Bedard, Michkov, or Celebrini: Who would you build around?

[Sasso09]

Celebrini has been better than Bedard this year, not question.... through 14 games.

Celebrini has been nowhere near as good as Michkov this year.

Bedard's rookie year was better than both so far.

 

[TimeZone]

Celebrini has been better than Bedard this year, not question.... through 14 games.

Celebrini has been nowhere near as good as Michkov this year.

Bedard's rookie year was better than both so far.

Higher goals per game, higher points per game, better all around player.

Strange post, at absolute worst it's been very close, at best Celebrini has been notably better thus far.

That said, I doubt he can keep this pace, I think the calder comes down to Hutson vs Michkov.

 

[Sasso09]

Celebrini is already playing a 200 foot game and currently scoring at a higher rate than both Michkov and Bedard. He also has an equal amount of goals with more 5 vs 5 points than Michkov in 8 less games. I’m not sure by what metric you have Michkov as the better player.

Lies

Michkov P/60 2.85 on 3rd line
Celebrini P/60 2.78 on 1st line
Bedard P/60 2.27 on 1st line

Michkov has scored at the highest rate and with a larger sample size. Exhale that chest homie

 

[Sasso09]

Higher goals per game, higher points per game, better all around player.

Strange post, at absolute worst it's been very close, at best Celebrini has been notably better thus far.

That said, I doubt he can keep this pace, I think the calder comes down to Hutson vs Michkov.

But none of those things are true?

Michkov has better defensive stats

Michkov has a better p/60 on 3rd line

Michkov owned Celebrini head to head

Michkov has xGF 9.9 vs Celebrini xGF 5.4, meaning Michkov has had terrible puck luck vs Celebrini being very lucky.

Watching them both play, it's not close. If you want to read simple stats and not watch hockey that's on you

 

[Sasso09]

Bedard if he sticks as a center, Celebrini if he doesnt.

Bedard is a winger, and you still take him over Celebrini. Center over winger is a general rule when the talents are close but in this case it's like taking Bergeron over Kucherov or Kaprizov, you just don't do it.

 

[TimeZone]

But none of those things are true?

Michkov has better defensive stats

Michkov has a better p/60 on 3rd line

Michkov owned Celebrini head to head

Michkov has xGF 9.9 vs Celebrini xGF 5.4, meaning Michkov has had terrible puck luck vs Celebrini being very lucky.

Watching them both play, it's not close. If you want to read simple stats and not watch hockey that's on you

Except, they are.

Macklin Celebrini has 8 goals in 13 GP, a goals per game of 0.61.

Matvei Michkov has 9 goals in 23 GP, a goals per game of 0.39.

Celebrini has 13 points in 14 GP, good for a PPG of 0.92, Michkov 19 in 23, a PPG of 0.82

Bizzare response stating objective facts are "wrong", there was nothing subjective about the statistics I mentioned.

If you wish to value p/60 above actual goals scored, that's an interesting route to take, perhaps you should actually read the comments you respond to before jumping in next time.

Trying to convince people that the guy shooting 20% on the year is having "bad puck luck" is also quite an interesting take, particularly because a mere handful of NHLers managed this feat during the entire 2023-24 Season last year.

You are objectively wrong.

Higher goals per game, higher points per game, better all around player.

Strange post, at absolute worst it's been very close, at best Celebrini has been notably better thus far.

That said, I doubt he can keep this pace, I think the calder comes down to Hutson vs Michkov.

 

[JaegerDice]

Bedard is a winger, and you still take him over Celebrini. Center over winger is a general rule when the talents are close but in this case it's like taking Bergeron over Kucherov or Kaprizov, you just don't do it.

I don't agree with that.

Talent is an input, impact is an output.

I only care about the sustained impact, the output. A center has greater impact than a winger. At center, if Bedard reaches his ceiling, his overall impact will be greater than Celebrini at his ceiling. At wing, it will not.

