Canucks News, Rumours, & Fantasy GM | Part 2

[MS]

You pay the top 10 players on your roster and squeeze the bottom 10 or 12 for every nickel. Bear is not in the top 10 players on this roster, or shouldn't be.

If he won't accept a deal at $2 million or thereabouts, bye.

This player needed retention to be traded for a 5th round pick five months ago. He hasn't done anything to be getting a 50% raise.

 

[credulous]

the canucks right side depth without bear is hronek, myers, burroughs and then woo, johansson and mcward. there's probably not any help coming in free agency

i'm all for moving on from bear because i don't think he's a legit top 4 defender but he's definitely the second best right handed defender on the roster or in the system. he's getting signed

 

[racerjoe]

walman is 27, cernak is 26, anderson is 23, siegenthaler is 24, ristolainen is 28

if you don't like those comparables there's also zub (26, 4.6m, less minutes and points than bear), fabbro (24, 2.5m, less minutes and points than bear), samuelsson (23, ~4.3m, more minutes but less points than bear), nic hague (23, ~2.2m, less minutes and points than bear), jacob middleton (26, 2.45m, more minutes but less points than bear)

all those deals were signed post trade deadline 2022 so they're all recent

the only "good" comparables for bear from a canucks perspective are middleton and hague and neither have nearly the nhl track record bear has. middleton only had a single nhl season under his belt and hague was a 6th/7th dman when he signed his contract

apparently dhaliwall reported today bear is looking for high 3s for anything other than a one year deal. i think that's right in line with what he can expect in arb

Yeah like I said I don't know too much about the process, and haven't looked for comparables.

Just saw that those guys didn't match what you said.

I would still play hardball if I was the Canucks, walk away if you need to. Bear has more to lose.

That comes from someone who was super high on him and wanted him for a long while.

 

[credulous]

I would still play hardball if I was the Canucks, walk away if you need to. Bear has more to lose.

That comes from someone who was super high on him and wanted him for a long while.

the problem with playing hardball is that bear has arbitration rights so he can force the canucks into the process. once he does that the canucks have no option but to sign bear to whatever the arbitrator decides (unless it's over 4.6m, which it almost definitely won't be). the only way out for the canucks is to trade bear to a team willing to sign him before arbitration for whatever he wants or to non-qualify him and let him go to ufa

 

[racerjoe]

the problem with playing hardball is that bear has arbitration rights so he can force the canucks into the process. once he does that the canucks have no option but to sign bear to whatever the arbitrator decides (unless it's over 4.6m, which it almost definitely won't be). the only way out for the canucks is to trade bear to a team willing to sign him before arbitration for whatever he wants or to non-qualify him and let him go to ufa

To me hardball would be to not qualify him. As has been said he was being scratched a little while ago, has finished poorly, and he really wanted to play here. He can try and sign a higher money deal elsewhere and risk being in a bad situation again.

 

[credulous]

To me hardball would be to not qualify him. As has been said he was being scratched a little while ago, has finished poorly, and he really wanted to play here. He can try and sign a higher money deal elsewhere and risk being in a bad situation again.

that's a reasonable position to take. i just don't think management will feel the same

 

[ohnoeszz]

That's the thing - don't qualify Bear. There's not an NHL team that would or should pay him 3 mil.

I would much rather retain Burroughs who likely comes in under 1.5 mil and plays a calmer, meaner, more defensive and supportive game.

 

[God]

If Bear played like he did in the first ~20 games here, 3m would be on the high end but still ok. Now that the team has Hronek and he's been average to bad since the personal misfortunes and jaw injury... no shot.

 

[TryamkinPleaseReturn]

I kind of like Bear but I wouldn't even offer 2m. Offer him a 1 year show-me deal, 1-1.5m, let him earn his payday. If he wants to chase more money with another team let him walk. It's essential that our support pieces to take discounts to make the cap work for the team.

 

[LemonSauceD]

OEL - Buy him out, trade his ass 50% retained, just get him off the team.
Myers - Trade his ass
Bear - Going to ask for too much, release him.
Wolanin - 6th/7th defenseman
Hirose - easily makes the team next year, can see him in the top 4
Rathbone - Career AHL dman, can be depth call up
Juulsen - Same as above
Brisebois - 6th/7th defenseman
Burroughs - re sign him for organizational depth
Dermott - Release him.
McWard - Needs a year in the AHL

 

[Vector]

Bear’s entire value is wrapped up in providing decent play on a very good contract. As soon as he wants over 2m his value is shot because you’re no longer working with a surplus.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Bear has basically had a career resurgence in Vancouver playing alongside Quinn Hughes. Luke Schenn also had a career resurgence playing alongside Quinn. There’s a pattern here. Hronek will hopefully anchor his own pairing next season so that leaves Bear to play alongside Quinn again or on the bottom pairing with Wolanin/Hirose. Absolute max I’d give Bear is $2.5M otherwise I sign a cheaper bottom pairing guy and funnel more money into Hronek or Hughes’ partner.

