Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[River Meadow]

That’s a huge statement and would change everything if warranted. Where do the best draft specialists stand on this?

I remember listening to this on some 'Locked on' podcast where they had a 'draft expert' type guy, I forget who though.

I think it was either Locked on Coyotes or Locked on Sharks, I'll need to check again.

But yeah..... I even saw someone who doesn't think very highly of Smith, had him going 8th OA, and even then was iffy about it.

And tbh... who is to say they are right or wrong...

If we look back at drafts and what we know now.... anything is possible.

 

[Runner77]

Don't forget about his dashing good looks, which may rival Slafkovsky's...

I might have to defer to @Adam Michaels on that — he has a blueprint for optimum masculine jawlines. Juulsen may just be the ultimate prototype.

 

[yianik]

If Kent Hughes thinks Carlsson , Fantilli or Smith are going to be 1Cs , then he needs to go for it. Especially, especially, if he is passing on Michkov.

And to have a chance of moving up, we will have go pay. Personally if that's how these other teams see these guys I wouldn't trade their pick to us, but teams do.

Offering Florida's pick is just starters. Likely this would involve 3 teams unless we can trade with Anaheim. So any none Montreal 1st round picks I would throw in. In terms of trade chip players, Anderson goes in. As for prospects, no on Hutson , Engstrom , Mailloux, but that's about it, though would like to keep Roy , but he goes if needed.

So if we are offering the 5th, Florida 1st ( 29-32 ), Anderson and Kidney/ Beck/ Farrell ( / means "or" ) does that give us 3OA ? ( I know Anderson isn't going to Columbus ). Are we close ?

I know there will be people that will say that's an overpay. If Hughes thinks for example Carlsson is the real deal, then you take the risk and i dont care if it's it's "overpay". If paying that gives us an 80% chance of having a real 1C for a decade, it's not an overpay at all. And I'll pay more.

Edited

 

[Runner77]

I remember listening to this on some 'Locked on' podcast where they had a 'draft expert' type guy, I forget who though.

I think it was either Locked on Coyotes or Locked on Sharks, I'll need to check again.

But yeah..... I even saw someone who doesn't think very highly of Smith, had him going 8th OA, and even then was iffy about it.

And tbh... who is to say they are right or wrong...

If we look back at drafts and what we know now.... anything is possible.

We’re getting a good look here:

 

[Takeru]

I remember listening to this on some 'Locked on' podcast where they had a 'draft expert' type guy, I forget who though.

I think it was either Locked on Coyotes or Locked on Sharks, I'll need to check again.

But yeah..... I even saw someone who doesn't think very highly of Smith, had him going 8th OA, and even then was iffy about it.

And tbh... who is to say they are right or wrong...

If we look back at drafts and what we know now.... anything is possible.

Tbf, you'll always find someone with a more contrarian/hotter take compared to the consensus.

And while consensus isn't the determining factor on the outcome, it's the closest approximation we can get on how things "should" reasonably play out.

We'll see when Bob Mac drops his list if there's hope I guess

 

[McGees]

Who’s having this dream?



Where’s Carlsson?

Is this the image right before he asks to be traded out of MTL?

 

[Team_Spirit]

Michkov looks so small lol

But 1st on the rebound in the slot!

As the kids say...Michkov got that dawg in him frfr no cap

 

[Takeru]

If Kent Hughes thinks Carlsson , Fantilli or Smith are going to be 1Cs , then he needs to go for it. Especially, especially, if he is passing on Michkov.

And to have a chance of moving up, we will have go pay. Personally if that's how these other teams see these guys I wouldn't trade their pick to us, but teams do.

Offering Florida's pick is just starters. Likely this would involve 3 teams unless we can trade with Anaheim. So any none Montreal 1st round picks I would throw in. In terms of trade chip players, Anderson goes in. As for prospects, no on Hutson , Engstrom , Mailloux, but that's about it, though would like to keep Roy , but he goes if needed.

So if we are offering the 5th, Florida 1st ( 29-32 ), Anderson and Kidney/ Beck/ Farrell ( / means "or" ) does that give us 3OA ? ( I know Anderson isn't going to Columbus ). Are we close ?

I know there will be people that will say that's an overpay. If Hughes thinks for example Carlsson is the real deal, then you take the risk and i dont care if it's it's "overpay". If paying that gives us an 80% chance of having a real 1C for a decade, it's not an overpay at all. And I'll pay more.

Edited

I think you need a set of special circumstances for that kind of trade to work. That close to the top of the draft, there really needs to be an incentive for the higher pick team to trade down. Think Debrincat for 7OA last year.

