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Best Single Season Goal Scorer in Leafs History: The Key Milestones

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WordsOfWisdom

WordsOfWisdom

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Nov 25, 2021
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To be the best single season goal scorer in Leafs history, these are the milestones to beat:
(In my opinion, Matthews was right there last season.)

Rick Vaive's total of 54 goals was obtained by playing 77 out of an available 80 games in the 1981-82 season. That means if we adjust Vaive's accomplishment to a standardized 82-game season, then he has 54 / 77 x [82 x (77/80)] = 55.35 ~= 55 goals

Vaive holds the biggest overall goal total (which means nothing) because Frank Mahovlich's season from 1960-61 is slightly more impressive: 48 goals in 70 games out of an available 70 games. That means Mahovlich's season translates to 48 / 70 x [82 x (70/70)] ~= 56.23 ~= 56 goals

Charlie Conacher has them both beat however. His season in 1934-35 was: 36 goals in 47 games out of an available 48 games. That translates to 36 / 47 x [82 x (47/48)] ~= 61.5 ~= 62 goals

Two seasons ago, Auston Matthews' total of 47 goals was obtained in 70 out of an available 70 games in the 2019-2020 season. That translates to 47 / 70 x [82 x (70/70)] ~= 55.06 ~= 55 goals... a tie with Vaive but not quite the big M.

Last season, Matthews reached an astonishing total of 41 goals by playing in 52 out of an available 56 games. That translates to 41 / 52 x [82 x (52/56)] ~= 60 goals.

That means that Matthews season last season was better than Vaive's best season, better than Mahovlich's best season, and just short of Charlie Conacher for best season ever.

mkm.jpg
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WordsOfWisdom said:
To be the best single season goal scorer in Leafs history, these are the milestones to beat:
(In my opinion, Matthews was right there last season.)

Rick Vaive's total of 54 goals was obtained by playing 77 out of an available 80 games in the 1981-82 season. That means if we adjust Vaive's accomplishment to a standardized 82-game season, then he has 54 / 77 x [82 x (77/80)] = 55.35 ~= 55 goals

Vaive holds the biggest overall goal total (which means nothing) because Frank Mahovlich's season from 1960-61 is slightly more impressive: 48 goals in 70 games out of an available 70 games. That means Mahovlich's season translates to 48 / 70 x [82 x (70/70)] ~= 56.23 ~= 56 goals

Charlie Conacher has them both beat however. His season in 1934-35 was: 36 goals in 47 games out of an available 48 games. That translates to 36 / 47 x [82 x (47/48)] ~= 61.5 ~= 62 goals

Two seasons ago, Auston Matthews' total of 47 goals was obtained in 70 out of an available 70 games in the 2019-2020 season. That translates to 47 / 70 x [82 x (70/70)] ~= 55.06 ~= 55 goals... a tie with Vaive but not quite the big M.

Last season, Matthews reached an astonishing total of 41 goals by playing in 52 out of an available 56 games. That translates to 41 / 52 x [82 x (52/56)] ~= 60 goals.

That means that Matthews season last season was better than Vaive's best season, better than Mahovlich's best season, and just short of Charlie Conacher for best season ever.
Click to expand...
Look at that steel stare
When leafs were Leafs
We used to be a tough ornery franchise under Mr Smythe
Do not mess with Mr Conacher

beauty eh

upload_2021-11-27_6-58-23.jpeg
 
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I should emphasize that players were not compensated for time spent injured.

Each season total was projected up to an 82-game season, but the player only gets credit for the percentage of the games in which he was healthy. (Hopefully that makes sense.)
 
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WordsOfWisdom said:
To be the best single season goal scorer in Leafs history, these are the milestones to beat:
(In my opinion, Matthews was right there last season.)

Rick Vaive's total of 54 goals was obtained by playing 77 out of an available 80 games in the 1981-82 season. That means if we adjust Vaive's accomplishment to a standardized 82-game season, then he has 54 / 77 x [82 x (77/80)] = 55.35 ~= 55 goals

Vaive holds the biggest overall goal total (which means nothing) because Frank Mahovlich's season from 1960-61 is slightly more impressive: 48 goals in 70 games out of an available 70 games. That means Mahovlich's season translates to 48 / 70 x [82 x (70/70)] ~= 56.23 ~= 56 goals

Charlie Conacher has them both beat however. His season in 1934-35 was: 36 goals in 47 games out of an available 48 games. That translates to 36 / 47 x [82 x (47/48)] ~= 61.5 ~= 62 goals

Two seasons ago, Auston Matthews' total of 47 goals was obtained in 70 out of an available 70 games in the 2019-2020 season. That translates to 47 / 70 x [82 x (70/70)] ~= 55.06 ~= 55 goals... a tie with Vaive but not quite the big M.