 

[alternate]

How do Bear's numbers with Hughes compare to Juulsen and Burroughs numbers with Hughes? If there's not a significant spike for Bear, which my eye test expects there isn't, I probably don't qualify him.

If he's going to be a 3rd pairing guy, I'd rather let Woo, Johansson, Juulsen, maybe Burroughs or a Burroughs type added a few days into FA compete in camp. Don't think any of these guys, including Bear, really move the needle with Hughes -- Hughes is good enough to carry any of them to decent results -- so don't see the point of spending extra for whatever minimal improvement you might see having Bear on the third pairing over another option.

Especially if we can get a pick for Bear's rights. If he's back cheap, fine. But don't see him being worth 2-3 times as much as other 3rd pairing RSD already under contract.

 

[Nucker42]

OEL - Buy him out, trade his ass 50% retained, just get him off the team.
Myers - Trade his ass
Bear - Going to ask for too much, release him.
Wolanin - 6th/7th defenseman
Hirose - easily makes the team next year, can see him in the top 4
Rathbone - Career AHL dman, can be depth call up
Juulsen - Same as above
Brisebois - 6th/7th defenseman
Burroughs - re sign him for organizational depth
Dermott - Release him.
McWard - Needs a year in the AHL

Pretty accurate actually. Unfortunately OEL isn’t going anywhere. No chance Aquaman spending close to 20 million for him not to play…..

I mean maybe they use their 1st to move him? Hopefully not. He could be okay is an extremely sheltered roll outside of
he top 4….

Also, because Myers bonus isn’t paid until September it’s very likely he starts with the team.

Hard to think the team can be competitive with both of these guys on the team, and they certainly won’t be able to add money on the back end until at least 1 is moved.

They are at least 2 good D-men away from being respectable.

Hughes-Bear (resigned at 2.75 x 2)
Gavrikov (5.25 x 5)-Hronek
OEL-Myers

I’ve liked move of Alvin’s moves but he needs to get serious about moving salary. One forward and one defensemen need to be moved asap.

 

[StickShift]

Pretty accurate actually. Unfortunately OEL isn’t going anywhere. No chance Aquaman spending close to 20 million for him not to play…..

I see this mentioned so often—that the Aquilinis will not pay $$$ for OEL to not play. It feels short sighted. It’s not as if they are paying him $20m up front to not play. A buyout would actually save ownership a TON of cash that they otherwise need to pay over the next two seasons.

In terms of money owed to OEL if he continues to play—they owe OEL $18.5m in salary in just 23-24 and 24-25 (no signing bonuses). Whereas a buyout would only cost them $5.0m during that same time. I would argue that saving $13.5m up front like that is exactly the sort of short term financial decision making that the Aquilinis have made before (see pandemic season).

Paying $2.4m per year over eight years (less the 12% that Arizona would pay) feels a lot less onerous to upgrade your roster and compete for playoff dates than paying $18.5m up front to have a boat anchor on your defense.

 

[ziploc]

Pretty accurate actually. Unfortunately OEL isn’t going anywhere. No chance Aquaman spending close to 20 million for him not to play…..

I mean maybe they use their 1st to move him? Hopefully not. He could be okay is an extremely sheltered roll outside of
he top 4….

Also, because Myers bonus isn’t paid until September it’s very likely he starts with the team.

Hard to think the team can be competitive with both of these guys on the team, and they certainly won’t be able to add money on the back end until at least 1 is moved.

They are at least 2 good D-men away from being respectable.

Hughes-Bear (resigned at 2.75 x 2)
Gavrikov (5.25 x 5)-Hronek
OEL-Myers

I’ve liked move of Alvin’s moves but he needs to get serious about moving salary. One forward and one defensemen need to be moved asap.

