Post-Game Talk: Canucks 3 Leafs 2

[ToneDog]

Yup same basic principle ..

This is going to be the first year in a long time where Leafs will enter the playoffs with a tandem goaltending plan and rotational system rather than a clear cut #1 at present.

Agreed if playoffs started tomorrow but there are two months of hockey to be played. Fingers crossed one of the two will emerge as the #1.

 

[Gallagbi]

Whenever these high volume shot events and low production events occur, it's important to realize other teams are falling back on a pretty successful formula. Both games fell into similar patterns. Like I said the other night the Calgary game probably should have ended as a 3-2 road loss (or 3-2 road win) as the Canucks game actually did.

Calgary was more textbook park the bus on the defensive side since they thrive in that style of game but Bruce Boudreau had the Canucks playing a similar style with OEL, Myers, Schenn, Hamonic collapsing down low, blocking up the shot option from the slot and gambling Demko would come up big on the perimeter shot and have the man advantage on the rebound scramble.

I wouldn't be surprised if you saw the same thing from Seattle on Monday with guys like Oleksiak, Geekie, Fleury, Soucy, etc. suddenly looking like a redwood forest in front of the net and Grubauer looking strong behind them.

...but they didn't play the same way. At all. Like not even close.

You're looking at the results to justify your theory instead of the actual game play. I'd throw in advanced stats in there too, but I'm sure they'd be dismissed.

Calgary absolutely clogged up the middle and while we had many shots, a lot were perimeter. Truthfully we should haven't scored more than the 2-3 goals we did. It was the GA that bit us that game.

Last night we had significantly more opportunities in prime spots. We were open in the slot with a moving goalie. We had down low chances, breakaways, posts, and many cross seem plays. We didn't finish. Even with the questionable 3GA we had enough quality chanced that we should have won in regulation.


Much different games, with a sadly similar outcome.

 

[Stephen]

Agreed, I'm not saying we were outplayed by CGY, chances both ways were limited and it should have played out in a tighter 2-1/3-2 esque game

Last night could have easily been a 5/6-1 game for the Leafs. I just didn't see that possibility without brutal goaltending against CGY, which oddly enough is the way we lost it by a large margin

Other teams don't want to lose 6-1 or 5-1 to the Leafs, so they play a game plan that appears to be effective at least some of the time by conceding certain areas of the ice, some looks and protecting critical areas and supporting their goalies in tight. The other thing that helps this park the bus strategy is the Leafs don't have a serious shot threat from the blueline. Maybe these games produce statistical anomalies people are confused about but it's clear there's at least a road map for wrestling Toronto to the mat.

 

[PromisedLand]

Who was the best goalie we had last time we had a good one? Belfour? Joseph?

this might not be a "popular" opinion but I think Andersen wasn't that bad. We just couldn't score goals. How much of it is mental and how much of it is "fear" i.e. don't wanna get hit/go in corners/etc...; is something I am not sure about.

We keep looking for "fancy" plays instead of banging in garbage goals, taking puck to the net and look for rebounds, screen goalies put the puck on net and look for rebounds etc....

fancy plays -> if they are not working on ice then you have to change the strategy to let opposition (including goalies) change the way they think/work or else it is easy night for opposition.

Fancy plays always work on playstation though so....

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Whenever these high volume shot events and low production events occur, it's important to realize other teams are falling back on a pretty successful formula. Both games fell into similar patterns. Like I said the other night the Calgary game probably should have ended as a 3-2 road loss (or 3-2 road win) as the Canucks game actually did.

Calgary was more textbook park the bus on the defensive side since they thrive in that style of game but Bruce Boudreau had the Canucks playing a similar style with OEL, Myers, Schenn, Hamonic collapsing down low, blocking up the shot option from the slot and gambling Demko would come up big on the perimeter shot and have the man advantage on the rebound scramble.

