Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[VaCaps Fan]

I am Phillips-ed out, I get that he is a shitty AHL plug already.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I watched his AHL highlights. He's a very small player who needs open ice and time and space to be effective. When he has those things he can create plays or put up a nice shot.

But he has to get those things.

He's 25 now and has very little NHL experience. At his age Martin St Louis wasn't tearing up the league, either. It took a few more years for him to blossom into the great player he became...in his 30s.

MSL defied all the odds. It's not something you bet on.

Is it possible Phillips finds some way to play a 2-way game and find those passing and scoring opportunities without being thrown around or knocked off the puck? Anything is possible. But it's not something we or Carbery should be counting on just by throwing the guy out there more.

He should probably study before and after film of MSL from his 20s vs 30s.

Does he have MSL‘s tree trunk legs? Guessing no since he’s 35lbs lighter….

I am Phillips-ed out, I get that he is a shitty AHL plug already.

careful, those are fighting words for a few posters!

 

[bacchist]

I watched his AHL highlights. He's a very small player who needs open ice and time and space to be effective. When he has those things he can create plays or put up a nice shot.

But he has to get those things.

He's 25 now and has very little NHL experience. At his age Martin St Louis wasn't tearing up the league, either. It took a few more years for him to blossom into the great player he became...in his 30s.

MSL defied all the odds. It's not something you bet on.

Is it possible Phillips finds some way to play a 2-way game and find those passing and scoring opportunities without being thrown around or knocked off the puck? Anything is possible. But it's not something we or Carbery should be counting on just by throwing the guy out there more.

He should probably study before and after film of MSL from his 20s vs 30s.

I feel like MSL had 20lbs on Phillips, easily. MSL was quite stout as I remember it. If he wants to get to that level he has to hit the gym and bulk up tbh

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Not just saying this because I think he’s washed but I was hoping that was it for Oshie. If there’s one player who should retire for health concerns it’s him. He’s had at least five documented concussions in the NHL by his own admission and I’m sure a few more that he picked along the way in college and before. His dad was diagnosed with a degenerative brain disease at age 47 and died at 56. Osh has a wife, four kids, and no worries about money for generations to come in his family. He will be 37 in two weeks. Just retire, dude.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Lapi down. What a shame. He has been amazing. Hopefully he is back up soon.

I don’t need fancy stats to show me otherwise that Phillips is nothing more than a 13th/extra and out-of-place fourth liner at best.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Not just saying this because I think he’s washed but I was hoping that was it for Oshie. If there’s one player who should retire for health concerns it’s him. He’s had at least five documented concussions in the NHL by his own admission and I’m sure a few more that he picked along the way in college and before. His dad was diagnosed with a degenerative brain disease at age 47 and died at 56. Osh has a wife, four kids, and no worries about money for generations to come in his family. He will be 37 in two weeks. Just retire, dude.

This. Oshie will always be a Caps GOAT but let’s move on to players who can still move up and down the ice.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Random thought. Would Lindy be our lone all star this season?

 

[bacchist]

Not just saying this because I think he’s washed but I was hoping that was it for Oshie. If there’s one player who should retire for health concerns it’s him. He’s had at least five documented concussions in the NHL by his own admission and I’m sure a few more that he picked along the way in college and before. His dad was diagnosed with a degenerative brain disease at age 47 and died at 56. Osh has a wife, four kids, and no worries about money for generations to come in his family. He will be 37 in two weeks. Just retire, dude.

I agree. Entirely separate from how it affects the Caps. Just on a human level, I'm concerned about his long term health. He's got nothing left to prove, and the rest of his life to enjoy.

 

[DWGie26]

I agree. Entirely separate from how it affects the Caps. Just on a human level, I'm concerned about his long term health. He's got nothing left to prove, and the rest of his life to enjoy.

I actually agree on Oshie. To me it is different that Backstrom. I understand why Backy wanted to give it a go and come back from his injury. It didn’t work but i have no issue with his desire and attempt. Concussions are real, long term impact injuries. His style of play, when he is effective, is taking the body and banging. He doesn’t play a fluid, fast game. He plays a banging style which just continues to put him at risk.

 

[HTFN]

Phillips starts more of his shifts on the fly than anyone on the team, and gets very few offensive zone starts compared to anyone outside of the 4th line.

