Canucks News, Rumours, & Fantasy GM

[JohnHodgson]

Two possibilities:

1) the problem was injuries this year so after a healthy offseason he starts off like he did in year 1 with us
2) his body is ruined so he sucks again next year like he did this year and will never improve

I kind of think buying him out is lose lose:

Option 1 is better than a buyout. He only needs to be a ~2M dman to not be worth buying out.

Option 2 would surely mean he's on the verge of retiring to ltir.

I can’t see OEL retiring or giving up on his career when he’s only 32.

I don’t think it’s a good organizational strategy to “hope” he LTIRes.

 

[sting101]

Myers had a better +/- than OEL last year.

He was +15 whereas OEL was +5. Not a great indicator but just to give some context.

Don't think it's a fair assessment to say OEL carried Myers at all.

Myers is playing fine recently on his own... paired next to Briesbois (a #9/10 Dman).

I don't really understand why you're upset. You're basically saying "THERES UNKNOWN FACTORS OUT THERE THAT WE DONT KNOW TO MAKE THIS DECISION". I agree with you. I don't know said factors so I can't comment on it.

My personal view and opinion is only derived from watching him play this year - he was awful. No way to beat around the bush. He was great to start last year but tailed off in the second half. His last 90 games or so as a Canuck has been a poor to brutal.

There is a large group of posters who watch every Canucks game and follow those up with summaries on how players play game in game out who that would likely agree with what i'm about to say

It's pretty safe to say that Tyler Myers didn't just pull himself out of being a wildly enigmatic 3rd pair D into the role he played and play well without someone who could prop up his play. Using their plus minuses is not a great indicator of much either.

Myers has been a tire fire most of this season. Using his recent play is not a indicator of OEL dragging him down. Tocchet has finally got the team playing within a system and reducing gaps which has made it easier for everyone to get better results. Demko coming back and good golatending from Silovs after his first game add context to the situation.

I'm not upset at all just would like for you to take a breath and leave out the ego that your talking to group of uneducated posters. Facts are facts and we simply are only speculating if we conclude that OEL just doesn't have it vs he's been in rough physical condition and needs to get healthy and the likelihood of that recovery.

As far as what happens i highly doubt after Kevin Epp brokered this deal with Aquilini involved that they are just gonna buy him out after such a horrible set of circumstances this season and at such a massive cost and term to do it without some awfully damning conclusions to OELs character.

I also am happy to hear Tocchet and Allvin throwing warning shots out to the country clubbers that if they are not buying in then they will be punted. It sucks that in the entire era of JB and now for 4-5 yrs after he is gone we still be trying to rationalize how to get his bad cap off the team. I would really like it if it's not 8 yrs

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

With the correct rehab, I think that there's a better chance of OEL being a useful top 4 D man next season, than being bought out...Tocchet has kicked up the core players (some of whom were struggling like Miller) a notch or two.

Having said that..I believe that he will be bought out..its inevitable..but not for the 2023-24 season.

 

[Nucker101]

reminder that there is an ignore button bros and buds (condescendingly because i am smarter than you all)

I like viewing opposing opinions and even debating them(to an extent).

Echo chambers are boring.

 

[sting101]

Do you have a counter position where you say how good you predict OEL to be next season?

I would expect if he's healthy to be roughly the same player as year 1. If Hronek is as good as our front office seems to think then he could have better numbers and shot share results.

He's never really been a shut down D and it made it an odd acquisition from the outset playing behind Hughes for such a huge amount of cap allocation.

We will never be happy with his cap hit vs his play that is for certain

 

[Aphid Attraction]

I would expect if he's healthy to be roughly the same player as year 1. If Hronek is as good as our front office seems to think then he could have better numbers and shot share results.

He's never really been a shut down D and it made it an odd acquisition from the outset playing behind Hughes for such a huge amount of cap allocation.

We will never be happy with his cap hit vs his play that is for certain

Two possibilities:

1) the problem was injuries this year so after a healthy offseason he starts off like he did in year 1 with us
2) his body is ruined so he sucks again next year like he did this year and will never improve

I kind of think buying him out is lose lose:

Option 1 is better than a buyout. He only needs to be a ~2M dman to not be worth buying out.

Option 2 would surely mean he's on the verge of retiring to ltir.

If we assume the cap starts to meet the same inflation as the rest of the world at some stage in the next 4 years (taking into account it might not this season due to that media contract failure)

And we look at oels aav as a percentage of the cap not dollars…

I think if he is brought out, we can replace him for the same total aav (percentage of cap) with a player that is better each year for the next four years.

Considering at very best case we get oel at the same level as his first year, which is hoping for the world imo. He is most likely a player that is declining and had a one year bump, I mean thats the smart money anyway.

Then there is the 2.5 million cap penalty for a couple of seasons, which to me is no problem at all taking into account the cap will rise and we just need one defender to out play his cap hit as a top 4 D to make up for it. Such as a young player or a luke scheen type.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

Ltir has some drawbacks to, its not just free caspace.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

With the correct rehab, I think that there's a better chance of OEL being a useful top 4 D man next season, than being bought out...Tocchet has kicked up the core players (some of whom were struggling like Miller) a notch or two.