I wouldn't be surprised if you saw the same thing from Seattle on Monday with guys like Oleksiak, Geekie, Fleury, Soucy, etc. suddenly looking like a redwood forest in front of the net and Grubauer looking strong behind them.

getting outshot by 30 and praying that your goalie will make 50 saves isn't plan A for teams on most nights, because it isn't really a strategy that works in the long term. It can work on any given night, but teams don't do it because it's the trick to beating the Leafs every time. They just have no other option. The Leafs still have a great record, because controlling play is still a much better strategy in the long run

 

[Gallagbi]

Other teams don't want to lose 6-1 or 5-1 to the Leafs, so they play a game plan that appears to be effective at least some of the time by conceding certain areas of the ice, some looks and protecting critical areas and supporting their goalies in tight. The other thing that helps this park the bus strategy is the Leafs don't have a serious shot threat from the blueline. Maybe these games produce statistical anomalies people are confused about but it's clear there's at least a road map for wrestling Toronto to the mat.

You're seeing what you want to see instead of what's actually happening. Last night was a much different beast than the Calgary game.

 

[ShaneFalco]

this might not be a "popular" opinion but I think Andersen wasn't that bad. We just couldn't score goals. How much of it is mental and how much of it is "fear" i.e. don't wanna get hit/go in corners/etc...; is something I am not sure about.

He just has a tendency to let soul crushing goals in

 

[Stephen]

getting outshot by 30 and praying that your goalie will make 50 saves isn't plan A for teams on most nights, because it isn't really a strategy that works in the long term. It can work on any given night, but teams don't do it because it's the trick to beating the Leafs every time. They just have no other option. The Leafs still have a great record, because controlling play is still a much better strategy in the long run

What else are they going to do, run and gun and see if they can win 8-6?

 

[therealkoho]

Great post. I'm so tired of losing in the playoffs, and almost as tired of people posting a bunch of numbers showing how well we played in losing.

no doubt and you're not alone but these games happen and they always will, it's part of the game, just like players who put up a once in a lifetime game, like Turnbulls' 5 goal night

"Turnbull scores two goals against Ed Giacomin and three against Jim Rutherford, becoming the first player in NHL history to score five goals on five shots"

Flukes and/or outstanding performance's happen, we saw both last night a couple of flukey goals(much like in Calgary) and an outstanding performance by the Leafs stymied by a couple of goaltender's who also don't happen to be known sieves, both players are outstanding and above average netminders.

I even said in the pre-game thread that nobody should expect a walk in the park and that it would be a tough two, nobody listens and everyone's expectations were sky high and sounded like that the Leafs are just going to sweep the Nux aside like they're an ECHL team. It's the NHL, populated with NHL players and there are no easy two's.

People need to lower their expectations a bit even though the Leafs are one of the leagues premier teams, arguably top 5, but they are not the 76 Canadiens they're more like the 82/83 Blackhawks a team that rolled out either Murray Bannerman or an aging Tony O, great team with great offense, decent defense but middling goaltending

 

[PromisedLand]

Dating back to the CBJ playoff series, I’m getting really tired of saying the goaltender was the difference yet again. Toronto never comes up with the better goaltending in the game to secure a W for us.

Last game and now todays game, the other team goalie was the difference

The way I see it is that other teams either are lucky with their goal tending (i.e. cap controlled) or are paying heft amount on their goal tending (ex: Price, Vasi, etc..) so top goal tending is expected.

Leafs' cap allocation is that 4 guys make about 50% of the cap -> i.e. these 4 guys have to contribute offensively while playing well defensively; if they don't then thats it. We can't expect the likes of Campbell/Mrazek to give out Vezina level goal tending 90% of the regular season and 100% in the playoffs.

The team structure and cap allocation is on Dubas; this is his team and he has to take responsibility if things don't work in the playoffs. Regular season I am not that worried.

