Value of: BUF Trades with CHI, MIN, WPG

[RefsIdeas]

NOTE: I'm not saying that any one of these trades in particular should happen. I'm just trying to get a sense of how other fanbases value these players in a trade. I'm also not saying that all of these trades should happen (i.e I don't think the Sabres should acquire Dumba AND Murphy).

BUF Receives:

Connor Murphy

CHI Receives:

FLA 1st round pick (28th overall)

Reasoning: Chicago may be last in the entire league if you rank each franchise's future potential. They need to rebuild and acquire picks. I'm not sure how his late season concussion will impact his value in trades. I've seen Blackhawks fans mention they'd accept anything from a 2nd round pick, to that he's untouchable and part of the future core, to that he would require a 1st + 2nd round pick. Seems like this is a middle ground. Buffalo needs a veteran RHD to pair with Owen Power, and IMO Connor Murphy is an ideal person to pair him with.

BUF Receives:

Matt Dumba
Cam Talbot

MIN Receives:

BUF 2022 2nd round pick
PHI 2023 2nd round pick

Reasoning: Minny needs to clear cap, Buffalo needs to acquire cap. I've seen Wild fans saying that they'd be happy to unload Dumba for a 2nd, but in reality I think he's probably worth more than that (yes, I know he's a UFA at the end of the year). I believe that Bill Guerin probably doesn't have much of an apetite to move him - but he may not have a choice. Talbot is mostly a cap-dump, I don't think he's worth a 2nd round pick and probably has close to negative value due to his salary cap number. Buffalo needs two goalies and he would be a more than adequate 1B type of guy for a year. Like with Murphy, I could see Dumba being a great partner for Owen Power, and one I think the Sabres would have interest in extending if Dumba agreed.

BUF Receives:

Pierre-Luc Dubois
Dylan DeMelo

WPG Receives:

BUF 2022 1st round pick (9OA)
Isak Rosen
Casey Mittelstadt
Henri Jokiharju

Reasoning: I've seen WPG fans go back and forth on PLD in regards to if they believe they'll actually shop him in the offseason. I also can see plenty of Sabres fans yelling at me that this is an overpayment, and WPG fans saying that they don't want "spare parts" and such, which is why it may be a good proposal. In reality, I doubt this trade gets done (I don't see the Sabres owners acquiring a player like PLD after their Eichel experience) but I do think he fits well with the Sabres. Him and Cozens played very well together at the WJC, and despite Tage Thompson's emergance this year, I still have doubts that he's a true 1C (probably a 2C on a playoff team). From the Jets perspective - they're sort of in no mans land. They're not good enough to compete, but they're not bad enough to tank or be at the bottom of the draft order. Acquiring 9OA while having 14OA this year, in addition to acquiring Rosen (13th player selected last year, struggled with injuries + lack of ice time this year) Mittelstadt (former 7th OA, struggled with injuries but was one of the Sabres best player the last 10 games or so) and Jokiharju (23 vs DeMelo's 29) provides them with a great boost to begin a re-tool. Along with a Wheeler/Scheifele trade, they'll acquire a ton of young prospects and talent to build around. I considered putting Krebs in the trade proposal instead of Mittelstadt, but I think that'll be a non-starter for the Sabres (and most of their fans on HFBoards) but in reality I could see him being included if there was a contract extension agreed to prior to the trade.

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[Dr Jan Itor]

Talbot doesn’t have negative value but also not a ton of it either. Balances out the Dumba part I guess. I’d do the Minnesota one.

 

[Zach716]

Just to comment on the PLD trade, holy overpayment. That’s Eichel return territory. He’s looked real nice with Cozens in the WC but way too rich for my blood if that’s the ask. There’s also something to note that a player of his caliber being that young getting bounced around the league so much.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Just to comment on the PLD trade, holy overpayment. That’s Eichel return territory. He’s looked real nice with Cozens in the WC but way too rich for my blood if that’s the ask. There’s also something to note that a player of his caliber being that young getting bounced around the league so much.

Yeah, I got the feeling that a lot of Sabres fans will say this is an overpayment. It's a tough trade to value. PLD hasn't exactly established himself as a top NHL center but he has flashed the potential. The CBJ exit can't be discounted though. Rosen, Mittelstadt and Jokiharju are all question marks. I could see a case where Rosen never plays more than a handful of NHL games, Mittelstadt doesn't take the leap and Jokiharju isn't anything more than a 3rd pairing RHD - in which case you're essentially trading 9OA for PLD - which is a win. If Mittelstadt reaches 80% of his draft potential and Rosen becomes a contributing top 6 forward - it's a clear Sabres loss. It's a gamble and not even one I'm necessarily sure I'd want the Sabres to take - but I really only made this post to try and get a sense of trade value like I said at the start.