Sounds like exactly what I said about how his defense is coming through transition and not zone time, and that his zone starts are strongly skewed towards making sure he doesn't start in the defensive zone when possible because he gets erased from cycle play. Makes him difficult to find space for even when he provides value, which is what was said. Edit: for clarity, I was only looking at d-zone shifts to make this point about deployment being in line with Milano and Kuznetsov, the idea being that even with defense as his best asset he's not being used in defensive deployments for a reason.

What are you talking about?

Oh no, quick, better find a new graph to post like it's the answer whenever someone talks about the previous graph... I'm talking about the chart from yesterday that started this, the one you guys were trying to make a big deal out of like it told the whole story? This one:

where a lot of "eh" players seem to contribute about as much to GAR and most on this list manage to out perform him offensively by a lot. So we've got a guy deployed largely in transition who can't create offense being praised as the solution for a team that is defending fine but can't create offense... make it make sense?

 

[HTFN]

Not just saying this because I think he’s washed but I was hoping that was it for Oshie. If there’s one player who should retire for health concerns it’s him. He’s had at least five documented concussions in the NHL by his own admission and I’m sure a few more that he picked along the way in college and before. His dad was diagnosed with a degenerative brain disease at age 47 and died at 56. Osh has a wife, four kids, and no worries about money for generations to come in his family. He will be 37 in two weeks. Just retire, dude.

Oshie needs to be done.

Like, not even counting the various brain trauma and how seriously important that should be for him there was a quote of his I can't find from last year where he was basically just like "sometimes you get up and you can walk, and sometimes you can't" and like... take care of yourself, my guy. You got a lot of kids to walk down aisles later in life and a lot of friendly golf to play, nobody wants you to go but like... might be time to get moving, right?

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Wasn’t there some interview from the last year when he came off kinda spacey?

 

[bacchist]

Oh no, quick, better find a new graph to post like it's the answer whenever someone talks about the previous graph... I'm talking about the chart from yesterday that started this, the one you guys were trying to make a big deal out of like it told the whole story? This one:
View attachment 780377

where a lot of "eh" players seem to contribute about as much to GAR and most on this list manage to out perform him offensively by a lot. So we've got a guy deployed largely in transition who can't create offense being praised as the solution for a team that is defending fine but can't create offense... make it make sense?

twabby posted 2 charts that showed the whole team. I posted one chart comparing the two players that included the data from both charts. It's dishonest to accuse me of misrepresenting the data while you're the one cherry picking the data that was posted. It's kind of baffling that you would resort to this in order to score cheap points on some obscure internet argument

 

[DWGie26]

I really enjoyed seeing Lapierre getting some games. But i am real happy that he is going back to Hershey. He needs to get faster and stronger on the puck. Needs to play a lot of meaningful minutes in all situations. He’ll get that chance in Hershey. I’d like to see him play on third line with Miro and Dube which will be a good skill prospect line.

 

[HTFN]

twabby posted 2 charts that showed the whole team. I posted one chart comparing the two players that included the data from both charts. It's dishonest to accuse me of misrepresenting the data while you're the one cherry picking the data that was posted. It's kind of baffling that you would resort to this in order to score cheap points on some obscure internet argument

How am I cherry picking a chart presented to me by reading the information presented and drawing a conclusion that you have not once bothered to explain your opposition to with actual words?

GAR either has value worth discussing or it doesn’t, so let’s discuss it instead of pretending this is about “internet points”. You’re going about this like a teenager.

 

[bacchist]

How am I cherry picking a chart I didn’t pick by reading the information presented to me and drawing a conclusion that you have not once bothered to explain your opposition to with actual words?

Emphasizing the chart that is more favorable to the argument you're trying to make while disregarding the one that shows it to be a laughably ridiculous argument is cherry picking.

I'm ignoring the fact that you also misrepresented the chart that you did use.

 

[HTFN]

Emphasizing the chart that is more favorable to the argument you're trying to make while disregarding the one that shows it to be a laughably ridiculous argument is cherry picking.

I'm ignoring the fact that you also misrepresented the chart that you did use.

lol all I said is “by this chart Malenstyn is displaying roughly equal value” and you brought in a new one with different metrics instead of explaining anything. Even in the chart you posted, with Corsi in it even though I thought people were past that, they STILL show that Phillips doesn’t produce shooting volume (read: offense) on the ice.

Elaborate on one, any of these things with some actual insight instead of just saying “nope, you did it wrong” and this will be a real conversation.

