LeBrun: Carolina has talked to Anaheim about Gibson; "...the price is going to have to come down..."

[Vipers31]

Why does everyone want Gibson? I would want Dostal instead.

Why does everyone want [aging veteran who has at times been struggling and been made expendable by young stud at his position]? I would want [young stud who is a key part of the team’s future and absolutely not available] instead.

 

[Kalv]

Why does everyone want [aging veteran who has at times been struggling and been made expendable by young stud at his position]? I would want [young stud who is a key part of the team’s future and absolutely not available] instead.

Why would anyone would want Kapanen? I would want McDavid instead

 

[StlBigFly]

There is never an issue finding a contract to take on to get to the cap floor. The cap floor is never an issue.

The cap floor is actively an issue for about 5 teams. I’d describe 3 of those situations as the cap floor being 100% impactful on any decision made. It isn’t so much about this year, it’s about how you bring up a bunch of young skaters while staying cap compliant.

Columbus has an active waiver. They also have like 8 pending ufas. I would describe their situation as a cap floor emergency.

I believe you’re discounting what happens when the league expands - the available player pool is very stressed right now.

The cap floor teams are bidding on contracts (Trouba). They’re going to have to pay to correct their situations.

They’re all trying to pay as little as possible, but everybody knows and nobody throws anybody a life jacket in this league.

Serious question — how does Anaheim need Gibson? He turns 32 this summer, still has 3.5 years left at a sizable cap hit, hasn’t put up a strong season since before COVID. He can’t be part of the long term plans for the Ducks.

I understand and expect that Anaheim will want a meaningful future building block if they’re asked to pay salary on him going forward. But “we need this player” seems like a bit of a disingenuous stance, at least from the outside looking in.

Somebodies have to be paid enough that Anaheim has a legal roster. If they cost assets to bring in, as Trouba did, then any move they choose has a cost attached.

I think Gibson can move but I think Anaheim can look at all their options and set a price that makes going down any one path worthwhile. They have the flexibility to do stuff, but if they have multiple options where choosing one eliminates others then the price to do any of them becomes the price to do the one that benefits Anaheim the most.

For example, what if they’re looking to flip Trouba - then they lose his cap hit next year and moving Gibson becomes a challenge. So whatever they could get for Trouba - you gotta beat that to get them to choose to move Gibson. Otherwise they’ll just move Trouba and not move Gibson. You’d expect they will retain possibly to help themselves but that’s still cash they have to spend and has value in the decision making process.

Meeting the cap floor and building a strong room are concepts that do not work well together. You don’t want the absolute worst of the worst shipped in, and you don’t want to block the opportunities your young skaters need access to. Gibson and Trouba help Anaheim in this way.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Leave him alone, he thinks his spreadsheet makes him a goalie whisperer

Yes, I'm quite a bit better informed than you simply because I don't accept "trust me, bro" as a legitimate answer.

You all simply don't like the stats because they don't comport with your "expert" opinions. It's hilarious and so obviously transparent. And I anxiously await a laugh emoji as your rebuttal.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Reading that more charitably, the team trading for Gibson needs to give something Anaheim needs. What that is might be exactly be what you said. This depends on how much emphasis you put on "want him more" and ""Anaheim needs him." I didn't read that post as Anaheim really needs him.

As time goes on, what teams are willing to give will be less and less as her gets older and more expensive. There might be a sweet spot of cost left in contract if his play holds up that he hasn’t hit yet and they are maybe waiting for that. It’s a gamble.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

29:34

- Carolina’s rumored interest in Gibson dates back to the days of Murray and Waddell.
- Revisited last Summer; Friedman unsure of how close it was.
- “I think Gibson would like to move. I think Anaheim would like to move him.”
- There are few other teams in the goalie market. Carolina has options.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

John Gibson has been outplayed by his backups/tandem partners in ANA for years now.

IK the Ducks suck but he looks bad and out of position on a lot of the goals they give up.

No thx Jeff.

Dostal is ANA's guy and they are stuck with a 6.4M backup for a few years.

Why does everyone want Gibson? I would want Dostal instead.

Lol, no sheeeit

He's not available...

 

[BB79]

They already wasted the prime years of his career, might as well let him retire a Duck

 

[Vipers31]

Yes, I'm quite a bit better informed than you simply because I don't accept "trust me, bro" as a legitimate answer.

You all simply don't like the stats because they don't comport with your "expert" opinions. It's hilarious and so obviously transparent. And I anxiously await a laugh emoji as your rebuttal.

You’re not getting a laugh emoji from me, because it’s just boring. You’ll just have to continue to cope with having to live in a world in which goalie coaches, consultants and scouts exist and get employed by professional teams and aren’t being made expendable by excel jockeys who lack the fundamental understanding of the position to correctly interpret numbers.