I doubt it's as simple as adding extra quantity to 5OA to entice CBJ to trade down, unless they think they get their guy (Smith for instance) at 5OA either way.
This year has high uncertainty at 5 with the Michkov situation and the drop-off in talent from top 4 to Smith.

While in hindsight it could end up the more reasonable thing to do, teams that high rarely opt to trade down because of the potential optics. While you can get more total assets/global value out of it, the optics of having traded away the opportunity at a greater player won't go down well in most fans eyes. Same as us last year, we could have traded down and probably gotten an equivalent (or maybe the very same) player + added value, but the potential negative perception make it too risky for most management compared to the return.

 

[yianik]

I think you need a set of special circumstances for that kind of trade to work. That close to the top of the draft, there really needs to be an incentive for the higher pick team to trade down. Think Debrincat for 7OA last year.

I doubt it's as simple as adding extra quantity to 5OA to entice CBJ to trade down, unless they think they get their guy (Smith for instance) at 5OA either way.
This year has high uncertainty at 5 with the Michkov situation and the drop-off in talent from top 4 to Smith.

While in hindsight it could end up the more reasonable thing to do, teams that high rarely opt to trade down because of the potential optics. While you can get more total assets/global value out of it, the optics of having traded away the opportunity at a greater player won't go down well in most fans eyes. Same as us last year, we could have traded down and probably gotten an equivalent (or maybe the very same) player + added value, but the potential negative perception make it too risky for most management compared to the return.

I think if Columbus is okay between Carlsson and Smith, and the Sharks are happy with Michkov, then it has a chance.

Columbus wants a centre, so they go to 4th and get Smith, Sharks get 5th and pick Michkov. We grab Carlsson at 3.

Or, for less assets we swap with the Sharks.

If the Sharks also want a Centre or don't want Michkov, then none of that works.

Also I'm assuming Anaheim wants Fantilli and won't budge.

I'm just saying we have to really try here and throwing in a late 1st or decent prospect isn't really trying. This is a huge piece , we pay the price and take the risk.

 

[Mikah]

I think if Columbus is okay between Carlsson and Smith, and the Sharks are happy with Michkov, then it has a chance.

Columbus wants a centre, so they go to 4th and get Smith, Sharks get 5th and pick Michkov. We grab Carlsson at 3.

Or, for less assets we swap with the Sharks.

If the Sharks also want a Centre or don't want Michkov, then none of that works.

Also I'm assuming Anaheim wants Fantilli and won't budge.

I'm just saying we have to really try here and throwing in a late 1st or decent prospect isn't really trying. This is a huge piece , we pay the price and take the risk.

It would certainly be worth giving a call to the teams in the #2-3-4 spots.

You never know if one of them is seriously considering Michkov, and would be willing to swap. Florida's pick, along with perhaps some assets or additional picks could be a great incentive to a team that was already going to pick him anyways.

I think this is going to be a last minute decision, if the rumor that Michkov is coming to the draft is true. Even if he doesn't do the combine, it will be possible for teams to talk to him and have a better idea of his plans. Things can completely change depending on what he will be discussing.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Is there another franchise that always seems lands the high no-man's land pick like we do?
Seems like we get our high picks when it makes no meaningful difference who we end up picking (2012/2022) or end up right outside the clear top (2018/2023).

From what I gather, this year is either a top 4 + Smith or a top 5 with high uncertainty we'll have the guts to draft Michkov. 5OA is a gap below top 4 picks, though still more enviable than 6th.
But comparing it to last year, I wouldn't have minded picking 5th and getting a top 3 this year compared to the opposite. Guess it's just badly timed luck...

There are always players to be find. I blame more the managing of all the selections than the actual draft position.
In 2012, we drafted the best center available but a risky one due to injuries. With hindsight we should have traded down with the likes of Washington or Buffalo and get two NHLers. It was a very good draft for defemseman too.

In 2018, we were given 3rd overall and decided to fill our biggest need with the center and overlooked the powerforward or the small but dynamic defenseman in Hughes. A trade down could also had made sense so we could have collected more pieces.

In 2022, we got 1st overall and decided to go with the Powerforward instead of the small center (Cooley) or the enigmatic center.

This year, peopel are starting to freak out already if we trade down. To me it is not a bad idea if we are able to get a top prospect and collect more assets. As for Michkov, I truly want to have him but I won't lie if I said I was not scared to draft him. From 6-10 there are some amazing players too and it would suck to see them blossom while we are awaiting for Michkov to potentially arrive in 4 years.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

We are literally in the worst spot possible lol
It's absolutely incredible the luck we have ffs honestly, c'est trippant.

