By the end of the season, where will Matthews rank in all-time era-adjusted goals in a single season?

[saffronleaf]

lol who went with seventh. how dare they

 

[zeke]

Different game states have different scoring levels, and should be adjusted separately.

Note that the better adjustments that Dekes is talking about I.e. adjust for PP and EV separately would only help Auston more.

In other words, Auston is actually being underrated by these H-Ref adjustments.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do you have a better one that's publicly available and somewhat recognized or reputed or referenced in discussions?
Or is the whole enterprise a fool's errand?

I mean, I don't have a hockey website, but there are better adjustments people can do on their own with publicly available information.

Going far back in history might be difficult because of the lack of time information, which is probably why Hockey Reference does it this way, but that doesn't change that the way they do their adjustments is problematic and not a very good representation of the scoring environment the players usually being adjusted actually experienced.

 

[authentic]

I just don't buy these lists, there's some broad assumptions made. Gretz outscored Bossy in second place 92 to 64. Bossy is an all time purer scorer, in his peak as well, and lost by 30%. His ridiculous numbers just beg for historical context to attempt to explain it, and people wind up trying too hard at it. Auston finishing at 65 goals outpacing the rest of the league by 30% leaves second place at 45 goals.

Obviously not trying to take anything away. #34 is having an all-time scoring season that deserves discussion on this list. It's sick.

You're not buying it but can't even get your stats straight. Matthews has a bigger goals per game lead over 2nd place right now than Ovechkin had in his 65 goal season. 2nd place that season was 52 (in 79 games), not 45. Beyond that, Gretzky played way more ice time back then than the top players today, upwards of 25 minutes. You don't think a guy who has more goals in his last 50 games than everyone else this entire season is in the conversation and that these adjustments overrate him?

 

[authentic]

Hockey Reference's era adjustments are pretty bad, and don't accurately adjust for the scoring environment these goal totals were actually put up in.

They include shootout goals which don't count for the players stats so they underrate cap era players. They also overrate players in seasons with more powerplay time since a higher percentage of overall goals per game was dominated by 1st line players or the dead puck era where checking lines scored very little.

It would be nice to see how much powerplay time Hull, Lemieux and Gretzky had in comparison with the rest of the best goal scorers back then.

 

[Mr_Fun]

His 58 goals so far this season is really impressive, being that it's definitely harder to score now. That said, I'm not really buying what this "era adjustment" is attempting to sell.

 

[authentic]

His 58 goals so far this season is really impressive, being that it's definitely harder to score now. That said, I'm not really buying what this "era adjustment" is attempting to sell.

I don't know, Brett Hull is #1 when he had 86 goals in 78 and the next closest was 51. Doesn't mean they're infallible but they're much better comparisons than unadjusted stats.

 

[Squiffy]

You're not buying it but can't even get your stats straight. Matthews has a bigger goals per game lead over 2nd place right now than Ovechkin had in his 65 goal season. 2nd place that season was 52 (in 79 games), not 45. Beyond that, Gretzky played way more ice time back then than the top players today, upwards of 25 minutes. You don't think a guy who has more goals in his last 50 games than everyone else this entire season is in the conversation and that these adjustments overrate him?

No, I’m not saying that at all. Again it’s an interesting take on it, attempts to provide some context, makes for a good thread for the Leaf board right now. As long as we appreciate that this isn’t some formula that’s “right” in the sense that 2+2=4. It’s an arbitrary assignment of parameters that is someone’s best take at adjusting eras, no more no less.

Not sure if you missed this part of my post:

Obviously not trying to take anything away. #34 is having an all-time scoring season that deserves discussion on this list. It's sick

I explicitly stated that it belongs in the conversation.

Beyond that I am confused by the reference to OV? I said that Auston finishing at 65 goals (just a guess for discussion) would mean that to outscore the second place finisher by 30% would mean that the 2nd place finisher had 45 goals. 46 for rounding?

My post is more speaking to my general dislike of attempts at adjusted scoring charts, in my opinion they are fatally flawed exercises in that no mathematical equation can possibly account for the infinite variables that exist between era's. It's a worthy exercise in that Auston hitting 65 in 2022 is probably, almost certainly, harder then Auston hitting 65 in 1982, but there's just no way to adequately quantify it.

I'll say it again to avoid any confusion. Auston is having an all time scoring season that deserves discussion amongst other all time scoring seasons. My contention is that the results of that discussion are subjective, not definitive, for all involved.

 

[zeke]

Matthews finishing up near the top of this stat despite both missing 5gms and having nowhere near the PP time of the anyone else on the list is getting incredible. Like best scorer of all time incredible.

 

[Squiffy]

Matthews finishing up near the top of this stat despite both missing 5gms and having nowhere near the PP time of the anyone else on the list is setting incredible. Like best scorer of all time incredible.

That's a fair take, exactly the point. Who's to disagree with that? Maybe, ya. I can't say that's wrong. At a bare minimum Auston is having one of the greatest goal scoring seasons ever. Anyone saying it's not at least, what, top ten? ...is lying to themselves.

I think he'll pump in another 10 give or take, I don't see why he'd fall off a goal a game right now, it's complete domination the likes of which I, and I doubt really anyone else, has had the privilege of watching every single game, if only because none of us saw 80 games of Hull or Gretz or Mario 30-40 years ago. It's ridiculous. It's must watch TV. 10 more for the purposes of this list probably puts him at #1? So for the purpose of this thread, I'd vote #1.

 

[Leafblooded]

I'd be interested to know the percentage of total goals scored during the season the Scoring leader received each year.

Then rank them that way and see how that compares to this adjusted.

That wouldn't require you make up some number as it would be a simple % of actual.

Examples:

1990-1991 Hull
Goals: 5805
Rocket: 86
% 1.4814

1981-1982 Gretzky
Goals: 6741
Rocket: 92
% 1.3647

2007-2008 Ovechkin
Goals: 6847
Rocket: 65
% .9494

2021-2022 Matthews as at 2022-04-10
Goals: 7225
Rocket: 58
% .8027

2015-2016 Ovechkin
Goals: 6672
Rocket: 50
% .7494

2019-2020 Ovechkin
Goals: 6534
Rocket: 48
% .7346

need to incorporate number of teams league wide or number of players