 

[fmrdh]

PLD is not for sale

 

[Kaen]

As a Jets fan, no thank you. Dubois is far more valuable to the Jets than any of those pieces.

Also what Jets fans are going back and forth on whether they'll keep him? Every Jets fan I've seen immediately shuts down any PLD proposal.

 

[jamiebez]

As a Jets fan, no thank you. Dubois is far more valuable to the Jets than any of those pieces.

Also what Jets fans are going back and forth on whether they'll keep him? Every Jets fan I've seen immediately shuts down any PLD proposal.

Agree with all this. PLD is a keeper.

Plus, the prevailing wisdom is that the Jets are not rebuilding anytime in the next 2 seasons (that's when Hellebuyck and Wheeler are up).

Could we interest you in a Mark Scheifele though?

 

[Snowman]

The Jets aren't moving Dubois and if they were there would be zero chance they consider this.

It's clear Sabres fans are anxious to dump Mittlestadt, but they have to understand that the same reasons they want to dump him are the same reasons no one wants him and that he has very minimal value if any at all.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

PLD is not for sale unless a 1c is coming back imo.

Also Demelo alone would command a lot of value on the market, I don't think he's a throw in like he's made out to be here.

 

[Zman5778]

Buffalo fan here. Would most certainly do the Minnesota deal. Would do the Chicago deal, a little more grudgingly. Don't do the Jets deal. At all. Yes, PLD looked great with Cozens. But I'm not giving up a long-term RHD AND 3 very good assets for him.

 

[Zman5778]

It's clear Sabres fans are anxious to dump Mittlestadt, but they have to understand that the same reasons they want to dump him are the same reasons no one wants him and that he has very minimal value if any at all.

It's only a small subset of Sabres fans that want to "dump" Mitts.

Most rational Sabres fans know that dealing him now would be dealing him at his lowest value......and on top of it, he's looked VERY good when healthy this year.

 

[fmrdh]

Buffalo fan here. Would most certainly do the Minnesota deal. Would do the Chicago deal, a little more grudgingly. Don't do the Jets deal. At all. Yes, PLD looked great with Cozens. But I'm not giving up a long-term RHD AND 3 very good assets for him.

You are speaking as if DeMelo is just a throw in here when he definitely is not. DeMelo is a solid top 4 D who has shown the ability to improve the play of his D partner.

 

[Zman5778]

You are speaking as if DeMelo is just a throw in here when he definitely is not. DeMelo is a solid top 4 D who has shown the ability to improve the play of his D partner.

Wasn't my intention to ignore DeMelo. I know how good he is. He'd be fantastic with Power.

 

[TS Quint]

This is his lowest value? Isn’t this Middlstadt’s highest value since being drafted?

Like Jet fans are saying, there’s next to zero interest in trading PLD, there’s barely interest in even talking about it.

 

[Blitz]

It's only a small subset of Sabres fans that want to "dump" Mitts.

Most rational Sabres fans know that dealing him now would be dealing him at his lowest value......and on top of it, he's looked VERY good when healthy this year.

100%

I'm actually scared if they deal him it's gonna bite us ala Brandon Hagel. He definitely struggled with conditioning & consistency in his age 18-20yo seasons, but seems to have figured that out. With the emergence of Thompson as a #1C, plus Cozens & Krebs in the fold behind him, Casey is also kinda redundant - not quite a#1C, and not really a checking centre... Which is where most of these rumours come from I'm sure.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Yes from this hawks fan

 

[TS Quint]

100%

I'm actually scared if they deal him it's gonna bite us ala Brandon Hagel. He definitely struggled with conditioning & consistency in his age 18-20yo seasons, but seems to have figured that out. With the emergence of Thompson as a #1C, plus Cozens & Krebs in the fold behind him, Casey is also kinda redundant - not quite a#1C, and not really a checking centre... Which is where most of these rumours come from I'm sure.

“Not quite a 1C”? That’s generous.

 

[TheFridge]

Yep, I'd do that deal Buffalo.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Jets are out we don’t need your injury prone pieces for pld.

 

[Sebastien]

This doesn't get you dumba, not even close. Also doubt Talbot is getting traded unless Fleury resigns. But dumba is loved by Minnesota's GM Guerin and he basically said dumba isn't available. Dumba himself mentioned buying a home in eagan, Minnesota and moving in with his fiance, so this is setting up for dumba signing an extension

 

[RefsIdeas]

PLD is not for sale unless a 1c is coming back imo.

