Under the new CBA extension, the salary cap is going to be flat for two years, and then undergo only a modest increase for the third. While only the Pens' situation seems to have leaked, it's probable that multiple teams will decide to ride out the leaner times without fans in 2021 (and respond to lost 2020 playoff revenue) by temporarily reducing payroll. How many teams will opt for that course remains to be seen, but a short round of belt tightening looks like the order of the day.
The pertinent question is not whether Team X matches an offer sheet, but rather would any Team Y tender one in the first place, especially in the superstar tier?
Who is eager to devote $11.5M a year to an offer sheet in these uncertain economic times (other than fans spending someone else's money, presumably)? Who wants to give up the benefits that accrue from using multiple good draft picks in a challenging and uncertain economy? Good players on ELCs are more valuable than ever.
The safe money would be that teams would want to give very large offer sheets, never exactly popular in optimal circumstances, a pass for a little while. They'll probably want to hoard their high draft picks. Shrug.