Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[authentic]

League wide efficiency going up shows that it’s currently easier to score on the PP than it was in 07-08. This is very likely due to the goalie pad limits because the numbers went up at the same time. Though running 4 forward sets probably helped as well. So if it’s easier to score on the PP today it means that time on the PP is more beneficial than the equivalent time in 07-08. While Ovechkin did benefit from more PP time overall, the advantage wasn’t quite as great as the difference in their ice time would suggest. It’s not the biggest factor in the league scoring differences (that would be ES scoring), but it is one of them.

But is being 1st or 2nd in powerplay time every year not a pretty big advantage over being 60th-70th? The difference played there wouldn’t be as advantageous for Ovechkin as it would be if Ovechkin was at his peak today, but the difference is still the same relative to the rest of the league… which does not factor into the regular scoring adjustments. I wish I could dig up that thread that calculated even strength and powerplay scoring rates separately and compared who actually played in the higher scoring environment, I know Ovechkin did up to the same point in their careers as of some point last season but I want to see it done for this season compared to 2007-08, might go do it on my own if I can find the rates for each season.

 

[Regal]

But is being 1st or 2nd in powerplay time every year not a pretty big advantage over being 60th-70th? The difference played there wouldn’t be as advantageous for Ovechkin as it would be if Ovechkin was at his peak today, but the difference is still the same relative to the rest of the league… which does not factor into the regular scoring adjustments. I wish I could dig up that thread that calculated even strength and powerplay scoring rates separately and compared who actually played in the higher scoring environment, I know Ovechkin did up to the same point in their careers as of some point last season but I want to see it done for this season compared to 2007-08, might go do it on my own if I can find the rates for each season.

Sure. It doesn’t bridge the gap on the PP. It’s just another factor

 

[authentic]

So that is a question then, is what, like 36% more opportunity make up for the rise is scoring overall. ( this is just based on their teams opportunities although Pptoi would paint a similar picture, if not more flattering to Matthews).
And if, as you say, it is Ev scoring that largely drive the increase in scoring league wide, is another knock against Ov for needing more pp goals to get to 65.
And in the same vein, if Ev scoring is what is driving up scoring league wide, Matthews is currently is, well exactly the same amount of goals up on number 2 that OV finished with. Shouldn’t number to be closer if league wide Ev and Pp scoring is up.

Even ignoring their PP opportunities entirely Matthews is having the more dominant goal scoring season up to the same point of the season. Ovechkin didn’t score his 52nd goal until his 67th game, a few others had 42 and 40 goals, Matthews currently has 52 in 55 while the runner ups have 39 and 36, and Matthews has games in hand whereas Ovechkin after his 52nd goal actually played a few more games than the runner ups. Ovechkin obviously had a strong finish to the season so assuming Matthews doesn’t slow down a ton he’s going to atleast match what Ovechkin did if not surpass it on a relative basis.

 

[Regal]

So that is a question then, is what, like 36% more opportunity make up for the rise is scoring overall. ( this is just based on their teams opportunities although Pptoi would paint a similar picture, if not more flattering to Matthews).
And if, as you say, it is Ev scoring that largely drive the increase in scoring league wide, is another knock against Ov for needing more pp goals to get to 65.
And in the same vein, if Ev scoring is what is driving up scoring league wide, Matthews is currently is, well exactly the same amount of goals up on number 2 that OV finished with. Shouldn’t number to be closer if league wide Ev and Pp scoring is up.

I’m a little confused by some of your points here. The league is higher scoring today and that’s driven by an increase in ES goals despite a decrease in PP goals. I’m not sure why Ovechkin scoring more on the PP is a knock. That’s the entire point. That there were more PPs and therefore more PP goals at that time, but that it was harder to score overall despite this. Today, PP efficiency has made it so that PP goals haven’t decreased as much as PP opportunities. It also means more ES time on ice to score in a higher ES scoring environment. Ovechkin did play more on the PP relative to the league than Matthews and this is a factor to consider. But just playing more on the PP doesn’t mean it was a higher scoring environment in itself.

