Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[bobholly39]

I'm starting to think Auston Matthews is more likely to end up over 800 career goals vs under - and that he may even make a run at 894.

Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin are born on the same calendar day (Sep 17th), so it makes age to age comparisons easy for career goals.

As of January 29th 2024, here is how they compare at the exact same age:

Ovechkin - 522 games, 321 goals. Average of 50 goals per 82 games
Matthews - 527 games, 339 goals. Average of 53 goals per 82 games

Ovechkin did start at age 20, but Matthews missed more time (injuries + covid years) so that their games played are actually quite close. Matthews is also in the middle of an incredible peak season, whereas Ovechkin had lower total at same age as well as the following year (rocket but lockout year), so Matthews is going to continue to widen the gap for the next 1.5 years.

Here's a realistic scenario for where Matthews might be vs Ovechkin by the end of next year.

Ovechkin from Jan 29th 2012 until end of 2013 season only adds 50 goals total (off year in 2012, short lockout year in 2013) for 371 total after age 27.

Matthews right now is on pace for 71 goals this season. Let's say he finishes with 65 (+25) and pots 57 next year, that would put him at 421 at the end of next year, or exactly 50 goals above Ovechkin age for age after age 27 season.

After age 27 - Ovechkin will be very hard to pace. 6 rockets in 7 years, yearly average of 48 goals over those 7 seasons.
Let's conservatively say Matthew can average 40 goals in those 7 years, that would put him at 701 career goals after age 34 (vs 706 for Ovechkin).

If Ovechkin finishes with ~20 goals this season (he's on pace for 16), that would give him a yearly average of 34 goals from ages 35-38. That's actually a bit low - Covid + off year this season/injury have hurt Ovechkin a bit in this stretch.
Brett Hull from ages 35-38 averages 33 goals per year, and this was in the midst of the dead puck era.

Even if you want to be more conservative for Matthews and estimate 30 goals per year for ages 35-38 (so scoring less than Brett Hull in a much higher scoring league), that now puts him at 821career goals after age 38 season.

The league has seen a higher scoring trend for a few years now, and it seems unlikely that's going away anytime soon. It's possible that some of those goal estimates for Matthews in a higher scoring league are actually conservative - if you bump him +5 goals from ages 28-38, that would still have him ageing worst than Ovechkin but still place him at 876 goals instead after age 38 season.

Here's a cleaner way to summarize this:

Brett Hull ages 28-34 averaged 41 goals per year. (seasons 92-93 to 98-99)
Ovechkin ages 28-34 averages 48 goals per year. (seasons (2013-2014 to 2019-2020)

Brett Hull ages 35-38 averaged 33 goals per year (seasons 1999-2000 to 2002-2003). 33 goals average in middle of DPE
Ovechkin ages 35-38 (assuming 20 goals this year) will have averaged 34 goals per year (2021 to 23-24).

If Matthews scores as much as Brett Hull in those years (much higher scoring league is likely for Matthews) it places him at - 840 goals at age 38.

For the longest time I was saying Matthews was heading at ~90%+ liklelihood to 600+ career goals, ~50% likelihood of 700+ and ~5-10% at 800+. Is it time to revise these estimates?

How likely do you think Matthews is to surpass 800 career goals, or even make a run at 894?

I'm starting to think he has a very good shot.

Career ending/altering injuries is also possible of course - but barring that, assuming he ages normally for a player of his stature, I'm starting to think there's more than a 50% chance he surpasses Gordie Howe's 801 career goals and ends up no lower than #3 all-time.

Click to read more...

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

It's really all about the chances of staying healthy for a long period.

If Matthews does stay injury free, I think you are right, his chances of passing Howe are very good.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The likelihood he hits 800 is very low. The likelihood he hits 894 is much lower.

Ovechkin has had freakish longevity as a goalscorer. Not only being elite as a rookie, but being elite at age 37 and every year in between (from a goalscoring perspective).

If you look at the top goal list, spots 2-4 had 99.9 percentile longevity as a goalscorer. And Hull at 5 had a top 5/top 10 peak in one of the highest scoring eras with very strong longevity.

