Average NHL players peak age at each position

[authentic]

What age do you believe is the peak of the average NHL player at each position? I would guess it's around 27 for forwards, around 30 or so for defensemen and a bit older for goaltenders. I'm thinking dating back to the 90s, as training, nutrition, etc. before then was not remotely comparable to now for the majority of athletes. Are there any studies that have shown this? If so please post them.

 

[Newusername]

24-26 for forwards
25-28 for d
28-30 for goalies
Of course this is all subjective, every player is different

 

[authentic]

24-26 for forwards
25-28 for d
28-30 for goalies
Of course this is all subjective, every player is different

Of course, I was just trying to figure out the average. I'm sure there have been studies done but I'm too lazy to search for them at the moment.

 

[Appleyard]

Going of era adjusted points per 82 of 136 peak top end forwards born in the years 1968-1981:

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/09/peak-decline-elite-nhl-forwards/
&
http://alongtheboards.com/2015/11/the-peak-and-decline-of-1st-line-nhl-forwards/


Goal-scoring peaks for elite forwards at age 26-27.
Assist-making peaks for elite forwards at age 28-29.
Overall production peaks for elite forwards at age 27-28.

Goal-scoring peaks for 1st line, non-elite forwards at age 25-26.
Assist-making peaks for 1st line, non-elite forwards at age 27.
Overall production peaks for 1st line, non-elite forwards at age 26-27.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Different for every player but I'd say 25-29 probably is probably the area.

I think primes can last till 32 or 33 for forwards
35 for defenseman
37 for goalies

 

[CanadienShark]

Of course, I was just trying to figure out the average. I'm sure there have been studies done but I'm too lazy to search for them at the moment.

The average (mean) is a generally useless number in many cases, imo. You need an accurate distribution in order to see what the "true" peak age is for most people.

 

[L13]

P/60 production for forwards peaks at 24 on average. There have been several quantitative studies that show this. IIRC the reason so many forwards seem to get more points later in their careers is that they get more ice-time in their late twenties.

 

[Fonzerelli]

P/60 production for forwards peaks at 24 on average. There have been several quantitative studies that show this. IIRC the reason so many forwards seem to get more points later in their careers is that they get more ice-time in their late twenties.

Great point!

 

[DJJones]

Great point!

Except that negates having tougher minutes. I don't think it's fair to say that a forward is past his peak because he's taking tougher assignments and has a lower P/60 from when he was a protected 2nd or 3rd liner.

I think defense is probably 28-32. Nice blend of skill and experience.

Someone like Karlsson may lose his competitive edge a bit sooner but that's what I would say is the average nowadays.

 

[authentic]

The average (mean) is a generally useless number in many cases, imo. You need an accurate distribution in order to see what the "true" peak age is for most people.

Yeah I agree, I was just wondering. I see a lot on here that the average peak of forwards (especially elite ones) is early to mid 20s, and based on what I am seeing so far in this thread it supports my opinion that this is not true.

 

[DJJones]

Yeah I agree, I was just wondering. I see a lot on here that the average peak of forwards (especially elite ones) is early to mid 20s, and based on what I am seeing so far in this thread it supports my opinion that this is not true.

I think Patrick Kane was kind of a poster boy for that theory. This year threw a wrench in that though.

Crosby and Ovechkins early dominance was probably due to the rule changes.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Except that negates having tougher minutes. I don't think it's fair to say that a forward is past his peak because he's taking tougher assignments and has a lower P/60 from when he was a protected 2nd or 3rd liner.

I think defense is probably 28-32. Nice blend of skill and experience.

Someone like Karlsson may lose his competitive edge a bit sooner but that's what I would say is the average nowadays.

If we're looking at high end players, how many of them are sheltered at 24? By that time, most guys have at least a couple of seasons in the NHL (and often more like five); teams will be matching lines against them as much at that age as when they're 30.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Going of era adjusted points per 82 of 136 peak top end forwards born in the years 1968-1981:

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/09/peak-decline-elite-nhl-forwards/
&
http://alongtheboards.com/2015/11/the-peak-and-decline-of-1st-line-nhl-forwards/


Goal-scoring peaks for elite forwards at age 26-27.
Assist-making peaks for elite forwards at age 28-29.
Overall production peaks for elite forwards at age 27-28.

Goal-scoring peaks for 1st line, non-elite forwards at age 25-26.
Assist-making peaks for 1st line, non-elite forwards at age 27.
Overall production peaks for 1st line, non-elite forwards at age 26-27.

Huh, I thought peak scoring was 23-25. Interesting

 

[Solmors]

I think it is different for centers and wingers even. You see a lot of centers putting up elite points well into their 30s (ex. Thornton), but wingers usually burn out earlier (exception being Jagr, the man who never ages). Wingers peak youngest, then centers, then D, then G.

Wing: 24-25
Center: 26-27
Defense: 28-29
Goalie: 29-30

 

[authentic]

I found this part specifically very interesting and flys in the face of the early 20s crowd usually being superior producers on average.

As can be seen, 27 is the age where the average elite player seems to be at their most productive, which is entirely understandable given this age is right at their peak in goals per game and just before their peak in assists per game. Interestingly however is that the “peak” period seems to clearly be from age 26 to 29, though the average player age 30 is approximately as productive as he was aged 24 and 25, and the average 31 and 32 year old elite forwards are more productive that their 22 and 23 year old counterparts.

 

[authentic]

Another thing to consider is the league getting better. A player could stay virtually the same in every aspect for a number of years and all things being equal (which they almost never are mind you) would likely show a slight decline due to the league steadily improving.

 

[DJJones]

If we're looking at high end players, how many of them are sheltered at 24? By that time, most guys have at least a couple of seasons in the NHL (and often more like five); teams will be matching lines against them as much at that age as when they're 30.

Their whole reasoning was that players point totals increase in the late 20's because their minutes went up. Elite players are already playing top minutes at 24 so I think they were referring to more average players