Atd 2024 1st Round Drumheller Dinosaurs vs Guelph Platers

[VanIslander]

Rene Lecavalier division:



Drumheller Dinosaurs

coach Art Ross

John LeClair - Mario Lemieux (A) - Marian Hossa
Michel Goulet - Mats Sundin - Jarome Iginla
Zach Parise - Rod Brind'amour (C) - Jack Walker
Sid Smith - Dave Poulin - Vladimir Vikulov
Dale Hunter, Phil Kessel

Rod Langway - Pierre Pilote (A)
Vladimir Lutchenko - Al MacInnis
Gus Mortson - Brian Rafalski
Robert Svehla

Johnny Bower
Carey Price


vs.


Guelph Platers

coach Jon Cooper

Johnny Bucyk (A) - Connor McDavid - Jari Kurri
Patrik Elias - Nicklas Backstrom - Brian Hextall Sr.
Kevin Stevens - Steven Stamkos - Bobby Rousseau
Don Marcotte - Don Luce - Floyd Curry

Brian Leetch (A) - Emile Bouchard (C)
Art Ross - Drew Doughty
Bill Hajt - Brent Seabrook

Bernie Parent
Tuukka Rask​

 

[VanIslander]

Post special teams and what have you (w.h.y.).

 

[BraveCanadian]

Geez the main pieces of our teams are practically mirror images of one another.

I’ll have some time to break things down later. I see some of the depth being there big factors here.

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

Special teams

PP1

Leclair
Lemieux - Goulet
MacInnis - Pilote

PP2

Parise
Iginla - Sundin - Hossa
Rafalski

PK1

Brind'amour - Walker
Langway - Mortson

PK2

Poulin - Hossa
Lutchenko - MacInnis

Overall breakdown:

- Lemieux>McDavid, he’s peaked higher as a player, I like his skillset more and he is more proven taking team to a championship. Both teams have solid fits around them. We have Leclair as a rich man’s Stevens and like Kurri, Hossa is a nice defender that can score goals. Our possession should be great.

- The 3rd liners are offense vs defense as we have a combination of Walker (one of the best defensive forwards for his era) and multiple Selke winner Brind’amour, also Parise’s game was like a star version of a 3rd liner. This combined with Langway's pair should be great against McDavid's line. On the other hand his 3rd line of Stamkos with Stevens and Rousseau is much better on offense but it means he does not really have the shut down line in his top 3. I also think Stamkos and Stevens isn't the perfect fit on offense or anything.

- While his 4th line are all good defenders, I think I have the two best 4th liners on offense. Smith has the best NHL stats finishes as he has 5 top 10 goal seasons (3 top 5) and 3 top 10 in points, and led two Leafs Cup teams in goals, his game is more of a dirty goal guy but I think that’s fine for 4th line. Vikulov is my most purely skilled bottom 6er known for his playmaking. Centering them is a Selke winner in Poulin.

- I’ll admit his 2nd line is a more complimentary fit in terms of playmaking/defense however I think Sundin with Goulet and Iginla is more talented to make up for it, all three players can score goals and are willing to hustle.

- The defense comp is pretty close, I’d give a small edge to Pilote over Doughty and Langway over Bouchard personally and Leetch and MacInnis are pretty close. I also think Mortson (top pair on Cup winning Leafs team) may be better than Hajt and Rafalski like Seabrook played co pilot beside some elite Ds. Likewise, I don’t see a lot of separation in the goalies, although I prefer Price to Rask personally.

- For powerplay I don’t need to sell you on Lemieux and MacInnis there, but a sneakier one is Goulet who has the 7th and T-10th highest power play goal seasons of all time. Leclair is a superb option to play closest to the net and I think gives us a better 3rd PP forward than either Kurri or Rousseau. We put another skilled defensemen in Pilote beside MacInnis to replicate how he succeeded most such as with Suter in Calgary. Our 2nd PP is also decent with Rafalski giving us another playmaking D to run it.

- I also think we have a top PK. I’d take the Brind’amour and Walker combo over Luce and Curry for penalty killing, and the Langway and Mortson can have small advantage over Hajt and Bouchard. Our 2nd PK is also pretty solid with Poulin and Hossa as another strong combo and I like MacInnis more on D more than Leetch.

Coaching

I wanted Lemieux to have the chains off rather than be bogged down playing a tight dump and chase style. Ross seems like he was a forward thinking coach as seen by letting Shore do his rushing thing. He also went on to coach Cowley who had one of the best playmaking peaks of all time for a forward. Since one of our best defensemen Pilote is a good rusher he should also be maximized her, and to an extent MacInnis offensive skills could also work.

