Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Racer88]

I mean, it might mean we shouldn't trade them at age 23, at least.

Maybe not but someone dame well needs to hold them accountable for what was an awful choke job this year.
at minimum Dubas should have replaced the coach for the upcoming season with someone that has experience and an idea how to adjust when things aren’t going well 2 playoffs in a row.
Half a decade ago we all signed up for a total tank job and 5 years later we still haven’t made it past the first round. Dubas has made such a mess of the balance of this team it’s not even funny.
Unacceptable.
Rant over. Lol

 

[Racer88]

Depends on the return package.
If Tb wants Marner for Vas, I will do that deal right away.

I would trade him just for the cap relief and to be rid of his entitled selfish attitude

 

[Racer88]

Both teams were complete joke when Sakic and Yzerman started playing for them. They never had anyone like Marner, Willie, Reilly, and JT joining them in the 3rd year.
Didn’t the Nords drafted Three 1St overalls in a role after having Sakic?

I was trying to think of a nice way to say this but you did a great job.
Thx. Lol.
It also points out how just looking at a simple stat like age means nothing

 

[Racer88]

Anyway I better stop posting as I’m working myself into a lather thinking about this group undeserving of our support.

 

[Curt]

I would trade him just for the cap relief and to be rid of his entitled selfish attitude

Getting rid of his attitude would be amazing.

 

[Racer88]

Getting rid of his attitude would be amazing.

Yup but I’m not sure how that ever happens. Sometimes it will happen after they bounce from team to team for awhile

 

[notDatsyuk]

A lot of people seem to confuse bookmaker odds with the probability of winning. They ate usually fairly similar, but don't have to be.

The purpose of bookmaker odds is to get the wagered money as evenly distributed as possible. Lower odds just mean they expect, or are seeing, more money bet on that team.

For a very simple example, look at a two horse race, with horse A somewhat better than horse B. If the odds are even, more will be bet on A, and if A wins, the bookies lose. What they do is adjust the odds so that a $2 bet on A returns $2.40 while a $2 bet on B returns $4, thus encouraging people to bet on B. The ideal here is to have $1000 bet on A and $600 bet on B. No matter which horse wins, they pay out $1200 and pocket $400. (Not actual numbers, but picked for a simple illustration.) If more starts getting bet on either horse than the $1000:$600 ratio, the odds are adjusted. The object is to pay out the same amount regardless of the winner.

In the above example, B might be the faster horse, but if more money is bet on A, that's the 'favourite'.

If I went to Las Vegas and bet $10M on Montreal winning the Cup, the Vegas odds would suddenly show a much higher likelihood of their winning. Which has no bearing on their real chances.

 

[Stephen]

I get what you're saying but I also disagree. NYI came within one game if the finals, and if they get there they are probably favourites. The same goes for the 93 Leafs who Zeke likes to mock - they could easily have won the cup that year. Or look at this way, maybe you'd be saying the same thing about STL had they not won the cup but they did. Sometimes, teams that don't seem to have as much talent as some other teams just put it together at the right time and they win it all. It's also not easy at all to predict when it's going to happen. Like 93 for example, we didn't win but MTL did and were they considered to be a contender? The answer is no, isn't it? So it's all BS talk anyway, who's to say where to draw the line and say these teams are contenders and these teams aren't. Make the playoffs, get hot at the right time, maybe have a bit of luck as well and there a lot of teams who have shot at going all the way.

Anyhow, I just had a peek at the cup odds for the first time and there seems to be a clear top tier with 3 teams around +600. Then Toronto at +1000, CAR/BOS at +1400 and then we have NYI/MTL at +2000 followed by DAL at +2200. MTL makes me say that take all these numbers with a grain of salt but other than that they seem reasonable and would seem to indicate that TOR and NYI should both be considered contenders. On the other hand, we've been contenders for many years now and we all know, that doesn't really mean anything.

Well, I kind of think of the Islanders like the post-Kawhi Raptors as well. There are great teams that can get by on team chemistry and two way game for a while but without that true top end skill and that perfect mix, they can't get over the hump. They have Barzal, but not enough. Anyway, that's their problem not ours, we have other things to worry about in Leaf Land.

 

[Stephen]

I mean, it might mean we shouldn't trade them at age 23, at least.

