Confirmed with Link: Casey Mittelstadt traded to COL for D Bo Byram. Straight up.

[Tijuana Donkey Show]

Good article by Shayna on Mitts' struggles this year and potential trade ideas.

I was among the vocal opponents of this trade, but as things are playing out it appears I'll have to eat some crow. Even if both players are traded again, it appears that Byram's value is trending much higher than Mitts.

I will admit that this is an insane take. But I would be curious of the cost?

He has played well before in Buffalo, granted under Granato, but what if you could swap Samuelson for Mittlestadt? It could get us out of his contract and give us the money down the line to spend on Byram?

 

[Fezzy126]

I will admit that this is an insane take. But I would be curious of the cost?

He has played well before in Buffalo, granted under Granato, but what if you could swap Samuelson for Mittlestadt? It could get us out of his contract and give us the money down the line to spend on Byram?

I don't think they'll be interested in bringing Mitts back, Shayna specifically points out consistency/sustainability concerns from the Sabres in the article, hence the reason for the trade in the first place:

Mittelstadt was living up to the hype when Buffalo traded him. He had emerged as a steady playmaker in its middle six and was hitting his stride on the scoresheet. But some sustainability questions may have given the Sabres’ front office pause ahead of his expiring contract. The Sabres had scored 3.66 goals per 60 in Mittelstadt’s five-on-five minutes in 2023-24, but their expected goal pace fell a full goal below that.

There is also the emphasis on higher tempo play, particularly down the middle, so it doesn't seem like they think Mitts fits in well here stylistically.

Honestly, he's starting to feel a little like bit Paul Stastny or the Strome brothers, guys that bounced around because they needed the right system and/or teammates to effectively drive play, but also guys that leave you feeling like you can do better.

Lastly, just a gut feel, but I don't think the Sabres are done with Sammy.

 

[Chainshot]

I will add my voice to the "that Mitts' ship has sailed". I don't think they are going to look at bringing him back.

 

[joshjull]

I don't think they'll be interested in bringing Mitts back, Shayna specifically points out consistency/sustainability concerns from the Sabres in the article, hence the reason for the trade in the first place:

I agree they’re not going to be interested in bringing Mitts back. But the consistency/sustainability “concerns” are a terrible take by Shayna. She didn’t do enough homework.

For starters, Mitts had almost two full seasons (22-23 he played 82gms/ in 23-24 he played 62gms) as a 60-ish point middle 6 center for us. His individual production rates were similar across both seasons. Shayna seems to have missed the 22-23 season in her analysis.

By any reasonable measure, almost two full seasons (144 games) seems like a pretty good demonstration of sustainability. Especially for a front office that handed out huge deals to guys who maintained their level of play for far fewer games before their deals.

Adams just didn’t want to keep Mitts because he felt he was all set with his top 6 centers. So he used to him to get a partner for Power. Unfortunately he was wrong on both counts.

 

[Fezzy126]

I agree they’re not going to be interested in bringing Mitts back. But the consistency/sustainability “concerns” are a terrible take by Shayna. She didn’t do enough homework.

For starters, Mitts had almost two full seasons (22-23 he played 82gms/ in 23-24 he played 62gms) as a 60-ish point middle 6 center for us. His individual production rates were similar across both seasons. Shayna seems to have missed the 22-23 season in her analysis.

By any reasonable measure, almost two full seasons (144 games) seems like a pretty good demonstration of sustainability. Especially for a front office that handed out huge deals to guys who maintained their level of play for far fewer games before their deals.

Adams just didn’t want to keep Mitts because he felt he was all set with his top 6 centers. So he used to him to get a partner for Power. Unfortunately he was wrong on both counts.

Regarding sustainability, Shayna specifically referred to the fact that Mitts' actual GF/60 outpaced his xGF/60. While she only noted 23-24, this was also true in 22-23, although not as large of a discrepancy.

Season	GP	GF/60	xGF/60
62	3.69	2.54
82	3.13	2.55

​

Do I agree with her point? Not sure, lots of good players consistently outpace their expected numbers, and I always thought Mitts was one of our best players on the ice during those years. But given the Sabres' emphasis on analytics in the front office, I can buy that it was their reasoning for moving on from Mitts.

But either way, I'm with Chain - that ship has sailed here. Now I just want Byram to be a good long term piece or get used to acquire one.

 

[joshjull]

Regarding sustainability, Shayna specifically referred to the fact that Mitts' actual GF/60 outpaced his xGF/60. While she only noted 23-24, this was also true in 22-23, although not as large of a discrepancy.

Season	GP	GF/60	xGF/60
62	3.69	2.54
82	3.13	2.55

​

Do I agree with her point? Not sure, lots of good players consistently outpace their expected numbers, and I always thought Mitts was one of our best players on the ice during those years.

I didn’t address her terrible statistical argument in my last post because I didn’t want to derail this thread with a rant. But since you brought them up……..

Those numbers represent what the TEAM did when Mitts was on the ice. It’s not an individual statistic. Mitts isn’t out performing anything. The TEAM when he’s on the ice is. I can’t stand the analytics community consistently using “On Ice” stats as if they’re individual ones. Theyre not and never will be.

Further deluding any value from these numbers is the fact they’re for all situations. Which would include 9 different game states (5v5, 6v5, 5v6, 5v4, 4v5, 4v4, 3v3, 5v3 and 3v5).

When I was talking about sustainability. I was talking about Mitts’s individual production.

Overall - (per 60mins)
22-23 -> 82gms 15g (.70) 44a (2.05) 59pts (2.74)
23-24 -> 62gms 14g (.74) 33a (1.75) 47pts (2.49)

5v5
22-23 -> 82gms 9g (.52) 30a (1.74) 39pts (2.26)
23-24 -> 62gms 10g (.67) 24a (1.61) 34pts (2.28)

Those look like pretty consistent and sustainable numbers.

But given the Sabres' emphasis on analytics in the front office, I can buy that it was their reasoning for moving on from Mitts.

I hope are front office analytics staff makes smarter use of data than Shayna did in that article.

That said, I feel pretty confident sustainability had very little, if anything, to do with the situation to trade Mitts. All we have to do is look at the Tage/Cozens deals.

Tage earned his huge deal based off one season that was excellent but very much an outlier to anything before it. Cozens earned his deal off basically 3-4months of never before seen production from him.

But either way, I'm with Chain - that ship has sailed here. Now I just want Byram to be a good long term piece or get used to acquire one.

I’m with both of you on this part.