Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Dekes For Days]

Florida looked pretty impressive vs Tampa in the first round.

I wonder how the Leafs would be perceived if they got outscored 24-17 and lost in the first round in 6, while getting shutout in the deciding game.

 

[The90]

I wonder how the Leafs would be perceived if they got outscored 24-17 and lost in the first round in 6, while getting shutout in the deciding game.

About the same lol. Like trash.

I have no problem with Florida being looked at as possibly better. I feel like they made some nice moves and could do some damage. Doesn’t take anything away from Toronto.

 

[Mess]

I wonder how the Leafs would be perceived if they got outscored 24-17 and lost in the first round in 6, while getting shutout in the deciding game.

We know the answer to this, except it wasn't against the Stanley Cup champs when last we were playing in the Atlantic.

Leafs lost in 5 games and got shutout in game #1 and deciding game game #5 and almost a 3rd game except for the goalie out last 3 minutes against the 3rd lowest scoring team in the league CBJ and failed to even qualify and make the usual final 16 for the playoffs. Leafs had all 4 of the core 4 on hand for all 5 games.

Leafs are returning to the Atlantic div and competing against the Metro Div for playoff spots also next year again.

 

[Stephen]

I wonder how the Leafs would be perceived if they got outscored 24-17 and lost in the first round in 6, while getting shutout in the deciding game.

Dekes, sometimes, there's a lot to be gleaned watching the out of town games. Here's Game 1 in that series where Florida earned a lot of praise just going punch for punch in a run and gun game with the eventual defending cup champions (a game they lost), which provides context for who they got outscored by. Bob sucked, but they have Knight and they have guys who can skate with just the best. Since then, they've also managed to add Sam Reinhart to round out their top six.



Florida's just a good team with some interesting upside. They can be praised without it being a perceived slight on Toronto.

 

[zeke]

1. If you want to assert that two 23 game samples the produced 22 & 25 points are very dissimilar that is your prerogative. Accusing me of lying because I disagree with that viewpoint is over the line.

I don't have to assert anything. 3 more points over a quarter of a season is 10+ pts over a whole season. That is the difference between a playoffs team and a bottom 5 team.

You are just having trouble understanding small samples. For example, a 2-1 record and a 1-2 record are both "near .500", but aren't remotely similar records.

As for #2, I disagree and believe I have made every reasonable effort to address your question, so I believe I will stop here.

You might not have noticed, but not one of those quotes of yours actually answers my question.

They all repeat that you used 23-24-23, but none of them explain WHY you chose that instead of 23-23-24.

 

[zeke]

Everyone understands but shockingly two.
Perhaps we can just leave it now?

Everyone understands? Really?

Then maybe you can explain why the breakdown 23-24-23 was used instead of 23-23-24 to us two dullards?

 

[zeke]

Statistics for the past year are meaningless for a number of reasons...one being very obvious.

You guys sure are betting everything on your unsupported "Weak division" theory, eh?

 

[zeke]

Some fans get nervous if you don't have the Leafs in first every year.

Lots of fans didn't have the leafs in 1st in their division last year. Many claimed they would be battling for a playoffs spot in the Canadian division.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We know the answer to this

We certainly do. Leafs would get torn to shreds for the same thing.

Leafs lost in 5 games and got shutout in game #1 and deciding game game #5 and almost a 3rd game except for the goalie out last 3 minutes against the 3rd lowest scoring team in the league CBJ and failed to even qualify and make the usual final 16 for the playoffs.

To clarify some points, Leafs lost in 5 in a 5 game series, that series was closer than Florida's, you can't get an "almost shutout", we did qualify for the playoffs that year, Columbus was the 4th lowest scoring team, and what you forgot to mention was that they were also the #1 team in the league defensively, and got outstanding goaltending in our series.

 

[zeke]

In 2019-20 when the season was cut short to roughly 70 games, the difference was 3 points but Florida had a game in hand when both played in the Atlantic.

Standings
Toronto Maple Leafs ...70 games .. 36 wins 25 losses 9 OTL .. 81 points with GF 238 and GA 227
Florida Panthers........... 69 games .. 35 wins 26 losses 8 OTL .. 78 points with GF 231 and GA 228

Pretty close and what would have happened if the season had completed in the last 12-13 games?

If you combined the last 2 partial season together ..