Leafs are gonna line up against either Tampa or Florida as a 2nd or 3rd in Atlantic; leafs are going to have to find a way to get on the scoresheet and stop relying on stellar goal tending

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

What else are they going to do, run and gun and see if they can win 8-6?

You mean the Leafs? They could, but I doubt that would work for them. The bigger concern for me is that it won't matter how well they play when the other goalie is so much better than ours. The chances that they can outplay Tampa enough to offset Vasilevskiy's edge over Campbell is small

 

[PromisedLand]

My eye test tends to agree with a lot of this. Teams who are successful against us box us out, concede the perimeter shooting and cycling and are willing to gamble on the rebound situation because they have numerical advantage in the slot. The result is we rag it around, get odd angle shots from the wing (because the top of the slot is usually too well protected to risk a shot block) and then we don't have enough guys in front of the net, spacing or body positioning to score those rebound goals.

But from a stats POV, you have excellent zone clock time, massive shot counter and probably a heat map showing a lot of rebounds in and around the net area. But when you watch the play, there's usually two guys on the Leaf in the slot and the rebound attempt looks like shoveling the puck into the goalie's paddle down.

Tell me if this isn't a nightmare scene that goes back to the Columbus series.

Bingo!

 

[therealkoho]

You mean the Leafs? They could, but I doubt that would work for them. The bigger concern for me is that it won't matter how well they play when the other goalie is so much better than ours. The chances that they can outplay Tampa enough to offset Vasilevskiy's edge over Campbell is small

this is the unfortunate and very sad truth

 

[Zybalto]

The way I see it is that other teams either are lucky with their goal tending (i.e. cap controlled) or are paying heft amount on their goal tending (ex: Price, Vasi, etc..) so top goal tending is expected.

Leafs' cap allocation is that 4 guys make about 50% of the cap -> i.e. these 4 guys have to contribute offensively while playing well defensively; if they don't then thats it. We can't expect the likes of Campbell/Mrazek to give out Vezina level goal tending 90% of the regular season and 100% in the playoffs.

The team structure and cap allocation is on Dubas; this is his team and he has to take responsibility if things don't work in the playoffs. Regular season I am not that worried.

Leafs are gonna line up against either Tampa or Florida as a 2nd or 3rd in Atlantic; leafs are going to have to find a way to get on the scoresheet and stop relying on stellar goal tending

Like someone said earlier, the Leafs averaged like 5 goals a game for a 9 game sample before the Calgary game so it's not too big a worry.

Losing 2 games on the road out west outshooting the other teams 101-50 shouldn't leave that bad a feeling TBH.....just goaltending worries right now.

 

[weems]

Somewhat agree with this.

Scoring chances were much tighter last game but the Leafs still had a solid edge against the Flames as the pure volume shooting should have produced a good bounce or two more than it did as the Leafs completely outworked them much of the time but last night was pure domination at a different level as the Leafs were getting prime looks nonstop. I think just the refs actually being competent would have seen this a 6-2 type score as the Canucks were getting away with murder with interference/slashing and it's fitting the refs handed them the game at the end.

What's up with some of these credited high danger chances for?

Naturalstattrick credited both Kampf and Muzzin as having a iHDCF.

Kampf (15:03 Period 1)

- Kampf gets a pass from Muzzin in the neutral zone, he skates puck into offensive zone with a step on the defender. He puts shoulder down and takes a 1 handed backhand from the faceoff dot area that literally has zero pace on it and hits the side of the net.

Muzzin (9:21 Period 3)

- Spezza gets puck after turnover, feeds pass to Mikheyev who has great chance in slot, rebound comes out to Muzzin and skates puck almost right to the goalline and fires a shot towards the net that hits the side of the goal.

I wouldnt call either of these chances high danger attempts and the Kampf one is hilarious. Mikheyev actually had a point blank chance just seconds before Muzzin that was only given a 0.08xG but Muzzin shooting from literally the goalline somehow has a xG of 0.24xG.

Heres the fullgame video if you'd like to watch the chance I'm talking about.