That would be a disgusting bottom pairing. Ugh, what a mess. Especially when it feels like we have the players to fill at least one if not both of those positions at a fraction of the cost, and most likely with better results.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

I see this mentioned so often—that the Aquilinis will not pay $$$ for OEL to not play. It feels short sighted. It’s not as if they are paying him $20m up front to not play. A buyout would actually save ownership a TON of cash that they otherwise need to pay over the next two seasons.

View attachment 683338

In terms of money owed to OEL if he continues to play—they owe OEL $18.5m in salary in just 23-24 and 24-25 (no signing bonuses). Whereas a buyout would only cost them $5.0m during that same time. I would argue that saving $13.5m up front like that is exactly the sort of short term financial decision making that the Aquilinis have made before (see pandemic season).

View attachment 683339

Paying $2.4m per year over eight years (less the 12% that Arizona would pay) feels a lot less onerous to upgrade your roster and compete for playoff dates than paying $18.5m up front to have a boat anchor on your defense.

High IQ analysis. Bravo.

 

[Ernie]

You pay the top 10 players on your roster and squeeze the bottom 10 or 12 for every nickel. Bear is not in the top 10 players on this roster, or shouldn't be.

If he won't accept a deal at $2 million or thereabouts, bye.

This player needed retention to be traded for a 5th round pick five months ago. He hasn't done anything to be getting a 50% raise.

I just don't understand where the numbers that people are throwing around are coming from. He's been a 3rd pairing defenseman for 3 seasons with 3 different teams. He's been out for large chunks of that time. Where are the comparables for a higher salary? Because there are a ton of them for $2m and lower. His advanced stats look decent but unfortunately for him those aren't taken into account with arbitration.

If anything it seems like this player is in denial. It's likely time to get him out of here. Maybe they can recoup the 5th.

 

[Diversification]

I predict that Bear will get a 1-year deal at ~2.5-2.75M. He'll hope to ride shotgun alongside QH for the year and seek his fortune on his next deal.

 

[iFan]

If Canucks move Miller this offseason his return should be massive! He’s what every playoff team wants and 8 million is actually below market value for a top line center that brings everything he does… I don’t think they’ll move.

 

[sting101]

Bear's production and ice time put him 120-140 league wide by defence. He's not an above average defender consistently either

We know he's had issues getting benched and traded and can play with indifference. He was acquired cheap because of it. Rutherford running his mouth hyping this acquisition was not smart

His agent wants compensation for free agent years as the Canucks are reportedly trying to lock him up for 3yrs and confidently said they will take a 1yr show me contract because they know that they plan to play him with Hughes next year and that will spike his numbers.

Low to mid 2's or bye. His wife is local and he wanted to come here so it has to be team friendly. Spending what Dhaliwal reported we might as well use the money and go for a better stylistic fit.

 

[sting101]

What is the biggest asset you would attach to Myers to get rid of that contract?

Rathbone Kravtsov 4th for the pleasure of Tyler "Tank Wardaddy" Myers?

Post bonus obviously as otherwise it starts with a late 1st or 2nd probs

 

[JT Milker]

I would keep Myers for the year in the bottom pairing. OEL should be priority #1.

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Team needs at least one really solid defensive guy on the right side who can PK, be put out on 6 on 5 and similar shutdown situations and should have some grit and size. He could be Hughes partner 5 on 5 or be on the bottom pair as Hronek is likely to be the 2nd pairing RD going forward.
Looking at who we have, Myers definitely isn’t that guy except for size but he doesn’t use it that much anyways and is hopefully on his way out soon, Burroughs is decent defensively and has grit but tops out as a 6/7 guy who’s good to have around for depth, Juulsen is kinda the same and Woo, McWard and Johansson are unknowns at the NHL level that have potential.
Bear is sort of a poor man’s Hronek, or a somewhat better Myers, and is kinda redundant with them around unless he’s willing to be the third pairing guy (and be paid as such) and then you need to bring in a guy to play with Hughes who can also be that PK/shutdown situation guy. This also assume that Myers will be moved or him and Bear are both third pair RD who shouldn’t be taking tough matchups.
You can’t pay Bear 3M+ to just be a 5 on 5 guy who can’t be trusted with tough defensive minutes as you still need cap and roster space for someone who can. Ideally you can find someone on a short term deal for a year or two while you wait and see what you have in Woo, McWard, and Johansson and hope at least one of them can become an everyday NHLer.
Ideally, drafting Reinbacher would solve a lot of those issues at ELC money but that’s pure speculation at this point.

 

[ephmrl]

Pretty interesting seeing how he interacts with Brisebois and Bear.