Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Dekes For Days]

However this Bruins team is just 1 weird pandemic season of last year removed from the President's trophy winners when they put up 100 points in only 70 games in 2019-20. Our Leafs had 81 points in 70 games in comparison before that season ended with Leafs a distant 3rd in the Div behind the Bruins when the lights went out on that season.

Bruins GM Don Sweeney was voted by his peers as the NHL's General Manager of the Year in 2018-19 as the club compiled the third-best record in the NHL with 107 points and advanced to the Stanley Cup Final

And even more recently than 2 and 3 years ago, the Bruins placed 10th in the league and 3rd in their division, while Toronto placed 6th in the league and 1st in their division.

The team's five-year record with Sweeney at the helm is 229-120-49 for a .637 win percentage

That's actually point percentage, but it seems pretty important to you. Did you realize that Dubas has a higher point percentage through his first 3 years, than Sweeney had through his?

I just don't see anything to suggest that our Leafs have closed that gap. IMO

I wonder what the reaction to us losing Krejci, Krug, Chara, Rask, Halak, etc. over the past couple years would be.

The fact the Bruins entire Perfection Line consumes only $19.5 mil for 3 highly productive players will always give them a great advantage when building around them. If add in newly signed Hall for $6 mil AAV that makes their top 4 forwards = $25.5 mil compared to Leafs core 4 of $40.5 mil which gives them +$15 mil extra cap when team building.

We spent 12% more on our forwards last year, and got 18% more goals from our forwards, for the record.

I can't help but think our Leafs gave up our 1st round pick + 2 others for Nick Foligno and now Boston is the benefactor signing him for $3.8 mil which we couldn't afford and then we snapped up Bruins non qualified players in Ritchie and Kase that they tossed away, by cutting from the bottom of their roster and using similar cap space on them.

Really? I can't help but think Boston gave up their 1st round pick and two drafted prospects for Kase and Ritchie, and now Toronto is the benefactor signing them for 3.75m combined, and then they snapped up our mid-30s winger that we tossed away, and used even more cap space on him.

However that said picture a Leafs Dcore if Reilly or Muzzin would miss significant time, leaving us Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, Menell and one of the top 2 and tell me if that looks like a playoff team defense?

Wow, so if we remove our two best defensemen, our defense will look worse? Maybe we should go pick up two more high-end defenseman just for insurance... But then what if they both get injured too... we'll be back to square one! We're doomed!

 

[Dekes For Days]

The issue with JT is his skating peaked at average. As he ages that is going to get worse.
This is purely anecdotal and i may be totally wrong, but it feels like players who can skate tend to have long careers because even as they age they can still keep up.

What I find more often happens is that players who rely on speed and skating to be effective age the worst, because they have to change their game a lot more as they age and slow down.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The issue with JT is his skating peaked at average. As he ages that is going to get worse.

This is purely anecdotal and i may be totally wrong, but it feels like players who can skate tend to have long careers because even as they age they can still keep up.

Jagr was the slowest player in the league by a good margin and still put up top line numbers at 40+. Guys like Marleau skew the numbers a bit because they can stay replacement level by skating fast, but I don't really see that being a better option than a slow PP specialist winger Tavares. I don't see why he can't stay a grinder netfront version of Spezza through his mid-late 30s, he has a good mind for the game and skating doesn't take away his work on the boards and in tight.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Not discrediting the Bruins but I just don’t understand why people talk about JT is aging while Bergeron is older but somehow age will never affect him. Then you have Rask who looks to be back in Jan and he will be back to his old self right away despite starting the season in Jan instead of Late Sept like the rest of the league.

Like us, Bruins got a lot of questions marks.
If anything, the regular season is very long and injuries and forms play such a huge role on team performance.
Now if we are facing the Bruins in a Best of 7 playoff series, that’s a whole different conversation.

Bergeron can still keep up with 2 of the top 2 wingers in the game on his line. Tavares is usually the slowest player on the ice

He gets results but man it doesn’t look pretty

 

[Dreakmur]

And even more recently than 2 and 3 years ago, the Bruins placed 10th in the league and 3rd in their division, while Toronto placed 6th in the league and 1st in their division.

Toronto played 63 regular season and play-off games, and didn't play a single game against another top-10 team. They then lost to the 18th place team in the play-offs.

Boston played 16 regular season and 5 more play-off games against top-10 teams... actually all 21 were against teams that tied for 5th overall.

 

[Blowfish]

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

The issue with JT is his skating peaked at average. As he ages that is going to get worse.

This is purely anecdotal and i may be totally wrong, but it feels like players who can skate tend to have long careers because even as they age they can still keep up.

Well, the strength of his game has always been in tight and battling in front of the net. They could extend his effectiveness just by focusing on that.

 

[Northernguy10]

Florida
Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Ottawa
Montreal
Detroit
Buffalo

I think Boston and Toronto will be in a close battle for 3rd spot and Ottawa won't be as far behind as most people think.

