Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[ponder]

+1 on Tampa, Toronto, Florida and Boston being a tossup. Tampa and Boston both got significantly worse, though they were the top 2 before that. Toronto got slightly worse, Florida got significantly better.

I think Tampa is likely still #1, but it’s closer than it used to be. And Toronto/Florida/Boston is real hard to call.

Don’t see Montreal being top 4 in this division, despite their SCF trip.

 

[The90]

16-17: 2.34gf60/2.41xgf60, 2.68ga60/2.43xga60 - pretty even
17-18: 2.90gf60/2.68xgf60, 3.91ga60/3.01xga60 - we were outplayed, but goaltending made it look worse
18-19: 2.37gf60/2.82xgf60, 3.35ga60/3.46xga60 - outplayed again, but lack of finish made it look worse
19-20: 1.86gf60/2.56xgf60, 2.14ga60/2.51xga60 - pretty even, but we couldn't finish at all
20-21: 2.49gf60/3.11xgf60, 1.98ga60/2.24xga60 - we dominated, but couldnt finish

Glad someone else put this together. Basically what I expected.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

This .
Remarkable the tears that have been shed over something so meaningless.
The insecurity of some is staggering.

I don't agree at all. The Leafs were definitely better defensively and that lasted right into the playoffs. The real problem was special teams (especially the PP). That was a brand new problem that has nothing to do with a surge under Keefe then reverting to old ways. It's entirely Keefe's fault for not addressing it but it was a very different problem than before.

 

[Racer88]

agreed. I personally like stats that get rid of as much of the noise as possible.

All Situations

16-17 (Babs): #2 xgf/60, #28 xga/60 ---> #11 sv%
17-18 (Babs): #1 xgf/60, #22 xga/60 ---> #4 sv%
18-19 (Babs): #2 xgf/60, #22 xga/60 ---> #10 sv%
19-20 (Babs 23gm): #18 xgf/60, #26 xga/60 --> #22 sv%
19-20 (Keefe 24gm): #2 xgf/60, #6 xga/60 --> #19 sv%
19-20 (Keefe 23gm): #6 xgf/60, #14 xga/60 --> #19 sv%
20-21 (Keefe): #3 xgf/60, #7xga/60 ---> #16 sv%

Personally I don't blame Babs for that #18th ranked offense nor that #22 ranked sv% in those 23gms to start the 19-20 season. I do blame him for the perennially awful defensive ranking every single year he was here though. Especially since those defensive rankings improved instantly, dramatically, and sustainably under a new coach - even in it's worst stretch, when Rielly, Muzzin, and Ceci all suffered longterm injuries and we had to use a Dermott-Holl top pairing, it was still above average.

And I think that sustained defensive improvement from awful to solid will serve us well going forward, even if it's been mostly hidden so far due to our starting goalie imploding.

Me too.
I like the most important stat of all……….wins and losses.

Try not
Do or do not
There is no try
-Yoda

 

[mydnyte]

Possibly the dumbest thing I often read on these boards is "that can not go in". Every goalie lets in bad goals but when people can't understand that simple fact, there's not much you can do to help them. Campbell was one of our best players in the playoffs, just like Andersen was the year before and how people think they're to blame because they weren't perfect boggles the mind.

'that can not go in', simply means, that was a shot he should have been able to save.
every goalie lets in their fair share of bad goals (some more, some less), but, when they blow a save, they can be called out on it also.
when its a giveaway in the slot, you dont fault the goalie no matter how weak the shot may seem

 

[Mess]

The major factor on how the Leafs finish in the Atlantic standings will come down to how 2 previous NHL backup goalies who have never played in enough volume of games to be considered #1 and starters will perform as a tandem with a nightly guessing game as to who will be in net, and likely going with the hot hand at that time.

 

[ToneDog]

The major factor on how the Leafs finish in the Atlantic standings will come down to how 2 previous NHL backup goalies who have never played in enough volume of games to be considered #1 and starters will perform as a tandem with a nightly guessing game as to who will be in net, and likely going with the hot hand at that time.

