C Jay O'Brien - Charlotte Checkers, AHL (2018, 19th, PHI released)

[Brodeur]

Yes a bit unfair if a player is saying "hey I'm ready to sign" and the team says "get lost" if they'd rather have the 2nd round pick... when if the player was picked in any other round, they'd get signed by the drafting team.

Some sort of bonafide offer procedure should be in place in a perfect world, so that you only get the comp pick if you made a real attempt to sign the player. It's not like it's ever a matter of haggling over details given ELC salaries.

Getting into the weeds of it, I believe the CBA does requires an offer to have been made at some point in order to the compensatory pick. I'm reminded of the odd case with Mathieu Chouinard. He was drafted in the first round in 1998 by Ottawa. A week later, Sens GM Pierre Gauthier quit and was replaced by Rick Dudley. A year later, Dudley bailed on Ottawa to become GM of Tampa. He was replaced by Marshall Johnston. Through the front office turmoil, Chouinard said he had minimal contact with the team. When his rights were about to expire in June 2000, he said Ottawa presented his agent with a low ball offer and said take it or leave it. Chouinard was offended, declined to sign and re-entered the draft, Ottawa got the 45th pick as compensation. Ottawa then took Chouinard with that pick. I think Chouinard punched a wall when he found out.

 

[bigdog16]

The biggest issue is really that the USHL is such a midwestern League that east coast kids are somewhat hesitant to leave too far away from home when the prep schools have historically been a strong route to college hockey. They're also in the QMJHL region, most do not going to go that route and have to play in a place where english is not the native language.

Let's go through MA-born NHL players:

Jack Eichel - USNDTP
Matt Boldy - USNDTP
Matty Beniers - USNDTP
Chris Kreider - Prep School (3 years NCAA)
Kevin Hayes - Prep School (4 years NCAA)
Conor Garland - QMJHL
Charlie Coyle - Prep school then East Coast Junior Hockey (essentially Tier II USA), then 1.5 year of NCAA then bolted mid-season for QMJHL
Frank Vatrano - USNDTP
Noah Hanifin - USNDTP
Conor Sheary - Prep School (4 years NCAA)
John Carlson (although he grew up in New Jersey) - USHL then OHL (after being drafted, was OHL eligible because he moved to Indianapolis prior)
Ryan Donato - Prep School (3 years NCAA)
Matt Grzelcyk - USNDTP
Jimmy Vesey - Prep school then East Coast Junior Hockey (see Coyle) (4 years NCAA)
John Marino - USPHL (I think breakway Tier II, but east-coast based) then USHL (after getting drafted) (3 years NCAA)
Jordan Harris - Prep School (4 years NCAA)
Colin White - USNDTP
Colin Blackwell - Prep School (4 years NCAA)

Part of the issue is the USNDTP is just so all-encompassing of an engulfer of top American talent from all over the country. USA Hockey is essentially getting to hand-select the best 25 players in the country and remove them from the rest of the ecosystem. A lot of the best kids heading into their Age 16 year old season remain the best kids and they get all the USA Hockey resources flushed upon them, so a bunch of them go on to the NHL of course.

For the later bloomers, it's tough. This is a bigger issue as the share of American drafted players has been increasing, there was a time when not being a Top 25 player by that age probably meant you were a longshot, but that's more and more no longer the case. But since you weren't a Top 25 player, you may not be thinking as seriously about the best possible path to making the NHL and your focus is more directed towards college, where the prep schools combo of hockey and academics can put you in a good position to succeed. But this means you're gonna be a bit behind the eight-ball for the ones that do continue to get better and can seriously work towards the NHL, which is why you see the ones that did make it turn out to be much longer term projects.

If there simply was no USNDTP, I think Junior Hockey in the USA could seriously be overhauled in a positive way for the longterm future of a broader base of players than simply the 25 special darlings that earn the USNDTP golden ticket. I imagine the USHL would be more like an overall umbrella organization and there would be multiple functioning leagues representing the Western States, the Midwest and the East Coast. Essentially what you see in Canada with the QMJHL, OHL and WHL. Just expanding the existing USHL probably doesn't work, country is way too spread out to support that kind of travel for junior hockey. The best talent wouldn't get plucked off to USNDTP and would all be going to head to head with each other in a diffused system that gives the "non-Top 25" kids time to catch up prior to the NHL Draft.