Toronto Maple Leafs .... 126 games 71 wins 39 losses 16 OTL = 158 points with GF: 425 & GA: 375
Florida Panthers............. 125 games 72 wins 40 losses 13 OTL = 157 points with GF: 420 & GA: 381

PS.
2020-21 Award finalists

Jim Gregory General Manager of Year Award finalists announced Marc Bergevin of Canadiens, Lou Lamoriello of Islanders & Bill Zito of Panthers in running for honor given to best NHL GM.

Jack Adams coach of the year finalists Rod Brind'Amour of Carolina Hurricanes, Dean Evason of Minnesota Wild & Joel Quenneville of Florida Panthers in running for honor given to best NHL coach.

It is fascinating to see other GMs and coaches get awards for....being similar to our Leafs.

 

[Racer88]

I wonder how the Leafs would be perceived if they got outscored 24-17 and lost in the first round in 6, while getting shutout in the deciding game.

About the same as they are now…..perennial first round losers

 

[zeke]

I wonder how the Leafs would be perceived if they got outscored 24-17 and lost in the first round in 6, while getting shutout in the deciding game.

Lol wins and losses don't matter dummy! Watch the games!!!

 

[zeke]

It's not rocket science simply look at their roster....

What part of their roster, exactly?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Lol wins and losses don't matter dummy! Watch the games!!!

I don't really understand the segment of fans who want to look at games in literally the most puerile ways to shut down any discussion, just to paint the Leafs as worse than they really are. First it was expected goals not leading to real goals, but now they can't even look to goals as the only measure of a team's performance, since the Leafs outscored Montreal in their series. And now they're eliminating wins and losses, since the Leafs winning more in the playoffs than Florida doesn't help push their agenda. It's just "the Leafs are bad and Florida is better because I say so" and the discussion ends there for them

 

[Menzinger]

Dekes, sometimes, there's a lot to be gleaned watching the out of town games. Here's Game 1 in that series where Florida earned a lot of praise just going punch for punch in a run and gun game with the eventual defending cup champions (a game they lost), which provides context for who they got outscored by. Bob sucked, but they have Knight and they have guys who can skate with just the best. Since then, they've also managed to add Sam Reinhart to round out their top six.



Florida's just a good team with some interesting upside. They can be praised without it being a perceived slight on Toronto.

While I do think the Panthers are a good team overall, I suspect their "good" moments from that series did manage to leave a distorted legacy on folks memories about the series.

When they played well they looked fantastic, but that only really happened during like 2 games. Tampa handily outplayed them the rest. I remember folks hyping up Marchment beacuse of a couple early goals, but at the bigger picture he was completely quite beyond those two moments.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dekes, sometimes, there's a lot to be gleaned watching the out of town games.

I watched all but one of the games in that series, Stephen, and while there may be justified reasons for being high on Florida going into next year, their performance in that series was not any better than Leaf playoff performances that have been ripped to shreds.

 

[Stephen]

While I do think the Panthers are a good team overall, I suspect their "good" moments from that series did manage to leave a distorted legacy on folks memories about the series.

When they played well they looked fantastic, but that only really happened during like 2 games. Tampa handily outplayed them the rest. I remember folks hyping up Marchment beacuse of a couple early goals, but at the bigger picture he was completely quite beyond those two moments.

Two factors that could bring Florida back to the pack will be Bobrovsky's absolutely leaky goaltending (though they have a potential fix with Knight on an ELC) and their depth scoring all seemingly having career years last year. Any kind of regression and inability to play the goalie hunch could get them in trouble over the course of the season. Reasons for optimism for Florida is their supporting cast is still young with upside, so it's not impossible for Reinhart Bennett and Duclair and friends to get better and better. And they have a fantastic number one defenseman in Ekblad if and when he's healthy.

The other, other wild card with them is just the "culture" card. If there's a franchise that's as cursed as the Leafs, there's something about the sunshine and apathy in Sunrise, Florida where they'll just pack it in at the first sign of trouble.

 

[Racer88]

Lol wins and losses don't matter dummy! Watch the games!!!

I think many of us think wins and loses absolutely count but some poster think that projected and expected goals/win are as important.
Some even think the Leafs dominated Montreal but back luck cost them the series

 

[Stephen]

I watched all but one of the games in that series, Stephen, and while there may be justified reasons for being high on Florida going into next year, their performance in that series was not any better than Leaf playoff performances that have been ripped to shreds.

