Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign F Ilya Mikheyev to 4-Year Deal ($4.75M AAV)

[thefeebster]

I read a comment about Mikheyev looking like the lovechild of Kaberle and Chara. Now i can't unsee it.

Glad to hear there is already a connection/friendship between him and Kuzmenko, plus that he recommended Vancouver.

-------

Now i've expressed how much i like the player, but it is a little bit rich for us on AAV and i would have wished we moved out some salary beforehand. But i don't think it'll be a crippling contract like some think.

The closest contract comparison is Lehkonen at 5x$4.5. Historically, he has been a 30 pt defensive player for the last 6 years who really did not convert much offensively in the playoffs prior to this season (a point Toronto fans dislike Mikheyev for). Yet Lehkonen's contract is universally lauded on the main forums as "well deserved" and generally a positive "nice" "great" signing. Lehkonen's shooting percentage was also a career high at 13.3% regular season with Col and 18.6% in the playoffs, but i don't see one comment about regression. Its a very strange contrast.

 

[Jyrki]

I read a comment about Mikheyev looking like the lovechild of Kaberle and Chara. Now i can't unsee it.

Glad to hear there is already a connection/friendship between him and Kuzmenko, plus that he recommended Vancouver.

-------

Now i've expressed how much i like the player, but it is a little bit rich for us on AAV. The closest contract comparison is Lehkonen at 5x$4.5. Historically, he has been a 30 pt defensive player for the last 6 years who really did not convert much offensively in the playoffs prior to this season (a point Toronto fans dislike Mikheyev for). Yet Lehkonen's contract is universally lauded on the main forums as "well deserved" and generally a positive "nice" "great" signing. Lehkonen's shooting percentage was also a career high at 13.3% regular season with Col and 18.6% in the playoffs, but i don't see one comment about regression. Its a very strange contrast.

Lehkonen was very clutch and helped his team win a Cup. No one minds paying a player based on that. The Avs are also a complete team so there's more value allocating cap to someone filling a defensive winger role.

OTOH we're still full of holes and you can't judge intangibles for someone surrounded by chokers so it's weird to overstretch like that.

 

[MS]

I read a comment about Mikheyev looking like the lovechild of Kaberle and Chara. Now i can't unsee it.

Glad to hear there is already a connection/friendship between him and Kuzmenko, plus that he recommended Vancouver.

-------

Now i've expressed how much i like the player, but it is a little bit rich for us on AAV and i would have wished we moved out some salary beforehand. But i don't think it'll be a crippling contract like some think.

The closest contract comparison is Lehkonen at 5x$4.5. Historically, he has been a 30 pt defensive player for the last 6 years who really did not convert much offensively in the playoffs prior to this season (a point Toronto fans dislike Mikheyev for). Yet Lehkonen's contract is universally lauded on the main forums as "well deserved" and generally a positive "nice" "great" signing. Lehkonen's shooting percentage was also a career high at 13.3% regular season with Col and 18.6% in the playoffs, but i don't see one comment about regression. Its a very strange contrast.

I suspect that if Mikheyev hadn't had freak injuries to shorten two of his seasons and played a shortened season in the other, the reception would be different. The default thing is 'LOL CAREER HIGH OF 32 POINTS'.

If he'd stayed healthy and played 82-game seasons, he would probably have two 45-50 point seasons on the board with one of those close to 30 goals.

Although (also weirdly) everyone here was cheering when we paid Garland $5 million as an RFA with a career high of 39 points.

 

[Vector]

I suspect that if Mikheyev hadn't had freak injuries to shorten two of his seasons and played a shortened season in the other, the reception would be different. The default thing is 'LOL CAREER HIGH OF 32 POINTS'.

If he'd stayed healthy and played 82-game seasons, he would probably have two 45-50 point seasons on the board with one of those close to 30 goals.

Although (also weirdly) everyone here was cheering when we paid Garland $5 million as an RFA with a career high of 39 points.

YYYOOOUUUTTTHHH

It's the same thing with Boeser. The player is younger so the numbers must go up.

 

[Hodgy]

YYYOOOUUUTTTHHH

It's the same thing with Boeser. The player is younger so the numbers must go up.

The numbers are going up, but unfortunately those numbers represent how much he is getting paid.

 

[Raistlin]

is it strange that I expect all three Russians to provide the same level of offense? interestingly they come from moscow/omsk/yakutsk.... basically west, central, and east Russia. Nothing alike.

Podkolzin: ~22g18a
Mikheyev: ~20g20a
Kuzmenko: ~20g20a

 

[VIPettersson]

The virtually unanimous reaction to this signing from Toronto fans on the main board is really weird and honestly I don't get it.

