By the end of the season, where will Matthews rank in all-time era-adjusted goals in a single season?
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nuck
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- Aug 18, 2005
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I'll say tied for 4th if he plays every game. Interesting to compare over the eras and how season by season gpg gives a nice reference point. I didn't think Hull would be that far in front. I know Mario missed a couple of games in 88-89 at year and actually missed 20 games in his best gpg season 92-93 but neither would catch him up to Hull at #1.
So Ovy and AM both snag two OT goals which the old guys didn't have a crack at but Hull played with arguably the 3rd best playmaker in history in peak Oates. Best case AM plays a game less than Hull and five less than Ovechkin but can still get himself to #2 with a hot finish. There are other considerations that make this kind of a list pretty speculative but he is clearly in that elite group. Thanks for putting this up.
So Ovy and AM both snag two OT goals which the old guys didn't have a crack at but Hull played with arguably the 3rd best playmaker in history in peak Oates. Best case AM plays a game less than Hull and five less than Ovechkin but can still get himself to #2 with a hot finish. There are other considerations that make this kind of a list pretty speculative but he is clearly in that elite group. Thanks for putting this up.
ACC1224
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- Aug 19, 2002
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Oh wow, he will likely be in 2nd by seasons end.
Hull's season checks out considering he had 86 goals (in 78 games) when the next highest goal scorer had 51.
Hull's season checks out considering he had 86 goals (in 78 games) when the next highest goal scorer had 51.
Gary Nylund
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- Oct 10, 2013
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These adjustments are revealing aren't they. Amazing that Gretzky's 92 goal season doesn't even crack the top 5.
Cool post, ty for this. I had no idea that Hull is so far ahead of everyone else. And no Bossy or Kurri on that list is also interesting!
Cool post, ty for this. I had no idea that Hull is so far ahead of everyone else. And no Bossy or Kurri on that list is also interesting!
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zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
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Yeah looks like 2nd.
Unless he scores 12 in the last 20 and takes top spot of course.
Unless he scores 12 in the last 20 and takes top spot of course.
zeke
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- Mar 14, 2005
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Keep this thread updated the rest of the way please and thank you.
Petrus
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#10 -Dit Clapper is gotta be the best hockey name ever!
saffronleaf
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not 100% sure, you can probably find out by going to the website.
but I think era-adjustments are done to adjust for the season-by-season variance in goal scoring. So for example Gretzky's 80s goal totals are typically adjusted downward given the higher goal scoring in those seasons, while DPE players' goal totals get a bump upward given the very low goal scoring in those seasons.
I think this adjustment is made by comparing the individual player's goal total to the goals scored per game in that season, and then figuring out what that would work out to when compared against a reference season.
Don't take my word for it I'm a wordcel.
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Shooter2x
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- Nov 3, 2021
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I just don't buy these lists, there's some broad assumptions made. Gretz outscored Bossy in second place 92 to 64. Bossy is an all time purer scorer, in his peak as well, and lost by 30%. His ridiculous numbers just beg for historical context to attempt to explain it, and people wind up trying too hard at it. Auston finishing at 65 goals outpacing the rest of the league by 30% leaves second place at 45 goals.
Obviously not trying to take anything away. #34 is having an all-time scoring season that deserves discussion on this list. It's sick.
Obviously not trying to take anything away. #34 is having an all-time scoring season that deserves discussion on this list. It's sick.
Hockey Reference's era adjustments are pretty bad, and don't accurately adjust for the scoring environment these goal totals were actually put up in.
Bluelines
Python FTW!