Also Demelo alone would command a lot of value on the market, I don't think he's a throw in like he's made out to be here.

I don’t really know how you can say that when PLD is an average 1C himself? I would think that there’s comfortably 13 better and probably another 3 you can make arguments for. If you go back through every single time a center like him was traded, this is about the return it is. Especially considering he’s an RFA and there may be a discrepancy between what he wants and what the Jets are willing to offer.

 

[Djp]

NOTE: I'm not saying that any one of these trades in particular should happen. I'm just trying to get a sense of how other fanbases value these players in a trade. I'm also not saying that all of these trades should happen (i.e I don't think the Sabres should acquire Dumba AND Murphy).

BUF Receives:

Connor Murphy

CHI Receives:

FLA 1st round pick (28th overall)

Connor Murphy is a RHD version 0of Josh Georges---do not want in any way shape or form.

He doesnt fit their core being too old

BUF Receives:

Matt Dumba
Cam Talbot

MIN Receives:

BUF 2022 2nd round pick
PHI 2023 2nd round pick

Reasoning: Minny needs to clear cap, Buffalo needs to acquire cap. I've seen Wild fans saying that they'd be happy to unload Dumba for a 2nd, but in reality I think he's probably worth more than that (yes, I know he's a UFA at the end of the year). I believe that Bill Guerin probably doesn't have much of an apetite to move him - but he may not have a choice. Talbot is mostly a cap-dump, I don't think he's worth a 2nd round pick and probably has close to negative value due to his salary cap number. Buffalo needs two goalies and he would be a more than adequate 1B type of guy for a year. Like with Murphy, I could see Dumba being a great partner for Owen Power, and one I think the Sabres would have interest in extending if Dumba agreed.

Dumba doesnt fit with Owen Power. He's a 1 yr rental. he will want to much that Buffalo can afford with Dahlin and Power getting raised contracts in 2024

BUF Receives:

Pierre-Luc Dubois
Dylan DeMelo

WPG Receives:

BUF 2022 1st round pick (9OA)
Isak Rosen
Casey Mittelstadt
Henri Jokiharju

PLD is not a #1C. This is more than what Buffalo got for Eichel.

DeMelo also is too old.

This well above what Buffalo gave up for ROR.

acquiring PLD means Buffalo pushed Cozens to wing. They arent giving up Mitts in this deal

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don’t really know how you can say that when PLD is an average 1C himself? I would think that there’s comfortably 13 better and probably another 3 you can make arguments for. If you go back through every single time a center like him was traded, this is about the return it is. Especially considering he’s an RFA and there may be a discrepancy between what he wants and what the Jets are willing to offer.

So then the jets don’t need to trade him. There may be that discrepancy. You can say that about any player and guess what vast majority sign.

 

[RefsIdeas]

“Not quite a 1C”? That’s generous.

I was almost worried about putting Mittelstadt in here because I’ve seen more than one thread devolve into a Mittelstadt argument. I wouldn’t say Sabres fans are eager to dump him at all. We have a lot of 2C - 3C potential guys but nobody that’s screaming 1C (Thompson, Krebs, Cozens, Mittelstadt). So if we can use one plus assets to get a 1C - it makes sense.

He was highly touted his draft year. Had an incredible WJC. Rushed to the NHL. His first year was bad. Hurt in 19-20. 20-21 was very good when Granato was named HC. 21-22 all reports out of training camp said he was ready to take over at 1C, was the best player on the team, and he got hurt his first game. Came back, got hurt again. Towards the end of the season he came on strong and Kyle Okposo said he was probably their best player if you watched closely.

He’s a gamble for any team. Is he always going to be hurt? Can he sustain his strong play in spurts over the course of a year? Is he not playing with the right forwards? He was always going to have a longer development path because he was so weak his draft year. I think we started to see his strength come along this year, and there’s certainly reason to believe that he can become the type of player that warranted the 7th overall pick. Or he could fizzle out. Buffalo fans will probably say it’s 50/50, other fans will say it’s more 80/20 he never pans out, thus the discrepancy in perceived trade value.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Connor Murphy is a RHD version 0of Josh Georges---do not want in any way shape or form.

He doesnt fit their core being too old



Dumba doesnt fit with Owen Power. He's a 1 yr rental. he will want to much that Buffalo can afford with Dahlin and Power getting raised contracts in 2024




PLD is not a #1C. This is more than what Buffalo got for Eichel.

DeMelo also is too old.

This well above what Buffalo gave up for ROR.

acquiring PLD means Buffalo pushed Cozens to wing. They arent giving up Mitts in this deal

Disagree prefer Tuch to any of those pieces.