On paper his numbers are very good and he has some very dynamic qualities yet he's treated like a dime-a-dozen third liner that is only worth 3M or so, I'm pretty sure I even saw people on the main boards call him bland.

Easy. Everyone Leafs sign/have are gods. Everyone who leaves is trash. Leaf fan logic.

 

[Melvin]

Sure call him a "mystery box" if you want. There's plenty of people who have watched him play plenty of hockey in Toronto to form at least a preliminary opinion. When he pops out suddenly with 20 goals and a 14% shooting percentage, it looks like possible regression to me.

I also dislike buying depth players in free agency because you end up with an upside-down cap situation with overpaid middle-six forwards. Unfortunately, due to the fact our prospect pipeline is complete crap we can't staff our depth forwards through the prospect pool with guys on entry-level contracts. So you end up with contracts like this ... c'est la vie.

This is also broadly why this roster is doomed. You can't build a contender through free agency.

Again though what makes it “sudden?” If a guy plays 10 years in the nhl averaging 15 goals a year then suddenly pops 30, then, yeah, that’s sudden. When a guy scores 20 in his 3rd NHL season I don’t really get what is so “sudden” about it, especially if the first two were shortened for various reasons.

Again, you’re talking about a player who had played less than 100 games before last year and for some reason you’re acting like he had some well established level of performance. It’s weird.

 

[Raistlin]

I dont see many that complained when Cirelli and Nuke signed for 6+*8, now Im not making a direct comparison. They are elite for what they provide. Im really not expecting more than 40 points from IM if he provides elite speed in EV and PK and can occassionally pop off on the 2nd line and shorthanded. with the much larger management team, I am expecting them to develop better and can offset the 1 million overpay to players we sign as UFA in picks and college signings. you know? something JR did very well in PIT.

 

[VintageBure]

I don't hate the signing but I can't help to feel like we have to move at least one of our wings now. And Garland was easily our best 5 on 5 offensive play driver not named JT Miller last season.

 

[me2]

Is everyone already forgetting how well Miller has performed for Vancouver after being given a better opportunity on a new team and not being forced to be behind so many players? This is the same for Ilya, this guy has potential and given a better opportunity here in Vancouver and not behind so many players in Toronto, I think he will surprise a lot of posters. Speed size drives the net, what more can you ask for, more than Brock can do.

He's still not in the top 4 wingers here so he's still behind so many players.

 

[TruGr1t]

Again though what makes it “sudden?” If a guy plays 10 years in the nhl averaging 15 goals a year then suddenly pops 30, then, yeah, that’s sudden. When a guy scores 20 in his 3rd NHL season I don’t really get what is so “sudden” about it, especially if the first two were shortened for various reasons.

Again, you’re talking about a player who had played less than 100 games before last year and for some reason you’re acting like he had some well established level of performance. It’s weird.

So are you saying you think he has a sustainable shot at a 14% shooting percentage or what here, I’m not sure what your argument is at this point.

A lot of NHL insiders don’t think he’s a sustainable 20-goal scorer and is more of a third liner.

My only argument is I don’t like signing this type of player to premium UFA deals. I’d like to see them developed internally like we used to do.

 

[pitseleh]

So are you saying you think he has a sustainable shot at a 14% shooting percentage or what here, I’m not sure what your argument is at this point.

A lot of NHL insiders don’t think he’s a sustainable 20-goal scorer and is more of a third liner.

My only argument is I don’t like signing this type of player to premium UFA deals. I’d like to see them developed internally like we used to do.

I think you need to regress any single season shooting percentage heavily toward the mean, which I think is around 9-10%

Mikheyev has a career shooting percentage of 10% and averages 200 shots per 82 games. Those both seem reasonably sustainable and if so make him a 20 goal scorer. Looks like a reasonable baseline.

He’s done that playing tough minutes with relatively weak linemates too, so seems like there is more upside than downside in terms of scoring.

Agree that ideally this is the type of player you develop internally and get on a better value deal, though.

 

[biturbo19]

I'm still not entirely sure how i feel about this deal. Initial reaction is, "way too much for too long, for a guy who had a career year offensively on a stacked offensive team".

And i still feel like that's kind of true. I just don't have a lot of faith in Mikheyev producing more than 15G and 30pts over a season haul. He seems a lot like Jannik Hansen to me, but bigger. Great player to have, and even at an overpayment...still a useful contributor. That speed was clearly key here.


Maybe it makes more sense if there's still a trade to come? I don't see how there isn't a winger moving out.


