Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed 100% but when a goalie makes a big mistake the puck usually ends up in his net. Not the case for skaters.

And that's why people are 100 times more likely to remember their mistakes which leads to them being unfairly criticized.

 

[Tarmore]

It's hilarious to see Keefe's 116-point pace over 24 games dismissed as just a "brief surge" that was somehow a given, and our 113 point pace over 56 games (notably similar to said "brief surge"...) dismissed altogether due to baseless claims about our division, but the worst cherry-picked 23-game stretch of Keefe's tenure from 2 years ago (that was still an 11 point pace increase on Babcock's stretch, and featured much stronger underlying metrics), that just so happened to directly coincide with the team getting decimated by injury and our starting goalie imploding, is somehow being used to downplay the team going into 2021-2022.

I think you summed it up pretty well there.

 

[ACC1224]

Campbell performed well above his paygrade but that goal simply cannot go in. He, most goalies, Keefe, his teammates, Dubas. Shanny, and most of the hockey community will agree IMO.

This. That goal was a backbreaker.

Looks like Zeke has taken yet another thread off topic.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This. That goal was a backbreaker.

Looks like Zeke has taken yet another thread off topic.

If the players give up in game 7, after one bad goal let in by a goalie who's play has been stellar and didn't let in one single bad goal through the first 6 games, then the players are a pathetic bunch of losers and will never win anything no matter who's playing in net.

 

[Ashdown2]

It is not all about points. Bergeron is elite no matter how much he makes. Our only hope is that father time catches up to him. Tavares is elite but not Bergeron elite. Not many are.

there is a difference ween calling players elite or placing them in whichever categories you may havein your brain, it doesnt matter.
i was responding to someone who "thinks" tavaes is washed up and regressing. which is 100% a contract bias

 

[zeke]

Well, what I’m getting at is we have 2 off seasons and a very successful pandemic shortened regular season between the split Babcock/Keefe year, so whatever noise or lack of clarity we had with the 2019-20 year is somewhat outdated and irrelevant to the upcoming season. Especially when so much of that team is no longer here.

agreed. I personally like stats that get rid of as much of the noise as possible.

All Situations

16-17 (Babs): #2 xgf/60, #28 xga/60 ---> #11 sv%
17-18 (Babs): #1 xgf/60, #22 xga/60 ---> #4 sv%
18-19 (Babs): #2 xgf/60, #22 xga/60 ---> #10 sv%
19-20 (Babs 23gm): #18 xgf/60, #26 xga/60 --> #22 sv%
19-20 (Keefe 24gm): #2 xgf/60, #6 xga/60 --> #19 sv%
19-20 (Keefe 23gm): #6 xgf/60, #14 xga/60 --> #19 sv%
20-21 (Keefe): #3 xgf/60, #7xga/60 ---> #16 sv%

Personally I don't blame Babs for that #18th ranked offense nor that #22 ranked sv% in those 23gms to start the 19-20 season. I do blame him for the perennially awful defensive ranking every single year he was here though. Especially since those defensive rankings improved instantly, dramatically, and sustainably under a new coach - even in it's worst stretch, when Rielly, Muzzin, and Ceci all suffered longterm injuries and we had to use a Dermott-Holl top pairing, it was still above average.

And I think that sustained defensive improvement from awful to solid will serve us well going forward, even if it's been mostly hidden so far due to our starting goalie imploding.

 

[Racer88]

so what else is new ?

-blew a 4-1 lead to the B's in the third
-shit the bed against a weak Jackets team last year
-one of only 2 teams who haven't won a series in the cap era

i have no problem ripping on players but singling out one player for most of the criticism while making excuses for others is absurd

Willy played up to his contract, Tavares was injured so that leaves Marne and Matthews. I agree that Matthews deserves much blame as well, but Marner was presented to us as, golly gee, awe shucks home town boy who’s dream was to play with the Leafs. For the first few years that was the case……fast forward to RFA time. He did some nasty negotiations in the media he held to his greedy stance until Dubas finally gave in (I blame Dubas for this situation as well).
Marner plays good in the regular season but totally goes unproductive when it matters in the playoffs.
2 years in a row he has come and said that he wasn’t ready to start or engaged to start a playoff game………this is awful for a player that held the team ransom for 11 million per year contract.
The final straw for me was this year when he said he was not going to do anything different to prepare for this year’s playoffs. It was obvious he cannot handle the style of post season game or the pressure.
He is certainly not worth anything close to 11 million.
These are some of the reasons that realistic fans are hard on him.
All that said I don’t think he deserves personal attacks but as an 11 million dollar player in arguably the biggest hockey market he deserve all the anger the fans are throwing

 

[Racer88]

agreed. I personally like stats that get rid of as much of the noise as possible.