Last season, Matthews reached an astonishing total of 41 goals by playing in 52 out of an available 56 games. That translates to 41 / 52 x [82 x (52/56)] ~= 60 goals.

That means that Matthews season last season was better than Vaive's best season, better than Mahovlich's best season, and just short of Charlie Conacher for best season ever.

View attachment 484588
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Maybe I'm wrong (I became a Leaf fan at the age of 8 in 1976) but I don't think it's a fair to say one was better than the other, they were in different era's, Conacher had goalies that had no masks and very little equipment but again, maybe he also had disadvantages like much inferior skates (and ice) compared to the others. Vaive of course was the first Leaf to hit 50 (3 times) hence my profile name. I know Leeman had a great fluke year when he did it but let's not forget Dave Andreychuck in this conversation (our last 50 goal man twice, almost 30 years ago).
 
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Vaive50 said:
Maybe I'm wrong (I became a Leaf fan at the age of 8 in 1976) but I don't think it's a fair to say one was better than the other, they were in different era's, Conacher had goalies that had no masks and very little equipment but again, maybe he also had disadvantages like much inferior skates (and ice) compared to the others. Vaive of course was the first Leaf to hit 50 (3 times) hence my profile name. I know Leeman had a great fluke year when he did it but let's not forget Dave Andreychuck in this conversation (our last 50 goal man twice, almost 30 years ago).
Click to expand...

Of course, I'm not taking into consideration the different scoring eras these players played through. As always, take the numbers with a grain of salt. :)
 
I probably didn't explain this well enough before but the point of this thread is to show where Auston Matthews ranks among the best Leafs goal scoring seasons ever, and to list those best seasons in terms of an 82-game schedule, so we have a fair comparison.

Matthews now has 13 goals in 21 games this season. He's on pace for ~51 goals, which would be the 3rd time he's posted a season that projected to 50+ goals over 82 games.

To have the greatest goal scoring season in Leafs history however, these are the marks he would have to beat:

The milestones to beat are:
  • 62 goals (to beat Charlie Conacher)
  • 56 goals (to beat Frank Mahovlich)
  • 55 goals (to beat Rick Vaive)
(All of the above milestones assume that Conacher, Mahovlich, and Vaive got to play an 82-game schedule just like Matthews. We all know they didn't, but the numbers above reflect what they would have posted if they did. Also note that none of the players are ever compensated for time spent injured. The numbers above are not "wishful thinking", they're a true and statistically accurate reflection of what they would have produced.)

If you ask me, Rick Vaive's total is poised to fall this season. Mahovlich's total could fall this season as well. I'm not sure if anyone will ever beat Conacher however.
 
Mathews, already has the best goal scoring season of any Leaf in the past 75 plus years. The only Leaf since 1946 to lead the league in most goals scored for the year.

The other milestones were great but bottom line, did they lead the league that year, the answer ofcourse is, NO. Well accept for Conacher but we are really going back into ancient history with the way back machine.
 
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Confucius said:
Mathews, already has the best goal scoring season of any Leaf in the past 75 plus years. The only Leaf since 1946 to lead the league in most goals scored for the year.

The other milestones were great but bottom line, did they lead the league that year, the answer ofcourse is, NO. Well accept for Conacher but we are really going back into ancient history with the way back machine.
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Agreed. I think Matthews' season last season was the 2nd best goal scoring season ever by a Maple Leafs player.

If we can ever see Matthews play a full 82 games, I think he'll pass Vaive's single season goal record. I think it's incredible that no Leafs player has ever even challenged Vaive's record since it was made. Maybe Dave Andreychuk back in the early 90's? That's a long time ago. Out of all the players that have passed through Toronto since then (Sundin, Mogilny, Kessel, etc...) they're not even in the ballpark when it comes to goal scoring.

Sundin's "steady as she goes" team totals should be completely destroyed by Matthews if he stays in Toronto and we keep seeing 82 game seasons from here on in.
 
WordsOfWisdom said:
Agreed. I think Matthews' season last season was the 2nd best goal scoring season ever by a Maple Leafs player.

If we can ever see Matthews play a full 82 games, I think he'll pass Vaive's single season goal record. I think it's incredible that no Leafs player has ever even challenged Vaive's record since it was made. Maybe Dave Andreychuk back in the early 90's? That's a long time ago. Out of all the players that have passed through Toronto since then (Sundin, Mogilny, Kessel, etc...) they're not even in the ballpark when it comes to goal scoring.

