Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Mess]

And some fans are putting a lot of effort into completely ignoring an entire season, and the most recent and representative sample we have, because it doesn't suit their argument.

If you believe playing only 6 of the 30 NHL teams, and playing them 9 or 10 times each is an accurate data sample set for yourself to accurately attempt to project the 2021-22 Eastern Conference and Atlantic Div standings for Divisions that no longer even exist then have at it.

I know beating Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg and Edmonton 5-6 times each out of 9 to 10 games played last year will have little impact on how Leafs will rank against TB and Boston in the Atlantic this year, so I'm using a different sample set of data that actually involves the teams I'm projecting against. 1 X time anomalies that happen once every 100 years are generally tossed out and ignored to get a more accurate assessment, as the NHL has tossed then out as well as one and done.

Boston had 100 points in 70 games and TB had 92 points in 70 games compared to our Leafs who had 81 and so we were -19 and -11 points back in the Atlantic standings when things were as they are again today. Boston were the President trophy team at that time, and TB is now back to back Cup winners and that is our competition for Div standings in East. Now factoring the roster and player personnel changes to those teams in direct competition to our Leafs is where I'm beginning from.

 

[Dreakmur]

Alternatively, Toronto played 63 regular season and play-off games, and didn't play a single game against a bottom-7 team. They then outplayed and outscored, but ultimately lost in 7 to the Cup finalist in the playoffs, while missing a massive piece of their roster. Boston played 16 games against the worst and 3rd worst teams in the league, and lost to the Conference finalist in the playoffs.

I'm glad you have finally learned that you can take the exact same information and tell a completely different story using the "facts".

 

[Dekes For Days]

So is what you’re peddling.

I'm not peddling anything. I'm just not excluding the most recent and representative data we have to suit an argument.

If you believe playing only 6 of the 30 NHL teams, and playing them 9 or 10 times each is an accurate data sample set for yourself to accurately attempt to project the 2021-22 Eastern Conference and Atlantic Div standings for Divisions that no longer even exist then have at it.

If you think what happened 2-3 years ago with different rosters at different ages/development points with a different coach is an accurate data sample set for yourself to accurately attempt to project the 2021-2022 Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division standings, then I recommend rethinking that, and using a more recent and representative sample.

as the NHL has tossed then out as well as one and done.

Uh, no, the NHL very much acknowledges the 2020-2021 season occurred, and is just as valid as any other season.

I'm glad you have finally learned that you can take the exact same information and tell a completely different story using the "facts".

Well, ideally, we'd be using all of the information, not just favourable or unfavourable, but I'm glad the point got across.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

If you believe playing only 6 of the 30 NHL teams, and playing them 9 or 10 times each is an accurate data sample set for yourself to accurately attempt to project the 2021-22 Eastern Conference and Atlantic Div standings for Divisions that no longer even exist then have at it.

I know beating Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg and Edmonton 5-6 times each out of 9 to 10 games played last year will have little impact on how Leafs will rank against TB and Boston in the Atlantic this year, so I'm using a different sample set of data that actually involves the teams I'm projecting against. 1 X time anomalies that happen once every 100 years are generally tossed out and ignored to get a more accurate assessment, as the NHL has tossed then out as well as one and done.

Boston had 100 points in 70 games and TB had 92 points in 70 games compared to our Leafs who had 81 and so we were -19 and -11 points back in the Atlantic standings when things were as they are again today. Boston were the President trophy team at that time, and TB is now back to back Cup winners and that is our competition for Div standings in East. Now factoring the roster and player personnel changes to those teams in direct competition to our Leafs is where I'm beginning from.

Hmmm...I've always thought the North Division was a disadvantage to the Leafs since teams have a way better ability to learn and adapt to their game. The number of times we've seen Matthews catch players off guard when they haven't seen him in a while is my best evidence. Marner too. Their skillsets are deceptive. I don't see how playing the rest of the league hurts in that regard. I said the same when people tried to put an asterisk beside Matthews' Rocket trophy.

 

[Dreakmur]

If you believe playing only 6 of the 30 NHL teams, and playing them 9 or 10 times each is an accurate data sample set for yourself to accurately attempt to project the 2021-22 Eastern Conference and Atlantic Div standings for Divisions that no longer even exist then have at it.

I know beating Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg and Edmonton 5-6 times each out of 9 to 10 games played last year will have little impact on how Leafs will rank against TB and Boston in the Atlantic this year, so I'm using a different sample set of data that actually involves the teams I'm projecting against. 1 X time anomalies that happen once every 100 years are generally tossed out and ignored to get a more accurate assessment, as the NHL has tossed then out as well as one and done.