All Situations

16-17 (Babs): #2 xgf/60, #28 xga/60 ---> #11 sv%
17-18 (Babs): #1 xgf/60, #22 xga/60 ---> #4 sv%
18-19 (Babs): #2 xgf/60, #22 xga/60 ---> #10 sv%
19-20 (Babs 23gm): #18 xgf/60, #26 xga/60 --> #22 sv%
19-20 (Keefe 24gm): #2 xgf/60, #6 xga/60 --> #19 sv%
19-20 (Keefe 23gm): #6 xgf/60, #14 xga/60 --> #19 sv%
20-21 (Keefe): #3 xgf/60, #7xga/60 ---> #16 sv%

Personally I don't blame Babs for that #18th ranked offense nor that #22 ranked sv% in those 23gms to start the 19-20 season. I do blame him for the perennially awful defensive ranking every single year he was here though. Especially since those defensive rankings improved instantly, dramatically, and sustainably under a new coach - even in it's worst stretch, when Rielly, Muzzin, and Ceci all suffered longterm injuries and we had to use a Dermott-Holl top pairing, it was still above average.

And I think that sustained defensive improvement from awful to solid will serve us well going forward, even if it's been mostly hidden so far due to our starting goalie imploding.

Sorry man but my eyes glaze over and I retreat to my happy place when I see a wall of numbers like that.

 

[zeke]

Sorry man but my eyes glaze over and I retreat to my happy place when I see a wall of numbers like that.

Lemme tell you - all of us remain absolutely RIVETED when all of you guys post "BUT THEY LOST IN PLAYOFF!!!!" in every page of every thread on the board.

 

[Racer88]

Lemme tell you - all of us remain absolutely RIVETED when all of you guys post "BUT THEY LOST IN PLAYOFF!!!!" in every page of every thread on the board.

I knew it………..lol

 

[bbgobie]

Sorry man but my eyes glaze over and I retreat to my happy place when I see a wall of numbers like that.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Stretch[/TD][TD]xGF/60 Ranking[/TD][TD]xGA/60[/TD][TD]SV%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]16-17 (Babs)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD][TD]11[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]17-18 (Babs)[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD][TD]22[/TD][TD]4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]18-19 (Babs)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD][TD]22[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19-20 (Babs 23gm)[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD][TD]22[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19-20 (Keefe 24gm)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD][TD]19[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19-20 (Keefe 23gm)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD][TD]19[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]20-21 (Keefe)[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]16[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

Put those numbers in a table.
I don't want to take words out of someone who produced the data, but I'd say he's arguing that Babs teams continually had bad xGA/60 despite good SV%. With Keefe and worse SV% (For whatever reason) the xGA/60 is a lot better.
We've also been able to maintain similar offense.

 

[Racer88]

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Stretch[/TD][TD]xGF/60 Ranking[/TD][TD]xGA/60[/TD][TD]SV%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]16-17 (Babs)[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]28[/TD][TD]11[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]17-18 (Babs)[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]22[/TD][TD]4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]18-19 (Babs)[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]22[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19-20 (Babs 23gm)[/TD][TD]18[/TD][TD]26[/TD][TD]22[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19-20 (Keefe 24gm)[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]19[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]19-20 (Keefe 23gm)[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]14[/TD][TD]19[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]20-21 (Keefe)[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]16[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Put those numbers in a table.
I don't want to take words out of someone who produced the data, but I'd say he's arguing that Babs teams continually had bad xGA/60 despite good SV%. With Keefe and worse SV% (For whatever reason) the xGA/60 is a lot better.
We've also been able to maintain similar offense.

It would be interesting to see what these numbers would be based on the last 2 playoff rounds

 

[The90]

It would be interesting to see what these numbers would be based on the last 2 playoff rounds

Going to assume the advanced stats would be very favourable for both series. I however, am too lazy to look them up.