 

[Stephen]

You're seeing what you want to see instead of what's actually happening. Last night was a much different beast than the Calgary game.

So whenever the Leafs get spectacularly out-goalied and their big guns are quieted, you prefer to think it's the result of singular, spectacular goaltending efforts (Korpisalo, Merzlikins, Rittich, Price, Vedjmeka, Markstrom, Demko) than some kind of organized game plan?

I'm going to call it now, if Seattle beats Toronto on Monday night, expect it to look like the entire Seattle Kraken defense living in the slot, the Leafs circling around like they're looking for a parking space at Ikea on the holidays and then Donato or Eberle getting an opportunity on a breakdown.

 

[Zybalto]

What's up with some of these credited high danger chances for?

Naturalstattrick credited both Kampf and Muzzin as having a iHDCF.

Kampf (15:03 Period 1)

- Kampf gets a pass from Muzzin in the neutral zone, he skates puck into offensive zone with a step on the defender. He puts shoulder down and takes a 1 handed backhand from the faceoff dot area that literally has zero pace on it and hits the side of the net.

Muzzin (9:21 Period 3)

- Spezza gets puck after turnover, feeds pass to Mikheyev who has great chance in slot, rebound comes out to Muzzin and skates puck almost right to the goalline and fires a shot towards the net that hits the side of the goal.

I wouldnt call either of these chances high danger attempts and the Kampf was is hilarious. Mikheyev actually had a point blank chance just seconds before Muzzin that was only given a 0.08xG but Muzzin shooting from literally the goalline somehow has a xG of 0.24xG.

Heres the fullgame video if you'd like to watch the chance I'm talking about.

It's not a perfect science of course and you need some form of standardization when it comes to the agreed-upon areas to classify things.

I'm not sure you really needed the stats last night though as everyone and their dog agreed Demko was 1st 2nd and 3rd-star last night. When the Canuck fans themselves are saying it......

 

[aingefan]

Agreed if playoffs started tomorrow but there are two months of hockey to be played. Fingers crossed one of the two will emerge as the #1.

You’d rather them be cold now rather than later, naturally.
But ya definitely want one/both to heat up.

 

[Gallagbi]

So whenever the Leafs get spectacularly out-goalied and their big guns are quieted, you prefer to think it's the result of singular, spectacular goaltending efforts (Korpisalo, Merzlikins, Rittich, Price, Vedjmeka, Markstrom, Demko) than some kind of organized game plan?

I actually just said the goals vs. Calgary was pretty fair for the quality of chances we generated. Did you miss it?

I'd also say that while Korpi was the difference in the series vs. CLB, that was never going to be a high scoring affair given their styles. Do you understand how that can work? Where we can hold the edge in play, but a goalie can still outperform expectations?

I'm going to call it now, if Seattle beats Toronto on Monday night, expect it to look like the entire Seattle Kraken defense living in the slot, the Leafs circling around like they're looking for a parking space at Ikea on the holidays and then Donato or Eberle getting an opportunity on a breakdown.

It wouldn't be surprising for an expansion team to try and clog up the middle against a top 5 scoring team. But I'm also betting we could come out of that game with 15 breakaways, numerous 2on1s a dozen posts and a 2-1 loss to "see they just clogged us up" posts like we did last night.

The results don't always justify the play or quality of chances.

We've been shutdown at times this year, we've been outgoalied at times this year, we've also been held in by Jack at times. Sometimes the score and shot look similar, other times they don't. Seems like people can't see past the results at times.

 

[therealkoho]

What's up with some of these credited high danger chances for?

Naturalstattrick credited both Kampf and Muzzin as having a iHDCF.

Kampf (15:03 Period 1)

- Kampf gets a pass from Muzzin in the neutral zone, he skates puck into offensive zone with a step on the defender. He puts shoulder down and takes a 1 handed backhand from the faceoff dot area that literally has zero pace on it and hits the side of the net.