 

[HuGort]

Probably a first if retained

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Canes are painfully patient when making moves like this. If Tulsky values Gibson as, for example, a 2nd + 6th, he will wait on this price all season and not go up to a 2nd + 5th. From what it seems like, he places a value on a player and if the cost to acquire that player is more than the value, he'll move on.

Gibson is an interesting one because no one knows how he'll look in a Canes jersey. He could be lights out, he could be mediocre. There is a fair amount of risk involved in acquiring a goalie with that caphit.

 

[Shane Diesel]

You’re not getting a laugh emoji from me, because it’s just boring. You’ll just have to continue to cope with having to live in a world in which goalie coaches, consultants and scouts exist and get employed by professional teams and aren’t being made expendable by excel jockeys who lack the fundamental understanding of the position to correctly interpret numbers.

And those positions have proven infallible in goaltender analysis, right?

By the way, you and your fellow Ducks fall into which category above? I mean since you're all experts this is your profession, correct?

You're definitely not another fan watching the games on the couch like me, spouting off nonsense disguised as an informed opinion.

 

[Vipers31]

And you fall into which category above?

Just a goalie, at this point. I’m not allergic to excel, so I appreciate those stats coloring some of the outlines of the pictures I’m seeing when I watch other goalies. Feel free to argue with others on a purely statistical or otherwise superficial level, but you should at leastleast understand the limitations of the statistical translations of the game and not imagine to be sitting on a much higher horse than it is.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Just a goalie, at this point. I’m not allergic to excel, so I appreciate those stats coloring some of the outlines of the pictures I’m seeing when I watch other goalies. Feel free to argue with others on a purely statistical or otherwise superficial level, but you should at leastleast understand the limitations of the statistical translations of the game and not imagine to be sitting on a much higher horse than it is.

So why would I take your opinion with any authority? Especially when it flies in the face of every objective piece of evidence out there?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Just continuing to make my point for me, a four page thread and over ten percent is one poster (not a fan of either team) begging people to believe him about his charts.

 

[Vipers31]

So why would I take your opinion with any authority?

I don’t give a crap whether you do, that’s beyond my sphere of influence. But you’re talking about an activity you know nothing about, and, realizing that, you use numbers as approximations to help you understand it. There’s nothing wrong with using that data in the first place, but if you don’t get how knowing stuff about the position might actually be meaningful, I don’t know what to tell you.

Also it’s not like I’m stating Gibson doesn’t have flaws, so my breakdowns of his game and his statistical output aren’t contradictory, but complementary. There’s a story there, one more complex than „he’s the worst lol“, and one that’s going to make it interesting whether a move happens, where it takes him, and how it works out. It’s not hard to imagine a front office seeing Gibson as a guy who can work well within their system, particularly come playoff-time.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Just continuing to make my point for me, a four page thread and over ten percent is one poster (not a fan of either team) begging people to believe him about his charts.

Use the ignore function.

I don’t give a crap whether you do, that’s beyond my sphere of influence. But you’re talking about an activity you know nothing about, and, realizing that, you use numbers as approximations to help you understand it. There’s nothing wrong with using that data in the first place, but if you don’t get how knowing stuff about the position might actually be meaningful, I don’t know what to tell you.

I'm confused. Your entire argument is that you know better than the numbers, but now you don't care if you can convince me or not. Very bizarre.

 

[Vipers31]

I'm confused. Your entire argument is that you know better than the numbers, but now you don't care if you can convince me or not. Very bizarre.

The idea that I, as a goalie, would just have to find it necessary to convince one random fan with zero knowledge of the position just reeks of an unhealthy dose narcissism on your end. You’re not the numbers‘ spokesperson, you’re just a guy not understanding what they’re telling you and what they don’t.

 

[Shane Diesel]

The idea that I, as a goalie, would just have to find it necessary to convince one random fan with zero knowledge of the position just reeks of an unhealthy dose narcissism on your end.

I asked you to explain to me why the numbers are wrong and why you posses expert knowledge on the position. You can't provide either yet accuse me of arrogance for using objective numbers. That's hilarious.

You’re not the numbers‘ spokesperson, you’re just a guy not understanding what they’re telling you and what they don’t.

Please explain the finer points of GSAx and SV% that I'm missing or am ignorant about.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Serious question — how does Anaheim need Gibson? He turns 32 this summer, still has 3.5 years left at a sizable cap hit, hasn’t put up a strong season since before COVID. He can’t be part of the long term plans for the Ducks.

I understand and expect that Anaheim will want a meaningful future building block if they’re asked to pay salary on him going forward. But “we need this player” seems like a bit of a disingenuous stance, at least from the outside looking in.