 

[therealkoho]

1. Tampa
2. Florida

3. Toronto
4. Boston
5. Ottawa
6. Montreal

7. Detroit
8. Buffalo

this is pretty much how I see it, Tampa and Florida have what should be the strongest goaltending in the league, the Leafs have possibly the best offense in the entire league(as long as the PP shows up) which will/should keep them ahead of the B's

Ottawa is actually a little scary, they can just keep on coming at you with all 4 lines and a team that is committed to defending, my guess is they dominate the Canadiens in their season series and earn a split with the Leafs

 

[VanW27]

this is pretty much how I see it, Tampa and Florida have what should be the strongest goaltending in the league, the Leafs have possibly the best offense in the entire league(as long as the PP shows up) which will/should keep them ahead of the B's

Ottawa is actually a little scary, they can just keep on coming at you with all 4 lines and a team that is committed to defending, my guess is they dominate the Canadiens in their season series and earn a split with the Leafs

Save % leaders of all goalies who played at least 20 games the last 2 seasons (72 qualified goalies):

#1 - Chris Driedger, .931 - Former Panther now Kraken
#56 - Sergei Bobrovksy, .902 - Current Panther Starter

Knight looks good but unproven, goaltending could be good, but could also be terrible for the Panthers.

 

[Racer88]

Going to assume the advanced stats would be very favourable for both series. I however, am too lazy to look them up.

If they were favourable that is more proof that the advanced stats are not worth much……….we lost

 

[The90]

If they were favourable that is more proof that the advanced stats are not worth much……….we lost

Lol. Or that it’s possible to play better than the other team and lose. Same as it’s possible to play terribly and win.

 

[Racer88]

Lol. Or that it’s possible to play better than the other team and lose. Same as it’s possible to play terribly and win.

Of course, but when it becomes 5 years in a row…….I’m guessing the fancy stats do not mean what you think they mean

 

[The90]

Of course, but when it becomes 5 years in a row…….I’m guessing the fancy stats do not mean what you think they mean

Pretty sure I have a good grasp of what stats mean. Double that with a solid grasp of hockey, and I’ll trust my eyes. Thanks for the tip though.

 

[Racer88]

Pretty sure I have a good grasp of what stats mean. Double that with a solid grasp of hockey, and I’ll trust my eyes. Thanks for the tip though.

Anything fellow Leaf fan

 

[zeke]

It would be interesting to see what these numbers would be based on the last 2 playoff rounds

16-17: 2.34gf60/2.41xgf60, 2.68ga60/2.43xga60 - pretty even
17-18: 2.90gf60/2.68xgf60, 3.91ga60/3.01xga60 - we were outplayed, but goaltending made it look worse
18-19: 2.37gf60/2.82xgf60, 3.35ga60/3.46xga60 - outplayed again, but lack of finish made it look worse
19-20: 1.86gf60/2.56xgf60, 2.14ga60/2.51xga60 - pretty even, but we couldn't finish at all
20-21: 2.49gf60/3.11xgf60, 1.98ga60/2.24xga60 - we dominated, but couldnt finish

 

[Menzinger]

It is not all about points. Bergeron is elite no matter how much he makes. Our only hope is that father time catches up to him. Tavares is elite but not Bergeron elite. Not many are.

He's already being sheltered pretty heavily by the Bruins.

The guy is getting like 60ish % offensive zone starts. Quite the change from a guy who earned his reputation for his defensive ability.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

He's already being sheltered pretty heavily by the Bruins.

The guy is getting like 60ish % offensive zone starts. Quite the change from a guy who earned his reputation for his defensive ability.

Crazy that's it's been this way for 5 seasons now but people still laud his defensive ability.

Great player but he get's the same offensive usage as most of the big guns in the league now.

 

[zeke]

He's already being sheltered pretty heavily by the Bruins.

The guy is getting like 60ish % offensive zone starts. Quite the change from a guy who earned his reputation for his defensive ability.

Not just that - Bergeron's time at even strength has been limited, period.

Last year, even strength:

Krejci 14:33
Bergeron 13:06
Coyle 13:02
Kuraly 12:08

 

[makbeer]

And goaltending was not a problem in the playoffs.

It was in the last 3 games and in game 7.

Jack would agree with me.