Can McDavid conceivably finish 2nd all-time in points?

[Juxta Position]

looking at his numbers, right now, McDavid is scoring at a 1.49 ppg clip for his career, which is a 122 point pace per season. If he were to continue that pace (unlikely) and played for 10 more years, he would end up with 2074 points.

So I looked into what it would take to beat Jágr's total of 1921 (obviously Gretzky's total of 2857 is not even remotely a possibility) and it would take a pace of 1.31 ppg, which works out to 107 points a season for 10 more years to finish his career at 1924 points.

If McDavid has 2 or 3 more seasons of 125+ points a season, is the pace of 1.31 ppg something he could maintain for another decade?

 

[The Grim Reaper]

I think it comes down to how long he wants to play the game.

 

[Peat]

For his numbers to only drop to 1.31 ppg for the next part of his career - to keep 87% of his production - would be impressive. Crosby's fell to 82%, and that's been buttressed a little by a rise in scoring.

So that part alone feels a little unlikely.

Throw in that pace would be needed to do it with perfect health, no lock outs... I'm not saying he can't do it, but I think he'll have to play for more than another 10 years.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Don't get me wrong, the Great one is the very best player to lace up by a wide margin,

But in order to reach 2000+ or even challenge Gretsky points
he would also need an acolyte that contribute to pad his stats.

I like Drai, but he not remotely providing the stats padding those guys did

 

[BallardEra]

He will hit 2000+ career points.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

When McDavid's speed starts to regress, I'll bet his effectiveness starts to regress. He won't be a plug by any means but 70-80 point seasons in the back-9 of his career won't get him to 2,000 points.

 

[abo9]

Barring injury, I think he does it. He has that kind of fire in him.

Contrary to popular belief, players on average experience a plateau in performance then a gradual decline until they turn like 35 or 36 where the decline gets sharper. It's not big drops all of a sudden.

And the most elite players show that they can continue to play at an elite level year after year. Again, barring injury and if he actually plays those games. If he retires at 34 then no he won't.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Conceivably? Yes. Likely? Not sure, obviously depends on health and how he ages but it's really just too early for me to say with any confidence. He obviously has a much better shot than anyone else alive as it stands right now.

 

[BallardEra]

He won't be a plug by any means but 70-80 point seasons in the back-9 of his career won't get him to 2,000 points.

I think they will if he plays to 40 years old like Ovie and Sid.

 

[MXD]

eh.... Absolutely?

 

[The GM]

 

[x Tame Impala]

I can’t see him being less than a 120pt player for the next 5 years at least. 2000+ points doesn’t seem out of reach at all pending a relatively healthy career.

 

[BallardEra]

After 8 seasons Crosby had 655 points. After 8 seasons McDavid has 850 points. (Almost 200 more points)

Crosby sits at 1502 career points and I feel even he has an outside chance for 2000 career points.

Crosby only had 2 more 100 point seasons after that. (104,100)

I think McDavid hitting 2000 points is a lot more realistic than people think.

 

[Soundwave]

It seems like athletes in other sports are having unusually long careers with higher production (LeBron, Brady, Djokovic) ... so I dunno, hockey is obviously a different sport but I think modern nutrition and training has also gotten much better, and McDavid seems to be all over that stuff.

 

[94 Oil Drops]

I don't think even McDavid has the longevity of Jagr. I'm willing to bet he finishes 3-5 all time though.

 

[Video Nasty]

Assuming reasonable good health, the answer is yes. He’s flirting with scoring his 1000th point at the end of this upcoming season, which would be unreal considering he missed 37 games in his rookie season and another 37 along the way wiped out due to COVID scheduling. Even if he slips back to 130, that it is even a discussion is crazy.

It also wouldn’t remotely surprise me if he’s able to beef his career PPG up higher over the next few seasons to help offset as much of the decline as possible later, enough to the point where he’ll certainly be no lower than 6th all time when he retires and possibly ahead of Dionne. The fact that he could climb ahead of Bossy in this era and be there as late as 9 seasons into his career is mind boggling.

If he can play 20 seasons like many of the all-time greats have, he’s already at the point where he’s lowered his needed average to reach 2000 points to less than 96 points per season. Another 150 campaign drops it 91. To simply pass Jagr, it’s “only” 89 points per season the rest of the way as of this moment.

I like his chances so far.

 

[FlameChampion]

Will be interesting to see how McDavid adjusts as his speed eventually goes.

Hes obviously a smart player. He will probably always have good speed and hands even as he ages.

I wonder if him slowing down a bit will make it easier for teammates to play with him. I dont think hes very easy to play with because he plays at such a high speed. But as he ages, it might actually help his linemates.