In many ways, I think the USA has outgrown the need for a USNDTP, and I think that they can care to sacrifice some U18 tournament success to create a system that is more favorable to a much broader base of players. I know that's never going to happen though, and it'll continue to focus on the exceptional kids and swallowing up many of USA Hockey's resources in the way it does now.

Hard disagree here, NTDP is one of the best things to happen to USA Hockey and we have seen a massive influx of star NHL players from the USA because of it.

Junior hockey wouldn’t just be able to undergo an “overhaul”. It isn’t USA Hockey controlling these junior leagues. At the end of the day junior hockey is a business.

The setup right now is the best it has ever been. The USHL has grown into a league strong enough that the studs from the northeast will leave, studs from Minnesota will leave. It never used to be like that and it is what you want

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

 

[bigdog16]

An AHL deal is a far cry from what many here thought

 

[HockeyVirus]

Makes perfect sense for the Leafs if for no other reason they just got a fairly recent first round pick into the org. Likely a bust but who knows with development. They have amazing NHL level staff in the AHL and he will have a chance here.

And if he busts, oh well. Costs nothing but money. But there was a reason he was a first, there is potential even if it is as a depth forward.

 

[LeafChief]

I like this as an AHL deal. I wouldn't have been too pleased had they given him an ELC.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Hasn't played at all for the Marlies in the A. Wonder if he's still hurt.

Never understood why the Flyers took a massive gamble in the 1st round on him. Late birthday who had essentially zero USHL experience in his 17 and 18 year old seasons. No one had a clue on how he'd do against real competition. The jump straight from prep school to NCAA is extremely large, and he obviously failed at Providence.

 

[VanIsle23]

Any news on this guy? If he doesn't play in the AHL season his NA career is probably over.

 

[Flukeshot]

Hasn't played at all for the Marlies in the A. Wonder if he's still hurt.

Never understood why the Flyers took a massive gamble in the 1st round on him. Late birthday who had essentially zero USHL experience in his 17 and 18 year old seasons. No one had a clue on how he'd do against real competition. The jump straight from prep school to NCAA is extremely large, and he obviously failed at Providence.

It was an incredibly unnecessary gamble. Seemed like they went swinging because they had two 1sts that year and were willing to miss on one. Just poor asset management.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

It was an incredibly unnecessary gamble. Seemed like they went swinging because they had two 1sts that year and were willing to miss on one. Just poor asset management.

Not at all. It's a fairly common roster building strategy. As we're seeing with the emergence of some of the young talent, the Flyers have ample young scorers in the pipeline.

Much like New Jersey did with players like Michael McLeod and Stillman, using a late first for a power type player and then hoping he develops is part of building a complete roster.

That O'Brien didn't reach his potential was more on the player and extenuating circumstances than it is on the Flyers' scouts.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Not at all. It's a fairly common roster building strategy. As we're seeing with the emergence of some of the young talent, the Flyers have ample young scorers in the pipeline.

Much like New Jersey did with players like Michael McLeod and Stillman, using a late first for a power type player and then hoping he develops is part of building a complete roster.

That O'Brien didn't reach his potential was more on the player and extenuating circumstances than it is on the Flyers' scouts.

Lol no, O'Brien had proved nothing against NCAA caliber competition on a consistent basis and was a late birthday. There were better gambles to take (ex: Miller, proven with the NTDP, athletic build; Sandin, stepped right into the O and produced in his DY; Veleno, high floor speed). If you really want to gamble that much, trade back.

 

[bigdog16]

Hasn't played at all for the Marlies in the A. Wonder if he's still hurt.

Never understood why the Flyers took a massive gamble in the 1st round on him. Late birthday who had essentially zero USHL experience in his 17 and 18 year old seasons. No one had a clue on how he'd do against real competition. The jump straight from prep school to NCAA is extremely large, and he obviously failed at Providence.

Flyers saw something in him. The competition argument isn’t valid as guys have gone in the 1st while playing bad compeition. Chris Kreider for example. They had to have loved the kid and heard there was a team behind them interested

Lol no, O'Brien had proved nothing against NCAA caliber competition on a consistent basis and was a late birthday. There were better gambles to take (ex: Miller, proven with the NTDP, athletic build; Sandin, stepped right into the O and produced in his DY; Veleno, high floor speed). If you really want to gamble that much, trade back.

Again they had to have heard someone else was interested. The general consensus around him was a late 2nd-3rd rounder at the time.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Flyers saw something in him. The competition argument isn’t valid as guys have gone in the 1st while playing bad compeition. Chris Kreider for example. They had to have loved the kid and heard there was a team behind them interested

Again they had to have heard someone else was interested. The general consensus around him was a late 2nd-3rd rounder at the time.