Boston had 100 points in 70 games and TB had 92 points in 70 games compared to our Leafs who had 81 and so we were -19 and -11 points back in the Atlantic standings when things were as they are again today. Boston were the President trophy team at that time, and TB is now back to back Cup winners and that is our competition for Div standings in East. Now factoring the roster and player personnel changes to those teams in direct competition to our Leafs is where I'm beginning from.

Average team ranking from 2020:
North - 18.86
West - 17.5
East - 15.0
Central - 12.375

 

[ACC1224]

So is what you’re peddling.

There is always going to be one or two on an island. Good for a laugh.

 

[DarkKnight]

There is always going to be one or two on an island. Good for a laugh.

Say hi to Robidas.

 

[weems]

We'll most likely rip up the regular season. I fully expect the core 4 to start the season strong because there's a ton of pressure on them to get this done right now or this entire setup is about to be blown up.

Tampa should be pretty tired going back to back while losing some valuable depth.
Boston is gettting older and lost some key players.
Florida is a quality team but I think we're better.

No disrespect to the other teams but they shouldnt be much of a threat.

The problem will happen when the playoffs start and this occurs.

Game 1 - Slash, Crosscheck, Hit, Interfere, Scrum/facewash
Game 2 - Slash, Crosscheck, Hit, Interfere, Scrum/facewash
Game 3 - Slash, Crosscheck, Hit, Interfere, Scrum/facewash

Rinse and repeat for games 4-7 while the refs put the whistle away.

I'm just not sold on this core being physically or mentally willing to go through that grind game in game out in the playoffs. If you somehow do get past round 1, the same thing will happen in round two only now you're playing at around 65-70% capablities after the toll of round one. You somehow win round two and round three will be the same only now you're playing at around 50%. This is why by the time teams reach the finals, they're so worn down that the hockey played isnt actually all that great and its basically a battle of will and who wants it more.

I hope to be proven wrong but the playoffs is an entirely different game of hockey and this core hasnt exactly instilled much confidence that they'll be able to win 4 rounds of physical hockey.

 

[Dreakmur]

We'll most likely rip up the regular season. I fully expect the core 4 to start the season strong because there's a ton of pressure on them to get this done right now or this entire setup is about to be blown up.

They don't exactly perform well under pressure.

 

[Racer88]

I don't think there ever was a version but as people have said many times, that was the market. Let's be honest, this was inevitable (a slow decline). That was the give and take of signing a premier UFA to a long term deal. Only 4 more years!

Yup, your not wrong……..

 

[Racer88]

Not even close, a nothing regular season game vs an absolutely gutless playoff choke job is hardly analogous.

Come on man…….it was a freaking Zamboni driver. That was a harbinger of things to come, buy ya the playoffs was the winner in humiliating events.
The sad part is we have more then one to chose from.

 

[Gabriel426]

Agreed.

However this Bruins team is just 1 weird pandemic season of last year removed from the President's trophy winners when they put up 100 points in only 70 games in 2019-20. Our Leafs had 81 points in 70 games in comparison before that season ended with Leafs a distant 3rd in the Div behind the Bruins when the lights went out on that season. When we were in the Atlantic last that was a +19 point gap in favour of the Bruins in the standings after only 70 games played.

Bruins GM Don Sweeney was voted by his peers as the NHL's General Manager of the Year in 2018-19 as the club compiled the third-best record in the NHL with 107 points and advanced to the Stanley Cup Final, and and as mentioned the club won the President's Trophy with the league's best record in 2019-20. The team's five-year record with Sweeney at the helm is 229-120-49 for a .637 win percentage, which ranks third in the NHL over that span

I just don't see anything to suggest that our Leafs have closed that gap. IMO

The fact the Bruins entire Perfection Line consumes only $19.5 mil for 3 highly productive players will always give them a great advantage when building around them. If add in newly signed Hall for $6 mil AAV that makes their top 4 forwards = $25.5 mil compared to Leafs core 4 of $40.5 mil which gives them +$15 mil extra cap when team building. particularly if those 4 players each offset at par statistically.

I can't help but think our Leafs gave up our 1st round pick + 2 others for Nick Foligno and now Boston is the benefactor signing him for $3.8 mil which we couldn't afford and then we snapped up Bruins non qualified players in Ritchie and Kase that they tossed away, by cutting from the bottom of their roster and using similar cap space on them. That seems like a move that would widen the gap as opposed to closing it.

Injuries are apart of the game and happen to anyone but those can't be predicted nor factored in to the equation, other than having organizational depth to survive and absorb them.. However that said picture a Leafs Dcore if Reilly or Muzzin would miss significant time, leaving us Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, Menell and one of the top 2 and tell me if that looks like a playoff team defense?

Same can be said about Bergeron getting injured. If he is down, how would that look for the Bruins.