As for Matthews’ lead over 2nd, he’s currently pacing for 77 goals, which would be better than Ovechkin’s season. The original post was talking about 70 goals. Also, variance at the top of the scoring leaders can make comparing to number 2 a problem. Last year #2 scored 61 goals and that’s unlikely to be the case this year. Regardless, I’m not sure why you’re suggesting the lead over number 2 should be closer. Everyone is playing in the same environment this year.

 

[saffronleaf]

it's expansion/talent dilution. vegas joined the league in 2017-18 and seattle in 2021-22. average team scoring jumped from 2.77 to 2.97 goals/game in 2017-18, stayed close to that level for a few years and then jumped to 3.14 goals/game in 2021-22. NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

also explains the insanely high scoring in the 80s

 

[AvroArrow]

Is assists don't count for much then Marner is the most over paid player in the league.....or is is Tavares?

Assists absolutely matter, there is absolutely zero chance Matthews has this season without the play of Marner. It's tough to compare, some plays you got Matthews absolutely sniping pucks, making something out of nothing. Then you get a guy like McDavid who dances around the entire team, draws all the defenders and threads the needle for a free tap in goal for a teammate. Which one counts for more in that situation ? The goal or the assist ? A situation like that, they are of equal value.

In general goals are harder to score, but it's not a black and white thing. Context absolutely matters and there's not a way we can actually properly compare them, as much as we all like to. The only thing with assists are, there can be 2 on a play but only 1 goal, I think that's why goals are generally considered greater but it's a very difficult thing to compare.

My own personal little formula is, 1 goal = .75 assist. I can't explain how I came up with it lmao but when I am comparing points between players, that's what I generally use, it's not some 100% objective thing obviously but my reasoning is, because there can be 0,1, or 2 assists on a goal, the weight of an assist should be slightly lower just to properly compare stats when doing a goalscorer vs playmaker comparison.

If we use that little formula

Matthews 52 goals + 42 assists = 70 points
McDavid 21 goals + 66 assists = 70.5 points
Kucherov 36 goals + 59 assists = 80.25 points

It's extremely close and I think it reflects what the hockey community as a whole is debating.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Assists absolutely matter, there is absolutely zero chance Matthews has this season without the play of Marner. It's tough to compare, some plays you got Matthews absolutely sniping pucks, making something out of nothing. Then you get a guy like McDavid who dances around the entire team, draws all the defenders and threads the needle for a free tap in goal for a teammate. Which one counts for more in that situation ? The goal or the assist ? A situation like that, they are of equal value.

In general goals are harder to score, but it's not a black and white thing. Context absolutely matters and there's not a way we can actually properly compare them, as much as we all like to. The only thing with assists are, there can be 2 on a play but only 1 goal, I think that's why goals are generally considered greater but it's a very difficult thing to compare.

My own personal little formula is, 1 goal = .75 assist. I can't explain how I came up with it lmao but when I am comparing points between players, that's what I generally use, it's not some 100% objective thing obviously but my reasoning is, because there can be 0,1, or 2 assists on a goal, the weight of an assist should be slightly lower just to properly compare stats when doing a goalscorer vs playmaker comparison.

If we use that little formula

Matthews 52 goals + 42 assists = 70 points
McDavid 21 goals + 66 assists = 70.5 points
Kucherov 36 goals + 59 assists = 80.25 points

It's extremely close and I think it reflects what the hockey community as a whole is debating.

Main thing with assists is there isn’t really a system-driven equivalent to a guy who, by coach design, gets the majority of touches at ES and the PP carrying the puck into the zone. Maybe a JVR/Kreider putting up big goal totals as the designated net-front guy or a Grabner on the PK/EN but generally goals have active intention behind them, while a primary puck mover can rack up a consistent amount of secondaries where he didn’t actively intend to make a scoring play (direct pass to a shooter) but rather a zone entry, pass off to the boards, and pick up a secondary assist on a tipped point shot. Likewise being the designated faceoff man on a good PP is probably worth 5-10 assists a year that have nothing to do with playmaking and are purely a systemic coaching decision.