 

[Sasso09]

I don't agree with that.

Talent is an input, impact is an output.

I only care about the sustained impact, the output. A center has greater impact than a winger. At center, if Bedard reaches his ceiling, his overall impact will be greater than Celebrini at his ceiling. At wing, it will not.

Bedard isn't and never was a winger, his play style is that of an elite winger. Using him at Center hurts his ability, he's just not a 200 foot player

 

[JaegerDice]

Bedard isn't and never was a winger, his play style is that of an elite winger. Using him at Center hurts his ability, he's just not a 200 foot player

Then he’ll never reach the overall on-ice impact of a Celebrini and the Blackhawks should be looking to fill their 1C position with great haste:

 

[Sasso09]

Except, they are.

Macklin Celebrini has 8 goals in 13 GP, a goals per game of 0.61.

Matvei Michkov has 9 goals in 23 GP, a goals per game of 0.39.

Celebrini has 13 points in 14 GP, good for a PPG of 0.92, Michkov 19 in 23, a PPG of 0.82

Bizzare response stating objective facts are "wrong", there was nothing subjective about the statistics I mentioned.

If you wish to value p/60 above actual goals scored, that's an interesting route to take, perhaps you should actually read the comments you respond to before jumping in next time.

Trying to convince people that the guy shooting 20% on the year is having "bad puck luck" is also quite an interesting take, particularly because a mere handful of NHLers managed this feat during the entire 2023-24 Season last year.

You are objectively wrong.

You wrote all of this just to be wrong again?

Context is very important.

Celebrini plays 20 minutes a night on the 1st line with Eklund (22 points) and Zetterlund (19 points) as his most common linemates, both of those guys have better play driving stats and suggest they boost Celebrini up


Michkov, who is scoring at a higher P/60 rate from the 3rd line getting 17:26 minutes plays with most common linemates of Frost (10 points) and Tippet (12 points), which michkov by far has the best play driving stats of the 3.


So.... Do you we go by your PPG rate or my P60 rate? i don't think we'll agree on either so lets just go by the REAL stats

Michkov has more goals
Michkov has double the assist
Michkov is a plus player on a minus 10 team
Michkov has more ESP
Michkov has more PPP
Michkov has better XGF stats
Michkov has better XGA stats

I mean, Celebrini has no REAL advantage on any REAL stats. And i'm sure you saw the game they played head to head?

Then he’ll never reach the overall on-ice impact of a Celebrini and the Blackhawks should be looking to fill their 1C position with great haste:

This makes absolutely no sense. Celebrini will never have the impact a Kucherov or Kaprizov have on the game.

Toews was never as impactful as Kane despite what some Hawks fans told themselves years ago. No one is taking Bergeron over Kucherov.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

No matter how you slice it's impressive a 7th overall pick is being compared to two 1st overalls in his rookie season...

 

[Sasso09]

Except, they are.

Macklin Celebrini has 8 goals in 13 GP, a goals per game of 0.61.

Matvei Michkov has 9 goals in 23 GP, a goals per game of 0.39.

Celebrini has 13 points in 14 GP, good for a PPG of 0.92, Michkov 19 in 23, a PPG of 0.82

Bizzare response stating objective facts are "wrong", there was nothing subjective about the statistics I mentioned.

If you wish to value p/60 above actual goals scored, that's an interesting route to take, perhaps you should actually read the comments you respond to before jumping in next time.

Trying to convince people that the guy shooting 20% on the year is having "bad puck luck" is also quite an interesting take, particularly because a mere handful of NHLers managed this feat during the entire 2023-24 Season last year.

You are objectively wrong.

Bizarre is that you don't know math

Celebrini has 8 goals in 14 games which is 0.57 not 0.61
Celebrini has 13 points in 14 games which is 0.93 not 0.92
Michkov has 19 in 23 which is 0.83 not 0.82

You aren't even correct on your own numbers and games played my guy. get your life together.