 

[Mess]

Toronto played 63 regular season and play-off games, and didn't play a single game against another top-10 team. They then lost to the 18th place team in the play-offs.

Boston played 16 regular season and 5 more play-off games against top-10 teams... actually all 21 were against teams that tied for 5th overall.

Some Leafs fans are putting a lot of weight of the anomaly of last year, where Leafs played only 6 teams and at 9-10 times each, and not a single team that was a top 10 team the prior season and none of the 24 USA based teams even a single game.

Here is the reminder of what the standings in progress looked like in 2019-20 when the Divisions were normal and season cut short suddenly. Our Leafs were tied for 8th in the Conference with CBJ and #10 Florida with a game in hand were nipping at Leafs heels. With 12-13 games left in the season the Leafs were clinging to a playoff spot as the last and final wild card team on rankings, and in danger of missing the playoffs had Florida caught and passed them in the Atlantic.

Toronto was not battling with Boston nor TB in the Atlantic standings but rather trying to hold off Florida to ensure a playoff spot all together. Notice how there are NO Canadian teams in this Eastern Conference and Atlantic Div playoff race to measure Leafs against the opposition.

2019-20 Eastern Conference standing based on P% when season ended.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Rank	Team	GP	W	L	OT	PTS	P%
1	Boston	70	44	14	12	100	0.714
2	Tampa Bay	70	43	21	6	92	0.657
3	Washington	69	41	20	8	90	0.652
4	Philadelphia	69	41	21	7	89	0.645
5	Pittsburgh	69	40	23	6	86	0.623
6	Carolina	68	38	25	5	81	0.596
7	NY Islanders	68	35	23	10	80	0.588
8	Toronto	70	36	25	9	81	0.579
9	Columbus	70	33	22	15	81	0.579
10	Florida	69	35	26	8	78	0.565

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[DarkKnight]

I predict a up and down regular season. This idea that we come back motivated, I mean how many times can we say that? There’s a realization that the regular season is meaningless, it obviously says nothing about playoff prospects, so lapping the field like last year, I don’t see that kind of motivation. I see this underlying psychology of just get in and for that reason we will likely have some head winds.

Also, despite the “it’s all good” mentality some exude here, the overall fan sentiment is on a knife edge, the pressure is immense and the moment we lose 3 in a row, it will be almost unparalleled. Ditto for sports radio, it’s almost universal that these playoffs was the worst embarrassment, everyone is on the clock, any hiccup and it’s going to get ugly. Disgusted is the underlying current going into this year.

I predict a rocky season, we get in but we’re playing meaningful games right up to the end of the season. And really, I won’t care if we are first or eighth, this regular season isn’t very instructive.

 

[Racer88]

Well, the strength of his game has always been in tight and battling in front of the net. They could extend his effectiveness just by focusing on that.

True but then the question becomes is that version of JT worth 11 million

 

[Racer88]

Some Leafs fans are putting a lot of weight of the anomaly of last year, where Leafs played only 6 teams and at 9-10 times each, and not a single team that was a top 10 team the prior season and none of the 24 USA based teams even a single game.

Here is the reminder of what the standings in progress looked like in 2019-20 when the Divisions were normal and season cut short suddenly. Our Leafs were tied for 8th in the Conference with CBJ and #10 Florida with a game in hand were nipping at Leafs heels. With 12-13 games left in the season the Leafs were clinging to a playoff spot as the last and final wild card team on rankings, and in danger of missing the playoffs had Florida caught and passed them in the Atlantic.

Toronto was not battling with Boston nor TB in the Atlantic standings but rather trying to hold off Florida to ensure a playoff spot all together.

2019-20 Eastern Conference standing based on P% when season ended.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Rank	Team	GP	W	L	OT	PTS	P%
1	Boston	70	44	14	12	100	0.714
2	Tampa Bay	70	43	21	6	92	0.657
3	Washington	69	41	20	8	90	0.652
4	Philadelphia	69	41	21	7	89	0.645
5	Pittsburgh	69	40	23	6	86	0.623
6	Carolina	68	38	25	5	81	0.596
7	NY Islanders	68	35	23	10	80	0.588
8	Toronto	70	36	25	9	81	0.579
9	Columbus	70	33	22	15	81	0.579
10	Florida	69	35	26	8	78	0.565

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Very good point and as the Leafs have made no real improvements in personal we are going to be in tough to make the playoffs

 

[Racer88]

I predict a up and down regular season. This idea that we come back motivated, I mean how many times can we say that? There’s a realization that the regular season is meaningless, it obviously says nothing about playoff prospects, so lapping the field like last year, I don’t see that kind of motivation. I see this underlying psychology of just get in and for that reason we will likely have some head winds.