If we could reliably separate systemic assists from on-purpose passes to shooters, I’d comfortably weigh the on purpose passes equal to goals.

 

[PaulD]

Assists absolutely matter, there is absolutely zero chance Matthews has this season without the play of Marner. It's tough to compare, some plays you got Matthews absolutely sniping pucks, making something out of nothing. Then you get a guy like McDavid who dances around the entire team, draws all the defenders and threads the needle for a free tap in goal for a teammate. Which one counts for more in that situation ? The goal or the assist ? A situation like that, they are of equal value.

In general goals are harder to score, but it's not a black and white thing. Context absolutely matters and there's not a way we can actually properly compare them, as much as we all like to. The only thing with assists are, there can be 2 on a play but only 1 goal, I think that's why goals are generally considered greater but it's a very difficult thing to compare.

My own personal little formula is, 1 goal = .75 assist. I can't explain how I came up with it lmao but when I am comparing points between players, that's what I generally use, it's not some 100% objective thing obviously but my reasoning is, because there can be 0,1, or 2 assists on a goal, the weight of an assist should be slightly lower just to properly compare stats when doing a goalscorer vs playmaker comparison.

If we use that little formula

Matthews 52 goals + 42 assists = 70 points
McDavid 21 goals + 66 assists = 70.5 points
Kucherov 36 goals + 59 assists = 80.25 points

It's extremely close and I think it reflects what the hockey community as a whole is debating.

Matthews scored 4 goal his first game.
40 his first season.
He is a scoring machine with or without Mitchy Marner.

 

[Strangle]

Yea that’s nonsense

You can’t have higher scoring without …. Players scoring more

 

[Regal]

You can’t have higher scoring without …. Players scoring more

The top scorers don’t score enough to increase the overall scoring of the league. And why would talent be condensed only on offense and not defense and goalies? And even if it’s due to an increase in offensive talent that would have an affect on their teammates (ie it’s not the direct result of the individual player). League scoring happens due to a bunch of incremental changes to the game. Laugh all you want but your opinion is nonsense

 

[authentic]

Matthews scored 4 goal his first game.
40 his first season.
He is a scoring machine with or without Mitchy Marner.

Over a goal per game this season without Marner too. A majority of his worst stretch of the season came when they played together

 

[cyris]

When McDavid does something this season that only Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr have done, people will be saying Matthews who? Even Bernie Nicholls and Alexander Mogilny put up 70 goals.

Primary points(goals + 1 assists):
Matthews 68
McDavid 61

Sorry no McDavid collecting a bunch of extra 2nd assists isn’t going to be viewed as more impressive overall.

 

[ALine]

I’m a little confused by some of your points here. The league is higher scoring today and that’s driven by an increase in ES goals despite a decrease in PP goals. I’m not sure why Ovechkin scoring more on the PP is a knock. That’s the entire point. That there were more PPs and therefore more PP goals at that time, but that it was harder to score overall despite this. Today, PP efficiency has made it so that PP goals haven’t decreased as much as PP opportunities. It also means more ES time on ice to score in a higher ES scoring environment. Ovechkin did play more on the PP relative to the league than Matthews and this is a factor to consider. But just playing more on the PP doesn’t mean it was a higher scoring environment in itself.

As for Matthews’ lead over 2nd, he’s currently pacing for 77 goals, which would be better than Ovechkin’s season. The original post was talking about 70 goals. Also, variance at the top of the scoring leaders can make comparing to number 2 a problem. Last year #2 scored 61 goals and that’s unlikely to be the case this year. Regardless, I’m not sure why you’re suggesting the lead over number 2 should be closer. Everyone is playing in the same environment this year.