Sundin's "steady as she goes" team totals should be completely destroyed by Matthews if he stays in Toronto and we keep seeing 82 game seasons from here on in.
Click to expand...

Sundin is still so damned underrated. Imagine him instead of Tavares.
 
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Confucius said:
Mathews, already has the best goal scoring season of any Leaf in the past 75 plus years. The only Leaf since 1946 to lead the league in most goals scored for the year.

The other milestones were great but bottom line, did they lead the league that year, the answer ofcourse is, NO. Well accept for Conacher but we are really going back into ancient history with the way back machine.
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lol I agree with you but come on no need to exclude Conacher he's an important figure in the sports lore of the city
 
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You don't establish a record by using pace. The mark to beat is 54.
 
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TheProspector said:
Sundin is still so damned underrated. Imagine him instead of Tavares.
Click to expand...

Yep, his prime years were played in an era of clutching and grabbing...the opponents would mug and drape all over him and not get penalties...Sundin was like a big, strong horse and wouldn't go down...there was a time when you could mug, interfere with a player dumping and chasing the puck from the blueline in.
 
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egd27 said:
You don't establish a record by using pace. The mark to beat is 54.
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I agree. :)

I'm just trying to point out that there's a difference between having a record and being the best. They're not the same thing.

Rick Vaive has a record, but Auston Matthews is better than Rick Vaive, even if he never breaks Vaive's record. The record is "nice to have" but not relevant when it comes to determining who is the best.
 
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WordsOfWisdom said:
I agree. :)

I'm just trying to point out that there's a difference between having a record and being the best. They're not the same thing.

Rick Vaive has a record, but Auston Matthews is better than Rick Vaive, even if he never breaks Vaive's record. The record is "nice to have" but not relevant when it comes to determining who is the best.
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Charlie Conacher led the league in goalscoring 5 times. He’s the best goalscorer even though he doesn’t have the highest total.
 
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WordsOfWisdom said:
I agree. :)

I'm just trying to point out that there's a difference between having a record and being the best. They're not the same thing.

Rick Vaive has a record, but Auston Matthews is better than Rick Vaive, even if he never breaks Vaive's record. The record is "nice to have" but not relevant when it comes to determining who is the best.
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I understand what you are trying to establish, but with all of the variables across eras, IMO you can never really make an apples to apples to comparison, and pace almost never stays the same from one game to the next.

Due to this, again IMO, the player that has actually established the high water mark has the claim to being considered the "best"
 
Dreakmur said:
Charlie Conacher led the league in goalscoring 5 times. He’s the best goalscorer even though he doesn’t have the highest total.
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lol Conacher played when goalies didn't have masks, and Matthews has to beat guys in Voltron costumes.... Sorry, but the old guys were garbage. Junior B players today would wipe the floor clean with them.
 
Dreakmur said:
Charlie Conacher led the league in goalscoring 5 times. He’s the best goalscorer even though he doesn’t have the highest total.
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Agreed.


egd27 said:
I understand what you are trying to establish, but with all of the variables across eras, IMO you can never really make an apples to apples to comparison, and pace almost never stays the same from one game to the next.
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I'm just trying to keep it simple. :)

If you want more accuracy then we can measure exactly how much better each player was relative to his competition, where each player ranked within the league, and then compare that to the league average. That would eliminate the effect of different eras. All I did was took the goal totals and put them over 82 games... without compensation for time spent injured. So if a player missed 10 games due to injury, I didn't add 10 more games worth of goals to their total. I only added games to the projection if the NHL added games.

TheProspector said:
lol Conacher played when goalies didn't have masks, and Matthews has to beat guys in Voltron costumes.... Sorry, but the old guys were garbage. Junior B players today would wipe the floor clean with them.
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When it comes to different eras, you can only do the best with what you have. You are only ever measured against your peers. If you were the best in the world against your peers with 1930's food, training, ice quality, equipment, and genetics, then you would be the best in the world today with 2021 genes, food, conditioning, equipment, etc. It's all relative. Athletes today are bigger, stronger, and faster... because food is better, healthcare is better, and our genes have created bigger, faster, and stronger humans across the board.

So what you should be comparing is not Charlie Conacher born in the early 1900's but if Charlie Conacher were born NOW and grew up in THIS environment. Imagine a bigger Conacher who's twice as fast, with a shot twice as hard, using a composite stick, etc.. That's the accurate comparison. Always EVOLVE the players from the past that your bring forward into our time. Give them the same benefit of human evolution that we have.
 
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