might be able to get from NIL.
CHL will definitely pull plenty of talent away from USHL/BCHL/Junior A. Superior competition will be a draw, and the scholarship funds will entice guys who are questionable in terms of their pro/NCAA hockey potential. Some of the elite prospects with late-in-the-year birthdays will still move to the NCAA for their draft season for the stronger level of competition.
The depth and calibre of NCAA talent is going to improve significantly. There is going to be serious competition for NCAA spots, especially in the short term with so many ex-CHLers available immediately who will be good enough. I bet that there will be some US kids who will come to CHL, play out their junior eligibility, and then take their CHL scholarships and go to school and play hockey at a Canadian university while still hoping to get recruited by the NCAA.
I feel badly for the lower-tier NCAA recruits approaching the end of their junior eligibility who went the USHL/BCHL/Junior A route to maintain their eligibility, got NCAA commitments, and are going to get displaced by CHLers who have at least a decent alternative through the CHL scholarship programs. But things change and it's never going to work in everyone's favour.