Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

[Mickey Marner]

Aside from the goaltending shenanigans, I think the real issue has been the overhead costs of running this roster back every year. Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen, Johansson, Moore & Mikheyev were all forward depth departures with the only thing we have to show for them on our current roster being Kerfoot. That's an unacceptable amount of asset deprecation.

Alongside that we have the loss of draft picks.

Leafs draft picks 2018-2022. We have a deficit of three 1sts against a surplus of one 4th & two 7ths. Not good.

Round	Leafs 2018-2022
1st	2
2nd	5
3rd	5
4th	6
5th	5
6th	5
7th	7

Subject to change, of course, but we're also down two 2nds & one 4th in future picks.

Round	Leafs 2023-2025
1st	3
2nd	1
3rd	3
4th	2
5th	3
6th	3
7th	3

So, not only have we not been getting compensation for our losses, but we've been borrowing from the future to enable it. This insidious asset depreciation will become really obvious in a couple years if/when our stars are re-signed and we don't have the reinforcements to fill out our roster like we did previously. Once the cap goes up again you can say goodbye to cheap UFA reinforcements we've been getting by on as well. Can't keep operating like this, it's unsustainable.

 

[Ports]

I think the Good Guy, do right by players GM angle actually puts Dubas into a corner and makes it harder for him to be ruthless when required. I don’t know if Bobby Webster and Masai Ujiri are friends with players but you know they’ll make the hate choices when needed.

As evidenced by trading the most popular player on the team at the time DeMar DeRozan because they were never going to get to the promised land with him. Dubas on the other hand tells Nylander he’ll never be traded as long as he’s the GM. Nothing against Nylander but why do you promise that to a 21 year old?

 

[Ports]

This is the same team as last year.

Same GM.
Same Coach.
Same "Plan".
Same Result.

In all his years coaching Engvall in the AHL and now here Keefe still hasn't convinced the big guy to use his size.

I see Nylander throwing hits with a Sweden jersey on but for the team that pays him $7M/year he averages 0.25 hits per game.

How can a coach command respect from the room when other players see what I just pointed out above? Sure Keefe coached them to the best regular season last year so he's not exactly incompetent, but by now it's clear: He's not the guy.

The bottom 6 looked marginally better on paper than last year but so far all we've seen is bad penalties.

Dubas ties up $4.5M in cap space for two years on a goalie that can't stay healthy, when every (literally) dollar counts. Robertson is sent down primarily for cap reasons, not hockey reasons.

Yet he and Keefe both still have jobs.

Unless Keefe has lost the room they will play better soon and get back to their winning ways, probably saving both of them until the end of the season. Just remember ..

Same team as last year, and the year before and the year before that. Most of us saw it in the Summer when the team decided to basically just rinse and repeat the failed approach of the past 6 years.

Anyone thinking this post-season is going to have a better result than the last 6, I can only say I admire your optimism. I'd argue bordering on delusional, but hey some of us have to keep the faith.

/rant of the week. Thanks for letting me vent.

I agree and they probably took a step back this year from the team they took into the playoffs which had a defenseman who forced opponents to keep their head up and Mikheyev who had finally developed a scoring touch.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Some people have said that when heads roll all three would go…I think that’s going to be the case. Like what can Shanahan really say to defend himself? He’s been here eight years and has nothing to show for it.

Shanahan isn't a bad president. The team hasn't had post-season success, but it's not like the rosters haven't been good. They're in a deep division, and last season they just took the back-to-back defending (at the time) Stanley Cup champs to a game 7.

Edit: Thought this was on the NHL talk forums, but points still stands.

 

[Ports]

HF Leaf Fans Emergency Meeting - Fan Morale Super Topic

Ok so from what I can see so far by the fan/ media reactions after 4 games is this:
1. It takes very little for TOR fans to feel optimistic about the season ahead: a close win, a good performance by Samsonov, skilled goals/plays by Nylander, etc.

2. Conversely it takes very little for TOR fans to feel negative about this team and the season ahead: Murray's early LTIR, Ritchie scoring against his old team, questionable coaching, overpaid "elite" players not in tune for the season, etc.

This season is going to be the biggest roller coaster ride of emotional swings you'll ever see.