All year I kept telling everyone I know "we GOTTA stay top 5 at least"
But really, we all knew it was actually "gotta stay top4"
But who the hell says top4 lol
We simply blew it this year, simple as that

The only way to salvage this whole thing this year is for Michkov to miraculously be taken by one of the first 4 picks
Or, you know.. just f***ing take Michkov..

Other then that, whole year will feel like an absolute complete and utter waste, and at the WORST possible imaginable time in the rebuild

So what you're saying is that if someone in the top4 takes Michkov, we'll be ok, or if they don't pick Michkov then we can pick him and be ok.

Sounds like we're at the right place..

 

[Takeru]

I think if Columbus is okay between Carlsson and Smith, and the Sharks are happy with Michkov, then it has a chance.

Columbus wants a centre, so they go to 4th and get Smith, Sharks get 5th and pick Michkov. We grab Carlsson at 3.

Or, for less assets we swap with the Sharks.

If the Sharks also want a Centre or don't want Michkov, then none of that works.

Also I'm assuming Anaheim wants Fantilli and won't budge.

I'm just saying we have to really try here and throwing in a late 1st or decent prospect isn't really trying. This is a huge piece , we pay the price and take the risk.

Yeah, that's a lot of dominoes that have to fall right for Columbus to entertain the idea. That's basically what you're trading for, certainty and the opportunity to select the guy you want most before any other team.

I do agree we should make an agressive push for it, but I feel a cost that allow this deal to materialize hurts us more than most would like, and you have to factor that in your calculations.
Not saying I'd do it but my guess would be 3OA + balancing prospect/pick from CBJ (don't know enough about what they have) for 5OA + Slaf/Hutson. Otherwise, the guaranteed return doesn't likely justify trading down from Columbus POV.

 

[dcyhabs]

I'd say they got shafted by lottery more than ending up with subadvantageous top3 picks. The Raymond and Seider picks were still decent consolation prizes though.
Anaheim comes to mind as a comparable to Detroit.

I was referring to the fact most bottom teams got their luck at some point to draft an elite prospect, which doesn't seem to be the case for us despite many bottom finishes. Like COL, FLO, BUF, EDM, TOR, NJD, CAR even OTT got their turn.
We'll see with Slaf and who we get this year but we rarely end up with a clearly invaluable top draft pick. Mostly, we have to make the most of our position (Sergachev, Caufield, Ghule) or fall on a subpar/spread out crop (Chuck/KK/Slaf).

Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh repeatedly.

The habs need a clearly better organization to compete without tanking.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

There are too many risk involved in Michkov at pick 2 or 3...Fantilli and Carlsson...straight forward picks...great players...gifted and talented.

Every team has a different list. Stop pretending they all have the same hive mind. Anaheim just got shafted out of a generational talent. They might just want the next best thing and that's not Fantili, nor Carlsson. Both of them had great seasons, but Michkov erased a few Russian under 18 ppg records that belonged to Ovi, better D-1 in the MHL than Ovi, better DY in the KHL than Ovi.

The risk is: passing on a generational talent.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

That’s unfortunate. Would have gone a long way in reassuring teams.

I find it reassuring. That means we'll be among the handful of teams that have the inside track. I hope Hughes will weaponize this knowledge, one way or another.

 

[Takeru]

There are always players to be find. I blame more the managing of all the selections than the actual draft position.
In 2012, we drafted the best center available but a risky one due to injuries. With hindsight we should have traded down with the likes of Washington or Buffalo and get two NHLers. It was a very good draft for defemseman too.

In 2018, we were given 3rd overall and decided to fill our biggest need with the center and overlooked the powerforward or the small but dynamic defenseman in Hughes. A trade down could also had made sense so we could have collected more pieces.

In 2022, we got 1st overall and decided to go with the Powerforward instead of the small center (Cooley) or the enigmatic center.

This year, peopel are starting to freak out already if we trade down. To me it is not a bad idea if we are able to get a top prospect and collect more assets. As for Michkov, I truly want to have him but I won't lie if I said I was not scared to draft him. From 6-10 there are some amazing players too and it would suck to see them blossom while we are awaiting for Michkov to potentially arrive in 4 years.

For sure, management has its share of the blame to bear. My comment was more on how we always seem to find ourselves right outside that surefire hit zone or on years where there's no such type available. Like on most years, picking top 3 is an almost guaranteed elite top F/D just going by consensus. But we get those top 3 on years where there's no such thing, or right outside it (2018). Doesnt mean it's impossible to nail the pick but it'd be nice to have some reassurance for a change.

