Byron Bader draft rankings

[BerthMania]

Hi everyone,

I don't know this guy, but I saw his list on my Facebook feed. He says he bases himself on some advanced statistics, but doesn't say what statistics (unless you pay 25$/year)

So I was wondering if some of you know him/have an opinion on his list. Because he has some surprising takes (specially Slafkovsky)

Here's the list: The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2022)

 

[Static]

It's completely production-based, which has its pros and cons. In general I like his stuff because it cuts through all the narratives, but stats as always need to be viewed in proper context.

 

[Hale The Villain]

The only person other than him that likes this list is Kyle Dubas.

Why anyone pays attention to this guy is beyond me. Another guy who's scouting is done by looking at the box score.

 

[Jaynki]

The only person other than him that likes this list is Kyle Dubas.

Why anyone pays attention to this guy is beyond me. Another guy who's scouting is done by looking at the box score.

Although it has its flaws, pure production is still the best way to lay odds on player chance to hit their potential.

Scouting only with this is foolish and ranking Slaf 16th based on this is also foolish. Especially considering that his algorithm dont take into account international tournament.

But totally ignoring it is also foolish. Remember thats its also only odds and probability at the end of the day.

 

[BerthMania]

If he only uses stats, how come Jordan Dumais isn't top 10? He had a better offensive season then Wright lol.

 

[Static]

The only person other than him that likes this list is Kyle Dubas.

Why anyone pays attention to this guy is beyond me. Another guy who's scouting is done by looking at the box score.

It's amusing when people blast extreme views with extremism of their own. It's the same thing.

His model has proven to be pretty accurate, but everything should be taken in moderation and context.

If he only uses stats, how come Jordan Dumais isn't top 10? He had a better offensive season then Wright lol.

That's a great question

 

[Peasy]

The only person other than him that likes this list is Kyle Dubas.

Why anyone pays attention to this guy is beyond me. Another guy who's scouting is done by looking at the box score.

You say this as if Dubas has a horrible drafting record

Man has done way better than the people that were in charge before him.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Here's what the list is actually ranking:

The only person other than him that likes this list is Kyle Dubas.

Why anyone pays attention to this guy is beyond me. Another guy who's scouting is done by looking at the box score.

Toronto has drafted way better than you would expect given their picks under Dubas.

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's amusing when people blast extreme views with extremism of their own. It's the same thing.

His model has proven to be pretty accurate, but everything should be taken in moderation and context.

Dude what are you talking about? Look at his 2020 and 2021 rankings:

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2020)

We introduce the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2020 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve, league-specific p…

hockeyprospecting.com

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2021)

Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2021 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve, league-specific pa…

hockeyprospecting.com

The rankings generated by his model are laughably bad.

 

[Static]

Dude what are you talking about? Look at his 2020 and 2021 rankings:

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2020)

We introduce the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2020 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve, league-specific p…

hockeyprospecting.com

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2021)

Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2021 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve, league-specific pa…

hockeyprospecting.com

The rankings generated by his model are laughably bad.

Why are you auditing drafts from one and two years ago? Those results won't be known for a decade.

If he only uses stats, how come Jordan Dumais isn't top 10? He had a better offensive season then Wright lol.

I asked him, this was his response:




So it seems he still has somewhat of an opinion baked into the production rankings.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Why are you auditing drafts from one and two years ago? Those results won't be known for a decade.

I think it’s more just the fact at how badly they look so quickly. Like Stutzle at 10? Not ranking Schneider. The fact that 1 and 2 years later some of places he has guys listed is laughably bad says a lot. The reality is if you drafted off of his list in the first round of the last couple years there’s a good chance you aren’t feeling so good about your pick.

You might do well in the later rounds as there’s always guys who put up very good numbers who get overlooked but then turn out good.


Bader’s model and rankings shouldn’t carry much weight. It’s a tool to look at but it’s only a small piece of evaluating a prospect.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Why are you auditing drafts from one and two years ago? Those results won't be known for a decade.

You don't need to wait a decade to know ranking Nybeck and Pashin over Sanderson, Lundell and Quinn is disqualifying.

If he were to suggest that in an actual scouting meeting he'd be fired on the spot and denied his severance.

 

[Static]

I think it’s more just the fact at how badly they look so quickly. Like Stutzle at 10? Not ranking Schneider. The fact that 1 and 2 years later some of places he has guys listed is laughably bad says a lot. The reality is if you drafted off of his list in the first round of the last couple years there’s a good chance you aren’t feeling so good about your pick.

You might do well in the later rounds as there’s always guys who put up very good numbers who get overlooked but then turn out good.

I'd be more interested to see how is rankings shake out after the proper amount of time. Like button's lists, they probably look better and better as time goes by.

You don't need to wait a decade to know ranking Nybeck and Pashin over Sanderson, Lundell and Quinn is disqualifying.

If he were to suggest that in an actual scouting meeting he'd be fired on the spot and denied his severance.

This doesn't mean anything, though. Draft lists are littered with consensus top picks who bust.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

His model has proven to be pretty accurate, but everything should be taken in moderation and context.

Where is this coming from? His model hasn’t proven to be accurate at all other than in getting some later steals from guys with great production who get passed over (doesn’t really take a model to see the production though).

