Prospect Info: BCHL prospects

[Beacon]

We had this discussion in an old prospect poll, but I think it's worth having it here because it's worth understanding the quality of different hockey leagues in comparing players.

What you've neglected to mention is that the V's were a loaded team.

I can't believe you think that a BCHL should be on par with a Major Junior team or a D1 school!

The V's went what, 52-4 or something ? Fogarty got something like 80 odd points. He then went on to college. To say that he was only seventh in scoring doesn't tell the whole story is my point. The V's were an unusually dominant team WITH A LOT OF TALENT. If you don't get that, I don't know what to tell you.

I don't think it should be on par, I know that it's not. The top players for the Vees went on to play college. As 22 year olds by now, they still couldn't hit point per game. None of the top players did. And that's considering that they got 2 additional years of coaching and maturation by now.

Bodie scored a point per game as a DEFENSEMAN and he's regarded as a second or third tier prospect. Chris McCarthy is viewed as a third-rate prospect and he had over a point per game. Haggerty is a second tier prospect and he had 1.23 points per game.

The point is that college has a ton of players scoring a point per game who aren't even top prospects, in many cases they go on to play ECHL hockey. And yet none of the players on the "loaded" Vees team could match that. I am sure I'll get the standard response that stats don't tell the whole story, and while that's true, nobody regards any of the "loaded" Vees prospects as blue chippers. Their top players are second or third rate prospects, and the rest of the team is probably not good enough to play in the ECHL.

Almost their whole team is downright crap by college standards. No matter how "loaded" the Vees were by BCHL standards, they were a crap team by the D1 standard. That Fogarty wasn't one of their top players was a bad omen. Their top guys became average D1 players and that's precisely what his BCHL production predicted: he's a below average player on his college team.

People need to understand just how big a gap is between D1 and the BCHL: if you can play in D1, you play there. You play in the BCHL only if you aren't good enough. So if a solid player accidentally winds up there, he's just dominant at that level. Fogarty wasn't dominant in the BCHL because he was not someone who accidentally wound up there, he belonged there as someone not good enough to play D1 in his post-draft season.

Click to read more...

 

[nyr2k2]

I agree with the general point about the BCHL being significantly inferior to D1 NCAA hockey, but I disagree with the statement that a guy would only play in the BCHL because he's not good enough to play NCAA hockey.

Fogarty had three options following his draft year: play another season in the USHL (which the Rangers didn't want him to do), join Edmonton in the WHL (which the Rangers wanted him to do), or head to the BCHL to preserve his amateur status and play NCAA hockey with Notre Dame (which Fogarty really wanted to do, and the Rangers were okay with). Choosing a year in the USHL or BCHL prior to entering the NCAA in itself does not necessarily indicate a lack of ability to play in the NCAA. There are other factors at play.

Look no further than a couple guys we just drafted to see why someone would opt for another year in the USHL or BCHL--Ryan Mantha could potentially opt for another year in the USHL rather than receiving limited playing time at powerhouse North Dakota, and Tyler Nanne is going to spend his post-draft season in the USHL before joining Ohio State in 2015. Both of those guys could very well have found themselves a spot on a D1 program had that been their true desire. However, Mantha would have had a hard time getting regular ice time with UND returning eight defenseman, and Nanne apparently really wanted to play for Steve Rohlik who is close to the Nanne family. So yeah, those guys might be "good enough" to play D1 hockey right now, but they were very particular about where they'd play D1 hockey, and the circumstances were such that they're not going to do it this year (or at all, likely in the case of Mantha who will probably join the OHL).

You can certainly evaluate a player's production based on the league they're in and draw conclusions accordingly. I agree that Fogarty's production in the BCHL provided cause for concern. However, you can't make blanket statements that "A guy is only in league X because he's not good enough to be in league Y." There are FAR too many exceptions to turn a generalization into a rule.