The competition argument is a very valid argument, as few high caliber guys exclusively play HS or HS-Prep in their DY, especially since Hayes and Kreider. At least Mittelstadt had the 24 game sample size in the USHL where he produced extremely well.

 

[bigdog16]

The competition argument is a very valid argument, as few high caliber guys exclusively play HS or HS-Prep in their DY, especially since Hayes and Kreider. At least Mittelstadt had the 24 game sample size in the USHL where he produced extremely well.

Not really, because there are plenty of players drafted who had bad competition and ended up being NHL players

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Not really, because there are plenty of players drafted who had bad competition and ended up being NHL players

There's a major difference between using a 1st round pick on a very unproven player versus using a 3rd or 4th round pick on said player. No Canadiens fans care that they used a 4th round pick on Blake Biondi (USHS-MN) in 2020; they would be very perplexed/upset if they used their 1st round pick on Biondi.

 

[sansabri]

There's a major difference between using a 1st round pick on a very unproven player versus using a 3rd or 4th round pick on said player. No Canadiens fans care that they used a 4th round pick on Blake Biondi (USHS-MN) in 2020; they would be very perplexed/upset if they used their 1st round pick on Biondi.

we've seen BCHL picks go pretty high

 

[BondraTime]

Flyers saw something in him. The competition argument isn’t valid as guys have gone in the 1st while playing bad compeition. Chris Kreider for example. They had to have loved the kid and heard there was a team behind them interested

Again they had to have heard someone else was interested. The general consensus around him was a late 2nd-3rd rounder at the time.

He was ranked 34th on McKenzies list, NHL scouts were high on him, for a reason I never understood at the time, but the consensus was he was going to be taken by some team in the first, Philadelphia just happened to be the unlucky team to jump on that grenade.

If they never, another team would have.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

we've seen BCHL picks go pretty high

BCHL >>>>>>>> USHS-MN & USHS-Prep

Riley Tufte (underwhelming USHL short sample track record, USHS-MN) & Mark Jankowski (CA-HS) were extreme reaches as well.

 

[gifted88]

Makar was drafted out of the AJHL. There were doubters due to the level of competition in the AJHL.

 

[bigdog16]

There's a major difference between using a 1st round pick on a very unproven player versus using a 3rd or 4th round pick on said player. No Canadiens fans care that they used a 4th round pick on Blake Biondi (USHS-MN) in 2020; they would be very perplexed/upset if they used their 1st round pick on Biondi.

I get that, but there are success stories. I just mentioned a guy like Kreider who was in a similar situation. Like you said there have been swings and misses and its a big reason why those guys don’t get drafted higher. Lacombe was a recent higher pick who seems to be working out. It was pointed out the Flyers had 2 firsts that draft so it makes sense why they swung for the fences.

He was ranked 34th on McKenzies list, NHL scouts were high on him, for a reason I never understood at the time, but the consensus was he was going to be taken by some team in the first, Philadelphia just happened to be the unlucky team to jump on that grenade.

If they never, another team would have.

I didn’t even look at McKenzie’s list which is normally indicative of the teams consensus. I saw a few other rankings and he was 60-90 range. Philly must have really liked him and if they didn’t, someone else would have grabbed him.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I get that, but there are success stories. I just mentioned a guy like Kreider who was in a similar situation. Like you said there have been swings and misses and its a big reason why those guys don’t get drafted higher. Lacombe was a recent higher pick who seems to be working out. It was pointed out the Flyers had 2 firsts that draft so it makes sense why they swung for the fences.


I didn’t even look at McKenzie’s list which is normally indicative of the teams consensus. I saw a few other rankings and he was 60-90 range. Philly must have really liked him and if they didn’t, someone else would have grabbed him.

LaCombe is playing in the league but isn't doing particularly well on a bad Ducks team.

O'Brien was massively overrated and the Flyers reached, it's that simple.

 

[bigdog16]

LaCombe is playing in the league but isn't doing particularly well on a bad Ducks team.

O'Brien was massively overrated and the Flyers reached, it's that simple.

I mean sure, its easy to say that in hindsight

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I mean sure, its easy to say that in hindsight

Nah, this was my thought at the time

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Is O'Brien ever going to play a pro game?

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Anyone know a Marlies beat writer?