I’m saying that increased pp time and opportunity is a significant factor. You should consider it with more weight than you’ve been willing to.

The ‘environment’ factors less when you boil it down to individuals and their individual team circumstances.

this isn’t ancient history here. Or even the 80’s. If we’re going carte Blanche with adjusted total then we should be ready to howie morentz the single season points champ.

 

[v00d00daddy]

When McDavid does something this season that only Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr have done, people will be saying Matthews who? Even Bernie Nicholls and Alexander Mogilny put up 70 goals.

What if matthews scores at the pace he’s at right now?

77

Only players that have scored that many are:

Gretzky
Lemieux
Hull

Will you still say stupid shit like above? Lol

 

[Strangle]

The top scorers don’t score enough to increase the overall scoring of the league. And why would talent be condensed only on offense and not defense and goalies? And even if it’s due to an increase in offensive talent that would have an affect on their teammates (ie it’s not the direct result of the individual player). League scoring happens due to a bunch of incremental changes to the game. Laugh all you want but your opinion is nonsense

You don’t realize that the NHL is a copy cat kind of league? When Gretzky or McDavid and the other high end talent are flying all over the place pushing the pace and going full offense that it effects the rest of the league and how they play?

You don’t see teams countering that by going into a defensive shell and drafting 240lb defensemen to slow these guys down, and play the trap.

They fight fire with fire.

So yes, the top end outliers absolutely effect the way games they aren’t even playing in are played.

Bobby Orr changed an entire position by himself, and we still see the effects of that 50 years later

 

[PeE eL DuBoiS]

He didn't score tonight. He's f***ing done.

 

[cyris]

He didn't score tonight. He's f***ing done.

What a scrub

 

[Divine]

Avs focused on him so hard they let Bertuzzi get a hattrick with 2 tap ins on the PP

The quest to 80 took a hit today.

 

[Offtheboard412]

You don’t realize that the NHL is a copy cat kind of league? When Gretzky or McDavid and the other high end talent are flying all over the place pushing the pace and going full offense that it effects the rest of the league and how they play?

You don’t see teams countering that by going into a defensive shell and drafting 240lb defensemen to slow these guys down, and play the trap.

They fight fire with fire.

So yes, the top end outliers absolutely effect the way games they aren’t even playing in are played.

Bobby Orr changed an entire position by himself, and we still see the effects of that 50 years later

Except it just doesn't really make sense looking at the time line of it. McDavid's first year was 15/16. He puts up 48 points in 45 games. The following year he wins the Art Ross with 100 points, which was pretty much in line with other recent Art Ross winners. The following year scoring goes up a bit after goalie restrictions were put in place and he wins the Art Ross a second time with 108 points. Nothing he had done at that point was ground breaking or completely unheard to the point that the rest of the league would suddenly feel like they were in some kind of arms race to keep up with him. We saw Crosby and Ovechkin light the league up in a similar way when they entered the league and offense didn't suddenly explode league wide because of it. In fact scoring went down afterwards.

 

[Strangle]

Except it just doesn't really make sense looking at the time line of it. McDavid's first year was 15/16. He puts up 48 points in 45 games. The following year he wins the Art Ross with 100 points, which was pretty much in line with other recent Art Ross winners. The following year scoring goes up a bit after goalie restrictions were put in place and he wins the Art Ross a second time with 108 points. Nothing he had done at that point was ground breaking or completely unheard to the point that the rest of the league would suddenly feel like they were in some kind of arms race to keep up with him. We saw Crosby and Ovechkin light the league up in a similar way when they entered the league and offense didn't suddenly explode league wide because of it. In fact scoring went down afterwards.

