As a fan what is your "Realistic" expectation for next season? What you want?

[hamzarocks]

Dubas has been here 8 years; 4 years as GM.

I forgot he's been here that long tbh

I still blame Shanahan for the state of team mostly

Dubas biggest error was JT and he's stuck living with that impacting his teams ability to build a playoff winner

He's made a series of good moved but he ends up losing them shortly due to cap constraints (losing Jack a good acquisition, losing mikheyev a good signing, going to likely lose Bunting in a year etc)

I don't think 2022 Kyle Dubas signs 11M JT if he was a 28 UFA this year. He's starting to realize rhe importance of building a team rather than having an assortment of skilled players who have good stats.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Dubas is learning from his mistakes.
It just warms the heart

 

[Morbo]

I mean, there's no way I can answer this question without knowing who our starting goalie is. at bare minimum.

 

[Racer88]

35
I dunno they have been so close multiple times feels like they can get over it at anytime. not sure why you think it doesnt look like it will happen anytime soon. not like they are a horrible team.

You got lots of time. Lol.
I’m just not sure the way they are built that they will be able to get over the hump.
I don’t know if the core can rise to the occasion. I truly hope I am wrong but only time will tell

or maybe I or both of us should save that comment till we find out who our starter/backups are
imagine Mrazek/Hutchinson.....lol

The stuff nightmares are made of. Lol

Seems Sakic's fortunes changed after talking to Dubas and Leafs closing the window on Sakic (May 2017) and Shanny hiring Dubas as Leafs GM (May 2018). One team went on to win the Cup while the other went on to choke 4 more consecutive times in round #1.

Joes should be thanking his lucky stars that Leafs stopped him in his tracks.

No kidding

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas is learning from his mistakes.
It just warms the heart

How many mistakes is he allowed to correct ??

 

[Nineteen67]

All that with very little cap room

It’s only year 5, you need to lower your expectations.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I forgot he's been here that long tbh

I still blame Shanahan for the state of team mostly

Dubas biggest error was JT and he's stuck living with that impacting his teams ability to build a playoff winner

He's made a series of good moved but he ends up losing them shortly due to cap constraints (losing Jack a good acquisition, losing mikheyev a good signing, going to likely lose Bunting in a year etc)

I don't think 2022 Kyle Dubas signs 11M JT if he was a 28 UFA this year. He's starting to realize rhe importance of building a team rather than having an assortment of skilled players who have good stats.

Feck. It's worrying that our GM is learning at a much slower rate than the average HF poster.

 

[Racer88]

It’s only year 5, you need to lower your expectations.

They have lost in the first round 6 years in a row and I should lower my expectations……..to maybe 7 or 8 years in a row?

 

[Trapper]

They have lost in the first round 6 years in a row and I should lower my expectations……..to maybe 7 or 8 years in a row?

Everyone will be a UFA in 7-8 years in a row and we haven’t won a round. I’d start expectations from there.

 

[Nineteen67]

They have lost in the first round 6 years in a row and I should lower my expectations……..to maybe 7 or 8 years in a row?

What’s wrong with losing in round 1? I’ve been told MLSE doesn’t need the added revenue and they can easily afford keep training their GM

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

They could definitely brute force some of those scoring looks more often, just get it on net and not be hesitant to lose it/have to recover it.

I think that's the main reason they keep on doing what they do in the O-zone. They are not good puck retrievers and they don't want to have to battle for it...so they keep to the outside cycling around hoping for a shot. Why this is a constant is baffling. Just get some guys with some size and compete out there instead of the High IQ guys like Abbruzzese.

 

[The Masters]

put it on espn
they doing the rivarly show between avalanch and red wings

 

[ShaneFalco]

How many mistakes is he allowed to correct ??

As long as Shanny is in charge who knows. They seem pretty happy with themselves

 

[weems]

Yep, the Leafs number one tactical need is to find reliable solutions to break the park the bus defense against us. Either prevent the other team from setting up or find ways to break it.

I'm calling it now, but any time the Leafs are in a close game in the playoffs and you feel like they are dominating zone time and shot count while getting goalied, they are actually more likely to be in trouble than anything else. Bad signs to look for are repetitive cycles around the ozone, looking off mediocre shots for even worse shots, failing to find openings in the slot when coming out behind the net, hesitant, slow paced power play and sluggish movement along the blueline. These are all bad patterns that we are falling into a trap.