Having said that..I believe that he will be bought out..its inevitable..but not for the 2023-24 season.

The buyout looses its advantages (imo anyway) after next season’s off season. So if he plays better next season, then he will be back again and then I could see them ultimately not buying him out.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The buyout looses its advantages (imo anyway) after next season’s off season. So if he plays better next season, then he will be back again and then I could see them ultimately not buying him out.

Do you see him having a bounce back..or further regressing..?

 

[mriswith]

I can’t see OEL retiring or giving up on his career when he’s only 32.

I don’t think it’s a good organizational strategy to “hope” he LTIRes.

It was about 18 months of LTIR for Seabrook before he gave up. I'd expect management to be in contact with him and feeling the situation out, landing somewhere in the middle between hope and certainty.

A fractured foot and an ankle sprain don't really scream retirement, but in the same vein they don't really indicate that he'll be this bad against next year. If that's really all it was this year, a buyout seems extreme.

He just has be to a bottom pairing guy and played accordingly to be better than a buyout.

 

[Gstank]

I think OEL is brought back next season. they only way I see him being bought out is if we cant move Boeser/Garland and Myers/Pearson/Poolman.

There isnt really any reason to not see if he bounces back and I think even OEL knows that if he is boughtout he is basically done playing in the NHL

 

[Aphid Attraction]

Do you see him having a bounce back..or further regressing..?

Next season I would not be surprised to see him playing at top 4 level, especially with a good d partner. but I wouldn’t put my money on a 32 year old oel being much more then this season.

And over the next 4 years he will definitely regress each season (thats my prediction) even if this season was a product of injury and he bounces back next season.

 

[RandV]

Maybe cancer isn't the right term for OEL, but it's certainly not ideal to have one of the highest-paid members of the team provide so little value. From a human standpoint if you are working next to a guy making 6 or 7 times what he should be there's sure to be some resentment in the building.

I don't know what an NHL locker room is like but it's a weird union environment, not a classroom or an office. Every player is going to be gunning for that big UFA paycheque that their body probably isn't going to be able to cash. Every player also starts out on an ELC making relative peanuts compared to their value some time.

To put it in context is JT Miller going to be pissed at OEL for not carrying his weight per salary, on an 8 year deal he 'earned', when Miller just signed the same type of deal and that could be him in a few years? I doubt it.

 

[Horvat1C]

With OEL and the overall defense, I expect us to sign a LHD partner for Hronek to push OEL down to the 3rd pair. Signals point to Gavrikov with the Milstein connection with Graves as a backup option. I also expect Myers will be dumped.

With that in mind, next year OEL will in all likelihood be fully healthy after an extended offseason to recover, playing with a better partner for most of the year (Schenn if re-signed, Juulsen, Livingston, etc.) and won't be relied on as much to play important minutes. All that points towards a bounce back year where he is pretty effective.

 

[andora]

With OEL and the overall defense, I expect us to sign a LHD partner for Hronek to push OEL down to the 3rd pair. Signals point to Gavrikov with the Milstein connection with Graves as a backup option. I also expect Myers will be dumped.

With that in mind, next year OEL will in all likelihood be fully healthy after an extended offseason to recover, playing with a better partner for most of the year (Schenn if re-signed, Juulsen, Livingston, etc.) and won't be relied on as much to play important minutes. All that points towards a bounce back year where he is pretty effective.

I think in that case he plays with hronek

Juuslen remains a backup player

 

[m9]

I don't know what an NHL locker room is like but it's a weird union environment, not a classroom or an office. Every player is going to be gunning for that big UFA paycheque that their body probably isn't going to be able to cash. Every player also starts out on an ELC making relative peanuts compared to their value some time.

To put it in context is JT Miller going to be pissed at OEL for not carrying his weight per salary, on an 8 year deal he 'earned', when Miller just signed the same type of deal and that could be him in a few years? I doubt it.

I disagree, at least to some extent.

For one, some union environments have resentment from new employees who think the old guard isn't pulling their weight while making more money than them.

I also think there's a segment of hockey players who are very competitive and understand the salary cap enough to know that having a big ticket tied to a non-performing player hurts their chances to succeed.

It's going to come down to each player. If it's a well-liked guy, it will be fine. If teammates don't really like you already, this will make it worse.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

There is a large group of posters who watch every Canucks game and follow those up with summaries on how players play game in game out who that would likely agree with what i'm about to say

It's pretty safe to say that Tyler Myers didn't just pull himself out of being a wildly enigmatic 3rd pair D into the role he played and play well without someone who could prop up his play. Using their plus minuses is not a great indicator of much either.

Myers has been a tire fire most of this season. Using his recent play is not a indicator of OEL dragging him down. Tocchet has finally got the team playing within a system and reducing gaps which has made it easier for everyone to get better results. Demko coming back and good golatending from Silovs after his first game add context to the situation.

