1. Tom Koehler will be roughly as valuable as Matt Moore.
To look at Koehler’s track record from the his four years in the Marlins’ rotation, the picture seems to be clear. He’s been an average strikeout pitcher at best with subpar control. Yet there was a significant shift that occurred less than two months into last season that carried over for an 18-start period. Koehler began to throw his slider more frequently, beginning with his May 29 start at the Braves, which led to an increase in his whiff and strikeout rates. The increased slider usage coincided with a shift in his release point and improved control. Between June 3 and Sept. 4, Koehler had a 3.53 ERA with a 20.4 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent walk rate.
His control faltered badly over his last five starts, but I can’t let go of the dramatic improvement from the previous 18 outings. Even with some regression in his walk rate, Koehler could have Matt Moore’s numbers from last season, albeit with a little less efficiency. I’d expect both pitchers to throw around 190 innings, get decent run support and have their home parks limit their HR/9 ratios to right around 1.0.