I don’t have a problem with the Cooper pick for his team although the fit seems neutral more than anything especially matching the Lightning other than having Stamkos.

Overall it's close but I think I have a slight advantage on D and special teams and I think Lemieux outperforms McDavid as he is both the better player and his team isn't set up to guard him as well.

 

[BraveCanadian]

PP1 - Steven Stamkos - Connor McDavid - Jari Kurri - Brian Leetch - Bobby Rousseau
PP2 - Johnny Bucyk - Nicklas Backstrom - Brian Hextall Sr. - Art Ross - Drew Doughty

PK1 - Don Luce - Floyd Curry - Bill Hajt - Emile Bouchard
PK2 - Don Marcotte/McDavid - Jari Kurri - Brian Leetch - Drew Doughty​

 

[BraveCanadian]

Overall breakdown:

- Lemieux>McDavid, he’s peaked higher as a player, I like his skillset more and he is more proven taking team to a championship. Both teams have solid fits around them. We have Leclair as a rich man’s Stevens and like Kurri, Hossa is a nice defender that can score goals. Our possession should be great.

Thanks for getting things started. I'm going to respond in pieces here to make sure I don't lose things -

1st Line C

I agree that Lemieux is better than McDavid, but because Lemieux missed so many games - and partly because of Gretzky - the question becomes how much?

If we look at seven year VsX to look at their primes and their respective awards it is probably a lot closer than people think:

Lemieux 119.8 - McDavid 117.5
Lemieux 3 Hart - McDavid 3 Hard
Lemieux 6 Art Ross - McDavid 5 Art Ross
Lemieux 4 Pearson - McDavid 4 Pearson

Lemieux has much better longevity in the 10 year VsX at 112 to 97.7. That 97.7 still puts McDavid in the Crosby-Ovi territory for 10 year career offense and he has only played nine years!

The big factor for Lemieux is that he has closed the deal twice with his 2 Conn Smythe performances, however McDavid has been stellar in the playoffs so far in his career as well with 75 points in 49 career games for 1.53PPG.

The Dinosaurs built a solid line around Lemieux to cover some of his deficiencies. LeClair gives the line a big body power forward who was great on the cycle and could be a net front presence. Hossa gives the line some defensive responsibility and some talent too. However, McDavid has much better help with him.

McDavid's wingers are both multi-talented and can both score and make plays. Both are responsible defensively and Kurri is remarkably so.


1st Line LW

Both of these left wingers provide the muscle on their lines but even discounting Bucyk's post-prime peak with the Orr Bruins, he is a better rounded and has much better longevity which makes up for the difference in that department at center. Personally I think that Bucyk was more noted for being physically punishing (which he could do cleanly) and solid defensively as well. LeClair is obviously the better goalscorer.

Bucyk
VsX7 88.7 VsX10 83.9
Goals 2,6, 9, 9, 9 (9 seasons top 10 ESG)
Assists 3,7,8,9,10
Points 3,7,7,8,9,9

LeClair
VsX7 81.7 VsX10 71.2
Goals 3,3,5,5,7,10
Assists
Points 4,5,9,9


1st Line RW

Hossa is a great player but very poor man's Kurri. Kurri peaked higher, has better 10 year longevity offensively, is better defensively and is more rounded offensively.

Kurri
VsX 7 88.1 VsX10 81.2
Goals 1,2,3,5
Assists 9,9,10
Points 2,2,4,7,8,9
**All six times Kurri was 10 ten in points he was also top 10 in Selke voting**

Hossa
VsX 82.4 VsX 78.1
Goals 4,5,5,6
Assists
Points 5,6
3 times top 10 in Selke voting - none when top 10 in scoring

I'm very comfortable playing my front line power-on-power vs. any front line in the league and I think having better and more well rounded wingers here makes our line very dangerous even against a well constructed line featuring Lemieux.

More to follow...

 

[BraveCanadian]

2nd Lines

Big advantage to Guelph with our well constructed line of players that I feel comfortable going power-on-power with because each of them is at least a plus defensively as well.

The Dinosaurs likely have the best individual player of the six in Iginla, but there is a lack of playmaking on their second line with 3 primarily shoot-first players. Guelph's Backstrom has two wingers that can score and Elias can also chip in as a second playmaker. I think that we're better rounded offensively and better defensively. Hextall gives us a power forward of our own.

