I would say that’s probably the high end of his range. It’d need to be like a Will Smith or Ryan Leonard type season where it goes very well and almost all the discussion about him is very positive with him rising throughout the season.
But it’s possible. Usually someone (or a few) other than the early hyped NTDP guys (Hagens, Eiserman, Hutson) steps up and helps their draft stock. I think the best candidates from this team are probably Bednarik, Skahan, Emery, Lapointe, Van Vliet.
We'll see who does what, but a lot of these early lists are based off the WJC18 and I find that a lot of the discourse around the NTDP players in their U17 season is very superficial and not thorough enough. Hutson is very good, but he's a 5'8 defenseman. I'd be shocked if most early private lists from teams didn't have Skahan as the better player, but the U18's last year didn't need a big defensive defenseman. They needed an offensive defenseman, so Hutson (who is very good) plays on that team, does very well, and people all of a sudden talk about him as like the second best American prospect in this draft. Bednarik could've very easily been promoted, but he was borderline for a promotion and didn't get it. Part of why he's getting very underrated right now. Instead, he assumed the 1C role after Hagens left and did very well.
The minutes and role should be there next season . He’ll most likely be the 2C behind Hagens, and play in every situation. There’s no way of knowing this because this information isn’t available, but I’d guess he played the third most among the forwards last season after Hagens and Eiserman, and he might even have been second because Eiserman doesn’t really PK.
Could also go the wrong way, and he falls into the second round if his scoring ability doesn't see an uptick from his U17 season. His numbers are pretty similar to players like Leonard, Snuggerud, Gauthier in his U17 season, but then also similar to players like McGroarty that held steady or even dropped a little (and still went in the first round), yet also one of the players right ahead of him on the All-Time U17 PPG charts at the NTDP is Wilmer, whose stock dropped a lot, and didn't get drafted. So it's very hard to know. Outside of a few players, it's very dependent on how the U18 season goes for most guys, and Bednarik is one of those players. Wouldn't be surprised if he went 5th. Wouldn't be surprised if he went 35.