a 1989 / 1990 bernie nicholls stat dump to try to understand the anomaly of his 150 season better
(without trying to account for the different scoring rates of the two seasons, which imo is effectively just statistical noise)
nicholls in 1989: 87 ES, 49 PP, 14 SH (79 games)
gretzky in 1989: 100 ES, 53 PP, 15 SH (78 games)
robitaille in 1989: 74 ES, 24 PP (78 games)
nicholls in 1990: 44 ES, 30 PP, 1 SH (47 games)
nicholls in 1990: 74 ES, 50 PP, 2 SH, 126 pts (prorated to 79 games)
gretzky in 1990: 96 ES, 40 PP, 6 SH (73 games)
robitaille in 1990: 67 ES, 33 PP, 1 SH (80 games)
gretzky pre-trade: 68 ES, 26 PP, 4 SH, 98 pts (47 games)
gretzky pre-trade: 113 ES, 43 PP, 7 SH, 163 pts (prorated to 78 games)
gretzky post-trade: 28 ES, 14 PP, 2 SH, 44 pts (26 games)
gretzky post-trade: 84 ES, 42 PP, 6 SH, 132 (prorated to 78 games)
sandstrom post-trade: 21 ES, 11 PP, 1 SH, 33 pts (28 games)
sandstrom post-trade: 60 ES, 31 PP, 3 SH, 94 pts (prorated to 80 games)
scoring race up to the trade (rank, player, games played, pts):
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]gretzky[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]mario[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]nicholls[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]messier[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]yzerman[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]hull[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]lafontaine[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]robitaille[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]savard[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]turgeon/francis[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
scoring race from the trade to end of season:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]yzerman[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]messier[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]coffey[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]cullen[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]hull[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]verbeek/sakic[/TD]
[TD]33/34[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]gretzky[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]turgeon[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]nicholls[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]robitaille[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
LA in 1989: 4th overall, 1st in goals, 5th most GA, 13th in PP goals, 11th in PP%, 3rd in SH goals
LA in 1989: 376 goals, 272 ES, 82 PP, 22 SH
LA in 1990: 15th overall, 2nd in goals, 4th most GA, 13th in PP goals, 8th in PP%, 8th in SH goals
LA in 1990: 338 goals, 251 ES, 76 PP, 11 SH
pre-trade: 11th overall, 2nd in goals, 356 per 80 pace
post-trade: 16th overall, 4th in goals, 313 per 80 pace
so observations: LA was a much better team in 1989 under robbie ftorek than it was in 1990 under tom webster. defensively, they seem equally bad, but the '89 team could outscore their problems; the 1990 team, while still excellent offensively, couldn't. that said, in the playoffs the results were the same: upset edmonton in '89 before getting whomped by the calgary cup team; upset calgary in '90 before getting whomped by the edmonton cup team.
the 1990 team was also significantly better offensively with nicholls than without, and also better overall before the trade.
the 1989 team was killer at ES. iirc, it was a three line attack: gretzky with random plugs (mike allison, half a year of bobby carpenter, guys like that), robitaille/nicholls/taylor, and tonelli/ron duguay until he was replaced by steve kasper/krushelnyski. gretzky was 3rd in pts, but only two pts behind mario for the lead; nicholls was 4th, robitaillle was 5th, tonelli was 20th, krusher was 28th, taylor was 40th.
the 1990 team had gretzky in 1st place in ES scoring, pre-trade nicholls on pace for 3rd, robitaille 8th, and no one else in the top 50. the next highest were tonelli at 60, and kasper and duchesne tied for 83rd. post-trade sandstrom was on pace for 18th. which is also to say that it wasn't necessarily a case of changing coaches, it might also have been the older guys who were still good in '89 being way less good in 1990 (taylor missed 1/4 of the year and finished outside of the top 100). this, i believe, was one of the reasons they traded nicholls for two younger, up and coming guys: scoring depth had fallen off.
as for nicholls himself, in 1989 the distance between him and gretzky was just ES scoring. at special teams, he was right there with gretz, but gretzky outscored him by thirteen pts at ES, which itself is a remarkable feat by nicholls being that gretzky put up 100 at ES.
the difference between 1989 and 1990 pre-trade nicholls, is entirely at ES and in SH scoring. nicholls and gretzky scored at an absolutely bonkers level on the PK in 1989. nicholls seems to have either stopped killing penalties at all, or just was taken off gretzky's PK pair. prorated, he lost thirteen pts in SH scoring, as well as thirteen at ES. weirdly, robitaille lost eight pts at ES (prorated), but gained it back and more on the PP in 1990. but robitaille's rank at ES didn't really change: he was 5th in 1989 and two pts out of 5th in 1990, which if you consider that he downgraded centers from nicholls to todd elik 2/3 into the season may not really be a drop at all. (in new york, nicholls' ES scoring fell way off, going from a 74 ES pt pace to scoring less than half an ES pt/game, with only his PP scoring keeping him in the overall scoring race.)
and the difference between 1989 and 1990 pre-trade gretzky is practically nothing, other than he lost some special teams scoring and gained it all back at ES. the difference between pre-and post-trade gretzky is entirely at ES, a 30 pts/80 drop in ES scoring rate. and this is gaining good linemates in sandstrom and granato, vs the scrubs he was playing with pre-trade.
which is all to say, it looks like nicholls was replaceable on the PP, but not at ES. he and gretzky had a symbiotic relationship at ES where they likely took defensive attention away from each other and split extra matchup minutes against poor competition. that said, gretzky post-trade is still 4th in ES scoring and averaging north of an ES pt/game. he wasn't scoring at gretzky ES rates, but he was scoring at a very high rate. nicholls post-trade fell off completely at ES. which brings me to my other hypothesis, that nicholls in that magical one and a half LA years benefited at ES from robitaille, but not the other way around. post-trade, robitaille is still chugging along at 7th in ES scoring, one single pt behind gretzky.