VsX7 with each:
Platers - Patrik Elias (78.9) - Nicklas Backstrom (87.7) - Brian Hextall Sr. (80.9)
Dinosaurs - Michel Goulet (79.3) - Mats Sundin (82.1) - Jarome Iginla (86.7)

Backstrom Top 10 in Assists - 1,2,3,3,3,3,7
All Dinosaur second liners - 7, 10, 10

 

[BraveCanadian]

- The 3rd liners are offense vs defense as we have a combination of Walker (one of the best defensive forwards for his era) and multiple Selke winner Brind’amour, also Parise’s game was like a star version of a 3rd liner. This combined with Langway's pair should be great against McDavid's line. On the other hand his 3rd line of Stamkos with Stevens and Rousseau is much better on offense but it means he does not really have the shut down line in his top 3. I also think Stamkos and Stevens isn't the perfect fit on offense or anything.

Agreed the lines diverge in purposes here but Stamkos is our secret weapon here.

Stamkos is the third best offensive player in this series after only Lemieux and McDavid and he has wingers here to help optimize his impact while sheltering him away from top matchups.

Due to the way we have construced our first two lines we're good going power-on-power and letting Stamkos on our 3rd line take advantage of other teams weaker lines and pairings.

 

[BraveCanadian]

- While his 4th line are all good defenders, I think I have the two best 4th liners on offense. Smith has the best NHL stats finishes as he has 5 top 10 goal seasons (3 top 5) and 3 top 10 in points, and led two Leafs Cup teams in goals, his game is more of a dirty goal guy but I think that’s fine for 4th line. Vikulov is my most purely skilled bottom 6er known for his playmaking. Centering them is a Selke winner in Poulin.

- I’ll admit his 2nd line is a more complimentary fit in terms of playmaking/defense however I think Sundin with Goulet and Iginla is more talented to make up for it, all three players can score goals and are willing to hustle.

Our fourth line is specialists, take defensive zone draws, close out games sort of line. We're planning on rolling our 3 other lines most of the time. The can also add physicality.

- The defense comp is pretty close, I’d give a small edge to Pilote over Doughty and Langway over Bouchard personally and Leetch and MacInnis are pretty close. I also think Mortson (top pair on Cup winning Leafs team) may be better than Hajt and Rafalski like Seabrook played co pilot beside some elite Ds. Likewise, I don’t see a lot of separation in the goalies, although I prefer Price to Rask personally.

I think your team has an edge in D on paper but our top pairings are constructed similarly and I really like Leetch playing with McDavid - I think that would be amazing and difficult to contain.

Goaltending is great on both sides.

- For powerplay I don’t need to sell you on Lemieux and MacInnis there, but a sneakier one is Goulet who has the 7th and T-10th highest power play goal seasons of all time. Leclair is a superb option to play closest to the net and I think gives us a better 3rd PP forward than either Kurri or Rousseau. We put another skilled defensemen in Pilote beside MacInnis to replicate how he succeeded most such as with Suter in Calgary. Our 2nd PP is also decent with Rafalski giving us another playmaking D to run it.

- I also think we have a top PK. I’d take the Brind’amour and Walker combo over Luce and Curry for penalty killing, and the Langway and Mortson can have small advantage over Hajt and Bouchard. Our 2nd PK is also pretty solid with Poulin and Hossa as another strong combo and I like MacInnis more on D more than Leetch.

I don't think we give up much if anything on the PP even against Lemieux and MacInnis.

Our top PP unit is stacked. I'm quite confident our second PP unit is better as well with Backstrom out there playmaking. The same lack of playmaking that hurts your 2nd line comes up again here.

Our PK is also outstanding with our first PK unit featuring all time PK greats (that can be quantified) like Hajt and Luce and ones that are known to be strong defensively (from periods that can't) like Bouchard and Curry.

The second PK has a constant threat with Kurri out there and we'll throw McDavid out late and make the PP worry.

Coaching

I wanted Lemieux to have the chains off rather than be bogged down playing a tight dump and chase style. Ross seems like he was a forward thinking coach as seen by letting Shore do his rushing thing. He also went on to coach Cowley who had one of the best playmaking peaks of all time for a forward. Since one of our best defensemen Pilote is a good rusher he should also be maximized her, and to an extent MacInnis offensive skills could also work.

I don’t have a problem with the Cooper pick for his team although the fit seems neutral more than anything especially matching the Lightning other than having Stamkos.

Overall it's close but I think I have a slight advantage on D and special teams and I think Lemieux outperforms McDavid as he is both the better player and his team isn't set up to guard him as well.

Art Ross has a couple of cups and has to get a lot of credit for his history in the game but Cooper's record speaks for itself. Three straight finals in the cap era, two cups, 500+ wins with a .694 in the regular season and a 86-59 playoff record so far.. Outstanding!

You built a great team @MVP of West Hollywd and like I said the top lines and top pairings are a bit like mirrors of each other but I like our construction better (especially the 2nd line) to go power on power and roll three dangerous lines and that should win out!