Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[Hivemind]

Why are we trading Dowd given he is on a sweet contract and how important he is to the team?

Because they can deal him for peak value, and utilize their ability to retain on that contract to drive that value up further. 50% retention on his contract brings it under league minimum, which makes him a very appealing asset to contenders near the salary cap, and with Toronto, Colorado, Tampa, and Vancouver already living on LTIR space - those salary cap steals are precisely the type of players they will covet. It means there's potential for Dowd, a 33 year-old 4th liner center, to maybe return a 1st round pick (or at least a 2nd+).

It's an opportunity for Washington to actually sell high on a player for once, and to do so on a player before they decline. At 33, Dowd isn't going to be good when the next version of the Capitals are competing.

People are fantasizing about getting a first for Dowd. I mean I’d do it for a first, buts it’s super duper highly unlikely.

They’re doing it for Lindgren too, who’s rocking a .908 save percentage and has never played more than 31 games in a season.

Dowd potentially returns a 1st because he's a very useful role player with a year remaining on his contract, and at 50% retention, that year remaining is underneath the league minimum cap hit. It's that retention that makes him uniquely valuable, as the contender gets not just this season, but next year as well, at a sub-minimum cap hit. That's why his value is peaking this year and he should be moved now, rather than waiting until he's on an expiring deal.

Lindgren doesn't get a 1st, period.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Because they can deal him for peak value, and utilize their ability to retain on that contract to drive that value up further. 50% retention on his contract brings it under league minimum, which makes him a very appealing asset to contenders near the salary cap, and with Toronto, Colorado, Tampa, and Vancouver already living on LTIR space - those salary cap steals are precisely the type of players they will covet. It means there's potential for Dowd, a 33 year-old 4th liner center, to maybe return a 1st round pick (or at least a 2nd+).

It's an opportunity for Washington to actually sell high on a player for once, and to do so on a player before they decline. At 33, Dowd isn't going to be good when the next version of the Capitals are competing.


Dowd potentially returns a 1st because he's a very useful role player with a year remaining on his contract, and at 50% retention, that year remaining is underneath the league minimum cap hit. It's that retention that makes him uniquely valuable, as the contender gets not just this season, but next year as well, at a sub-minimum cap hit. That's why his value is peaking this year and he should be moved now, rather than waiting until he's on an expiring deal.

Lindgren doesn't get a 1st, period.

No goalie returns a 1st rounder. The higher end ones that are worth a 1st rounder plus, don't get traded. But, Lindgren + Dowd most likely returns you a 1st plus more. Normally you would trade both players separately to different teams, but I think it's possible they could be both packaged together.

 

[Kuz]

No goalie returns a 1st rounder. The higher end ones that are worth a 1st rounder plus, don't get traded. But, Lindgren + Dowd most likely returns you a 1st plus more. Normally you would trade both players separately to different teams, but I think it's possible they could be both packaged together.

I could see him returning a 1st if he had kept up his play from earlier in the season considering his cap hit.

Just in the last 3 games he went from 0.915 save percentage and 7th in the league among goalies with over 20 games to 0.908 and 21st in the league.

He probably had peak value around january 15th where in 17 games he had 0.929 save percentage and was second in the league behind Hill. He have 0.873 after that in the next 11 games while Kuemper have 0.901 in the same period.

So he probably wont return much. Also had some injury issues that might have hit the game shape he was in earlier.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t think 3 games has tanked whatever value Lindgren has…

 

[Kuz]

I don’t think 3 games has tanked whatever value Lidgren has…

Maybe not, but the last 11 probably has. Right now he is statistically more around the middle of the pack while he was among the top goaltenders earlier in the season.

What team in need of a goalie would go for him?
For Toronto Woll have been solid and even Martin Jones have around the same save % and both have better goals save above expected according to moneypuck.

Hes down around the same save % as the Edmonton goalies aswell. They might give it a go, but Lindgren's recent form isnt promising.

Then you have NJD, but I doubt they will give much if they trade as they might not make the playoffs.

Thats pretty much the potential playoffs team where the talk around goalies have been. Dont see any of them give a 1st for Lindgren.

Lindgren doesnt have a record from earlier to lean on either as he really havent been playing NHL before he joined Caps.

 

[Misery74]

If we win tonight, we are 4 points out of third, with 2 games in hand.

Trade deadline one week from today. Not time to blow it up yet.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Maybe not, but the last 11 probably has. Right now he is statistically more around the middle of the pack while he was among the top goaltenders earlier in the season.

What team in need of a goalie would go for him?
For Toronto Woll have been solid and even Martin Jones have around the same save % and both have better goals save above expected according to moneypuck.

