Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | The Final Countdown

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Vector's NHL Transaction Tracker.

Some Important Off-Season Dates

Buyout Period: 48 hours after the SCF; players without NMCs must be placed on unconditional waivers 24 hours prior (another buyout period opens if a team has a player file for arbitration)
Team-Elected Arbitration: 48 hours after the SCF
Draft Day 01: June 28th
Draft Day 02: June 29th
Qualifying Offer Date: July 1st
Free Agency Opens: July 1st, 9am PST
Summer Development Camp: July 1st-4th
Player-Elected Arbitration: July 5th
Young Stars Classic Tournament: Sep. 13th-16th

Click to read more...

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

AFP does good work! They've been pretty close on all of their projections so far. The real test will be the UFA predictions, though.





Like Mr. C says, I think he gets the Podkozlin 2y/1m contract. AFP agrees as well.

Agree on AFP, I've been using them in my compulsive Capfriendly permutations (before Capfriendly goes dark )

 

[biturbo19]

I'd flip Mik for Atkinson quite easily if possible.

Cam Atkinson is tiny, more expensive, not appreciably more productive than Mikheyev, worse defensively, on the PK, on the forecheck, slower...just a downgrade in pretty much every way.

The only positive to Cam Atkinson is one less year on his deal. But he's completely broken and totally washed. There's a reason Philly are just waiting in the starting gate champing at the bit waiting for the buyout window to open and get rid of him.

I think they're also probably at a place where they'd prefer to just buy out Atkinson and then use that space freed up to take on another bad contract (like Mikheyev) plus a sweetener asset, well before they'd just swap the two even straight up.

NHL Edge stuff can be useful but I must caution that there is only 3 years worth of data. There is not enough data to actually trend and make conclusions on if a player is on the downhill side of his career or if there are other factors that maybe affected them. In the end someone like Stephenson was still 95th percentile for speed bursts. Yes his top speed declined but the bursts indicate he still has speed to spare.

Yeah. It's not all totally useless, but it's a tiny sample of data to go on and you often get data that's kind of funky or misleading if you're trying to draw conclusions based on that, rather than looking at something on the ice and using it out of curiosity to cross check something with another reference point.

In which case...i don't really see Stephenson suddenly losing a whole bunch of speed last year. He still looks plenty fast, and that's generally still what the Edge Stats suggest. From watching him, it certainly doesn't look to me like it was inability to get to places that caused some "cave in" of his underlying metrics. And there's plenty of evidence there to indicate he's still got great wheels - in the Edge stats and on video.

I still think it's far more likely that it's about roster and role configuration, along with as mentioned by someone else here...probably an element of "Stanley Cup/Playoff Grind Hangover". Hit quite a few players on that team this year tbh.

This is what Florida has constantly been doing under Zito. Rehabilitating players with spotty track records and extracting way more value from them than expected. Did it with Forsling, Montour, Mikkola, Kulikov, OEL, Bennett, Verhaghe...

Can guarantee they're not signing the current versions of guys like Lindholm or Zadorov.

Yeah. This is really vital. I think the Canucks actually did an alright job of this last year. Finding some bargains that gave "surplus value" for the year. The problem is...most of them were short-term propositions, mostly 1-year sort of deals. Rather than the way the Panthers have seemed to have a knack for getting some of these guys locked in to those multi-year "value deals". But it's a risky proposition, and even with great Pro Scouting...that's really gambling, where the deals can easily turn bad if you project wrong, or something unexpected happens to the player.

If all you care about is speed, sign Kasperi Kapanen for $775K, not Chandler Stephenson for $6M.

Why not both?

Since he was in Drance's recent article, I had been thinking of Kapanen too. At the very least would come very cheap. If they get off Mikheyev, he is a natural replacement for speed on the wing and PKing (and non-existent offensive IQ).

Prior to this season he was more-or-less a 0.5 PPG player, so there is like...something there.

Yeah. I'm big on the idea of bringing in Kapanen on a cheap rehabilitation deal. I'm not sure if it'll be absolute minimum, but it should be cheap. The other thing i really like about Kapanen, is that he's another one of those guys who has historically been a very robust Even Strength producer. Plus, the speed is dynamic when he's in the right role.

I think the worry with him is, he tends to be frustrating if he's forced as a square peg into a round hole playing with high skill Top-6 Forwards. His game is a little bit disjointed and doesn't have that same flow to it. He's one of those weird Forwards who will probably score ~10-15G - 35Pts whether he's on your 1st line or your 4th. A lot of people view that as a negative because it means he's irritating in your Top-6...but i tend to look at it as "value added" in that it's really strong production from the Bottom-6 and doesn't require expensive/high-end linemates and playmakers to get him there.