Toronto has scored just 2 rebound goals total the past 3 playoff series when playing 5v5 (1 vs TB, 1 vs MTL, 0 vs CLB)

TB just this playoff's alone scored a total of 10 rebound goals for 5v5
Colorado just this playoffs alone scored a total of 10 rebound goals for 5v5

The cup final with Dallas vs TB...

TB scored 11 rebound goals 5v5 on their run to a championship
Dallas scored 12 rebound goals 5v5 on their run to the finals

This is an exact quote from Moneypuck

"In general, the shots with the highest goal probability are quick rebounds shots close to the net where there has been a large change in shot angle from the original shot"

Makes sense as you're extremely close to the net and in many case's the goalie has no time to slide over and make the save.

The reasons for this could be argued but forsure this trend cannot continue if this team plans on winning a championship.

 

[Stephen]

Toronto has scored just 2 rebound goals total the past 3 playoff series when playing 5v5 (1 vs TB, 1 vs MTL, 0 vs CLB)

TB just this playoff's alone scored a total of 10 rebound goals for 5v5
Colorado just this playoffs alone scored a total of 10 rebound goals for 5v5

The cup final with Dallas vs TB...

TB scored 11 rebound goals 5v5 on their run to a championship
Dallas scored 12 rebound goals 5v5 on their run to the finals

This is an exact quote from Moneypuck

"In general, the shots with the highest goal probability are quick rebounds shots close to the net where there has been a large change in shot angle from the original shot"

Makes sense as you're extremely close to the net and in many case's the goalie has no time to slide over and make the save.

The reasons for this could be argued but forsure this trend cannot continue if this team plans on winning a championship.

They don't take the quick direct routes to the front of the net and they don't often stay there. When the other team parks the bus they waste zone time cycling around the perimeter looking for soft openings but don't realize that they're creating bad traffic with horrible body positioning and aren't facing the net to hunt rebounds. Think they need a back to basics voice on the coaching staff who can reset their mentality on the attack.

 

[Bomber0104]

Nothing less than a deep Cup run.

As should everyone's.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I say the leafs mortgage the future and do one mega cup run. Use picks and prospects to offload bad contracts. Even buy-outs if need be. Trade all picks/prospects you can for numerous years to get good cheap contracts.

If they succeed... that's great. We have a cup.

If it's the usual 1st round trainwreck, trade Marner and Nylander to re-mortgage the future. Then immediately sign Matthews to whatever he wants.

 

[horner]

Enjoy the regular season and crumble in the playoffs

 

[egd27]

They have lost in the first round 6 years in a row and I should lower my expectations……..to maybe 7 or 8 years in a row?

It's only 2 in row... 2020 wasn't the "first round."

 

[Marmoset]

Toronto has scored just 2 rebound goals total the past 3 playoff series when playing 5v5 (1 vs TB, 1 vs MTL, 0 vs CLB)

Assuming that is accurate, it is a remarkable statistic. It feels like you would almost have to make an effort to try and avoid getting rebounds to score so few goals this way.

It shouldn't be a surprise for them to be below average, but two goals in three series suggests either insanely bad luck, or a real problem with the way this team plays in the playoffs.

 

[weems]

Assuming that is accurate, it is a remarkable statistic. It feels like you would almost have to make an effort to try and avoid getting rebounds to score so few goals this way.

It shouldn't be a surprise for them to be below average, but two goals in three series suggests either insanely bad luck, or a real problem with the way this team plays in the playoffs.

Yep it's pretty crazy that the number is so low.

 

[Marmoset]

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Yep it's pretty crazy that the number is so low.

If I'm reading those stats correctly, it looks like several other teams had a similar situation, even including a team like NYR who did well this year. I'm not sure what this means. Maybe it means you can still win that way, but it's harder since I think MOST of the teams around the Leafs in these stats also had quick exits.

 

[weems]

If I'm reading those stats correctly, it looks like several other teams had a similar situation, even including a team like NYR who did well this year. I'm not sure what this means. Maybe it means you can still win that way, but it's harder since I think MOST of the teams around the Leafs in these stats also had quick exits.

Here are the leaders from those playoff seasons

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the record, we have more 5v5 rebound shots and expected rebound shots for than against over the past 3 playoffs, and we only allowed 1 rebound goal against Columbus and Montreal combined.

 

[weems]

For the record, we have more 5v5 rebound shots and expected rebound shots for than against over the past 3 playoffs, and we only allowed 1 rebound goal against Columbus and Montreal combined.

That's true but we've actually had a negative number with rebound shots for above expected in 2 out of the 3 series.

Expected rebounds are cool, but you actually have to go to those spots and get to the puck for the expected part to actualize.