Hes down around the same save % as the Edmonton goalies aswell. They might give it a go, but Lindgren's recent form isnt promising.

Then you have NJD, but I doubt they will give much if they trade as they might not make the playoffs.

Thats pretty much the potential playoffs team where the talk around goalies have been. Dont see any of them give a 1st for Lindgren.

Lindgren doesnt have a record from earlier to lean on either as he really havent been playing NHL before he joined Caps.

I'm quite certain most professional NHL talent evaluators will recognize the travesty of D-core in front of Chucky the past 3 games. AA, Edmunds, and Bears...oh my.

 

[pman25]

So Philly, Arizona, Pittsburgh before the deadline. I could be made into a believer again with a W tonight

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Maybe not, but the last 11 probably has. Right now he is statistically more around the middle of the pack while he was among the top goaltenders earlier in the season.

What team in need of a goalie would go for him?
For Toronto Woll have been solid and even Martin Jones have around the same save % and both have better goals save above expected according to moneypuck.

Hes down around the same save % as the Edmonton goalies aswell. They might give it a go, but Lindgren's recent form isnt promising.

Then you have NJD, but I doubt they will give much if they trade as they might not make the playoffs.

Thats pretty much the potential playoffs team where the talk around goalies have been. Dont see any of them give a 1st for Lindgren.

Lindgren doesnt have a record from earlier to lean on either as he really havent been playing NHL before he joined Caps.

I’ve always thought the 1st for this guy or that talk was a bit overstated…..hopeful if you will.

 

[Misery74]

I'm quite certain most professional NHL talent evaluators will recognize the travesty of D-core in front of Chucky the past 3 games. AA, Edmunds, and Bears...oh my.

In all honesty, Ovechkins terrible defensive play lately has been more costly than the defense. Except Edmundson, he looks really bad to me.

 

[Brian23]

I hear you on that but if BMac keeps telling the core they are going to try to remain competitive it doesn’t make sense to me. I’m fine with rebuilding but it doesn’t line up to me. Let’s trade good players on great contracts doesn’t seem to mesh with that.

Bmac has had the team attempt to be competitive the last two years, and they've semi-shit the bed in both years.

He's letting the players make their bed, if they were winning games he'd probably be buying and not selling.

 

[barriers]

 

[Langway]

With retention at 50% there could be similarities to TOR trading for McCabe last deadline.

 

[Kazer]

With retention at 50% there could be similarities to TOR trading for McCabe last deadline.

It gets tricky with having only 3 salary retention slots though. Per Puckpedia, you can only retain on 3 contracts at once. So if the Caps retain on Jensen and Dowd, then they only have 1 slot entering 24-25 and 2 slots entering 25-26.

That would be alleviated by using a 3rd party to do the 50% retention, but it would also diminish the price.

 

[Brian23]

Jensen still has 2 more years left at a 4 million cap hit, there's no way they're retaining on him in a trade.

 

[Langway]

Jensen still has 2 more years left at a 4 million cap hit, there's no way they're retaining on him in a trade.

So did McCabe at the same AAV/term. The Caps aren't the Blackhawks but who are their big movable contracts where they may need to reserve slots for? Kuemper? The majority of their bad contracts will expire on LTIR and/or aren't movable. I wouldn't rule out retaining if the price is right. For something like a late first and Liljegren I think it's worthwhile value. Keeping them free to retain just to add some inconsequential late pick doesn't add much.

Jensen/Dowd/Kuemper are their oldest non-busted, non-Ovechkin players on the books beyond this season and the time may be now to move them. (Kuemper likely more in the off-season, assuming Lindgren stays.)

 

[Kazer]

So did McCabe at the same AAV/term. The Caps aren't the Blackhawks but who are their big movable contracts where they may need to reserve slots for? Kuemper? The majority of their bad contracts will expire on LTIR and/or aren't movable. I wouldn't rule out retaining if the price is right. For something like a late first and Liljegren I think it's worthwhile value. Keeping them free to retain just to add some inconsequential late pick doesn't add much.

Jensen/Dowd/Kuemper are their oldest non-busted, non-Ovechkin players on the books beyond this season and the time may be now to move them. (Kuemper likely more in the off-season, assuming Lindgren stays.)

I'm just pointing out it's a limiting factor. There are guys they could trade over the next year or two like Milano or TvR and then there are also guys they could trade at next year's deadline similar to Patches and Edmundson this year. If you don't have salary retention slots available, then you can't sell Milano at 50% off or a future Pacioretty at 50% off at the deadline next year.