I'm not upset at all just would like for you to take a breath and leave out the ego that your talking to group of uneducated posters. Facts are facts and we simply are only speculating if we conclude that OEL just doesn't have it vs he's been in rough physical condition and needs to get healthy and the likelihood of that recovery.

As far as what happens i highly doubt after Kevin Epp brokered this deal with Aquilini involved that they are just gonna buy him out after such a horrible set of circumstances this season and at such a massive cost and term to do it without some awfully damning conclusions to OELs character.

I also am happy to hear Tocchet and Allvin throwing warning shots out to the country clubbers that if they are not buying in then they will be punted. It sucks that in the entire era of JB and now for 4-5 yrs after he is gone we still be trying to rationalize how to get his bad cap off the team. I would really like it if it's not 8 yrs

Yeah, OEL absolutely carried Myers last year.

OEL basically deployed Myers (who lacks hockey sense and seems to panic easily) and gave him a solid base off of which to read.

OEL was also placed in a position that doesn't necessarily play to his primary strengths (i.e. he's theoretically an offensive D who was tasked with facing top lines with an athletic phenom with zero hockey sense as his partner) and considering circumstances, he knocked it out of the park.

Count me in as one who wants to see if OEL can play the Maata role with Hronek before doing anything drastic.

This board is so hyper-reactive. Yes OEL had a horrendous year, but let's see if it was just injuries and perhaps being sensitive to how much of a shitshow our team/leadership was this season.

Panicking and buying him out to 'get rid of the Benning stench" is just emotionally driven nonsense at this point. Let it play out, save that bullet for as long as you can.

I do also think that if OEL doesn't get his game back together he will likely be LTIRetired within a couple of years anyway.

 

[Coffee]

reminder that there is an ignore button bros and buds (condescendingly because i am smarter than you all)

We are all Canucks fans at the end of the day.

SCREW the ignore button

 

[andora]

.

Count me in as one who wants to see if OEL can play the Maata role with Hronek before doing anything drastic.
.

Amen

 

[Peter Griffin]

Has Aqualini agreed to buyout anyone close to the $20M over the next 8 years it would cost to buy him out this offseason? That’s a lot of money to pay for someone to go away. I think him being bought out this offseason is on the same fantasy level as him LTIR’ing. He’ll be trotted out again next season as Hronek’s partner no doubt.

 

[ziploc]

Has Aqualini agreed to buyout anyone close to the $20M over the next 8 years it would cost to buy him out this offseason? That’s a lot of money to pay for someone to go away. I think him being bought out this offseason is on the same fantasy level as him LTIR’ing. He’ll be trotted out again next season as Hronek’s partner no doubt.

If that is the case I am not sure there is a point in signing Gavrikov, who would then be filling the role of bottom pairing LD. Wolanin it seems could do that for a lot cheaper, and we still need to fill in the right side of the defence.

 

[m9]

Has Aqualini agreed to buyout anyone close to the $20M over the next 8 years it would cost to buy him out this offseason? That’s a lot of money to pay for someone to go away. I think him being bought out this offseason is on the same fantasy level as him LTIR’ing. He’ll be trotted out again next season as Hronek’s partner no doubt.

Not $20 million in buyouts, but the Booth & Ballard compliance buyouts were both decent in terms of real money spent. There's no indication that Aquilini won't spend money to improve the team, so if OEL is back it would be on the basis that they think he can be a productive member of the team.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Not $20 million in buyouts, but the Booth & Ballard compliance buyouts were both decent in terms of real money spent. There's no indication that Aquilini won't spend money to improve the team, so if OEL is back it would be on the basis that they think he can be a productive member of the team.

There was only $4.75M and $3M left on both of those deals and they were bought out in different offseasons. There’s $29M still left on OEL’s contract, not really the same at all.

 

[m9]

There was only $4.75M and $3M left on both of those deals and they were bought out in different offseasons. There’s $29M still left on OEL’s contract, not really the same at all.

True.

I posted the list a couple pages back of the guys they have bought out other than Ballard/Booth. All were in the last year of their deal and nobody close to OEL. So to answer your original question - no.

Would still be surprised if they buy out OEL. In the last 15 years they've bought out 4 guys (non-compliance) and all were going into the last year of their deal. Even in that four you've got:

1. Braden Holtby - Oddly structured pandemic contract where they saved a ton of cash
2. Jake Virtanen - Probable rapist
3. Ryan Spooner - Team took him back as a salary dump and likely knew they were buying him out
4. Chris Higgins - Couldn't play in the NHL anymore

Takes a ton to get them to buy someone out, and I'm not convinced they are there yet with OEL.

 

[Fatass]

Has Aqualini agreed to buyout anyone close to the $20M over the next 8 years it would cost to buy him out this offseason? That’s a lot of money to pay for someone to go away. I think him being bought out this offseason is on the same fantasy level as him LTIR’ing. He’ll be trotted out again next season as Hronek’s partner no doubt.

If Aquilini wants a winning club then he needs to pay for the buyout of OEL. Easiest way to clear 7 mil off the cap for next season and replacing the minutes of the player with a league minimum salary.