- Nov 17, 2013
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How do they adjust for all the clutching and grabbing in the 80's vs the free flowing game today? I played in the 80's and there was much less ice to "wheel" back then than there is today.
slozo
Registered User
That's a pretty good breakdown, but just to put Hull's year in even greater perspective (after you mentioned Metthews' 2 OTs which I didn't even think of) . . . please remember, Brett Hull refused to score empty net goals, and that was exactly the case in his best goal scoring years - even when he had the chance. Makes one wonder if he did, how close to 99's record he would have gotten.
tmlms13
Registered User
This isn't counting as 82 games though. Last year was actually more impressive because of how much scoring has gone up this season. Like the Leafs are scoring .5 more goals per game. We didn't add 0.5 goals worth of players this year
In 2020-21 - Matthews had 0.79 goals per game, and 63 adjusted in 52 games (41 real)
In 2021-22 - Mathews has 0.87 goals per game, and 65 adjusted in 67 games (58 real)
So he has only 2 more goals in more 15 games. What year is actually more impressive?
Just for some reference league wide
2020-2021 - Avalanche lead NHL with 3.52 goals per game
2021-2022 - Wild are 5th in the NHL with 3.62 goals per game
Another interesting stat. Last year McDavid had 158 points era adjusted. NOT using an over 82 game formula. That has to be getting close to 200 with 82+Era
In 2020-21 - Matthews had 0.79 goals per game, and 63 adjusted in 52 games (41 real)
In 2021-22 - Mathews has 0.87 goals per game, and 65 adjusted in 67 games (58 real)
So he has only 2 more goals in more 15 games. What year is actually more impressive?
Just for some reference league wide
2020-2021 - Avalanche lead NHL with 3.52 goals per game
2021-2022 - Wild are 5th in the NHL with 3.62 goals per game
Another interesting stat. Last year McDavid had 158 points era adjusted. NOT using an over 82 game formula. That has to be getting close to 200 with 82+Era
Mickey Marner
Registered User
Mickey Marner
Registered User
They don't provide an adjusted GP number, but the adjusted stats are pro-rated to an 82 GP season, at 6 GPG, with 20-man rosters and 1.67 assists per goal. The further you get from those numbers, the wonkier they get, which kinda' defeats their purpose. Fun to look at though.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
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While adjusted to an 82gm season, they don't adjust every player to 82gms - if a player misses games then they only get credited for the percentage of games they played.
ULF_55
Moderator
I'd be interested to know the percentage of total goals scored during the season the Scoring leader received each year.
Then rank them that way and see how that compares to this adjusted.
That wouldn't require you make up some number as it would be a simple % of actual.
Examples:
1990-1991 Hull
Goals: 5805
Rocket: 86
% 1.4814
1981-1982 Gretzky
Goals: 6741
Rocket: 92
% 1.3647
2007-2008 Ovechkin
Goals: 6847
Rocket: 65
% .9494
2021-2022 Matthews as at 2022-04-10
Goals: 7225
Rocket: 58
% .8027
2015-2016 Ovechkin
Goals: 6672
Rocket: 50
% .7494
2019-2020 Ovechkin
Goals: 6534
Rocket: 48
% .7346
Then rank them that way and see how that compares to this adjusted.
That wouldn't require you make up some number as it would be a simple % of actual.
Examples:
1990-1991 Hull
Goals: 5805
Rocket: 86
% 1.4814
1981-1982 Gretzky
Goals: 6741
Rocket: 92
% 1.3647
2007-2008 Ovechkin
Goals: 6847
Rocket: 65
% .9494
2021-2022 Matthews as at 2022-04-10
Goals: 7225
Rocket: 58
% .8027
2015-2016 Ovechkin
Goals: 6672
Rocket: 50
% .7494
2019-2020 Ovechkin
Goals: 6534
Rocket: 48
% .7346
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What specifically should they adjust for in regards to "scoring enviornment"?
Exactly, it's a fools game trying to mathematically quantify different eras, there's simply too many variables. Usually this discussion winds up circling back to the idea that the only real way to attempt it is to compare the numbers to peers of the same era to attempt to measure the level of dominance over players playing within the same set of parameters.
It's an interesting way to look at things and it can provide a level of context but it can't be taken as some mathematical fact like f=ma.
ULF_55
Moderator
saffronleaf
Registered User
Do you have a better one that's publicly available and somewhat recognized or reputed or referenced in discussions?
Or is the whole enterprise a fool's errand?