Like this year, top3/4 you have to go off board real bad to not get an elite player. But at 5 we don't know if we get
a) borderline generational Michkov available and we pick him
b) borderline generational Michkov available and we pick another outside the consensus top 5
c) top6 C Smith

While all those scenarios make for interesting discussions, it'd have been nice to have our pick of the juicier options at 3OA for instance.

 

[Bombshell11]

Wow what a transparent guy, it really changes from what we have in mtl



So Columbus is getting for sure Smith or Carlsson

 

[yianik]

Yeah, that's a lot of dominoes that have to fall right for Columbus to entertain the idea. That's basically what you're trading for, certainty and the opportunity to select you'll be able to select the guy you want most before any other team.

I do agree we should make an agressive push for it, but I feel a cost that allow this deal to materialize hurts us more than most would like, and you have to factor that in your calculations.
Not saying I'd do it but my guess would be 3OA + balancing prospect/pick from CBJ (don't know enough about what they have) for 5OA + Slaf/Hutson. Otherwise, the guaranteed return doesn't likely justify trading down from Columbus POV.

I wouldn't offer Hutson or Slaf

 

[Takeru]

Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh repeatedly.

The habs need a clearly better organization to compete without tanking.

For sure, I was considering the time frame during which we had our crappy seasons but if you look further back you can certainly include those as well.

Positive is even without blatantly tanking, we can certainly expect at least another top10 pick next season, barring major leaps from many of our players. Most of our Div/Conf aren't getting weaker or also have budding youngsters.

 

[River Meadow]

Wow what a transparent guy, it really changes from what we have in mtl



So Columbus is getting for sure Smith or Carlsson

Welp.

I sure am glad we won those close games with our AHL squad this year so we can miss out on the elite big Centers.

: D

 

[Takeru]

I wouldn't offer Hutson or Slaf

Oh neither would I, just believe that's what it would take for Columbus to pull the trigger. Unless they're that high on one of our other prospects, which I don't see them being.

 

[Runner77]

Wow what a transparent guy, it really changes from what we have in mtl



So Columbus is getting for sure Smith or Carlsson

Easy for him to say that when he’s got a clear shot at one of Fantilli-Carlsson-Smith for sure. If true, it also says that in their rankings, Michkov didn’t cut it or there isn’t enough of a gap for them to bypass the center they like. Good for them. Also, f*** Jarmo. We always get shafted when he picks ahead of us.

 

[Takeru]

Wow what a transparent guy, it really changes from what we have in mtl



So Columbus is getting for sure Smith or Carlsson

I mean, they can afford to tip their hand a bit more since they know who will still be available at 3OA.
A luxury we don't have drafting at 5.

Hence why I don't hold my breath that much for a trade up, though I'd welcome it

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

There are always players to be find. I blame more the managing of all the selections than the actual draft position.
In 2012, we drafted the best center available but a risky one due to injuries. With hindsight we should have traded down with the likes of Washington or Buffalo and get two NHLers. It was a very good draft for defemseman too.

In 2018, we were given 3rd overall and decided to fill our biggest need with the center and overlooked the powerforward or the small but dynamic defenseman in Hughes. A trade down could also had made sense so we could have collected more pieces.

In 2022, we got 1st overall and decided to go with the Powerforward instead of the small center (Cooley) or the enigmatic center.

This year, peopel are starting to freak out already if we trade down. To me it is not a bad idea if we are able to get a top prospect and collect more assets. As for Michkov, I truly want to have him but I won't lie if I said I was not scared to draft him. From 6-10 there are some amazing players too and it would suck to see them blossom while we are awaiting for Michkov to potentially arrive in 4 years.

I could definitely see a trade down if their choice is between Smith/Michkov (I personally like both) as they may question Smith's intangibles and Michkov may make them too nervous. We have heard over and over how they place hockey IQ and players that they think have strong character at the top of their wish list. Perhaps Dvorsky/Perreault/Wood/Barlow etc are all forwards that they believe will be better fits and would like to grab one of them while adding another high pick or good young player.

I also would not be surprised if they just took Dvorsky/Perreault/Wood/Reinbacher in that spot if they couldn't work out a deal and were not sure of Smith/Michkov.

These are not necessarily things that I would like to see but I (coincidentally lol) like all of the players that I just named. We just need to remember that HuGo have a ton of information on these players that nobody on this board and nobody running fake scouting sites has and don't be surprised if they surprise us again....