Rumours of a potential Skinner buyout in Buffalo.

If that happens, I'd definitely look at him as a low cost FA signing on a ST deal.

I'm not sure that Skinner would be all that interested in signing here. If he thinks we're a playoff team, it could really put his GOAT streak of NHL Games Played without a Playoff Appearance in jeopardy.


But in all seriousness...actually, if he takes his buyout money and signs a real cheap, short-term deal Blake Wheeler style...i'd be done for giving it a try with Pettersson. He's got the skating and the natural goal-scoring skill to potentially click there and read off Petey. Might be a help for the Powerplay as well.

Though i do wonder how he'd mesh with Tocchet. Kuzmenko had problems getting the stamp of approval for defensive work, and Skinner certainly isn't any better. And the Wheeler example certainly didn't work out great...so there's some risk in how guys adjust after getting bought out and paid like that.

I mentioned this before but I think Liljegren would be a good add as a partner for Dillon or General Zad.

I'd be interested in Liljegren. I know Toronto fans are sick of him and Treliving is trying to "reconstruct" that whole blueline still. So he's gotta go. But i do think he's grown into a relatively useful #4/5 tweener RHD. That could be useful here, if he can keep his game simple enough and stay healthy.

But...

liljegren averaged nearly 20 minutes last year and has arbitration rights. i assume that means he wants 4/5 money but he's kind of in the hutton position of being able to play top 4 minutes without being a reliable top 4 dman and without producing offence to offset his unreliability.

i wanted us to grab a mid round pick to get liljegren at his draft. clearly that was a bad idea so i will stay silent this time.

This is the really big problem with Liljegren. If it's a trade scenario with Toronto, which is probably is...you're in a pretty awful spot contract-wise. You qualify him, and then end up in Arbitration, he's not going to hit the "Walk-Away Number" which i believe is $4.75M or something thereabouts. But it's entirely plausible the stupid arbitrator awards him something in that $3-4M range and you're stuck with it.


Now...if you could agree in principle to a few years at say $2-2.5M range ahead of time or something, i'd be more interested. But i'm not sure how realistic that is with the potential leverage he's holding.

It's funny, i actually kinda hated him at the draft. Thought he was a pretty dumb defenceman who had a real penchant for using his great skating to...mostly skate his way into trouble. Still hasn't ever completely ironed that out, but i've softened on him a lot over the years. He can play reasonable NHL hockey and his mobility is definitely still a major plus.

I went all out for the last cap friendly arm chair GM of my arm chair GM career on cap friendly.

Suter-Miller-Boeser
Hoglander-Pettersson-Guentzal
Leason-Blueger-Garland
Karlsson-Aman-Podkolzin
Abruzzese

Hughes-Chariot
Soucy-G. Lindstrom
Del Mastro-Liljegren
Brisebois Juulsen

Demko
Silovs

Trades went down as such

Chariot, Det 2nd 24', Bos 4th '25 for Aidan McDonough's rights

Abruzzese, Liljegren, Van 5th 24' for Dakota Joshua, Cole McWard

Del Mastro, NYI 1st 24', Chi 3rd 24' for Filip Hronek

Leason, Lindstrom for Chi 3rd 24', Bos 4th 25'

Cap of 82.7M

Van would pick in every round in the draft this year.

It'd be swell to have some picks in the draft. But certainly not at the cost of...doing whatever that is to the Defence Corps. Yikes.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Now Do Lindholm and Joshua.

 

[Hansen]

Now Do Lindholm and Joshua.


View attachment 884084

Zadorov and Joshua*

 

[VanillaCoke]

Now Do Lindholm and Joshua.


View attachment 884084

Lindholm and Zadorov*

 

[bossram]

Zadorov and Joshua*

*Joshua only

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Now Do Lindholm and Joshua.


View attachment 884084

Lafferty and Cole*

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

*Joshua only

*No one, and Mikheyev stays in the lineup.

(Seriously - a lot of the remaining roster composition is going to be heavily linked to our success in moving this player. If we do indeed go after - and manage to obtain - Guentzel, without offloading Mikheyev, it's going to mean bargain-rate and minimum wage players for the rest of the roster spots for the most part)

 

[Nuckles]

Sadly I think this guarantees Zadorov's exit. Not enough cap space to go around with their sights set on Guentzel. They're probably praying to snag Tanev on a discount too.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Sadly I think this guarantees Zadorov's exit. Not enough cap space to go around with their sights set on Guentzel. They're probably praying to snag Tanev on a discount too.

Personally, I think the major block for Zadorov will be Mikheyev.

If they can't move Mikheyev, I don't think they can afford to tie up that much salary in one guy.