Muzzin (9:21 Period 3)

- Spezza gets puck after turnover, feeds pass to Mikheyev who has great chance in slot, rebound comes out to Muzzin and skates puck almost right to the goalline and fires a shot towards the net that hits the side of the goal.

I wouldnt call either of these chances high danger attempts and the Kampf one is hilarious. Mikheyev actually had a point blank chance just seconds before Muzzin that was only given a 0.08xG but Muzzin shooting from literally the goalline somehow has a xG of 0.24xG.

Heres the fullgame video if you'd like to watch the chance I'm talking about.

lets keep this a no dangle zone please

 

[weems]

It's not a perfect science of course and you need some form of standardization when it comes to the agreed-upon areas to classify things.

I'm not sure you really needed the stats last night though as everyone and their dog agreed Demko was 1st 2nd and 3rd-star last night. When the Canuck fans themselves are saying it......

We definitely dominated last night and deserved to win.

I've just been somewhat suprised at how often public sites like NST or Moneypuck are incorrectly posting where shots actually take place or crediting certain chances as HDCF when in reality theres nothing that dangerous about the chance.

Very useful sites but some added video context is much needed many times with their stats.

 

[killer1980]

Lots of praise for Matthews/Marner last night, I'm gonna throw some cold water on that. Sure lots of chances, lots of possession but nothing in tight, no rebounds, no front net presence at all.

Very telling when SN did a piece on Marner & Matthews staying on the ice and just passing to themselves. Sure the team is winning games but it is a team sport. Nylander looks like he is giving up lately and MM/AM are not only getting most of the goals but all of the praise. If and when they have a poor game the Buds have no chance. They are beginning to be overplayed already and we have to be afraid of burnout come playoff time. The goaltending is now showing cracks. The defensive end is still rife with too many turnovers. There has to be a more even distribution of ice time or, I fear, come playoff time history will repeat itself.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Feels like he tries to play too safe with Muzzin, like on that first goal against last night. The boards are cutoff, don't force it there because it's the "safe" area". Then both struggle with acceleration and puck handling, so they're constantly under pressure.

Go back to Sandin - Holl and Muzz - Lilj

These pairings make a lot more sense, the young guys skill sets compliment the older guys better.

 

[Zybalto]

We definitely dominated last night and deserved to win.

I've just been somewhat suprised at how often public sites like NST or Moneypuck are incorrectly posting where shots actually take place or crediting certain chances as HDCF when in reality theres nothing that dangerous about the chance.

Very useful sites but some added video context is much needed many times with their stats.

Thats why we should never take them completely as gospel. You are never going to fully recapture a game with stats. They are very useful though.

 

[Zybalto]

So whenever the Leafs get spectacularly out-goalied and their big guns are quieted, you prefer to think it's the result of singular, spectacular goaltending efforts (Korpisalo, Merzlikins, Rittich, Price, Vedjmeka, Markstrom, Demko) than some kind of organized game plan?

I'm going to call it now, if Seattle beats Toronto on Monday night, expect it to look like the entire Seattle Kraken defense living in the slot, the Leafs circling around like they're looking for a parking space at Ikea on the holidays and then Donato or Eberle getting an opportunity on a breakdown.

I think you are reaching into conspiratorial thought a bit here.

Getting a larger sample, since January 1st, the Leafs scored 4.3 goals/game (2nd in the league) heading into the Calgary game.

Whats more likely? That two of the best goalies in the league atm had great games at home against the Leafs or that the teams intentionally tried to get completely outplayed and outworked and unlock the Columbus strat to stop the Leafs combined with some of the more favorable reffing to seal the deal. You really think Sutter and Boudreau went back in the locker room to the team and said "great work guys"? Outshot 2-1 at home? Thats the way to do it boys!

I highly doubt it....especially from Sutter. Thats the worse theyve been outshot all year. I don't think he drew it out that way.