What’s done is done in the past, losing picks for about 20 games of Foligno should not have any impacts of the Leafs performance this year unless the Leafs would have drafted an impact player in those spots-which I highly doubt. Yes, it stinks to lose Foligno but that’s the risk of going for it.

As for records, I really think judging two years ago records is fruitless bc pretty all the teams went through a few changes.

Like I said, I don’t think Leafs and Bruins are that far off in the regualr seasons as both teams got a few question marks. Playoff, that’s another story.

 

[kevsh]

Tampa Bay
Florida
Toronto
Boston
Montreal
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

TB suffered some losses but Kuch, Point, Hedman & The Michelin Man in net for a full season is enough to put them at the top.

Florida is the wild card as some expect them to take a step back. Perhaps, but I still think a better bet than a Toronto team that did not improve in the off-season (so far) and with question marks in net (can Campbell hold up for a full season as starter? Is Mrazek good enough if not?)

Boston is fading. Slowly, but fading. A full season without Weber will be a real challenge for the Habs. Ottawa taking baby steps forward. Same with Detroit. Regardless of how the Eichel soap opera plays out, Buffalo likely wins the first overall pick again.

 

[zeke]

As I said in the last post, if you still can't figure it out, ask a someone for help.
Maybe @Gary Nylund could assist?

I've asked others. Maybe you could try actually answering first tho?

 

[zeke]

Game 46, 8-4 loss to Florida
Game 47, 7-4 win over New Jersey

It’s obvious to the WHY, it’s a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 split, and it doesn’t even really matter on order, not sure why you’re so hung up on this the last few days.

But the numbers above are posted if you want to do 23-23-24, or do just all 23’s, if you want them all to be even.

So if i'm following - you're saying that there is no reason to use 23-24-23 over 23-23-24?

 

[zeke]

At center bruins have Coyle to replace Krejci and a young promising Studnicka... plus newbies Haula, and Nosek. They are stronger down the middle versus the leafs. Yes Matthews is younger but would you take playoff Bergeron or Matthews the next 2 years of the Matthews contract. Remember, Bergeron was runner up for Selke (Florida's Barkov) in 2021.

Charlie Coyle had 16pts last year. And he was already there last year. Weird to suggest he could somehow replace Krejci.


And hilarious to suggest Bergeron-Coyle-Haula-Nosek is better than Matthews-Tavares-Kerfoot-Kampf.

 

[zeke]

I think Boston biggest new impact player is going to be Taylor Hall who put up 8-6-14 points in 16 games after they acquired him & 3-2-5 points in the playoffs.

5pts in 11gms is good now?

 

[DarkKnight]

Come on man…….it was a freaking Zamboni driver. That was a harbinger of things to come, buy ya the playoffs was the winner in humiliating events.
The sad part is we have more then one to chose from.

Yes, there is a cornucopia of failure to choose from. I’ll give you Zamboni driver as our regular season low. Playoffs, so many recent examples.

 

[zeke]

The issue with JT is his skating peaked at average. As he ages that is going to get worse.

This is purely anecdotal and i may be totally wrong, but it feels like players who can skate tend to have long careers because even as they age they can still keep up.

JT was the 10th highest scoring full time center last year.

Outscored most #1 centers, including Bergeron.

 

[zeke]

Very good point and as the Leafs have made no real improvements in personal we are going to be in tough to make the playoffs

The Leafs replaced the one player that hurt them most last year, actually.

 

[hotpaws]

JT was the 10th highest scoring full time center last year.

Outscored most #1 centers, including Bergeron.

how many centers did you disqualify for playing 1 shift at wing ?

 

[zeke]

how many centers did you disqualify for playing 1 shift at wing ?

None. But there was one disqualified for playing half his shifts on the wing.

 

[Racer88]

Yes, there is a cornucopia of failure to choose from. I’ll give you Zamboni driver as our regular season low. Playoffs, so many recent examples.

Fair enough…..lol

 

[Racer88]

The Leafs replaced the one player that hurt them most last year, actually.

Hopefully with someone better….but we don’t really know yet

 

[Stephen]

The issue with JT is his skating peaked at average. As he ages that is going to get worse.

This is purely anecdotal and i may be totally wrong, but it feels like players who can skate tend to have long careers because even as they age they can still keep up.

I don't really like JT's game last year for vast stretches. He couldn't get a lot of separation speed going and looked like he was getting swarmed whenever he had the puck resulting in a lot of disjointed, momentum killing plays on his stick. Had a lot of issues with extension on his skating stride so it wasn't clear if he was nursing something like an abdominal issue or if he was slowing down.

Then he found his game and looked a lot better down the stretch and his earlier struggles were explained as being challenged to make a commitment to defense. He also missed most of the playoff series, so it feels like the whole conversation and outlook around him is generally positive entering 2021-22, but we will see.