Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[MarkovsKnee]

Is there another franchise that always seems lands the high no-man's land pick like we do?
Seems like we get our high picks when it makes no meaningful difference who we end up picking (2012/2022) or end up right outside the clear top (2018/2023).

From what I gather, this year is either a top 4 + Smith or a top 5 with high uncertainty we'll have the guts to draft Michkov. 5OA is a gap below top 4 picks, though still more enviable than 6th.
But comparing it to last year, I wouldn't have minded picking 5th and getting a top 3 this year compared to the opposite. Guess it's just badly timed luck...

Lately, Detroit. They moved back from #1 to #4 in 2020. A significant drop. They drafted Raymond, but their 1st choice was Stutzle.

2017: Philadelphia & Dallas won 2 lottery spots. Pushing Detroit back from 7th to 9th. They took Rasmussen passing on Necas & Suzuki.

2018: they stayed at 6. Selecting Zadina passing on Q. Hughes, who was next pick.

2019: they fell 2 spots again as Chicago & NYR moved up. They went from 4th to 6th. They picked Seider. Finally a really good pick.

2021: they finished with #5 spot but got moved back 1 spot to #6, because Seattle joined and got spot #2. Detroit took another D, Edvinsson. Seattle got Beniers.

The last 2 drafts they held their spot #8 last year, and #9 this year.

They've had no luck or bad luck with the lottery.

 

[Runner77]

And what pick are you targeting? And before who get's drafted? I'm assuming this only happens at 4 and Carlsson is still available? Because with each rung we climg the pick will continue to get more and more expensive.

Whichever pickholders above us show interest. If more than one, then it gets interesting.

 

[Takeru]

Arpon Basu isn't a no-name..

and Engels more cryptic about it but he's also kinda hinted that they aren't 'stupid' for passing on Michkov.



Detroit.

I'd say they got shafted by lottery more than ending up with subadvantageous top3 picks. The Raymond and Seider picks were still decent consolation prizes though.
Anaheim comes to mind as a comparable to Detroit.

I was referring to the fact most bottom teams got their luck at some point to draft an elite prospect, which doesn't seem to be the case for us despite many bottom finishes. Like COL, FLO, BUF, EDM, TOR, NJD, CAR even OTT got their turn.
We'll see with Slaf and who we get this year but we rarely end up with a clearly invaluable top draft pick. Mostly, we have to make the most of our position (Sergachev, Caufield, Ghule) or fall on a subpar/spread out crop (Chuck/KK/Slaf).

 

[The Real Timo]

Habs gotta draft that guy in #11 jersey. They will not lose another game

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2...ir-un-impact-sur-le-premier-choix-du-canadien

 

[HabbyGuy]

Whichever pickholders above us show interest. If more than one, then it gets interesting.

Well if we were to trade in this draft it would only to be a move up I would imagine. Moving down from 5 doesn't make much sense to me when you think about it.

And sorry for clarification I wasn't done editing my post before you replied...

And what pick are you targeting? And before who get's drafted? I'm assuming this only happens at 4 and Carlsson is still available? Because with each rung we climb the pick will continue to get more and more expensive. I suppose pick 3 would guarantee us what we want.

So 5th pick another 1st plus Roy plus a LHD say Harris? to move up for Carlsson?

What do you think of this price? Honestly, I'm not sure if I like it or not for us or for Columbus. Especially if the consolation prize might be Michkov if we don't make the trade.

I do know I'd love to have Carlsson though. I think I could live with that trade. Reluctantly

 

[Takeru]

Lately, Detroit. They moved back from #1 to #4 in 2020. A significant drop. They drafted Raymond, but their 1st choice was Stutzle.

2017: Philadelphia & Dallas won 2 lottery spots. Pushing Detroit back from 7th to 9th. They took Rasmussen passing on Necas & Suzuki.

2018: they stayed at 6. Selecting Zadina passing on Q. Hughes, who was next pick.

2019: they fell 2 spots again as Chicago & NYR moved up. They went from 4th to 6th. They picked Seider. Finally a really good pick.

2021: they finished with #5 spot but got moved back 1 spot to #6, because Seattle joined and got spot #2. Detroit took another D, Edvinsson. Seattle got Beniers.

The last 2 drafts they held their spot #8 last year, and #9 this year.

They've had no luck or bad luck with the lottery.

To clarify my point, I wasn't simply referring to purely unlucky franchises, but to the fact that despite our relative lottery/draft position luck (1OV, two 3OA, 5OA), we always seem to land those on years where it matters less.