I don't always look to Dubas'/Keefe for these issues. I like to look at Shanahan. I can't believe he's allowed Dubas to construct a team that looks like this when he knows damn well what a winning team looks like. I'm not even talking about fighting either. Keefe said it himself: (paraphrasing) If the elite players aren't effective the team doesn't win. That sentiment describes who TOR is as a team. If they can't win with PP goals, drop passes, and puck possession then they have no other way. They cannot win by outworking another team, they can't win it on goaltending bailing them out, and they can't win it on defensive play, and toughness. All the things that Shanahan and the Red Wings had. It just sickens me how far Shanny has let this go.


Shanny>
Dubas>. Made their bed. Now they have lie in it.
Keefe>

He’s gotta go.

 

[Ports]

This board JFK... You want Keefe to bench the stars 4 games into the season? Sure if this is a lack of effort in Feb or something I can see this being said... But Keefe kept playing them because the stars are in a funk and he is trying to get them out of it.

Last season Matthews had what 2 goals in his first 9 games and then he scored 60? Leafs started 2-4-1 and then set a franchise record for points.

We are making the playoffs. Why do we care about how this team plays in October? In the new year we are saying "yeah their good record means nothing let's see the playoffs". Good lord.

Everyone keeps saying making the playoffs is a given. but with their goaltending and reliance on four players for scoring, they’re one injury away from being in serious trouble.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

HF Leaf Fans Emergency Meeting - Fan Morale Super Topic

Ok so from what I can see so far by the fan/ media reactions after 4 games is this:
1. It takes very little for TOR fans to feel optimistic about the season ahead: a close win, a good performance by Samsonov, skilled goals/plays by Nylander, etc.

2. Conversely it takes very little for TOR fans to feel negative about this team and the season ahead: Murray's early LTIR, Ritchie scoring against his old team, questionable coaching, overpaid "elite" players not in tune for the season, etc.

This season is going to be the biggest roller coaster ride of emotional swings you'll ever see.

I don't always look to Dubas'/Keefe for these issues. I like to look at Shanahan. I can't believe he's allowed Dubas to construct a team that looks like this when he knows damn well what a winning team looks like. I'm not even talking about fighting either. Keefe said it himself: (paraphrasing) If the elite players aren't effective the team doesn't win. That sentiment describes who TOR is as a team. If they can't win with PP goals, drop passes, and puck possession then they have no other way. They cannot win by outworking another team, they can't win it on goaltending bailing them out, and they can't win it on defensive play, and toughness. All the things that Shanahan and the Red Wings had. It just sickens me how far Shanny has let this go.


Shanny>
Dubas>. Made their bed. Now they have lie in it.
Keefe>

not really our fault we act this way. The number of historic collapses and embarrassments this team has put us through along with their obvious talent going wasted has instilled some PTSD in most serious fans on here. They’ve made it difficult to take things in stride at this point. You can’t blame the fans for their passion (not saying you are btw).

 

[Osmows OReilly]

Shanahan isn't a bad president. The team hasn't had post-season success, but it's not like the rosters haven't been good. They're in a deep division, and last season they just took the back-to-back defending (at the time) Stanley Cup champs to a game 7.

Edit: Thought this was on the NHL talk forums, but points still stands.

I'm sorry but saying they're in a deep division and took the back-to-back defending champs to game seven are just excuses. They've lost in the first round six straight time and cannot win a series clinching game to save their lives. No matter the competition the result has been the same and the GM he hired is too obsessed with the four forwards he inherited to actually make any meaningful changes.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Shanahan isn't a bad president. The team hasn't had post-season success, but it's not like the rosters haven't been good. They're in a deep division, and last season they just took the back-to-back defending (at the time) Stanley Cup champs to a game 7.

Edit: Thought this was on the NHL talk forums, but points still stands.

I think we are past the point of moral victories here but appreciate the post nonetheless

 

[Ianturnedbull]

not really our fault we act this way. The number of historic collapses and embarrassments this team has put us through along with their obvious talent going wasted has instilled some PTSD in most serious fans on here. They’ve made it difficult to take things in stride at this point. You can’t blame the fans for their passion (not saying you are btw).

Yes. I agree.

 

[Kelly]

How does it look going into the Matthews extensions talks with a brand new management team? Obviously it shouldn't change their decision on whether or not Dubas gets another contract -- but oof.

Gotta think it doesn't look too good to the Matthews side. Management team likely would want to re-tool, and that isn't going to happen overnight.