 

[DWGie26]

Carbs made some interesting comments in his post practice presser today. He was talking about analytics (which i love because no other coaches do it). But he remarked that it’s hard to look at analytics for 4th line because they don’t really represent the good work they do. Part of this is taking a large amount of defensive zone faceoffs and also playing against top lines.

His point (I think) which i agree with is analytics are important but they must be paired with the eye test and situational impact.

 

[bacchist]

lol all I said is “by this chart Malenstyn is displaying equal value” and you brought in a new one with different metrics instead of explaining anything. Even in the chart you posted, with Corsi in it even though I thought people were past that, they STILL show that Phillips doesn’t produce shooting volume (read: offense) on the ice.

Elaborate on one, any of these things with some actual insight instead of just saying “nope, you did it wrong” and this will be a real conversation.

The chart that you were referring to showed Phillips displaying more value than Malenstyn. That's why he was further up on the chart, right? It's showing better offensive results and much better defensive results.

The chart you want to disregard shows the same thing, only much more dramatically. It's obvious why you chose the one you did.

The chart I posted didn't have "different metrics". It showed the exact same metrics from both charts, though yes it did also show corsi (you got me!). If you don't know what you're looking at, you can just say so.

 

[YippieKaey]

Stats. It's cool stuff.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

This. Oshie will always be a Caps GOAT but let’s move on to players who can still move up and down the ice.

I don’t even care about his on ice performance. If he was pacing for 30+ goals I’d be saying the same thing. I lost my grandmother to Alzheimer’s and it’s a brutal disease. Had a friend who was a competitive triathlete who keeled over and died at 46 of a heart attack while on a bike ride and his dad died of a heart attack at age 47. Oshie has it in his family and there’s a history of early onset brain damage given how young his father was. He’s 10 years away from how old his dad was when he was diagnosed. It doesn’t matter how good of an athlete you are, you’re not beating your genetic makeup. Science always wins.

Hockey is a game and he’s accomplished everything he could have accomplished in it, I just don’t get why he would continue to put himself at risk when the risk/reward profile is skewed so one way.

 

[alphabetical]

Lapi down. What a shame. He has been amazing. Hopefully he is back up soon.

I don’t need fancy stats to show me otherwise that Phillips is nothing more than a 13th/extra and out-of-place fourth liner at best.

I'm glad lapi's going down. That kid needs more ice time he gets up here. He's looked pretty good when given a chance, but he'll develop more in hershey.

 

[twabby]

Carbs made some interesting comments in his post practice presser today. He was talking about analytics (which i love because no other coaches do it). But he remarked that it’s hard to look at analytics for 4th line because they don’t really represent the good work they do. Part of this is taking a large amount of defensive zone faceoffs and also playing against top lines.

His point (I think) which i agree with is analytics are important but they must be paired with the eye test and situational impact.

Situational impact and deployments are accounted for in GAR. For instance Dowd, NAK, and Malenstyn have ~38% xGF which is among the worst numbers in the NHL (all in the bottom 5% in the league).

However GAR rates them much more highly (all above the 30th percentile) precisely because it weighs the context in which these on-ice numbers were accumulated. Zone starts, QoC, QoT, score and game-state, etc. are all taken into account.

 

[HTFN]

The chart that you were referring to showed Phillips displaying more value than Malenstyn. That's why he was further up on the chart, right? It's showing better offensive results and much better defensive results.

The chart you want to disregard shows the same thing, only much more dramatically. It's obvious why you chose the one you did.

The chart I posted didn't have "different metrics". It showed the exact same metrics from both charts, though yes it did also show corsi (you got me!). If you don't know what you're looking at, you can just say so.

so your chart was just GAR and not different measurements?

Can you break down what the dark blue means and why Phillips’ numbered contribution there is smaller than, say, Malenstyn’s but his offense is better?

How are you going to condescend and be wrong at the same time?

 

[DWGie26]

Situational impact and deployments are accounted for in GAR. For instance Dowd, NAK, and Malenstyn have ~38% xGF which is among the worst numbers in the NHL (all in the bottom 5% in the league).

However GAR rates them much more highly (all above the 30th percentile) precisely because it weighs the context in which these on-ice numbers were accumulated. Zone starts, QoC, QoT, score and game-state, etc. are all taken into account.

Fair. But my point remains. Analytics are valuable. Interesting way to see some trends. But they must be paired with the eye test.

I like that Carbery talks about and cites analytics. They influence decisions along with what he sees and feels.