 

[eco's bones]

There are kids that want to go the college/university route. They cannot play in the CHL if they do. They have to keep up their grades as well. They can't chuck that. There are college feeder leagues in both the United States and Canada. The BCHL is just one of them. They're competitive leagues. They're not on par with the CHL though--though the USHL seems to be getting there by increments. Most college freshmen these days seem to have hit 20 years old already. At college they're playing guys between 19 and 25. The schedules are shorter and there is more practice time but they've also got to juggle it with schoolwork. It's not easy. They can't just focus on the game. Playing a 72 game CHL schedule and bussing everywhere isn't easy either but players only really have to focus on hockey.

NHL teams can see how a player develops in his early 20's. It's what happened with Bodie, Haggerty, McCarthy. I expect all three of them to become pretty decent players in time. I think all three of them are potential NHL players and I'd rate their chances better than some of our CHL drafted players whether still in junior or now pro. They're at least equal to a Tambellini or a Graves in my eyes.

 

[eco's bones]

I agree with the general point about the BCHL being significantly inferior to D1 NCAA hockey, but I disagree with the statement that a guy would only play in the BCHL because he's not good enough to play NCAA hockey.

Fogarty had three options following his draft year: play another season in the USHL (which the Rangers didn't want him to do), join Edmonton in the WHL (which the Rangers wanted him to do), or head to the BCHL to preserve his amateur status and play NCAA hockey with Notre Dame (which Fogarty really wanted to do, and the Rangers were okay with). Choosing a year in the USHL or BCHL prior to entering the NCAA in itself does not necessarily indicate a lack of ability to play in the NCAA. There are other factors at play.

Look no further than a couple guys we just drafted to see why someone would opt for another year in the USHL or BCHL--Ryan Mantha could potentially opt for another year in the USHL rather than receiving limited playing time at powerhouse North Dakota, and Tyler Nanne is going to spend his post-draft season in the USHL before joining Ohio State in 2015. Both of those guys could very well have found themselves a spot on a D1 program had that been their true desire. However, Mantha would have had a hard time getting regular ice time with UND returning eight defenseman, and Nanne apparently really wanted to play for Steve Rohlik who is close to the Nanne family. So yeah, those guys might be "good enough" to play D1 hockey right now, but they were very particular about where they'd play D1 hockey, and the circumstances were such that they're not going to do it this year (or at all, likely in the case of Mantha who will probably join the OHL).

You can certainly evaluate a player's production based on the league they're in and draw conclusions accordingly. I agree that Fogarty's production in the BCHL provided cause for concern. However, you can't make blanket statements that "A guy is only in league X because he's not good enough to be in league Y." There are FAR too many exceptions to turn a generalization into a rule.

Speaking of Fogarty--what I've heard of the Notre Dame program is that it really focuses on a players all around game. Got to learn the defensive side of the game or you don't play. Riley Sheahan was not a big time scorer in college--he's turned into a pretty good player for the Red Wings nonetheless. The glitz has pretty much rubbed off on Fogarty but he's still got two more years left. This is a very important season for Fogarty IMO--if he gets the offense going more he probably gets back in the picture.

 

[Don Chytil]

It's not as black and white as you make it out to be, OP. Your post reads like you have something against Fogarty and the BCHL for whatever reason. Of course the league isn't on par with the NCAA, did anyone ever say it was?

Their top guys became average D1 players

Lucia and Mike Reilly were on that Vees team - I'd say they're better than your average NCAA player, no?

I don't know why you use points per game as your main metric here as Fogarty doesn't project to be a scorer at the NHL level. I watched a few Notre Dame games and Fogarty didn't get much ice time, but when he did he was mostly used in defensive situations. Maybe he has a chance of becoming a Blair Betts type at the NHL level (who didn't make the NHL full time until 25), which is actually pretty decent as far as 3rd rounders go.

Don't get me wrong, I prefer boom or bust picks like Duclair and Buch any day of the week, but the negative comments about the BCHL and Fogarty seem too generalized.