But even then...There's still Nino Niederreiter sitting out there un-signed. He's not as young, and not quite as fast as Mikheyev...but to me, he seems like a much more direct JT Miller "substitute". He's more of a "power player" down low and around the net, doing what Miller does for Pettersson. And i can't imagine Nino is going to cost much more than Mikheyev at this point. Older, yes...but even at the same term...we've seen with Hansen himself, how these sort of "hustle but no flow" type players tend to age. It's not usually good. Their hustle and speed is the only thing that makes them useful. When that fades (and into the 27+ category that's a given), they just don't have that much left to give beyond "hard work" and "chasing the play".



I would've much rather seen them find a trade for a guy like Kapanen instead. Similarly useful as a "speedy, scores his own goals" guy...actually a lot better. But feels more reliable later into things. Even if it costs a pick or asset. Just get the better player imo.

 

[Melvin]

So are you saying you think he has a sustainable shot at a 14% shooting percentage or what here, I’m not sure what your argument is at this point.

A lot of NHL insiders don’t think he’s a sustainable 20-goal scorer and is more of a third liner.

My only argument is I don’t like signing this type of player to premium UFA deals. I’d like to see them developed internally like we used to do.

I'm saying that if a player shoots 6% in one season and 14% in the next season there is no reason to assume that it is the 14% season that is the "outlier." Obviously the most reasonable expectation would be somewhere in between, a perfectly league average 10% - but doing better than that wouldn't be some kind of shock. Players can have outlier *bad* seasons too. For all we know, it's the 2020-21 season that was the outlier, not last year. Or it could be that neither of them are. You can't talk about "outliers" when you only have two data points, by definition.

The point is, we don't really know. He's - again - a player with ~150 games of NHL experience, that is less than 2 full 82-game seasons! So talking about him like he is some veteran with an established level of performance where we should be able to discard last season's results and assume he'll "regress" back to his "normal level" doesn't make any sense. He doesn't *have* a "normal level" of performance yet. We don't know what his level is at. But generally speaking when it comes to projections, usually it's the most recent season that is the most telling, not the N-2 season. Saying that his stats from two years ago in his 39-game rookie season is what we should expect moreso than his most recent season of data doesn't really make any sense at all.

Yeah sure I'd rather develop players like Mikheyev internally too, but that's neither here nor there really. We dont' have any player like this in the system coming along any time soon and he looks to be a good fit with a very reasonable probability (IMO) of being worth his contract. And although I wouldn't write in sharpie that I expect him to score goals at the same rate as last year, there is a much, much higher chance of that happening and of him actually outperforming his contract than there has been of the usual UFA guys we've signed in recent years.

 

[TruGr1t]

I'm saying that if a player shoots 6% in one season and 14% in the next season there is no reason to assume that it is the 14% season that is the "outlier." Obviously the most reasonable expectation would be somewhere in between, a perfectly league average 10% - but doing better than that wouldn't be some kind of shock. Players can have outlier *bad* seasons too. For all we know, it's the 2020-21 season that was the outlier, not last year. Or it could be that neither of them are. You can't talk about "outliers" when you only have two data points, by definition.

The point is, we don't really know. He's - again - a player with ~150 games of NHL experience, that is less than 2 full 82-game seasons! So talking about him like he is some veteran with an established level of performance where we should be able to discard last season's results and assume he'll "regress" back to his "normal level" doesn't make any sense. He doesn't *have* a "normal level" of performance yet. We don't know what his level is at. But generally speaking when it comes to projections, usually it's the most recent season that is the most telling, not the N-2 season. Saying that his stats from two years ago in his 39-game rookie season is what we should expect moreso than his most recent season of data doesn't really make any sense at all.

Yeah sure I'd rather develop players like Mikheyev internally too, but that's neither here nor there really. We dont' have any player like this in the system coming along any time soon and he looks to be a good fit with a very reasonable probability (IMO) of being worth his contract. And although I wouldn't write in sharpie that I expect him to score goals at the same rate as last year, there is a much, much higher chance of that happening and of him actually outperforming his contract than there has been of the usual UFA guys we've signed in recent years.

I mean, all fair and good, but that doesn't change the fact he's 27 years old and has been playing for pro hockey for basically seven years. I feel like you're leaning too far the other way on the argument.

He's not a spring chicken here, so I don't know if the "you don't really know what you have" argument is really as relevant as some young guy on an expiring entry-level deal who's never really had a chance on a stacked team or something.

Maybe it works out, I just don't think it's worth the risk. We are not at a stage in this clubs' development to be tacking on expensive, even if necessary supporting pieces. I understand why he's an appealing piece given he addresses some needs, but is he the difference between us being a Cup contender, or a playoff team? No. He could, however, become a cap issue as we have to re-sign Pettersson and Horvat in the coming years and can't afford to have near $5M AAV third liners.