 

[blankall]

McDavid seems to especially rely on his speed. I can't see him putting up 120+ points into his mid thirties. It's also a longevity issue. Jagr, Messier, Howe, and Ron Francis (#2-5) all had out of the ordinary longevity and a lack of major injuries. Could McDavid have that kind of career? Sure. It's not a guarantee though. To look at how suddenly things can change, look at Bobby Orr. In 1974 he looked like he was going to be the "Great one". In 1975 he has surgery and never comes back the same. He hobbles through a few more seasons and then it's over.

 

[Kranix]

When McDavid's speed starts to regress, I'll bet his effectiveness starts to regress. He won't be a plug by any means but 70-80 point seasons in the back-9 of his career won't get him to 2,000 points.

If he's a 120 point player until 31, and then averages a ppg until 38-39 he'll crack 2000 points.

 

[ManofSteel55]

McDavid needs to put up over 1000 more points in his career to pass Jagr for 2nd, assuming of course that Jagr doesn't return. Let's talk numbers a bit.

Does McDavid have any more 150 point seasons in him? I think he probably has one or two at least, but league scoring could dip, he could have injuries. So let's say even if he hits 150 a couple more times in back to back seasons, he still would need 700 more points racked up after he hit 28 years old. Is that possible? Of course its possible, but he would need no major injuries, the drive to play into his late 30s and to remain at near elite levels of scoring for a majority of that time.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Possible? Yeah

Likely? Eh, that's tough. A lot has to break the right way for him with health and longevity

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I would be a bit reluctant to say yes. He'll obviously need to stay healthy, but I also wonder what kind of player he'll be after 33 or so, when the legs typically start to slow. He's such a terrific skater that I think he'll have longevity like Marleau, but how long will he be a dominant offensive threat if goes from a 99th percentile skater to a 80th percent skater?

If he wants, he could probably play until 40. And if that's the case, 2k points seems a lot more doable.

 

[Kerberos]

When McDavid's speed starts to regress, I'll bet his effectiveness starts to regress. He won't be a plug by any means but 70-80 point seasons in the back-9 of his career won't get him to 2,000 points.

Tell us you don't watch McDavid without telling us you don't watch McDavid.

Speed is one aspect of his game. There are numerous other facets of his game that will age well.

 

[HockeyShack]

I'm going with no for hitting 2000

Has to play too elite for too long to get it.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I think he does, but I also think people here are downplaying how harsh aging hits guys. We are seeing peak McDavid in the highest scoring era in 30 years. Scoring will drop again, and combined with his decreased productivity, will be a fairly harsh back 9.

All-time points leaders on their 27th birthdays (McDavid hits it this January), minimum 750 points

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Games Played[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Assists[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]PPG[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky[/TD]
[TD]670[/TD]
[TD]573[/TD]
[TD]1033[/TD]
[TD]1606[/TD]
[TD]2.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]517[/TD]
[TD]408[/TD]
[TD]606[/TD]
[TD]1014[/TD]
[TD]1.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dale Hawerchuk[/TD]
[TD]713[/TD]
[TD]379[/TD]
[TD]550[/TD]
[TD]929[/TD]
[TD]1.30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steve Yzerman[/TD]
[TD]673[/TD]
[TD]387[/TD]
[TD]516[/TD]
[TD]903[/TD]
[TD]1.34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Orr[/TD]
[TD]613[/TD]
[TD]252[/TD]
[TD]607[/TD]
[TD]859[/TD]
[TD]1.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Connor McDavid[/TD]
[TD]569[/TD]
[TD]303[/TD]
[TD]547[/TD]
[TD]850[/TD]
[TD]1.49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bryan Trottier[/TD]
[TD]620[/TD]
[TD]312[/TD]
[TD]537[/TD]
[TD]849[/TD]
[TD]1.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaromir Jagr[/TD]
[TD]633[/TD]
[TD]328[/TD]
[TD]492[/TD]
[TD]820[/TD]
[TD]1.30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Bossy[/TD]
[TD]509[/TD]
[TD]403[/TD]
[TD]372[/TD]
[TD]775[/TD]
[TD]1.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sidney Crosby[/TD]
[TD]550[/TD]
[TD]274[/TD]
[TD]495[/TD]
[TD]769[/TD]
[TD]1.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

This was all done manually, so I may be missing someone (also checked Sakic, Coffey, Bourque, Ovechkin, Perreault, Howe, Messier, Mikita, Esposito, Hull, Beliveau, Clarke)

Only 10 players have hit 750 points by their 27th birthdays. McDavid still has ~30 games left so has a decent shot at surpassing Yzerman.

But the above list also shows how much the 90s scoring drop hit these players in their 30s.

I still think McDavid hits 2nd, but it's going to take some serious heat in his 30s.