 

[nyr2k2]

Fogarty is interesting because when he was drafted, he was a guy that had an offensive pedigree coming out of MN high school hockey, and his primary developmental focus in the BCHL was his defensive game. The reports at the time indicated that he made great strides in that area while in Penticton, and now he's used almost exclusively in that capacity at Notre Dame.

Does he have latent offensive ability that he just hasn't yet displayed in college? I don't know. I doubt it. However, this will be the year for him to show it. He's a very good defensive forward that still has an outside shot to make it as a pro. If he shows some offensive development this season he'll again be on the radar as a guy that has a shot to make it as bottom six player in the league.

The comparables for Fogarty are few and far between with regards to his development path; however, that doesn't mean that he can't make it. I think Beac's larger point is that statistical analysis of his production at various levels indicates that he's an extreme long shot at this point. That's probably true.

This is the year for him, I think. Either he steps it up and becomes an all-situations player for Notre Dame, or he fades into obscurity.

Speaking of Fogarty--what I've heard of the Notre Dame program is that it really focuses on a players all around game. Got to learn the defensive side of the game or you don't play. Riley Sheahan was not a big time scorer in college--he's turned into a pretty good player for the Red Wings nonetheless. The glitz has pretty much rubbed off on Fogarty but he's still got two more years left. This is a very important season for Fogarty IMO--if he gets the offense going more he probably gets back in the picture.

Agreed all around.

 

[RangerBoy]

It's a big year for Nieves and MSC too. Nieves will also be a junior. He needs to have a much better season. He should be one of the top players on Michigan. St. Croix spent most of last season in the east coast league. Nieves has all of the ability. Maybe he will be a 4 year college player like Hagelin but you want to see improvement every year. He took a step back last season.

 

[eco's bones]

It's a big year for Nieves and MSC too. Nieves will also be a junior. He needs to have a much better season. He should be one of the top players on Michigan. St. Croix spent most of last season in the east coast league. Nieves has all of the ability. Maybe he will be a 4 year college player like Hagelin but you want to see improvement every year. He took a step back last season.

I'd agree. Both Nieves and St. Croix had disappointing seasons as well. Tambellini was having a horrible season before he left North Dakota and went to the WHL. Since then some people think he was a great pick. Yogan was another one who took a step back. IMO Hrivik did too.

 

[nyr2k2]

I think Nieves' season, while disappointing, would more appropriately be described as "stuck in neutral" rather than taking a step back. He looked exactly like he did his freshman season, to me anyway, save for the fact that he couldn't catch a break offensively and eventually was demoted down the lineup. He's young enough that a season like that shouldn't be held against him. Definitely has to show gains this year though. I can't chalk up two consecutive years to bad luck and circumstance.

 

[Beacon]

I agree with the general point about the BCHL being significantly inferior to D1 NCAA hockey, but I disagree with the statement that a guy would only play in the BCHL because he's not good enough to play NCAA hockey... There are FAR too many exceptions to turn a generalization into a rule.

I agree that there are exceptions and I mentioned them. However, the exceptions should be dominant at that level.

- Lundqvist wound up in the SEL in 2004-05 because of the lockout and was there prior to that because of his contract. But he just dominated that league. He won goalie of the year awards in Sweden 3 seasons in a row and had given up about a goal less per game than the team's other goalie each of these seasons. Lundqvist won TWO league MVP awards in 2005 (one by players, one by the league) despite the fact that it had many NHLers who were locked out playing there.

- Derek Stepan made enough improvement in the 2009 calendar year to be ready by 2010. But since he couldn't play in the NHL, he was in the WJC. As I'm sure you remember, he looked like a father toying with his sons on the ice. It just didn't look fair. Stepan was the best player on the ice in nearly every game as he captained his underdog team to a WJC championship and led the tournament in scoring.