Like 1OA on THE year where the margin is the slimest in a half a decade between the top 4/5, then top 5 on one where a top 3 pick would actually give us decent options, but having had two 3OA on years where we'd be outside the clear top 2 or had few great options. That's quite impressive

 

[Sterling Archer]

Teams generally get in trouble when they use need as a consideration for making an early pick.

It all depends on who they think is the BPA at their draft slot. If they’re lucky, the player scores on both BPA and need but if Michkov is the clear BPA, if he’s seen as standing a tier above Carlsson and Smith and they’re not skittish about geopolitics, then it shouldn’t matter that they need a center.

I don't disagree but teams will draft be need. BJ's already said they will draft a center. Generally speaking I think it's fine to draft for positional need as long as all things considered, you're getting as close to equal a player as the non positional need player. I think where teams get into trouble is when they reach for a player who isn't projected to be as good, but fills a need and the team hopes they'll be able to develop that player into a better version. But chosing between Michkov, Carlsson, and Smith is pretty even IMO.

 

[McGees]

Pretty sure we could move up if we are ready to offer Harris, Kidney and a 2nd.

 

[Runner77]

Well if we were to trade in this draft it would only to be a move up I would imagine. Moving down from 5 doesn't make much sense to me when you think about it.

And sorry for clarification I wasn't done editing my post before you replied...

And what pick are you targeting? And before who get's drafted? I'm assuming this only happens at 4 and Carlsson is still available? Because with each rung we climb the pick will continue to get more and more expensive. I suppose pick 3 would guarantee us what we want.

So 5th pick another 1st plus Roy plus a LHD say Harris? to move up for Carlsson?

What do you think of this price? Honestly, I'm not sure if I like it or not for us or for Columbus.

Technically, it should get real expensive if we were targeting the 2OA. For the 3OA and 4OA, it’s how the counterpart approaches it. Any of these eliminates the options of taking Michkov or trading down.

I don’t know which LHD, Harris may not cut it. Doesn’t matter though since it would be trading from redundancy as an opening stance and work it from there.

 

[GalHabsGal]

Just saying... Habs will not draft Benson at 5, he is 5'10 and we are already a smurf team. Caufield, HP, Farrell ...

 

[River Meadow]

Just saying... Habs will not draft Benson at 5, he is 5'10 and we are already a smurf team. Caufield, HP, Farrell ...

If we had 1st OA we would pass on Bedard for Carlsson because of size.

 

[Runner77]

I don't disagree but teams will draft be need. BJ's already said they will draft a center. Generally speaking I think it's fine to draft for positional need as long as all things considered, you're getting as close to equal a player as the non positional need player. I think where teams get into trouble is when they reach for a player who isn't projected to be as good, but fills a need and the team hopes they'll be able to develop that player into a better version. But chosing between Michkov, Carlsson, and Smith is pretty even IMO.

I generally don’t ascribe any weight to pre-draft posturing or soundbytes by GMs. It could also be that if CBJ did say that they’ll draft a center (and meant it), they’ve already come to the conclusion that the player they’ve ranked at that slot is the BPA in their rankings and he just happens to also fill a need.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Technically, it should get real expensive if we were targeting the 2OA. For the 3OA and 4OA, it’s how the counterpart approaches it. Any of these eliminates the options of taking Michkov or trading down.

I don’t know which LHD, Harris may not cut it. Doesn’t matter though since it would be trading from redundancy as an opening stance and work it from there.

Yeah I think I'll just take the easy route and hang on to 5, I won't be very disappointed if we end up with Smith at all. I just would prefer Carlsson or Michkov.

Anyone of them would still be our best prospect.

You really don't want the option of Michkov huh? I know there's a cloud of uncertainly with the choice, but I honestly don't see Hughes passing on him at 5 if he's still there. I know I wouldn't.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Well if we were to trade in this draft it would only to be a move up I would imagine. Moving down from 5 doesn't make much sense to me when you think about it.

And sorry for clarification I wasn't done editing my post before you replied...

And what pick are you targeting? And before who get's drafted? I'm assuming this only happens at 4 and Carlsson is still available? Because with each rung we climb the pick will continue to get more and more expensive. I suppose pick 3 would guarantee us what we want.

So 5th pick another 1st plus Roy plus a LHD say Harris? to move up for Carlsson?

What do you think of this price? Honestly, I'm not sure if I like it or not for us or for Columbus. Especially if the consolation prize might be Michkov if we don't make the trade.