Also, despite the “it’s all good” mentality some exude here, the overall fan sentiment is on a knife edge, the pressure is immense and the moment we lose 3 in a row, it will be almost unparalleled. Ditto for sports radio, it’s almost universal that these playoffs was the worst embarrassment, everyone is on the clock, any hiccup and it’s going to get ugly. Disgusted is the underlying current going into this year.

I predict a rocky season, we get in but we’re playing meaningful games right up to the end of the season. And really, I won’t care if we are first or eighth, this regular season isn’t very instructive.

While I agree these playoffs are one of the most embarrassing things, we can’t forget losing to our own Zamboni driver in net for the other team still has to be a historic low for this group
It was an embarrassment of biblical proportions…….I mean real Old Testament stuff

 

[DarkKnight]

While I agree these playoffs are one of the most embarrassing things, we can’t forget losing to our own Zamboni driver in net for the other team still has to be a historic low for this group

Not even close, a nothing regular season game vs an absolutely gutless playoff choke job is hardly analogous.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Toronto played 63 regular season and play-off games, and didn't play a single game against another top-10 team. They then lost to the 18th place team in the play-offs. Boston played 16 regular season and 5 more play-off games against top-10 teams...

Alternatively, Toronto played 63 regular season and play-off games, and didn't play a single game against a bottom-7 team. They then outplayed and outscored, but ultimately lost in 7 to the Cup finalist in the playoffs, while missing a massive piece of their roster. Boston played 16 games against the worst and 3rd worst teams in the league, and lost to the Conference finalist in the playoffs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Some Leafs fans are putting a lot of weight of the anomaly of last year

And some fans are putting a lot of effort into completely ignoring an entire season, and the most recent and representative sample we have, because it doesn't suit their argument.

 

[DarkKnight]

And some fans are putting a lot of effort into completely ignoring an entire season, and the most recent and representative sample we have, because it doesn't suit their argument.

Last year isn’t a representative sample because it was a bastardized format and we didn’t even play 75 percent of the league. How is a complete anomaly, with no reference point, “representative” of anything? The Leafs literally operated in a bubble, everything within it gets an asterisk, that’s just common sense. The stats don’t compute like a normal season, and any peer reviewed paper that tried to extrapolate this “garbage in” data would be rightfully dismissed by any scientific measure.

Here’s what we learned last year, when the going gets tough we folded, again. When we needed to show leadership, we sputtered, when we need to show up, we didn’t. Again.

Anyways, round and round, I just don’t understand how people can continually cling to the “look on the bright side” mentality when abject failure surrounds us, nothing in the real world works this way.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

True but then the question becomes is that version of JT worth 11 million

I don't think there ever was a version but as people have said many times, that was the market. Let's be honest, this was inevitable (a slow decline). That was the give and take of signing a premier UFA to a long term deal. Only 4 more years!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Last year isn’t a representative sample

Of course it is. More representative than 2-3 years ago, that's for sure.

 

[DarkKnight]

Of course it is. More representative than 2-3 years ago, when the majority of rosters were different, that's for sure.

Again, it isn’t. What normal year do you play the same team 4 games in a row? When do you not play most of the league? Just right there you’re dealing with a one off reality, so to treat it normally, you simply can’t. Or more correctly, most of us don’t and you go present that to a scientist, using your data presented, I’ll guarantee it is considered flawed from the get out, based on any standard. Face it, last year is an anomaly and I don’t trust much of what we saw. Now the playoffs, that looked familiar. I’ll leave it at that, there is no epiphany forthcoming.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Tampa will win the division, we will be in second or third.

I don’t think Montreal makes the playoffs, that said injuries can change anything.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again, it isn’t.

Again, it is. It's the most recent NHL hockey we have, with the closest rosters, the closest levels of development/aging, and the same coach. There is no evidence of significant differences in quality of competition, at least more than teams experience in any year. What happened 2-3 years ago is pretty irrelevant at this point.

 

[ToneDog]

Again, it isn’t. What normal year do you play the same team 4 games in a row? When do you not play most of the league? Just right there you’re dealing with a one off reality, so to treat it normally, you simply can’t. Or more correctly, most of us don’t and you go present that to a scientist, using your data presented, I’ll guarantee it is considered flawed from the get out, based on any standard. Face it, last year is an anomaly and I don’t trust much of what we saw. Now the playoffs, that looked familiar. I’ll leave it at that, there is no epiphany forthcoming.

anomaly
[əˈnäməlē]
NOUN

1. something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected.

Sounds like last year meets the criteria. Shouldn't be hard to grasp.

 

[DarkKnight]

Again, it is. It's the most recent NHL hockey we have, with the closest rosters, the closest levels of development/aging, and the same coach. There is no evidence of significant differences in quality of competition, at least more than teams experience in any year. What happened 2-3 years ago is pretty irrelevant at this point.

So is what you’re peddling.

 

[DarkKnight]

anomaly
[əˈnäməlē]
NOUN

1. something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected.

Sounds like last year meets the criteria. Shouldn't be hard to grasp.

I don’t know why it is, seems self evident.