I can give many examples like this, but the point is that if you are an "exception", you should play like an exception. Fogarty was in no way exceptional at the BCHL level, he was just another solid player.

 

[Beacon]

I don't know why you use points per game as your main metric here as Fogarty doesn't project to be a scorer at the NHL level.

People confuse what it takes to be able to score at the NHL level with what it takes at a lower level. Let me ask you this: Is Brian Boyle a scorer in the NHL? No, right? But if you put him on a high school team, don't you think he'll be able to outskate and bulldoze over everyone to score an unlimited number of points there?

To play in the NHL, you need to have superior speed (even a slow NHLer is decently fast by lower-league standards), good on-ice vision, ability to pass stick to stick, usually good size (unless you have extraordinary skill). All these allow you to score against lower-level competition.

The inability to put up points at lower leagues is a sign that you do not make good passes, do not outskate your competition, do not know how to use your body to drive to the net, etc. You do not need a Ray Sheppard shot to score at a lower league, you just need to have good overall ability.

Look at Sam Noreau. The kid is a big, slow, stay-at-home defenseman, who will get no more than a couple of lucky assists per season if he makes the NHL. Yet, he had 0.5 points per game in juniors. That was purely because he could see the ice better than most junior defensemen. Similarly, most junior forwards who get 80-85 points over 68 games in their final junior season had a hard time adjusting to the AHL and have a difficult road to the NHL.

 

[Beacon]

It's a big year for Nieves and MSC too. Nieves will also be a junior. He needs to have a much better season. He should be one of the top players on Michigan. St. Croix spent most of last season in the east coast league. Nieves has all of the ability. Maybe he will be a 4 year college player like Hagelin but you want to see improvement every year. He took a step back last season.

People are more down on Nieves than they should be. He really had only half a bad season in his two years there. The second half of the sophomore season was very strong for Nieves.

 

[RangerBoy]

“He’s a more talented player than what his stats show,†Jackson said of Fogarty. “When you see guys get it going, it helps their confidence and gives us more depth offensively.â€

http://www.southbendtribune.com/spo...cle_2f04cba2-80f8-11e3-b533-0019bb30f31a.html

Jeff Jackson made that comment after Fogarty scored his first goal in three months last season.

 

[RangerBoy]

Boo Nieves also went 3 months between goals last season. His first goal was scored on October 12th. His second goal came on February 21. In between those goals,he had 9 assists in 23-24 games. The players who make the NHL improve each year or maintain their level of play. Nieves had 3 goals last season. He had one goal for the first 3 months of the season. Nieves finished up the season with 22 points and 12 of those points came in the last 10 games.He needs to be better.

 

[doncherrysgrill]

If you're drafting a BCHL kid, you're in for the long haul. Nobody is expecting these kids to come out of the league and compete for a roster spot, but you see something in them that with the right developmental path could turn into a good player one day. It's just like this season when the Blackhawks and Leafs drafted kids out of the USPHL (below the USHL). You see the raw talent in a kid who hasn't put it all together and you think if you help guide them through the development process that player can be a pro one day.

With Fogarty specifically, I think the draw specifically was his frame and offensive upside. People see a big body and nice hands (what Fogarty was known for in high school) and see the raw talent there. At the time, I liked the pick. I still do. Drafting is not an exact science and every pick is going to develop differently. To be honest, I think Fogarty is a kid who would have benefited from an extra year in the BCHL OR even better I think the USHL would have been a better route for him. NCAA hockey has clearly been tough for him to develop, but he also came in with a year left on his junior eligibility and as a raw talent.

Fogarty is one of those guys that at age 25 could actually make an impact in the NHL. He's got the tools, he just needs to refine everything. I like the kid. He was a low-risk in the 3rd round, and that 2011 class wasn't exactly deep. Who else are you taking in the 3rd round there, maybe Nick Shore? A knock against him is that Fogarty was definitely more of a guy that could have been molded into a Torts player than he is an AV guy.