Or, maybe Matthews doesn't give a shit, what do I know.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Shanahan isn't a bad president. The team hasn't had post-season success, but it's not like the rosters haven't been good. They're in a deep division, and last season they just took the back-to-back defending (at the time) Stanley Cup champs to a game 7.

Edit: Thought this was on the NHL talk forums, but points still stands.

I think he has you fooled because he's part of a lot of big picture decisions. Dubas is executing Shanny's vision and it's not showing a stitch of success.

 

[ToneDog]

How does it look going into the Matthews extensions talks with a brand new management team? Obviously it shouldn't change their decision on whether or not Dubas gets another contract -- but oof.

Gotta think it doesn't look too good to the Matthews side. Management team likely would want to re-tool, and that isn't going to happen overnight.

Or, maybe Matthews doesn't give a shit, what do I know.

Matty can smile all he wants when asked whether he wants to play in Arizona but once we hit June and he does not give me a guarantee that he signs July 1st, I am shopping him to the Yotes for a package of players and picks starting with the #1 pick (I am assuming they will finish last and win the lottery given their schedule).

As for who the GM is, I doubt Matty cares. It will be all about the money or wanting to be a star in the U.S.

 

[WTFMAN99]

How does it look going into the Matthews extensions talks with a brand new management team? Obviously it shouldn't change their decision on whether or not Dubas gets another contract -- but oof.

Gotta think it doesn't look too good to the Matthews side. Management team likely would want to re-tool, and that isn't going to happen overnight.

Or, maybe Matthews doesn't give a shit, what do I know.

In theory it would be easier if we had success under Dubas and he was simply in place for extension talks.

On the other hand, if success hasn't happened under Dubas, why would Matthews think anything will change in the future?

If you don't know by the draft that Matthews is signed for July 1st, you shop him and accept we're rebuilding.

 

[Dreakmur]

How does it look going into the Matthews extensions talks with a brand new management team? Obviously it shouldn't change their decision on whether or not Dubas gets another contract -- but oof.

Gotta think it doesn't look too good to the Matthews side. Management team likely would want to re-tool, and that isn't going to happen overnight.

Or, maybe Matthews doesn't give a shit, what do I know.

How does it look to a guy who supposedly wants to win that a team won’t make adjustments after repeatedly losing?

I personally would want to go to an organization that is willing to do what it takes to win, and doing nothing isn’t what it takes…

 

[ToneDog]

In theory it would be easier if we had success under Dubas and he was simply in place for extension talks.

On the other hand, if success hasn't happened under Dubas, why would Matthews think anything will change in the future?

If you don't know by the draft that Matthews is signed for July 1st, you shop him and accept we're rebuilding.

Yup, no way do you go through next season with Matthews not signed. Tell all teams to submit their best offers on June 1st and get a bidding war started between the Rangers, Flyers, Yotes, Avs, Kings, and Ducks. Hawks, Blues, Devils, Wings, Preds, Islanders all welcome to join the bidding.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

How does it look going into the Matthews extensions talks with a brand new management team? Obviously it shouldn't change their decision on whether or not Dubas gets another contract -- but oof.

Gotta think it doesn't look too good to the Matthews side. Management team likely would want to re-tool, and that isn't going to happen overnight.

Or, maybe Matthews doesn't give a shit, what do I know.

Superstars have survived firings, re-tooling, coaching changes, and re-structuring before. Not all of them just leave town when the results are not there. A re-tooling is different then a scorched earth approach. Likely a new GM could be advantageous for Matthews.

 

[kevsh]

Don't let the door hit you.

I want them to win and I will watch all season because even with diminished playoff expectations they are still a great team to watch. And they have a Matthews.

I do think I or anyone else should be able to criticize what we see and not be accused of abandoning the team. In other words, I'm not "on my way out the door" I just want to see changes.

 

[Maple Leaf]

I am not drinking the kool aid like you bois

 

[notbias]

Aside from the goaltending shenanigans, I think the real issue has been the overhead costs of running this roster back every year. Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen, Johansson, Moore & Mikheyev were all forward depth departures with the only thing we have to show for them on our current roster being Kerfoot. That's an unacceptable amount of asset deprecation.

Alongside that we have the loss of draft picks.