The way Florida and Toronto lost their series couldn't be more different, so I'm not really sure how you could come away with the impression that goal differentials would have told the story in that series or Toronto would have been ripped to shreds for the same kind of performance.

Florida came out throwing the kitchen sink at Tampa in a run and gun Game 1 and blew 2x 1 goal leads and lost the game in the last minute. There was another run and gun game in Game 3 which Florida won in OT but Tampa slowly strangled the life out the Panthers. There was also a crisis in net where Florida went from Bobrovsky to Drieger, and by the time they were down 3-1, they just said screw it and went to Knight for the last two games. In terms of injuries, they were also missing Aaron Ekblad. In terms of star players, Barkov and Huberdeau produced pretty big offensive numbers throughout that series.

 

[zeke]

In terms of star players, Barkov and Huberdeau produced pretty big offensive numbers throughout that series.

Barkov -8 (1gl)
Huberdeau -3 (2gls)

 

[Dekes For Days]

The way Florida and Toronto lost their series couldn't be more different, so I'm not really sure how you could come away with the impression that goal differentials would have told the story in that series or Toronto would have been ripped to shreds for the same kind of performance.

Was more-so thinking about 2018-2019, but Florida didn't do better in their series than us, and they're being praised while we get ripped to shreds.

Florida came out throwing the kitchen sink at Tampa in a run and gun Game 1 and blew 2x 1 goal leads and lost the game in the last minute.

Playing run and gun? Blowing multiple leads? Losing in the last minute? I'll take "things Leafs would be torn to shreds for" for 500 Trebek. Also, I find it interesting how our "kitchen sink" moments are downplayed when we lose (like you did with game 6 OT), but it's played up for Florida.

There was also a crisis in net

Yeah, I'm sure we've never had goaltending impacts in our series.

In terms of injuries, they were also missing Aaron Ekblad.

Yeah, I'm sure we've never had injuries in our series.

 

[Stephen]

Barkov -8 (1gl)
Huberdeau -3 (2gls)

Yes, and I'm saying Florida's failures aren't the same as Toronto's. For fun:

Barkov 7 points in 6 games for a 1.16 PPG = 95 point pace in 82 games
Huberdeau 10 points in 6 games for a 1.67 PPG = 136 point pace in 82 games

 

[ToneDog]

Yes, and I'm saying Florida's failures aren't the same as Toronto's. For fun:

Barkov 7 points in 6 games for a 1.16 PPG = 95 point pace in 82 games
Huberdeau 10 points in 6 games for a 1.67 PPG = 136 point pace in 82 games

This debate needs to be settled on the ice. Won't be much longer. I just hope they allow as many fans into SBA as they do in the arenas in States.

 

[egd27]

You might not have noticed, but not one of those quotes of yours actually answers my question.

They all repeat that you used 23-24-23, but none of them explain WHY you chose that instead of 23-23-24.

Here it is one more time. If you still can't understand it, maybe you could ask someone else for help?

Babcock coached for 23 games.......that was the baseline.

Conveniently, the 70 game season split almost equally into 3 equal 23 game segments (1 extra)

I looked at their record for the first 23 games, the last 23 games and the middle 24. (using all games)

9	10	4	Seg 1
16	6	2	Seg 2
11	9	3	Seg 3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Stephen]

Was more-so thinking about 2018-2019, but Florida didn't do better in their series than us, and they're being praised while we get ripped to shreds.

Playing run and gun? Blowing multiple leads? Losing in the last minute? I'll take "things Leafs would be torn to shreds for" for 500 Trebek. Also, I find it interesting how our "kitchen sink" moments are downplayed when we lose (like you did with game 6 OT), but it's played up for Florida.

Yeah, I'm sure we've never had goaltending impacts in our series.

Yeah, I'm sure we've never had injuries in our series.

Why would you be thinking about the 2018-19 Leafs comparing them to the 2020-21 Florida Panthers? The 2020-21 Leafs have only 8 members remaining and any point of comparison is superficial and outdated.

In terms of "kitchen sink" moments, just reference to the out of town commentary about the intensity levels in each series while they were being played.

They're not stylistically similar to the Leafs, the Leafs have also never played three separate goalies in any playoff series, plus no Leaf team in the Lamoriello/Dubas era has been eliminated by an eventual cup champion, so there's really no point of comparison between the two teams.

And I don't think there's even a majority opinion on the Panthers being a clear cut better team than the Leafs, so there isn't even a reason to get so defensive other than the fact that Florida will be a good team.