Are both injury prone as well ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

The major factor on how the Leafs finish in the Atlantic standings will come down to how 2 previous NHL backup goalies who have never played in enough volume of games to be considered #1 and starters will perform

Mrazek has been a starter, for the record, and both Boston and Florida have even bigger question marks in net.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Mrazek has been a starter, for the record, both Boston and Florida have even bigger question marks in net.

Maybe Florida not Boston, they have Rask coming back after he’s recovered, and Ullmark and Swayman to get them through until Rask is back.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe Florida not Boston, they have Rask coming back after he’s recovered, and Ullmark and Swayman to get them through until Rask is back.

Rask is projected to be out until January or February, and is currently a UFA. Even if he signs with Boston, there are question marks for a soon-to-be 35 year old goalie coming off hip surgery. Ullmark is no more proven as a starter, and Swayman is a 22-year old rookie with 10 games of NHL experience.

 

[Mess]

Mrazek has been a starter, for the record, and both Boston and Florida have even bigger question marks in net.

Its been over 5 years since he appear in 50 games, and only played in a backup or tandem role for a long time.

Petr Mrazek Stats

Regular Season | Postseason

REGULAR SEASON STATS
SEASON	TEAM	GP	GS	TOI/G	W	L	T	OTL	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
'12-'13	DET	2	2	59:35	1	1	--	0	4	2.01	51	47	.922	0
'13-'14	DET	9	6	49:51	2	4	--	0	13	1.74	178	165	.927	2
'14-'15	DET .	29	26	54:39	16	9	--	2	63	2.38	768	705	.918	3
'15-'16	DET	54	49	54:50	27	16	--	6	115	2.33	1448	1333	.921	4
'16-'17	DET	50	44	57:09	18	21	--	9	145	3.04	1462	1317	.901	1
'17-'18	DET	22	18	53:48	8	7	--	3	57	2.89	630	573	.910	3
'17-'18	PHI	17	15	53:43	6	6	--	3	49	3.22	450	401	.891	1
'18-'19	CAR	40	40	59:40	23	14	--	3	95	2.39	1104	1009	.914	4
'19-'20	CAR	40	38	58:01	21	16	--	2	104	2.69	1091	987	.905	3
'20-'21	CAR	12	12	55:55	6	2	--	3	23	2.06	298	275	.923	3
Career	275	250	--	128	96	0	31	668	2.59	7480	6812	.911	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ACC1224]

The goalies should be good enough to not be an issue during the regular season.

That and especially coaching is still an area the team lags behind the rest of the division contenders though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Its been over 5 years since he appear in 50 games.

It has not been over 5 years, and he played the majority of his team's games as recently as 2019-2020. Not only did you incorrectly call them backup goalies, you incorrectly claimed that they had never played in enough games to be a starter. All while conveniently leaving out the bigger question marks that exist in goal for our divisional competition.

 

[ACC1224]

Its been over 5 years since he appear in 50 games, and only played in a backup or tandem role for a long time.

Petr Mrazek Stats

Regular Season | Postseason

REGULAR SEASON STATS
SEASON	TEAM	GP	GS	TOI/G	W	L	T	OTL	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
'12-'13	DET	2	2	59:35	1	1	--	0	4	2.01	51	47	.922	0
'13-'14	DET	9	6	49:51	2	4	--	0	13	1.74	178	165	.927	2
'14-'15	DET .	29	26	54:39	16	9	--	2	63	2.38	768	705	.918	3
'15-'16	DET	54	49	54:50	27	16	--	6	115	2.33	1448	1333	.921	4
'16-'17	DET	50	44	57:09	18	21	--	9	145	3.04	1462	1317	.901	1
'17-'18	DET	22	18	53:48	8	7	--	3	57	2.89	630	573	.910	3
'17-'18	PHI	17	15	53:43	6	6	--	3	49	3.22	450	401	.891	1
'18-'19	CAR	40	40	59:40	23	14	--	3	95	2.39	1104	1009	.914	4
'19-'20	CAR	40	38	58:01	21	16	--	2	104	2.69	1091	987	.905	3
'20-'21	CAR	12	12	55:55	6	2	--	3	23	2.06	298	275	.923	3
Career	275	250	--	128	96	0	31	668	2.59	7480	6812	.911	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah I don't think anyone considers either of them legit starters.
Platoon should work ok though.