No matter how you slice it's impressive a 7th overall pick is being compared to two 1st overalls in his rookie season...

In all fairness, if he was drafted in any other draft outside of the 23' draft and didn't have a contract he's going 1st overall, including the 24' draft.

 

[Schennanigans]

I’m not sure, but I do know the flyers made out like bandits with that pick.

 

[JaegerDice]

This makes absolutely no sense. Celebrini will never have the impact a Kucherov or Kaprizov have on the game.

Toews was never as impactful as Kane despite what some Hawks fans told themselves years ago. No one is taking Bergeron over Kucherov.

Good lord, no.

Toews was measurably more impactful than Kane from 2009-2015, and indeed his impact was a huge reason the Blackhawks were so successful through that period .

Indeed the downfall of the Blackhawks was largely due to Toews impact dropping below Kane’s. Once Kane became the best player on the Blackhawks, and the player they relied most on, the team’s fate was sealed.

Like a star whose core had begun to produce iron, it was not a matter of if the Blackhawks would die with Kane as their best player, but how big the explosion would be.

 

[TimeZone]

You wrote all of this just to be wrong again?

Context is very important.

Celebrini plays 20 minutes a night on the 1st line with Eklund (22 points) and Zetterlund (19 points) as his most common linemates, both of those guys have better play driving stats and suggest they boost Celebrini up


Michkov, who is scoring at a higher P/60 rate from the 3rd line getting 17:26 minutes plays with most common linemates of Frost (10 points) and Tippet (12 points), which michkov by far has the best play driving stats of the 3.


So.... Do you we go by your PPG rate or my P60 rate? i don't think we'll agree on either so lets just go by the REAL stats

Michkov has more goals
Michkov has double the assist
Michkov is a plus player on a minus 10 team
Michkov has more ESP
Michkov has more PPP
Michkov has better XGF stats
Michkov has better XGA stats

I mean, Celebrini has no REAL advantage on any REAL stats. And i'm sure you saw the game they played head to head?


This makes absolutely no sense. Celebrini will never have the impact a Kucherov or Kaprizov have on the game.

Toews was never as impactful as Kane despite what some Hawks fans told themselves years ago. No one is taking Bergeron over Kucherov.

"Macklin Celebrini has a higher PPG and GPG than Michkov thus far this season"

Please go into detail and tell me how either of these objectice facts are wrong, I can't wait for your response. Don't avoid the question, don't move the goal posts, acknowledge and respond to it.

Michkov has one more goal in 9 more games, he's produced less while playing easier minutes against inferior competition.


Michkov has more goals
Michkov has double the assist
Michkov is a plus player on a minus 10 team
Michkov has more ESP
Michkov has more PPP
Michkov has better XGF stats
Michkov has better XGA stats"

Stating this about a player who has literally played 65% more games than the other is wild. You also clearly have no idea how to implement advanced statistics, Michkov gets 75% ozone starts, Celebrini 10% less while conpeting against other teams top players entering tonight, in other words he plays against significantly superior competition at even strength, he's also nearly 2 full years younger, Michkov will be 20 years old within a couple weeks, which is exactly why I stated what I did at the end of my initial post, which you clearly didn't read.

I stated I expected Celebrini to cool off and Michkov, Hutson to compete for the calder, very clearly. Your miniscule XGA/XGF data holds no weight here, nor does pretending a player scoring on every 5th shot he puts on goal thus far in his rookie season is "unlucky", that's an absolutely absurd take.

I also agree, context is important.

So tell me

Player A has 9 goals, 10 assists in 23 games played. Good for a GPG of 0.39, a points per game of 0.82.

Player B has 8 goals, 5 assists in 14 games played, a GPG of 0.57, a points per game of 0.92.