I think the Leafs are in a bit of a dead end at the moment and I think there are merits and risks to whatever they choose to do, whether it's trying the same formula betting on the Big 4, going for the franchise changing blockbuster trade, taking a step back for a small retool or even cleaning house at the management level. With a flat cap there's no real right answer or path forward and so far the only thing we've seen committed to is to cautiously proceed with what we have. We'll see.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, I kind of think of the Islanders like the post-Kawhi Raptors as well. There are great teams that can get by on team chemistry and two way game for a while but without that true top end skill and that perfect mix, they can't get over the hump. They have Barzal, but not enough. Anyway, that's their problem not ours, we have other things to worry about in Leaf Land.

The post-Kawhi Raptors didn't get anywhere close to being one game away from a finals series in which they would have been the favourites.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think the Leafs are in a bit of a dead end at the moment and I think there are merits and risks to whatever they choose to do, whether it's trying the same formula betting on the Big 4, going for the franchise changing blockbuster trade, taking a step back for a small retool or even cleaning house at the management level. With a flat cap there's no real right answer or path forward and so far the only thing we've seen committed to is to cautiously proceed with what we have. We'll see.

Dubas won’t be the guy to make that franchise trade. Shanny won’t trust him. Even though that’s Dubas last bullet to save his job.
I think they are just betting on AM and Marner coming through in playoffs plus playing against TB in the first round.
Kind of like Pre Kawhi Raptors always losing to James and the Cavs. That way, people can’t get upset about losing in the first round.

 

[deprw]

Maybe not but someone dame well needs to hold them accountable for what was an awful choke job this year.
at minimum Dubas should have replaced the coach for the upcoming season with someone that has experience and an idea how to adjust when things aren’t going well 2 playoffs in a row.
Half a decade ago we all signed up for a total tank job and 5 years later we still haven’t made it past the first round. Dubas has made such a mess of the balance of this team it’s not even funny.
Unacceptable.
Rant over. Lol

We don't know about internal discussion. Only idiots throws his staff under the bus publicly, it's panic move and that's best way to alianate people. We don't know how entitled Marner is with the team, if he wants to dictate pp and how he reacts to feedback. Team cannot do anything about his contract, so it's not their problem and should be handled correctly. Keefe haven't had one single normal season under his belt, he came mid season during his first year, they had 4 month break mid season and then was this shortened covid season. He has succeeded lower levels and has proved that he can get us going during regular season.

This new division system pretty much screwed our grow up years. First year we played against Presidents trophy winner, which was okay. After that we were 5th and 7th and played agains higher seed in the playoffs. That isn't common in any league and didn't help our growing pains a bit. Our team should feel stagnated like we are, but you cannot linger on that now. It's what it is. I hope we get one normal season and then we can assess our situation better, if we have Rielly in long run and should we trade ie. Marner.

 

[Racer88]

We don't know about internal discussion. Only idiots throws his staff under the bus publicly, it's panic move and that's best way to alianate people. We don't know how entitled Marner is with the team, if he wants to dictate pp and how he reacts to feedback. Team cannot do anything about his contract, so it's not their problem and should be handled correctly. Keefe haven't had one single normal season under his belt, he came mid season during his first year, they had 4 month break mid season and then was this shortened covid season. He has succeeded lower levels and has proved that he can get us going during regular season.

This new division system pretty much screwed our grow up years. First year we played against Presidents trophy winner, which was okay. After that we were 5th and 7th and played agains higher seed in the playoffs. That isn't common in any league and didn't help our growing pains a bit. Our team should feel stagnated like we are, but you cannot linger on that now. It's what it is. I hope we get one normal season and then we can assess our situation better, if we have Rielly in long run and should we trade ie. Marner.

Fair enough

 

[zeke]

Both teams were complete joke when Sakic and Yzerman started playing for them. They never had anyone like Marner, Willie, Reilly, and JT joining them in the 3rd year.
Didn’t the Nords drafted Three 1St overalls in a row after having Sakic?

Eh. By the time Yzerman was 21 he had a team with Oates, Gallant, Klima, Chiasson, Probert, Burr.

By 23 Sakic had a team with Sundin, Stastny, Nolan, Ricci, Kamensky, Duschene, Foote, Leshchyhn, Hextall.

 

[Stephen]

The post-Kawhi Raptors didn't get anywhere close to being one game away from a finals series in which they would have been the favourites.