Matthews had the elite rookie season. And is peaking in a high scoring era. But I wouldn't assume he would do things like score 50 goals at 36 and 40 at 37 like Ovechkin.

At some point, scoring will drop again. Hopefully not to DPE 1 or 2 levels, but it's a possibility. In a world of counting raw stats, losing 10 goals a year for a 10 year period because of scoring levels will be killer.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Matthews has a few things going for him.

Scoring is up in the NHL. Especially compared to say 10 years ago. If the league, like the rest of the NA sports, wants to continue to drive fan participation both in game and with sports betting, scoring will remain artificially inflated.

He's a more accurate shot than Ovechkin, who is and will always be marked as a volume scorer, especially once I finish my shot study.

Staying healthy in a league that has absolutely become less physically abrasive bodes well for staying healthy.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Gretzky, Howe, Ovechkin, and Jagr all had remarkable durability through age 30 (and the latter 3 through age 38+). Even if Matthews has normal durability, he won't hit the totals just from a GP/age situation.

Player	Games Missed To Injury Through Age 26 Season	Games Missed To Injury Through Age 30 Season	Games Missed To Injury Through Age 38 Season
Gretzky	8	35	95
Ovechkin	12	17	40
Howe	0	12	19
Jagr	40	74	86
Matthews	55	55+	55+

Ovechkin's injury history is tracked online. I flipped through Howe and Gretzky's books to make sure I was getting injuries and not suspensions or something else. Jagr was honestly just games missed.

Matthews at age 26 has missed more time to injury than Ovechkin has in his career at age 38. Howe only missed 35 regular season games to injury across his entire NHL career.

Maybe he pulls a Crosby and after battling injuries in his mid 20s, has a largely healthy 27-35 stretch. Or maybe he keeps at it and missed 100 games in the next 10 years.

The key to the record, any career total record, always comes down to freakish durability paired with high peak and freakish longevity.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Will need to carry his goal scoring dominance into his 30s. 7 out of 8 rockets from age 27-34 is what gets you to 800. Matthews hasn’t turned 27 yet. Look at Crosby, won an Art Ross at 26 and has stayed pretty healthy but never won another.

 

[MadLuke]

One other element he has (not sure how serious he is about it, but he could be) is athlete science advancement.

Modern "vitamin" to steam cell juice, hot then cryo chamber therapy, sleep regiment, what would the Lebron James/Messi/Ronaldo millions a year spent on maintaining your body formula look like in 10 years when Matthews his 36....

Our referent on aging athlete could change, Lebron James is completely rewriting the book of what people could do more than 20 season in, Ovechkin in hockey regarding goal scoring past 30, Brady just did in football, are Messi-Ronaldo doing it in soccer ?

That said those things will tend to almost always derailed, that kind of consistency over time is really freakish.

 

[daver]

Ovechkin was the "Gordie Howe" of goalscorers. Maybe not the best, maybe not the greatest but his ability to stay elite well past the age when the average player regresses is significant. And he was able to put up full seasons too.

I don't see Matthews staying elite as long or being as healthy.

 

[JianYang]

We will see. Matthewa had great timing coming into the league as the game has increasingly opened up, and he has had a strong supporting cast around him for individual stat purposes. But maybe the game starts shifting to a lower scoring era again the coming years. That's hard to predict.

And even if the game remains opened up, I think ovechkin's longevity to be scoring at such a high rate is the most impressive part of his career. Most goal scorers start tapering off well before ovechkin did. Whether matthews has that same longevity, we will see.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Ovechkin was the "Gordie Howe" of goalscorers. Maybe not the best, maybe not the greatest but his ability to stay elite well past the age when the average player regresses is significant. And he was able to put up full seasons too.

I don't see Matthews staying elite as long or being as healthy.

Pretty clearly the best and greatest. Any raw total things are just era dependent.

 

[Busher]

That’s so far away that it’s early to really think about.