Somebody says, now lets just call them "TimeZone" for anonymity purposes... "player B has the higher points per game, higher goals per game so far this Season"

Another individual chimes in, again we won't use names here, same logic applies in regards to anonymity, so we'll just call this person "Sasso09" and "Sasso09" says "No that's not true, you're wrong TimeZone"

Is "TimeZone" indeed wrong? Is 0.82 higher than 0.92? Is 0.39 higher than 0.57?

Just acknowledge and answer the question here please, don't deflect, be honest and answer the question.

Does player A or player B currently have the higher GPG and PPG? Is TimeZone right, or was Sasso correct?

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Lies

Michkov P/60 2.85 on 3rd line
Celebrini P/60 2.78 on 1st line
Bedard P/60 2.27 on 1st line

Michkov has scored at the highest rate and with a larger sample size. Exhale that chest homie

I didn’t lie about anything. Celebrini has played 2nd and 3rd line minutes. Michkov has 19 points in 23. Celebrini currently has 14 in 15. Celebrini is at a higher rate overall. And btw, you want to argue usage? 1st line minutes means you also face stiffer competition than 3rd line minutes

The irony is I quite literally stated at the bottom that I fully anticipate Michkov to have the better numbers at the end of the year, being as he's nearly 2 years older and playing easier minutes against inferior competition on a better team.

Instead of accept that he chose to go down the route of arguing literal objective facts.

You would think if you put this much energy into something, you could at least be good at it.

Agreed. Michkov may very well end the season with more points. But the usage argument is
fallacious because as you said, Michkov is playing easier minutes on a better team. Not to mention Celebrini doesn’t cheat for offense.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

I voted Celebrini am I crazy? I'm so impressed at his overall game when I watch him

I voted Celebrini as well, as a complete player he's the safe pick.

 

[Czechboy]

Great question.. I took Bedard as I just think he'll be dynamite once he figures it out. The other 2 are amazing too.

 

[Connor McConnor]

They’re not putrid

View attachment 937350

Bedard’s last year were putrid

View attachment 937352

Some relative numbers aren’t great but it’s also one of those things where it’s tough to get a proper read on a poor team and even if you’re doing things well, others guys might not be and the variance in small numbers doesn’t always account for that.

Micro stats like puck battles are also one of those things where the overall defensive game might not be there yet but they show that the building blocks are there for it. Matthews was pretty similar as a rookie where you could tell he was going to be a strong defensive player but the underlying numbers didn’t quite back it up until a few years later. I’d argue Celebrini looks like the most complete rookie forward to enter the league since Matthews.

I mean to be fair the Sharks probably have 3x the talent around Mack than Bedard has ever played with. I was a guy that was extremely critical of posters overrated Bedard before he came into the league but now I’m defending him because he’s getting underrated in this thread.

 

[Regal]

I mean to be fair the Sharks probably have 3x the talent around Mack than Bedard has ever played with. I was a guy that was extremely critical of posters overrated Bedard before he came into the league but now I’m defending him because he’s getting underrated in this thread.

I think Bedard’s getting underrated too but as much as Celebrini has some better talent, I think he’s also a better play driver which helps maximize the talent around him. I’m not sure if Bedard would be much better than he has been if he were on San Jose. Bedard feels like he needs to play off an elite transition player right now.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I mean to be fair the Sharks probably have 3x the talent around Mack than Bedard has ever played with. I was a guy that was extremely critical of posters overrated Bedard before he came into the league but now I’m defending him because he’s getting underrated in this thread.

I was thinking the same thing when I was thinking about their forward linemates, but it's not as cut and dry when you take their defenseman linemates into account as well. The most common defensemen that Bedard has shared the ice with at 5v5 are Alex Vlasic and Seth Jones, both legit top pair guys. By comparison, the most common defensemen that Celebrini has shared the ice with at 5v5 are Cody Ceci and Mario Ferraro, two replacement level guys.

It's fair to say Celebrini has better teammates. But "3x the talent" is hyperbole.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Bedard is really good.

Just felt like I should break up some of this Celebrini/Michkov love/hate fest.