Just a small detailed correction. He has 2 1/2 years remaining (not 3 1/2) which is getting closer to being “easier to move”.

 

[Vipers31]

I asked you to explain to me why the numbers are wrong and why you posses expert knowledge on the position.

A) No, you didn’t. You highlighted a part of sentence and asked why you should care about my opinion.

B) The numbers aren’t wrong. Superficial interpretations often are. The numbers don’t proclaim to accurately identify the overall quality of goaltenders in the league. GSAx and the likes contain more info than old stats, but they know their limitations.

Explain the finer points of GSAx and SV% that I'm missing or am ignorant about.

See - now you’re asking to explain. I don’t have much time left, but Gibson is a good and somewhat extreme example of how statistically equal shots aren’t statistically equally impacting a goalie’s stats. Gibson‘s main weakness, compared to most modern goalies, is lateral mobility. He’s good (probably closer to elite) on first shots, great angles and reflexes, works well through traffic, good rebound control. But if your defense is prone to allowing cross-ice passes near the hashmarks or below, he’ll tend to leave more net exposed than most. Considering the (expected and factual) SV% on first shots is high to begin with, there’s not much ground you can statistically make up on these shots. If you’re playing on a team that struggles to prevent plays where you underperform the statistical expectation, that’s going to create a problem for your statistical bottom line - and the team’s success.

A team that feels confident in the defensive structure and their ability to defend those plays better and redirect the shot source, can absolutely see him as a guy who can help. Especially come playoff time, when teams tend to be less cute and default to taking clean shots more often than before.

 

[tomd]

I think most Anaheim fans are pretty realistic about the John Gibson situation. But it is fair to make the following points:
1. Gibson will not be a cap dump. Anaheim has no reason to do that.
2. Verbeek has a price set for Gibson. If a team wants him they will have to pay something close to that price.
3. No team is going to acquire Gibson without the belief that he can be a 1A/1B solution. The acquiring team should be willing to pay fair value for a 1A/1B goalie.
4. NHL GM's are less interested in Gibson's stats than fans are. The disaster in Anaheim is obvious to them.
5. His cap is both a problem and an opportunity. If Gibson rebounds his cap hit is a bargain. If not...

Bottom line for most Anaheim fans is that they realize it is going to be difficult to find a trade partner for Gibson. And no one has any idea what Verbeek's asking price is or what another team is willing to pay. I have no idea if or when he'll be traded (if ever). The likelihood is that he remains a Duck for the remainder of his contract. But it only takes one interested team to change that...

 

[bleedgreen]

A) No, you didn’t. You highlighted a part of sentence and asked why you should care about my opinion.

B) The numbers aren’t wrong. Superficial interpretations often are. The numbers don’t proclaim to accurately identify the overall quality of goaltenders in the league. GSAx and the likes contain more info than old stats, but they know their limitations.

See - now you’re asking to explain. I don’t have much time left, but Gibson is a good and somewhat extreme example of how statistically equal shots aren’t statistically equally impacting a goalie’s stats. Gibson‘s main weakness, compared to most modern goalies, is lateral mobility. He’s good (probably closer to elite) on first shots, great angles and reflexes, works well through traffic, good rebound control. But if your defense is prone to allowing cross-ice passes near the hashmarks or below, he’ll tend to leave more net exposed than most. Considering the (expected and factual) SV% on first shots is high to begin with, there’s not much ground you can statistically make up on these shots. If you’re playing on a team that struggles to prevent plays where you underperform the statistical expectation, that’s going to create a problem for your statistical bottom line - and the team’s success.

A team that feels confident in the defensive structure and their ability to defend those plays better and redirect the shot source, can absolutely see him as a guy who can help. Especially come playoff time, when teams tend to be less cute and default to taking clean shots more often than before.

Every teams offense has become about seam passes, it’s the hallmark of this generation. The recognition and execution of it is something these guys have been raised to spot/create/exploit when for a long time that was a euro specific trait. Every teams pp is designed to pull guys out of position to get a seam pass. If you’re telling us Gibson doesn’t have lateral mobility and is vulnerable to the one offensive trait everyone is striving for (and many are achieving) you’re telling me he is not a goalie anyone should be going after currently. You can say that’s a defensive problem but I don’t think there’s such thing as a defense that can completely negate cross ice seam passes. That’s why they work.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Haha. Why exactly do we need to sell low on Gibson?

This hasn’t been said for 4 or 5 years?

 

[Stephen]

All of this is true...until a team with SC aspirations needs a goalie and decides that Gibson is the goalie they need. Then it breaks down. Will that ever happen? TBD.

If you put a list together of contenders with leaky goaltending with the cap space to roll the dice on John Gibson it’s basically Colorado and they just went after Blackwood. I think a team like Carolina could get it done cheaper elsewhere.