LeBrun: Carolina has talked to Anaheim about Gibson; "...the price is going to have to come down..."

[FiveTacos]

The cap floor is actively an issue for about 5 teams. I’d describe 3 of those situations as the cap floor being 100% impactful on any decision made. It isn’t so much about this year, it’s about how you bring up a bunch of young skaters while staying cap compliant.

Columbus has an active waiver. They also have like 8 pending ufas. I would describe their situation as a cap floor emergency.

I believe you’re discounting what happens when the league expands - the available player pool is very stressed right now.

The cap floor teams are bidding on contracts (Trouba). They’re going to have to pay to correct their situations.

They’re all trying to pay as little as possible, but everybody knows and nobody throws anybody a life jacket in this league.

It's funny, everyone talks about cap dumps and cap crunches for teams at the top. But it matters at the bottom too in reverse. The simple outside view of the Ducks is that Gibson, Fowler, and Dumoulin should be moved ... but that's like $16m to replace for a cap floor team. You can't just easily find that, someone has to agree to trade someone to you. It's easy to say to a rebuilding team "just trade off your veterans" but it's not that simple.

 

[Vipers31]

Every teams offense has become about seam passes, it’s the hallmark of this generation. The recognition and execution of it is something these guys have been raised to spot/create/exploit when for a long time that was a euro specific trait. Every teams pp is designed to pull guys out of position to get a seam pass. If you’re telling us Gibson doesn’t have lateral mobility and is vulnerable to the one offensive trait everyone is striving for (and many are achieving) you’re telling me he is not a goalie anyone should be going after currently. You can say that’s a defensive problem but I don’t think there’s such thing as a defense that can completely negate cross ice seam passes. That’s why they work.

Sure, if you believe it’s a factor that you have too limited control over, then you’re most likely not a GM who will be interested. I don’t think that’s the case for all front offices - and I think it’s fair to suggest these things exist on a spectrum. Gibson isn’t late career Emery wrt a lack of lateral mobility, and I think it’s pretty clear good teams are better at preventing plays that „work“ than others. I wouldn’t question that he’s not going to be the best fit everywhere, but there aren’t any playoff teams that are similarly bad at this as the Ducks.

 

[tomd]

If you put a list together of contenders with leaky goaltending with the cap space to roll the dice on John Gibson it’s basically Colorado and they just went after Blackwood. I think a team like Carolina could get it done cheaper elsewhere.

I don't disagree based on the situation as it stands today although I would add Detroit to the list of teams that desperately need to address their goaltending. But I'm looking at the Gibson situation over the next year or so rather than where things stand today.

 

[bleedgreen]

Sure, if you believe it’s a factor that you have too limited control over, then you’re most likely not a GM who will be interested. I don’t think that’s the case for all front offices - and I think it’s fair to suggest these things exist on a spectrum. Gibson isn’t late career Emery wrt a lack of lateral mobility, and I think it’s pretty clear good teams are better at preventing plays that „work“ than others. I wouldn’t question that he’s not going to be the best fit everywhere, but there aren’t any playoff teams that are similarly bad at this as the Ducks.

True, but imo the Canes lost against the Rangers because Pesce was hurt and he was the best at stopping cross crease passes in tight, especially on the pk. Chatfield was overwhelmed on more than one key play that turned the tide trying to fill the role. Now Pesce is gone and the Canes aren’t as a great a defensive team, the system is based on keeping the puck out of the zone altogether and they are vulnerable when pinned. This would make Gibson hypothetically a poor choice for the Canes, despite them being a much better team than Anaheim. Just an interesting thought when considering Gibsons perceived weaknesses.

I don’t know about this for the Canes going in. They want bargains and try to outthink everyone and so far it’s burned them in net when it mattered most. Gibson is years away from when he was a higher end goalie so I don’t know that I believe this makes sense. Probably won’t matter because unless the Ducks are selling him off cheap it’s hard to believe we’d pay the price in the first place. I’m sure we’re calling trying to get the price down, but I don’t think we’ll flinch as long as we’re in the playoff hunt.

 

[Shane Diesel]

A) No, you didn’t. You highlighted a part of sentence and asked why you should care about my opinion.

Yes, asking if your opinion has any merit behind it. As in what are your bona fides and expertise on your resume when it comes to goaltender analysis. This isn't hard.

B) The numbers aren’t wrong. Superficial interpretations often are. The numbers don’t proclaim to accurately identify the overall quality of goaltenders in the league. GSAx and the likes contain more info than old stats, but they know their limitations.

That's literally the intention of GSAx, to be able to accurately compare goalies across teams with different defensive structures. Go look it up yourself if you don't believe me. You're criticizing something you don't even grasp intellectually.

See - now you’re asking to explain. I don’t have much time left, but Gibson is a good and somewhat extreme example of how statistically equal shots aren’t statistically equally impacting a goalie’s stats. Gibson‘s main weakness, compared to most modern goalies, is lateral mobility. He’s good (probably closer to elite) on first shots, great angles and reflexes, works well through traffic, good rebound control. But if your defense is prone to allowing cross-ice passes near the hashmarks or below, he’ll tend to leave more net exposed than most. Considering the (expected and factual) SV% on first shots is high to begin with, there’s not much ground you can statistically make up on these shots. If you’re playing on a team that struggles to prevent plays where you underperform the statistical expectation, that’s going to create a problem for your statistical bottom line - and the team’s success.

A team that feels confident in the defensive structure and their ability to defend those plays better and redirect the shot source, can absolutely see him as a guy who can help. Especially come playoff time, when teams tend to be less cute and default to taking clean shots more often than before.

Cross-ice passes are taken into account on Moneypuck's GSAx model. Gibson is under the same statistical restraints as everyone else being measured.

Oops.

This model predicts the probability of each shot being a goal. Factors such as the distance from the net, angle of the shot, type of shot, and what happened before the shot are key factors in the model. This model was built on over 50,000 goals and 800,000 shots in NHL regular season and playoff games

Variables In Shot Prediction Model:

1.) Shot Distance From Net
2.) Time Since Last Game Event
3.) Shot Type (Slap, Wrist, Backhand, etc)
4.) Speed From Previous Event
5.) Shot Angle
6.) East-West Location on Ice of Last Event Before the Shot
7.) If Rebound, difference in shot angle divided by time since last shot
8.) Last Event That Happened Before the Shot (Faceoff, Hit, etc)
9.) Other team's # of skaters on ice
10.) East-West Location on Ice of Shot
11.) Man Advantage Situation
12.) Time since current Powerplay started
13.) Distance From Previous Event
14.) North-South Location on Ice of Shot
15.) Shooting on Empty Net

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You don't even understand what you're trying to critique.