It’s not a coincidence that great players come along and scoring goes up. McDavid isn’t the only great player in the league right now, but he’s the most extreme outlier, along with Matthews goal scoring

Similar thing happened with Gretzky and Lemieux and the rest of those 80’s superstars

But you’re right, it’s not only one or two players, the league just has better talent than it did in the Crosby/ovechkin era

From the outliers to the middle of the road ‘stars’

Matthews/mackinnon/McDavid et al (makar, etc > Crosby/ovechkin/kane et al (Malkin, etc)

 

[hamzarocks]

It’s not a coincidence that great players come along and scoring goes up. McDavid isn’t the only great player in the league right now, but he’s the most extreme outlier, along with Matthews goal scoring

Similar thing happened with Gretzky and Lemieux and the rest of those 80’s superstars

But you’re right, it’s not only one or two players, the league just has better talent than it did in the Crosby/ovechkin era

From the outliers to the middle of the road ‘stars’

Matthews/mackinnon/McDavid et al (makar, etc > Crosby/ovechkin/kane et al (Malkin, etc)

Horrific take

The only player better than Crosby and OV from this era is

Mcdavid

Ranking them in tiers:


1. Threat to Gretzky
Mcdavid

2. Generational players
Crosby
OV

3. Franchise players;
Mack
Kuch
Geno
Drai
Matthews
Stamkos
Kane

 

[ijuka]

Bit of a shame he couldn't hit 50 in 50, this might have been the best opportunity for seeing that in decades. Although who knows, perhaps the scoring will trend higher and higher, and next season he could actually hit it.

 

[Offtheboard412]

It’s not a coincidence that great players come along and scoring goes up. McDavid isn’t the only great player in the league right now, but he’s the most extreme outlier, along with Matthews goal scoring

Similar thing happened with Gretzky and Lemieux and the rest of those 80’s superstars

But you’re right, it’s not only one or two players, the league just has better talent than it did in the Crosby/ovechkin era

From the outliers to the middle of the road ‘stars’

Matthews/mackinnon/McDavid et al (makar, etc > Crosby/ovechkin/kane et al (Malkin, etc)

Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin are better players than MacKinnon, Matthews, and Kucherov. Kucherov may have a shot a surpassing Malkin, but in reality he's at best about even with him.

Matthews is an amazing goal scorer but in reality as an all around offensive player he is not that exceptional, he has one season where he managed to score over 100 points.

McDavid is the only player that can be ranked ahead of them, and comparing his first 5 seasons head to head with Crosby's they were extremely close before Crosby ran into concussion issues.

All of these guys were around when scoring was lower, and they weren't putting up numbers anywhere near what they are now that scoring is up. Kucherov was a 90-100 point player who suddenly jumped up to 128 in 18/19 and has stayed at an 110+ pace since then. None of them were approaching 120 point paces until the 2018/2019 season when league wide scoring went up.

We see it with the older players as well. Ovechkin was scoring around 50 every year, then suddenly he was pacing for close to 60 again in his mid 30's once scoring went up.

Also, you mention Gretzky and Lemieux as if the league they entered was low scoring, when in reality the NHL was already in an era of increased scoring before they even arrived. In fact, as I stated in my previous post, scoring went DOWN during their primes. Lemieux was drafted in 1984, and by 1986 league scoring had already begun to drop. Imagine that, the two greatest offensive talents in league history, Gretzky smack dab in the middle of his prime, Lemieux in his third year and yet the league saw it's goals per game drop throughout the late 80's and into the 90's.

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

All the yapping in this thread jinxed the streak

 

[Divine]

Bit of a shame he couldn't hit 50 in 50, this might have been the best opportunity for seeing that in decades. Although who knows, perhaps the scoring will trend higher and higher, and next season he could actually hit it.

Well if Matthews did hit it this season it would have been the most impressive official 50 in 50 of all time. It would have been by far the lowest scoring era for that happen. So 50 in 54 (55 team games) is still pretty wild considering the lower scoring league.

Goals would have to go up pretty significantly for Matthews not to hit 50 in 50 in the lowest scoring era.