 

[Static]

Where is this coming from? His model hasn’t proven to be accurate at all other than in getting some later steals from guys with great production who get passed over (doesn’t really take a model to see the production though).

It comes from viewing his model results. His hit rate for productive NHL players is quite high

 

[BondraTime]

Kind of makes you think what the f*** is going on when Lindros is the 3rd closest comparison going back 30 years for Rossi's star and NHL success.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I'd be more interested to see how is rankings shake out after the proper amount of time. Like button's lists, they probably look better and better as time goes by.

His rankings look terrible already and a lot of the guys he ranked are very likely to much worse over time. It’s mostly seen in guys who were seen as good prospects who he ranked much lower but have now turned out really well so far. I’ve seen a lists of the rankings that look terrible already a year or two in.

He’s using NHLe which isn’t something new and isn’t that great of a stat. You simply can’t make rankings purely off of production (with all international games left out) and expect them to be half-decent.
It’s a nice tool to use alongside actually evaluating a prospect but it’s only a small part and on its own it isn’t very good.

It comes from viewing his model results. His hit rate for productive NHL players is quite high

What the hell are you talking about? Where is that coming from? Please show me

 

[Static]

His rankings look terrible already and a lot of the guys he ranked are very likely to much worse over time.
What the hell are you talking about? Where is that coming from? Please show me

I think the disconnect between you and I is there is an acceptable failure rate among consensus rankings that doesn't exist for rankings that don't follow the common path. That is a fallacy. We can comb over any number of rankings and find the same level of failures.

And I can't "show" you, his stuff is pay-walled.

 

[bsu]

His rankings look terrible already and a lot of the guys he ranked are very likely to much worse over time. It’s mostly seen in guys who were seen as good prospects who he ranked much lower but have now turned out really well so far. I’ve seen a lists of the rankings that look terrible already a year or two in.

He’s using NHLe which isn’t something new and isn’t that great of a stat. You simply can’t make rankings purely off of production (with all international games left out) and expect them to be half-decent.
It’s a nice tool to use alongside actually evaluating a prospect but it’s only a small part and on its own it isn’t very good.


What the hell are you talking about? Where is that coming from? Please show me

Are you that mad that Slaf is low on his list? Jesus it's just another list dude relax. If you think the list sucks don't look at it or take it serious.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Are you that mad that Slaf is low on his list? Jesus it's just another list dude relax. If you think the list sucks don't look at it or take it serious.

No I was responding to someone else’s post and I just think the guy gets way to much credit for what he’s doing and is taken too seriously. His rankings turn out bad pretty quickly.


And then there’s this today. For a guy who bases his rankings on pure production you would think he would at least make sure he puts the right numbers in. I’d guess from this that all of his numbers on USDP players are possibly messed up.

I think the disconnect between you and I is there is an acceptable failure rate among consensus rankings that doesn't exist for rankings that don't follow the common path. That is a fallacy. We can comb over any number of rankings and find the same level of failures.

And I can't "show" you, his stuff is pay-walled.

There’s absolutely an acceptable failure rate. But what you’re saying just isn’t true. It is very obvious that his rankings are much worse than anybody else’s. He’s not using any special stats or advanced analytics. He’s quite literally just looking at production man. Anyone can do that. Any half decent scout who looks at the numbers but also spends hours and hours watching and evaluating the prospects will come up with better rankings.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Very odd his model rewards a small defender in Hutson but not a small forward in Dumais?

 

[BondraTime]

No I was responding to someone else’s post and I just think the guy gets way to much credit for what he’s doing and is taken too seriously. His rankings turn out bad pretty quickly.


And then there’s this today. For a guy who bases his rankings on pure production you would think he would at least make sure he puts the right numbers in. I’d guess from this that all of his numbers on USDP players are possibly messed up.

Did he just add the USHL and USDP numbers from the elite prospects page without realizing USDP is just every game played?

Grimaldi only scored 39 as well

That's real funny if so

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Did he just add the USHL and USDP numbers from the elite prospects page without realizing USDP is just every game played?

That's real funny if so

He did indeed. And plugged it into his model.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Did he just add the USHL and USDP numbers from the elite prospects page without realizing USDP is just every game played?

Grimaldi only scored 39 as well

That's real funny if so

I think that tells you all you need to know about this guy.

 

[Static]

No I was responding to someone else’s post and I just think the guy gets way to much credit for what he’s doing and is taken too seriously. His rankings turn out bad pretty quickly.


And then there’s this today. For a guy who bases his rankings on pure production you would think he would at least make sure he puts the right numbers in. I’d guess from this that all of his numbers on USDP players are possibly messed up.


There’s absolutely an acceptable failure rate. But what you’re saying just isn’t true. It is very obvious that his rankings are much worse than anybody else’s. He’s not using any special stats or advanced analytics. He’s quite literally just looking at production man. Anyone can do that. Any half decent scout who looks at the numbers but also spends hours and hours watching and evaluating the prospects will come up with better rankings.

What am i saying that isn't true? You're arguing his lists are worse and your evidence are lists that haven't even played out. What his models are effective at are stripping away biases that are placed on players. That's all they are, nobody argued otherwise. Just like a common scout's list, things should be taken in conjunction with other data to paint a full picture.