Leafs draft picks 2018-2022. We have a deficit of three 1sts against a surplus of one 4th & two 7ths. Not good.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Round[/TD]
[TD]Leafs 2018-2022[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3rd[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4th[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5th[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6th[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7th[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Subject to change, of course, but we're also down two 2nds & one 4th in future picks.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Round[/TD]
[TD]Leafs 2023-2025[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2nd[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3rd[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4th[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5th[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6th[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7th[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So, not only have we not been getting compensation for our losses, but we've been borrowing from the future to enable it. This insidious asset depreciation will become really obvious in a couple years if/when our stars are re-signed and we don't have the reinforcements to fill out our roster like we did previously. Once the cap goes up again you can say goodbye to cheap UFA reinforcements we've been getting by on as well. Can't keep operating like this, it's unsustainable.

We have a good prospect pool and some good young players. LW might end up being stronger than RW, we have Amirov, Knies, Robertson, all amazing prospects.

Rielly, Liljegren, Sandin is not a bad start to a D group for the next ~8 years.

Niemela, Villeneuve, and Kral, all at worst I think could be good secondary help.

So are you advocating we should be sellers at the deadline? If people don't want to add at the deadline they should be fine with Dubas staying on forever. You are taking away a tool that all GMs use in a playoff race.

You listed -- Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen, Johansson, Moore & Mikheyev
The only guy who hasn't been replaced is Kadri, who is very hard to replace and he was shipped out for other reasons.

 

[Antropovsky]

Results are pretty meh... guys like Hyman, Kadri, Moore, Marchment would have been excellent to keep.

He keeps moving deck chairs....moving bottom 6 players and moving around assistant coaches but is afraid to make major moves to shake the team up ie coach change, captaincy change, core trade. He won't speak a bad word about his players.

Weird that keeps going to SOO for players...makes you doubt his confidence in his and his teams scouting, also shows is risk aversion too.

Everything about his management is wishy washy...trying to please everyone. Like Matthews and Marner sharing an A. Or telling Nylander he won't trade him. Doesn't sign tough players, then signs them, then takes them in and out of the lineup.

The guy needs to grow a backbone....and I actually like him.

 

[notbias]

Results are pretty meh... guys like Hyman, Kadri, Moore, Marchment would have been excellent to keep.

He keeps moving deck chairs....moving bottom 6 players and moving around assistant coaches but is afraid to make major moves to shake the team up ie coach change, captaincy change, core trade. He won't speak a bad word about his players.

Weird that keeps going to SOO for players...makes you doubt his confidence in his and his teams scouting, also shows is risk aversion too.

Everything about his management is wishy washy...trying to please everyone. Like Matthews and Marner sharing an A. Or telling Nylander he won't trade him. Doesn't sign tough players, then signs them, then takes them in and out of the lineup.

The guy needs to grow a backbone....and I actually like him.

How are we fitting the almost 20 million from those 4 players you mentioned? Marner/Matthews?

Yep, too afraid to make major coaching changes.......

Yep, will only sign Soo players, Campbell and McCann have been great his year......

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yup, no way do you go through next season with Matthews not signed. Tell all teams to submit their best offers on June 1st and get a bidding war started between the Rangers, Flyers, Yotes, Avs, Kings, and Ducks. Hawks, Blues, Devils, Wings, Preds, Islanders all welcome to join the bidding.

The reality is you don't even need these guys to win a series, so many teams with inferior talent etc have beaten us or won rounds. You could take the dynamite to this and get it back on track fast if you hit on picks.

I tried to sign guys at higher prices to get them to sign here at limited term to flip.

Rielly seems the most unlikely deal but it shaves term and you get additional picks but I figured if he's waiving, it would be for Vancouver.

 

[rocketman588]

Yup, no way do you go through next season with Matthews not signed. Tell all teams to submit their best offers on June 1st and get a bidding war started between the Rangers, Flyers, Yotes, Avs, Kings, and Ducks. Hawks, Blues, Devils, Wings, Preds, Islanders all welcome to join the bidding.

No trade Clause

I wouldn't be against trading him for bedard plus another first or something reset the clock

 

[ToneDog]

No trade Clause

I wouldn't be against trading him for bedard plus another first or something reset the clock

Yup that is why I start June 1st or as soon as our playoff run ends. NMC kicks in July 1, 2023. You could still trade him after July first if he agrees like Tkachuk did.

Getting Bedard would soften the blow and starts a reset. JT comes off the books two seasons later.