 

[Melvin]

I mean, all fair and good, but that doesn't change the fact he's 27 years old and has been playing for pro hockey for basically seven years. I feel like you're leaning too far the other way on the argument.

He's not a spring chicken here, so I don't know if the "you don't really know what you have" argument is really as relevant as some young guy on an expiring entry-level deal who's never really had a chance on a stacked team or something.

Maybe it works out, I just don't think it's worth the risk. We are not at a stage in this clubs' development to be tacking on expensive, even if necessary supporting pieces. I understand why he's an appealing piece given he addresses some needs, but is he the difference between us being a Cup contender, or a playoff team? No. He could, however, become a cap issue as we have to re-sign Pettersson and Horvat in the coming years and can't afford to have near $5M AAV third liners.

True regarding his age, but he was a consistent point producer in Russia too. Maybe it took him ~100 games to adjust to North America and now he's got the hang of things in the NHL and will be performing at this level for the next few years? Again it's tough to say, but I think it's a relatively small risk and worth the potential reward.

I think age is probably the most overrated statistic on this board, overall. I think a player's career trajectory, taking age into account, is much more important, and he's a young-ish* player whose play in the NHL seems to be trending in the right direction. That is the kind of player I'd want to take a chance on if I had to sign a UFA (which I agree, would be better to not ever have to sign UFA's and always have players in the system, but what can you do.)

* I mean, 27 makes him seem like an infant compared to all the guys that Benning signed every year. Mikeyev's contract will be up by the time he's the same age Eriksson was when we signed him.

 

[MS]

True regarding his age, but he was a consistent point producer in Russia too. Maybe it took him ~100 games to adjust to North America and now he's got the hang of things in the NHL and will be performing at this level for the next few years? Again it's tough to say, but I think it's a relatively small risk and worth the potential reward.

I think age is probably the most overrated statistic on this board, overall. I think a player's career trajectory, taking age into account, is much more important, and he's a young-ish* player whose play in the NHL seems to be trending in the right direction. That is the kind of player I'd want to take a chance on if I had to sign a UFA (which I agree, would be better to not ever have to sign UFA's and always have players in the system, but what can you do.)

* I mean, 27 makes him seem like an infant compared to all the guys that Benning signed every year. Mikeyev's contract will be up by the time he's the same age Eriksson was when we signed him.

The other thing is that his 6.5% shooting season came off a long recovery after a serious skate cut to his wrist.

It's entirely possible that the injury made that season an outlier and then once he got a feel for his shot again his sh% went up considerably.

 

[Hansen]

I am legally obligated to support workhorse gritty fast defensive wingers like Jannik Hansen blindly and wholeheartedly so please do not ask me about the cap hit ever again

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

It looks like he is a play driver on the line he is on, Garland is anther play driver along with Miller. Pettersson could be there next year as well, it looks like they’ll have one almost on each line and Kuzmenko is a total wildcard at the moment. I wouldn’t mind if we stuck with what we have as I think Demko makes up for a weaker Defence, score our way out of things and rely on having the puck more than the other team. The depth at forward is pretty deep currently and Miller would be the only one on the block for me to help the RHD problem we have, the rest id wait until the trade deadline to asses what we could get rid of for Picks (Pearson/Dickinson/Poolman/Schenn) and hope a couple of them have good years.

 

[CherryToke]

Although (also weirdly) everyone here was cheering when we paid Garland $5 million as an RFA with a career high of 39 points.

Career high of .795 PPG. Aka better scoring rate than any season from Bo Horvat. Better defensively too.

 

[F A N]

Career high of .795 PPG. Aka better scoring rate than any season from Bo Horvat. Better defensively too.

Yep. Garland was putting up terrific ES numbers for two straight seasons. Plus he was 25 and not soon to be 28.

 

[MS]

Career high of .795 PPG. Aka better scoring rate than any season from Bo Horvat. Better defensively too.

Conor Garland is not great defensively. He has good defensive numbers on a useless JFresh chart because he’s playing incredibly soft offensive minutes. Bo Horvat would look like a defensive god in those minutes.

Yep. Garland was putting up terrific ES numbers for two straight seasons. Plus he was 25 and not soon to be 28.

Garlands career ES numbers over 3 seasons were worse than Mikheyev’s in 3 years. By quite a lot.

Garland was an RFA so he had less leverage.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Mikheyev's career averages (on a per game basis) are 20 goals & 40 points over 82 games. Considering the other things he brings a contract is the 4's is perfectly fine imo.

The question is whether you have faith he can continue to be that player, or not.

He's signed for only 4 years & right through his prime age-wise. I don't hate the bet.

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

JFresh chart because he’s playing incredibly soft offensive minutes.

Those charts litterally account for Quality of team mates and competition, but go off.