Series Talk: [C2] Dallas Stars vs [C3] Colorado Avalanche | Stars lead 2-1

Who wins


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Avs in 5, since the 4 nations cup has finished the Stars underlying numbers have been disgustingly bad (Obviously not having Heiskanen plays a big role in that, but Heiskanen is likely out for this round or if he does return, it's going to be a compromised version of Heiskaken). The Stars are in very deep trouble, their best chance was to win their division and play the Wild in r1 but instead they're cooked.
 
Avs in 5, since the 4 nations cup has finished the Stars underlying numbers have been disgustingly bad (Obviously not having Heiskanen plays a big role in that, but Heiskanen is likely out for this round or if he does return, it's going to be a compromised version of Heiskaken). The Stars are in very deep trouble, their best chance was to win their division and play the Wild in r1 but instead they're cooked.

Their xGoal diff has fallen off a cliff since February.

 
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Cheering for Dallas, but I think Colorado takes this. The Avs have improved since their matchup last season, and Heiskanen being out (or not 100% if he plays) makes it hard for me to pick the Stars.

And if history tells us anything about Avs/Stars playoff series, it's that the Avs win in R1, and the Stars win in R2 and the WCF.
Yep. Now that I think about it, that is correct. 4 hard-fought 2nd/3rd wins for the Stars vs the Avs, and 2 utter humiliations at their hands in successive round 1 contests in 2004 and 2006. Soon to be 3 humiliations
 
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Their xGoal diff has fallen off a cliff since February.



It totally matches the trajectory of their season. They needed to finish 1st in their division so bad but losing their 3 goal lead to us in the final minute seemed to really put the nail in the coffin for that.
 
Stars in 6, unless Landeskog comes back. That kind of energy boost can turn a series around. Otherwise it's gonna be the same story as last year -- depth vs top end
 
Before picking an option I'd like to clarify few points:
1) Is MacKinnon resting or is he injured? He hasn't played since 8th of April.
2) What's the status on Landeskog?
3) Is Nichushkin gonna stay in a shared room with a teammate or is he gonna share it it with a lady of the night and substances mixed with spirits? Any rumors on his plans for these playoffs?
 
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Their xGoal diff has fallen off a cliff since February.



Final game scores should be decided by xGF. I think most educated advanced stats proponents would agree that the goals actually scored in games mean very little. A team can win 7-3 (like today's FLA and NJD game) yet get destroyed in xGF. FLA should've clearly won and were the better team. In my opinion (and I think I speak for the entire advanced stats community), the final game scores should be revised to reflect the xGF - in the above case FLA would've decidedly won. It's really not fair that the worse team over the entire game gets the W.
 
I don’t know if Dallas has an answer for Makar, both teams have firepower but I think Makar flips this series and takes over.

Avs in 6

Heiskanen has 2 MVP caliber runs under his belt but missing the start and coming back from a knee surgery..
 
Stars with some injury troubles and not much confidence right now.

Oettinger better be ready and focused.

Can't wait to see how motivated Rantanen will be.

MacKinnon and Makar live for these type of match-ups.

Nevertheless, this series will be war on ice. I expect a lot of fun an drama.
 
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Before picking an option I'd like to clarify few points:
1) Is MacKinnon resting or is he injured? He hasn't played since 8th of April.
2) What's the status on Landeskog?
3) Is Nichushkin gonna stay in a shared room with a teammate or is he gonna share it it with a lady of the night and substances mixed with spirits? Any rumors on his plans for these playoffs?
MacK is ready to go
Landy seems ready to go, played back to back in the AHL (might do one more?)
That last one is the biggest thing, we shall see
 
Before picking an option I'd like to clarify few points:
1) Is MacKinnon resting or is he injured? He hasn't played since 8th of April.
2) What's the status on Landeskog?
3) Is Nichushkin gonna stay in a shared room with a teammate or is he gonna share it it with a lady of the night and substances mixed with spirits? Any rumors on his plans for these playoffs?
1 - a bit of both. Minor injury and resting
2 - barring a change, he’s playing. Debate as to whether it’s right away game 1 or wait for a home game 3. My guess is game 1
3 - Nuke hasn’t shared his schedule with us.
 
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Avs in 5, since the 4 nations cup has finished the Stars underlying numbers have been disgustingly bad (Obviously not having Heiskanen plays a big role in that, but Heiskanen is likely out for this round or if he does return, it's going to be a compromised version of Heiskaken). The Stars are in very deep trouble, their best chance was to win their division and play the Wild in r1 but instead they're cooked.

Yeah, Dallas was looking much better a few months ago, dare I say four dominant lines, but with good puck movement and goaltending as well. Losing Heiskanen really hurts that puck movement which puts more pressure on Oettinger and also on the forwards. Dallas is loaded with good forwards, but outside of Hintz and Duchene I can't think of too many players that enjoy bringing the puck into the zone, I know Rantanen isn't the biggest fan these days, nor is Benn or Seguin. It'll be an interesting series.
 
Heiskanen has 2 MVP caliber runs under his belt but missing the start and coming back from a knee surgery..
Heiskanen is definitely a tear below Makar, but if he were playing it would really make this series a coin flip for me.

From my understanding he isn’t playing this series? Even if he does who knows what he looks life if he’s rushing back from knee surgery.
 
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Due to Heiskanen out for the beginning of this series and Landeskog return
I will take Colorado in 5.
Why in 5 ?
Colorado will rest for another couple of days and Stars still a game to play.
Colorado resting players give them a big advantage
 
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