If for instance the Caps trade and retain on Lindgren, Dowd, and Jensen, then they would have no ability to retain this year or next.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Hivemind]

I'm just pointing out it's a limiting factor. There are guys they could trade over the next year or two like Milano or TvR and then there are also guys they could trade at next year's deadline similar to Patches and Edmundson this year. If you don't have salary retention slots available, then you can't sell Milano at 50% off or a future Pacioretty at 50% off at the deadline next year.

If for instance the Caps trade and retain on Lindgren, Dowd, and Jensen, then they would have no ability to retain this year or next.

Further still, retention slots can be used to help other sets of teams facilitate trades, which typically brings in a mid or late round pick without giving up any players under contract.

 

[DukeDog13]

No goalie returns a 1st rounder. The higher end ones that are worth a 1st rounder plus, don't get traded. But, Lindgren + Dowd most likely returns you a 1st plus more. Normally you would trade both players separately to different teams, but I think it's possible they could be both packaged together.

Varly somehow returned TWO firsts. Still breaks my mind when I think about that.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Varly somehow returned TWO firsts. Still breaks my mind when I think about that.

We turned that Lottery hall into Erat

 

[DWGie26]

I have been long banged up here for saying we could get a first for Dowd, Lindgren, and Mantha.

On Dowd and Lindgren it is about low cap hit and term which makes them reachable for a first IMO. I’m also saying if it isn’t a first, they probably have more value to us staying than leaving.

And we definitely shouldn’t retain on either of those guys since their cap hits are low and term is this year and next. Mantha I would retain on. Maybe Patches. But i would rather take on veteran expiring contracts that need to be moved for others to come in. That is the retention i am looking for. Because then we also don’t have to gut Hershey. We have already taken their top center in Sgarbossa because there is no way we expose him to waivers now just to put on Hershey roster.

 

[HandsomeTom43]

I hope Dowd goes to a team I can cheer for. Hard to cheer for most past Caps at this point, because their teams are rivals.

 

[Hivemind]

Varly somehow returned TWO firsts. Still breaks my mind when I think about that.

Varlamov returned a 1st and a 2nd, not 2x 1sts.

Varlamov was a 23 year old recent 1st round pick who already had 19 playoff games under his belt, and looked very good in the limited action he had seen in the NHL. To use the power of hindsight here, there's a reason he's still in the NHL 13 years later and had two seasons in the top 5 in Vezina voting (including a 2nd place finish in 2014). He was also traded at the NHL draft, rather than the trade deadline. He was acquired to be a long-term solution in net for a team starting to turn around their rebuild.

Lindgren is a 30 year old undrafted journeyman who's finally locked down a gig as a #2 and has never appeared in a playoff game. He's not the type of goalie a playoff team targets as their "answer" in net to help them win a Cup.

There are definitely situations in which goalies can command significant returns. Varlamov is a perfect example of it, but not the only one. Cory Schneider was traded for the 9th overall pick. Sergei Bobrovsky fetched a 2nd plus 2x 4ths. Halak (fresh off that playoff run) returned Lars Eller (who was then a recent 13th overall pick who had already laced em up for 7 NHL games) and Ian Schultz (a 3rd round pick 2 years removed from the draft). But those are all situations in which these were young goalies who had already demonstrated NHL talent being acquired with the intention of them becoming a long-term starter for their new franchises. Charlie Lindgren aint that.

 

[DWGie26]

Varlamov returned a 1st and a 2nd, not 2x 1sts.

Varlamov was a 23 year old recent 1st round pick who already had 19 playoff games under his belt, and looked very good in the limited action he had seen in the NHL. To use the power of hindsight here, there's a reason he's still in the NHL 13 years later and had two seasons in the top 5 in Vezina voting (including a 2nd place finish in 2014). He was also traded at the NHL draft, rather than the trade deadline. He was acquired to be a long-term solution in net for a team starting to turn around their rebuild.

Lindgren is a 30 year old undrafted journeyman who's finally locked down a gig as a #2 and has never appeared in a playoff game. He's not the type of goalie a playoff team targets as their "answer" in net to help them win a Cup.

There are definitely situations in which goalies can command significant returns. Varlamov is a perfect example of it, but not the only one. Cory Schneider was traded for the 9th overall pick. Sergei Bobrovsky fetched a 2nd plus 2x 4ths. Halak (fresh off that playoff run) returned Lars Eller (who was then a recent 13th overall pick who had already laced em up for 7 NHL games) and Ian Schultz (a 3rd round pick 2 years removed from the draft). But those are all situations in which these were young goalies who had already demonstrated NHL talent being acquired with the intention of them becoming a long-term starter for their new franchises. Charlie Lindgren aint that.

Agree with all of this. His trade value is more about the market than it is about the player. If someone is really desperate for a goalie (1b) and there are limited options. We could return an overpay which i would take. for a second, probably not.