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Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

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ToneDog said:
Agreed 100% but when a goalie makes a big mistake the puck usually ends up in his net. Not the case for skaters.
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Bottom line we need a stopper who wins series .. so far we don't have that guy .. although we may like Soup more then Freddy bottom line results matter .. Price is toughest tender match we have had in 6 years but bottom line too many excuses for these guys .. that goal in game 7 was a house leaguer goal which should never go in on ANY pro goaler .. until we get da right guy we are screwed as playoffs are all about tenders and defense and forwards who think and play defense .. too many offensive minded fans on here who really don't understand what it takes to win playoff hockey .. Shanny knows but he has not properly instilled it in team .. he gets a FAIL too
 
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JT AM da real deal said:
Bottom line we need a stopper who wins series .. so far we don't have that guy .. although we may like Soup more then Freddy bottom line results matter .. Price is toughest tender match we have had in 6 years but bottom line too many excuses for these guys .. that goal in game 7 was a house leaguer goal which should never go in on ANY pro goaler .. until we get da right guy we are screwed as playoffs are all about tenders and defense and forwards who think and play defense .. too many offensive minded fans on here who really don't understand what it takes to win playoff hockey .. Shanny knows but he has not properly instilled it in team .. he gets a FAIL too
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"Defense wins championships"
and
" Good teams are built from the goalie out, through strong defense and strength down the middle".

People know this and that is why our Leafs provide us with some question marks that need answers. This tandem goalie thing where you have to pick the right goalie against the right matchup on any given night has me concerned.
 
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Just an exercise to take a brief look at "scoring depth".

I projected the rosters of the Atlantic playoffs contenders and calculated their 2yr Even Strength scoring Paces. Didn't want to skew the comp with mismatched PP duties. Yes there are guys listed there with small samples but there are ones on each team and I did my best to lineup the starting rosters.

Then I lined them up head to head and then decided to make it adorable by colour-coding the matchups by rank Best = Blue, 2nd = Light Blue, 3rd = White, 4th= Orange, 5th = Red.

Basically the Bluer the team the better, the Redder the team the worse.

Remember this is pure offense ranking only. The numbers you see there are (Age) Gls/Pts.

Screenshot_20210927-175852_Sheets.jpg


So as expected, the Leafs big worry spot offensively is their "2nd line" wingers, while their big strength is top-2 centers. Overall though the Leafs have good offensive depth throughout the roster compared to their Atlantic competition.

TB is really starting to hurt depth wise now.

FLA's depth is legit but they have questions at the top of the lineup. Surprisingly they look great offensively on the blueline.

BOS is starting to look maybe just kinda weak offensively. Their top-2 wingers are pretty much the only standout offense they have any more.

MTL doesn't really measure up to the other teams at all offensively. You might argue they have good winger depth but even that seems overstated.
 
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With all the roster changes I believe the Top 4 are interchangeable
I’ll believe Boston doesn’t make the playoffs when I see it.

Florida
Boston
Tampa
Toronto

Montreal
Ottawa
Detroit


Buffalo
 
If you get a chance listen to the Evolving Hockey podcast to get a feel for who they are.
 
Golden_Jet said:
ewww
Carolina to miss the playoffs
Not seeing it
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Yeah probably....though to be honest I'm not sure how much there is to love about that Canes team right now. Good, but not great.

But that PHI projection is surprising and I think PIT is probably in trouble too.
 
Golden_Jet said:
ewww
Carolina to miss the playoffs
Not seeing it
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I'd guess the goalie situation (regarding its ability to stay healthy) to be highly responsible for that ranking. Not sure about whether or not I'd ultimately agree. That definitely looks to be a competitive division. Tough to bet against NYI or Washington. Can't count out Pittsburgh either depending upon Malkin and Crosby. Philly's remade blueline could be good. I'm unsure about Jones backing up Hart though.
 
Ashdown2 said:
really seattle with 99 points .... ? ottawa tied for last ?

how is this calculated anyways.
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Leafs are always (in the Matthews era) top 2 in their division in those predictions. Often with the 3rd or 4th most points in the entire league.
 
Golden_Jet said:
That has nothing to do with the quote you posted.
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More of an indicator of the inaccuracies of how they are calculated. If the Leafs start to finish top 2 in their division on a regular basis, I'm all ears.

Until then, that guy puts in a tonne of work (presumably) and it's all bollocks.
 
All Mod Cons said:
If the Leafs start to finish top 2 in their division on a regular basis, I'm all ears. Until then, that guy puts in a tonne of work (presumably) and it's all bollocks.
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Leafs were first in their division last year, exactly as predicted, for the record. Your claim about older Leaf projections is incorrect, and his projection for our division this year seems extremely reasonable.
 
I don’t think VGK will get 105 points if that’s what that model is predicting.
 
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