 

[Mess]

The goalies should be good enough to not be an issue during the regular season.

That and especially coaching is still an area the team lags behind the rest of the division contenders though.

There is a saying if you think you have 2 starters you really have none. We have been spoiled with Andersen over the years knowing he was good for 65 games and it was only the backup that was a concern playing 15 or so games.

Going to be interesting to see how Leafs goalies are deployed and how that will impact the regular season standings. A platoon can work as other teams have successfully done it, but it does rely of more decisions being made to get the right goalie in the net at the right time.

But I agree when you compare Leafs goaltending and coaching, against the opposition and the strong contenders there are lots of question marks.. Its really only Leaf offense that one can feel secure about, and in the regular season we usually outscore our mistakes enough to be competitive on a nightly basis.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It has not been over 5 years, and he played the majority of his team's games as recently as 2019-2020. Not only did you incorrectly call them backup goalies, you incorrectly claimed that they had never played in enough games to be a starter. All while conveniently leaving out the bigger question marks that exist in goal for our divisional competition.

Looking at the stats it is over 5 years, highest he’s played in last 5 years is 40 games.

 

[Blowfish]

The bottom 6 continues to be a concern with age and meh cast offs players added all due to 2 overpaid players.

Aging top 4 D and lack of depth.

Goaltending is average.

Matthew's health to start the year after surgery.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There is a saying if you think you have 2 starters you really have none.

Nobody said we have two starters. We just also don't have two "backups", like you incorrectly stated. It's a tandem.

We have been spoiled with Andersen over the years knowing he was good for 65 games

Andersen hasn't played 65 games since 2017-2018, and Andersen was one of the weaker parts of our team for the past couple years.

A platoon can work as other teams have successfully done it, but it does rely of more decisions being made to get the right goalie in the net at the right time.

It really just means going with the hot hand, which is what teams should be doing anyway.

But I agree when you compare Leafs goaltending and coaching, against the opposition and the strong contenders there are lots of question marks. Its really only Leaf offense that one can feel secure about

We are solid offensively and defensively, and are just as secure in goal going into the season as all of the contenders in the division other than Tampa.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Looking at the stats it is over 5 years

2016-2017 season is within the last 5 years.

 

[egd27]

Looking at the stats it is over 5 years, highest he’s played in last 5 years is 40 games.

It's the semantics game the poster loves to play. The 40 games was a majority since the season was shortened to 70 game,

 

[Golden_Jet]

2016-2017 season is within the last 5 years.

my bad , didn’t notice one year was split into 2 teams. So ya played 5 years ago.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's the semantics game the poster loves to play. The 40 games was a majority since the season was shortened to 70 game,

Actually, while he did also play a majority of games in 2019-2020, that season wasn't even counted in the discussion you're quoting.

 

[Mess]

Looking at the stats it is over 5 years, highest he’s played in last 5 years is 40 games.

The last time he played over 40 games was 2016-17 when he appeared in 50 games and he only won 18 of those games with a 3.04 GAA and .901 sv% and that is anything but starting goalie stats, and that is a pace of 30 wins if he played all 82 games and that isn't getting you anywhere near the playoffs.

Mrazek runs very hot and cold over checkered past so timing is going to be everything here. Campbell only has 78 career NHL regular season games to his name over 7 seasons so he has never carried a starter load either.. Run with the hot goalie or flip a coin and take your chances on a nightly basis.

We were spoiled in the past when we had proven starter like Belfour or Cujo in net or even Freddy in the recent past, where you don't enter a season with high expectations but now have more questions then answers in net with a platoon tandem strategy trying to turn 2 backups into 1 starter like numbers.

It might be good enough to get you into the playoffs, so lets cross our fingers and hope for the best.

 

[egd27]

Actually, while he did also play a majority of games in 2019-2020, that season wasn't even counted in the discussion you're quoting.

Your point being?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Your point being?

That my statement being correct had nothing to do with the reasoning you suggested.