From what we know at this time, particularly if he wins his 3rd Rocket, I would be more comfortable pinning him as the premier goal scorer of his generation (the 2020s decade), and the current title holder in a line of 3x Rocket winning goal scoring greats:

1920s - Babe Dye
1930s - Charlie Conacher
1940s - Maurice Richard
1950s - Gordie Howe
1960s - Bobby Hull
1970s - Phil Esposito
1980s - Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux
1990s - Brett Hull, Teemu Selanne, Pavel Bure
2010s - Alex Ovechkin
2020s - Auston Matthews

I’d also view Matthews as one of the four premier centermen of his generation, along with McDavid, Mackinnon and Draisaitl. Recent generations seem to have around four centermen that define their era, though sometimes less:

- Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Yzerman
- Sakic, Forsberg, Lindros, Fedorov
- Crosby, Malkin
- McDavid, Matthews, Mackinnon, Draisaitl

The four centremen of this era seem to be the ones trading 1st and 2nd team all star selections and major awards between themselves, almost to the exclusion of all other others, creating a chasm between them and all the other centremen. I think this is where Matthews’ place in hockey lies.

But 800 goals? For me, too early to speculate. It’ll depend on when he hits, 500, 600 goals.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

What's put Ovechkin in the case for Gretzky's record is not his goal-scoring performance through age 26. It's that his goal-scoring ability has persisted with age at a rate beyond (nearly) every great goal scorer in the league.

 

[ImporterExporter]

What's put Ovechkin in the case for Gretzky's record is not his goal-scoring performance through age 26. It's that his goal-scoring ability has persisted with age at a rate beyond (nearly) every great goal scorer in the league.

His durability is easily his 2nd best quality behind the obvious goal bonanzas. Especially considering the style he played the first 6ish years in the league.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The four centremen of this era seem to be the ones trading 1st and 2nd team all star selections and major awards between themselves, almost to the exclusion of all other others, creating a chasm between them and all the other centremen. I think this is where Matthews’ place in hockey lies.

This is an interesting note.

Starting in 2016-17 (the first time any of them got on an AS team).

Year	1st AS	2nd AS
2016-17	McDavid	Crosby
2017-18	McDavid	MacKinnon
2018-19	McDavid	Crosby
2019-20	Draisaitl	MacKinnon
2020-21	McDavid	Matthews
2021-22	Matthews	McDavid
2022-23	McDavid	Draisaitl

In this 7 year stretch, it's just been those four players + Crosby twice. In total.

McDavid: 6 (5 1st, 1 2nd)
Matthews: 2 (1 1st, 1 2nd)
Draisaitl: 2 (1 1st, 1 2nd)
MacKinnon: 2 (0 1st, 2 2nd)
Crosby: 2 (0 1st, 2 2nd)

This year, MacKinnon will be the 1st AS and one of McDavid or Matthews will be 2nd AS.

So that'll be an 8 season stretch where 4 (plus Crosby) players have locked down all the centre AS teams.

Neat.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

No.

His higher per age vs Ovechkin purely comes down to the scoring era they each were in.

Also, he already has issues staying on the ice. Those dont get better with age. I dont see him having the longevity, especially the games played in his late 30s to sniff it.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Basically zero chance.. with AMs injury problems and how much of a freak Ovi was for longevity as a goal scorer, I don’t see it unless scoring continues to climb in general.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Matthews has a few things going for him.

Scoring is up in the NHL. Especially compared to say 10 years ago. If the league, like the rest of the NA sports, wants to continue to drive fan participation both in game and with sports betting, scoring will remain artificially inflated.

He's a more accurate shot than Ovechkin, who is and will always be marked as a volume scorer, especially once I finish my shot study.

Staying healthy in a league that has absolutely become less physically abrasive bodes well for staying healthy.

Would be interesting to see a study on these two players with both their Sh% and ability to hit the net, binned by shooting locations and shot types.
One thing about OV is that he hits the net more often than anyone else with a specific shot thats 1) at a very wide angle and 2) gives him no time to load up and pick a specific spot. This is of course, a choice and I'm sure he could have chosen to hang out in the middle slot more often and take catch-and-release wristers. I don't really have any reason to believe either player would benefit from swapping approaches.