I do know I'd love to have Carlsson though. I think I could live with that trade. Reluctantly

Seems like an overpay if you include Roy. Harris embodies a position of strength, on the other hand.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Seems like an overpay if you include Roy. Harris embodies a position of strength, on the other hand.

Yeah staying pat seems more prudent. I really think we're all overthinking this. Just take who's left at 5. We should just exhale and enjoy our summer.

 

[Takeru]

Pretty sure we could move up if we are ready to offer Harris, Kidney and a 2nd.

Despite the saying, I don't think selling a Kidney is valuable enough for that

Joking aside, maybe SJ bites on that, though I'm not sure it's that enticing to them unless they're high on one of those pieces. The value for us depends of who's left on the board, not sure I'd do it just to get out of the Michkov conundrum but we'll see.

 

[Runner77]

Yeah I think I'll just take the easy route and hang on to 5, I won't be very disappointed if we end up with Smith at all. I just would prefer Carlsson or Michkov.

Anyone of them would still be our best prospect.

You really don't want the option of Michkov huh?

Of course you wouldn’t mind Smith. The moving up part is to guarantee at least Smith and not run the risk of having to “settle” on Michkov, assuming the Habs don’t want to pick him.

I never said I don’t want Michkov. I was working from the scenario of what could happen if the Habs absolutely don’t want him.

I also consider what I want to be highly uninteresting and irrelevant but since you brought it up, if I had my druthers, I’d simply take whoever’s left from Carlsson-Smith-Michkov. I’d only explore the cost of moving up if I had a shot at Carlsson, as a matter of due diligence and not at all costs.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Of course you wouldn’t mind Smith. The moving up part is to guarantee at least Smith and not run the risk of having to “settle” on Michkov, assuming the Habs don’t want to pick him.

I never said I don’t want Michkov. I was working from the scenario of what could happen if the Habs absolutely don’t want him.

I also consider what I want to be highly uninteresting and irrelevant but since you brought it up, if I had my druthers, I’d simply take whoever’s left from Carlsson-Smith-Michkov. I’d only explore the cost of moving up if I had a shot at Carlsson, as a matter of due diligence and not at all costs.

I guess we're more or less in the same boat then.

As I said I'm not concerned about all the noise. If Michkov is there at 5. WE WILL take him. That's just how I see it.

 

[Takeru]

Seems like an overpay if you include Roy. Harris embodies a position of strength, on the other hand.

Overpay is relative on your perspective. On one hand, you don't get CBJ attention without some form of overpayment. The magnitude of it can be worked out to limit it though.

Then you have to consider what you're getting. Say we're targetting Carlsson. Does Hughes peg him as more of a Draisatl or a PLD type? In one case, the "overpayment" is a lot more palatable in the end than in the other.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Overpay is relative on your perspective. On one hand, you don't get CBJ attention without some form of overpayment. The magnitude of it can be worked out to limit it though.

Then you have to consider what you're getting. Say we're targetting Carlsson. Does Hughes peg him as more of a Draisatl or a PLD type? In one case, the "overpayment" is a lot more palatable in the end than in the other.

This is true of any trade when attempting to "upgrade". You have to figure if the cost is worth it to you.

 

[McGees]

Despite the saying, I don't think selling a Kidney is valuable enough for that

Joking aside, maybe SJ bites on that, though I'm not sure it's that enticing to them unless they're high on one of those pieces. The value for us depends of who's left on the board, not sure I'd do it just to get out of the Michkov conundrum but we'll see.

ya I was joking as that is the classic Habs fan offer - I think you'd need more

 

[GalHabsGal]

If we had 1st OA we would pass on Bedard for Carlsson because of size.

Not for generational, Bedard >>>>> Carlson

But Benson is <<< Fantili, Carlson, Michkov, and maybe smith

for similar talents, i take smith at 6" before Benson, and Dvorsky before Benson.

if Michkov is available at 5, you pick him and run before someone call the police ...

 

[Et le But]

If Mitchkov is available at 5 and you pass on him while also not ending up with Smith or Carlsson...you are committing malpractice

 

[HabbyGuy]

Honestly this should just be our mantra leading up to the draft.

Just make the pick.
Whoever is left
Just make the pick.
Whoever is left
Just make the pick.
Whoever is left

Put up our feet and call it a day.

 

[River Meadow]

Not for generational, Bedard >>>>> Carlson

But Benson is <<< Fantili, Carlson, Michkov, and maybe smith

for similar talents, i take smith at 6" before Benson, and Dvorsky before Benson.

if Michkov is available at 5, you pick him and run before someone call the police ...

I agree, now let's ask a more interesting question...

Leonard or Dvorsky?