It's an example of how the chemistry and roster balance/depth is required to keep things going for a while, but eventually enough roster turnover spoils the mix. We saw that happen in the 90s with the Leafs and I think the Islanders experience a similar fate.

 

[Racer88]

Dubas won’t be the guy to make that franchise trade. Shanny won’t trust him. Even though that’s Dubas last bullet to save his job.
I think they are just betting on AM and Marner coming through in playoffs plus playing against TB in the first round.
Kind of like Pre Kawhi Raptors always losing to James and the Cavs. That way, people can’t get upset about losing in the first round.

I think Dubas’s last bullet is firing Keefe. If the Leafs struggle out of the gate Dubas will have to fire the coach and if that doesn’t work then Shanny will have to fire Dubas and if he doesn’t do that than MLSE needs to fire Shanny and all of them

 

[notDatsyuk]

It's an example of how the chemistry and roster balance/depth is required to keep things going for a while, but eventually enough roster turnover spoils the mix. We saw that happen in the 90s with the Leafs and I think the Islanders experience a similar fate.

Comparing their past two seasons to the Leafs' 92-93 and 93-94 playoff runs is certainly more accurate than the Raptors comparison, although in neither year did we lose to the eventual Cup champion.

But we did have a Matt Martin in '94!

We'll see if the same happens to them.

 

[zeke]

I think Dubas’s last bullet is firing Keefe. If the Leafs struggle out of the gate Dubas will have to fire the coach and if that doesn’t work then Shanny will have to fire Dubas and if he doesn’t do that than MLSE needs to fire Shanny and all of them

why do you think a coach with a 108pt pace career record is in danger of being fired, or that a team with a 108pt pace record under their coach will struggle out of the gate?

 

[DarkKnight]

I think Dubas’s last bullet is firing Keefe. If the Leafs struggle out of the gate Dubas will have to fire the coach and if that doesn’t work then Shanny will have to fire Dubas and if he doesn’t do that than MLSE needs to fire Shanny and all of them

He’s been out coached two playoffs in a row. He obviously hasn’t shown the ability to motivate them when it counts, despite coddling them like children. His in game tactics are pedestrian. Does he deserve to be fired? He hasn’t been an upgrade on Babcock so far, that’s for sure.

 

[Racer88]

why do you think a coach with a 108pt pace career record is in danger of being fired, or that a team with a 108pt pace record under their coach will struggle out of the gate?

Because we all watched his dismal performance in 2 playoffs especially this year. He had no idea what to do except throw M and M out time after time when they were being shut down. He has shown an inability to fix the PP even with the quality players he has to work with.
He has shown an reluctance to line match even when it was needed.
He was totally out coached the last 2 playoffs.
All that aside the question as bullets left in his gun and I think if they struggle that bullet will be the one he uses

 

[Racer88]

He’s been out coached two playoffs in a row. He obviously hasn’t shown the ability to motivate them when it counts, despite coddling them like children. His in game tactics are pedestrian. Does he deserve to be fired? He hasn’t been an upgrade on Babcock so far, that’s for sure.

I think if they struggle then there is a very good case for his firing but all that aside the question was bullets left in Dubas’s gun and I think that is the most likely move when your job is on the line

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Or Colorado in the second round. Am I doing it right?

No you’re not. Colorado won a round after YouTube and Facebook were a thing. Furthermore, they don’t collapse in intensely embarrassing fashion.

 

[zeke]

Because we all watched his dismal performance in 2 playoffs especially this year. He had no idea what to do except throw M and M out time after time when they were being shut down. He has shown an inability to fix the PP even with the quality players he has to work with.
He has shown an reluctance to line match even when it was needed.
He was totally out coached the last 2 playoffs.
All that aside the question as bullets left in his gun and I think if they struggle that bullet will be the one he uses

So you're looking at 12gms of playoffs rather than 103gms of regular season....to determine what will happen in the regular season?

 

[Racer88]

So you're looking at 12gms of playoffs rather than 103gms of regular season....to determine what will happen in the regular season?

Yes because that’s what really counts and when the pressure is on it’s what you really have as a coach.
They breezed thru the season when there was very little pressure and collapsed when it mattered including the coach.
However as I said my post was in response to a poster saying that trading one of the big 3 was Dubas’s last bullet in the gun. I however believe his last bullet will be the coach. It is easier the fire a coach then trade 11 million dollar players

 

[DarkKnight]

Imagine equating regular season games with playoff games.