 

[Hodgy]

Sadly I think this guarantees Zadorov's exit. Not enough cap space to go around with their sights set on Guentzel. They're probably praying to snag Tanev on a discount too.

I think the best case semi realistic scenario is we sign Tanev and Guentzel.

 

[bossram]

Sadly I think this guarantees Zadorov's exit. Not enough cap space to go around with their sights set on Guentzel. They're probably praying to snag Tanev on a discount too.

Hughes - Hronek
Soucy - Tanev
Dillon - Myers
Juulsen

I have no issues if that is the blueline.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Now Do Lindholm and Joshua.


View attachment 884084

Irwin and Dries.

 

[Hodgy]

Hughes - Hronek
Soucy - Tanev
Dillon - Myers
Juulsen

I have no issues if that is the blueline.

That assumes we don't sign a guy like Guentzel though. I think if we want to add a reasonably high end winger than Dillon and/or Myers are gone. But as I said in another post, I'd rather target Tanev over Dillon and Myers because I think we will more easily be able to acquire depth defenders throughout the season rather than a top four defender.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Sadly I think this guarantees Zadorov's exit. Not enough cap space to go around with their sights set on Guentzel. They're probably praying to snag Tanev on a discount too.

Tanev and Dillon could possibly be less than Zadorov, I expect both to be canucks by July 5th.

 

[ManVanFan]

Hughes - Hronek
Soucy - Tanev
Dillon - Myers
Juulsen

I have no issues if that is the blueline.

Other than it's old as balls. a 34, 35, 35 year old. Wtf. Sorry two 35 year olds there. Soucy going to be 30 as well.

 

[dez]

I feel Tanev is going for the biggest deal, this will be his last big contract and if the Leafs or Sens are going to offer 5.5+ he'll take it

 

[bossram]

That assumes we don't sign a guy like Guentzel though. I think if we want to add a reasonably high end winger than Dillon and/or Myers are gone. But as I said in another post, I'd rather target Tanev over Dillon and Myers because I think we will more easily be able to acquire depth defenders throughout the season rather than a top four defender.

They can still acquire pretty much anyone they want, even with that blueline....given they dump Mikheyev at full freight.

Other than it's old as balls. a 34, 35, 35 year old. Wtf. Sorry two 35 year olds there. Soucy going to be 30 as well.

Dillon and Myers will be pretty term-limited, and hopefully have their roles eased on the third pair. Most people here still seem to love Tanev and want to sign him.

Again, not really issues to me. I would rather go that route than give a crazy deal to Pesce because he's "younger".

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I feel Tanev is going for the biggest deal, this will be his last big contract and if the Leafs or Sens are going to offer 5.5+ he'll take it

I think Tanev will prioritize a playoff run, personally - can't see him going to Ottawa. I could see Toronto, as they should be a playoff team.

I still think the most likely outcome is him staying in Dallas.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Hughes - Hronek
Soucy - Tanev
Dillon - Myers
Juulsen

I have no issues if that is the blueline.

Wow that defence is gonna have a hard time moving the puck if Myers loses a step watch out.

 

[Nuckles]

I feel Tanev is going for the biggest deal, this will be his last big contract and if the Leafs or Sens are going to offer 5.5+ he'll take it

I highly doubt he's just going to chase the money at this point in his career. He's made 45M in career earnings (pre-taxes and whatnot).

He'll likely go somewhere he wants to live/play for personal reasons, or a cup contender.
Not saying he's going to sign for league minimum, but I doubt a bad team offering to overpay sways him from a good team offering decent money.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I highly doubt he's just going to chase the money at this point in his career. He's made 45M in career earnings (pre-taxes and whatnot).

He'll likely go somewhere he wants to live/play for personal reasons, or a cup contender.

I'd like to think we could do both, but I hold him in a similar category as Zadorov right now - if we can't move Mikheyev, and are indeed in the hunt for Guentzel, I don't think he's a player we can afford.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Fantastic news on Hronek! Their biggest hurdle is out of the way now.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

I highly doubt he's just going to chase the money at this point in his career. He's made 45M in career earnings (pre-taxes and whatnot).

He'll likely go somewhere he wants to live/play for personal reasons, or a cup contender.
Not saying he's going to sign for league minimum, but I doubt a bad team offering to overpay sways him from a good team offering decent money.

Agreed. I think it's between Dallas, us and maybe Toronto if he has any long term aspirations there. He doesn't strike me as the type to strike out for top dollar no matter the team.

 

[bossram]

Wow that defence is gonna have a hard time moving the puck if Myers loses a step watch out.

Tanev is an underrated "puck-mover". He actually retrieves the puck and makes plays that lead to clean exits.

He doesn't get many points though, which is what most people mean when they say "puck-mover".