 

[daver]

Pretty clearly the best and greatest. Any raw total things are just era dependent.

I don't think he has a Top 3, maybe even Top 5 goalscoring season of all time.

Wayne, Mario and Hull all have arguments for "Best".

 

[DRW895]

At the age of 27 many players scored more than Ovechkin.
From one hand: no one sees Matthews comprehending troubles/tough moments like Ovechkin`s ressurection after 2010-2012. These moment will come sooner or later.
From the other hand: 2023/24 will be only 2-nd for Auston with 50 goals. For example Wayne scored 50 last time in 28, Brett Hull in 29.

 

[sr edler]

I don't think Matthews has been that great this season. He's on at times, and scores in clusters, then goes pretty invisible for shorter to lengthier periods of time. 40 goals/18 assists is also a ridiculous (in a negative way) goals/assists ratio for a C superstar player. Remember this is a guy who said some years ago that he would like to have more assists than goals because that's what the all-time great players had.

Nylander was easily better than Matthews this season prior to signing his deal.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't think he has a Top 3, maybe even Top 5 goalscoring season of all time.

Wayne, Mario and Hull all have arguments for "Best".

Top 2 adjusted single season goals season. 7 in the (tied for) top 60.

 

[MadLuke]

His higher per age vs Ovechkin purely comes down to the scoring era they each were in.

Yes but the era gap could stay has big for a while, Ovechkin 27 to 31 years old season were quite on the low side

 

[seventieslord]

For starters, I need to preface this by saying I am only talking about compiled raw career goal totals, and not an actual comparison of the two of them as players. Because I don't really think Matthews has a case vs. Ovechkin in a peak-vs-peak comparison. But yes, Matthews has a chance to score more goals. Obviously he does, considering he's the top goalscorer right now, and in his prime, and is currently ahead of the pace. But, higher scoring in the NHL is what has made that possible (in addition to being able to play his D+1, age 19 season). OV's had his share of Cy Young type seasons, but those were after he sharply declined as an overall player and changed his game to allow the goals totals to stay high at the expense of everything else. Matthews is having Cy Young seasons in his prime!

It's crazy how, at this exact age, they have essentially the same number of career GPs, because how they got there is completely different. Matthews has missed only 38 games due to factors outside of his control (covid-shortened seasons), and already 56 more due to injury/suspension. Ovechkin had missed 82 due to the 04-05 lockout, and just 21 for other reasons. OV only missed about 38 more games in the 12 years between then and now - it's really hard to envision Matthews becoming that durable, as he's always been suceptible to the odd minor injury.

It's going to take better than expected durability, and also, league scoring level is going to have to remain where it is, or continue to rise. It's also really difficult to get inside their heads and predict how Matthews is going to deal with aging. Some players become "better" while scoring fewer goals. Others become worse but score just as many. It has a lot to do with their mental makeup, career aspirations, coaching strategy, and the overall vision of the franchise. Will Matthews make chasing career goal totals a priority? I can't say at this time whether he's the type or not.

Connor McDavid is also just 200 days older, with only 16 fewer goals, and has demonstrated he can be a Matthews level goal scorer if he wants. The conversation may one day be whether he can do it, not Matthews.

 

[daver]

Top 2 adjusted single season goals season. 7 in the (tied for) top 60.

This has as much relevance as looking at raw goal totals. But regardless, hard to say he is "clearly" the best when he has been bested according to your metric.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This has as much relevance as looking at raw goal totals. But regardless, hard to say he is "clearly" the best when he has been bested according to your metric.

You don’t see merit to era adjusting? If not, then this discussion is over.

While the intersection of peak/longevity is always up for debate, in Ovechkin’s case the overall picture based on rockets won and total goals across a difficult to score era seems pretty clear. The only case I can see against is just flat out ignoring both longevity and era, which requires a lot of mental gymnastics.