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As a fan what is your "Realistic" expectation for next season? What you want?

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What is your expectation next season?

  • Cup Run -> Go All In

    Votes: 117 40.5%

  • Team makes playoffs -> Then whatever happens, it happens.

    Votes: 95 32.9%

  • Team will struggle to make playoffs

    Votes: 26 9.0%

  • Same management group -> I want them to take step back, retool and re-evaluate (cap, team, etc...)

    Votes: 5 1.7%

  • New management group -> I want them to take step back, retool and re-evaluate (cap, team, etc...)

    Votes: 39 13.5%

  • Other (post in thread)

    Votes: 7 2.4%
  • Total voters
    289
weems said:
That's true but we've actually had a negative number with rebound shots for above expected in 2 out of the 3 series. Expected rebounds are cool, but you actually have to go to those spots and get to the puck for the expected part to actualize.
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That's a bit misleading... We had the Columbus series where we had less rebound shots than expected, we had the Tampa series where we had more rebound shots than expected, and we had the Montreal series where we had an expected rebound shots of 13.01 and actual rebound shots of 13.00... I'm not sure we can draw conclusions from the 0.01 shot discrepancy from expected.

We also still have more actual rebound shots for than against too. I think it would be pretty natural for rebound shots to have been lower than expected when you're facing the #1 defensive team in the league and 0.950+ goaltending that's eating up everything thrown at them. That would logically have a lot more to do with it than our placement on the ice, especially since we tend to get a lot of net-front action.
 
Very good point…….t
egd27 said:
It's only 2 in row... 2020 wasn't the "first round." :D
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Very good point that makes it even worse. :)

Dekes For Days said:
For the record, we have more 5v5 rebound shots and expected rebound shots for than against over the past 3 playoffs, and we only allowed 1 rebound goal against Columbus and Montreal combined.
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Do expected rebound shots create expected goals…… or real goals
 
Dekes For Days said:
That's a bit misleading... We had the Columbus series where we had less rebound shots than expected, we had the Tampa series where we had more rebound shots than expected, and we had the Montreal series where we had an expected rebound shots of 13.01 and actual rebound shots of 13.00... I'm not sure we can draw conclusions from the 0.01 shot discrepancy from expected. And we've been improving that each year anyway.

We're also still getting more actual rebound shots for than against too. I think it would be pretty natural for rebound shots to have been lower than expected when you're facing the #1 defensive team in the league and 0.950+ goaltending that's eating up everything thrown at them. That would logically have a lot more to do with it than our placement on the ice, especially since we tend to get a lot of net-front action.
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It's not even a big issue if the expected rebound stat is a huge plus or that two of the three series we were negative and like you said one series by slimest margin (TB won cup last season with a -8.32 number).

The problem tho is that we have not been able to score rebound goals 5V5. We couldnt really do it against any of the three opponents and its the type of goal that has the highest probability rate of scoring.

Sure some of it could be the opposing goaltender but I'm not willing to believe that's the entire story.
 
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Dekes For Days said:
For the record, we have more 5v5 rebound shots and expected rebound shots for than against over the past 3 playoffs, and we only allowed 1 rebound goal against Columbus and Montreal combined.
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And Tampa?
 
Realistic: Collapse & lose in the 1st round of the playoffs

Idealistic: Win the 1st round of the playoffs
 
The Leafs are going to miss the playoffs. The reality will start setting in that Matthews is leaving. This team is in denial that it is in rebuild mode.
 
Racer88 said:
Here is a novel idea. With all due respect about we only count real shots and real goals…….I bet the cup winning fans aren’t counting expected goals and expected shots
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Ya work with what ya got.

Leafs have led the league in expected Cups each of the last five decades.
 
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I expect 100-120 points in the regular season

Matthews to have a 1.3-1-4 ppg
Marner to have a 1.3-1.4 ppg
Nylander to have a 0.85-1.0 ppg
Tavares to have a 0.85-1.0ppg
Rielly to have a 0.7-0.9ppg

However I see the same problems arising during the playoffs

Either:

A) the stars play very well through the first few games but in game 7 they don’t do enough and the “depth” does f*** all. Goalie let’s in weak goals like always

B) the stars struggle and the depth carry’s till game 7. Stars shit the bed, depth dries up. Goalie yet again let’s in weak goals

At this point I’m not even at the, they can prove me wrong point, because I know they won’t
 
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weems said:
Toronto has scored just 2 rebound goals total the past 3 playoff series when playing 5v5 (1 vs TB, 1 vs MTL, 0 vs CLB)

Makes sense as you're extremely close to the net and in many case's the goalie has no time to slide over and make the save.
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Yep. As soon as I saw in Game 7 that the Leafs spent the entire first period shooting pucks directly into Vassy's chest, I turned the game off. I knew it was going the same way every other Game 7 had gone the previous years: the Leafs were getting desperate and the kids started playing sloppy.

People want to blame the goalie and the defense and blah blah blah, but the reality is both goalies gave up 2 goals in that game. The blame lies squarely with the Leafs shooting low quality stinkers when they get desperate, and they've done this EVERY YEAR for the last few years. Shame, really. It looked like they had figured it out this year.
 
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PromisedLand said:
Yup its a summer thread!

Once again Leafs have gotten knocked out in the 1st round.

Just charting out some ideas about pros and cons:

Pros
  • Team hasn't missed playoffs for 6 years in a row
  • Team continuously in a race for first in the division
  • Had the best regular season (10 pt increment from the one under Lou/Babs)
  • Matthews won Hart, Lindsay and Rocket
  • Technically still have a goalie signed (Mrazek); so not going in blind
  • Wings, Habs and Sabres potentially still not in the race
  • Management: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe (according to some posters)


Cons
  • No #1G, No true #1D
  • Cap allocation still baffling (three guys with 11 AAV contracts)
  • Matthews, Marner, Nylander have NTCs/NMCs kick in at the end of next season
    • Matthews and Nylander will be pending UFAs in 2023-2024 season
    • Marner and Tavares pending UFAs in 2024-2025 season
  • No quality depth pieces available
  • Sens probably the only non-playoff team that might see significant improvement
    • Dark horse: Habs -> b/c MSL is awesome and Price maybe back full time and can potentially turn their season
  • Tampa is bound to lose Palat next season but can potentially ice the same roster as they have now
    • About same for Panthers
  • Management: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe (according to some posters)
    • Justin Holl (yes he is a freakin' CON)

Where do you see the Leafs? Whats your realistic expectation? What do you want them to do?
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I expect complete & utter FAILURE again by the Leafs. We have a good offence, but a mediocre D and no Goalie at all. We don't even seem to have a plan for a top defence or a Goalie right now. Oh sure, we will once again have some "regular season success", but once it gets real in the post season? Gonna be a shitshow. Again.
 
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Holymakinaw said:
I expect complete & utter FAILURE again by the Leafs. We have a good offence, but a mediocre D and no Goalie at all. We don't even seem to have a plan for a top defence or a Goalie right now. Oh sure, we will once again have some "regular season success", but once it gets real in the post season? Gonna be a shitshow. Again.
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Yup
 
Tuttle said:
I'd like to see Dubas and Keefe fired. Shanny I could go either way.
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Me too. But why does Shanahan get a pass? Too many opportunities, same result. Loved him as a player and always wished he played for the Leafs, but I don't feel he has done anything noteworthy as management. I think he took a gamble on Dubas, and in my eyes lost big time. I don't care about the regular season success, because it doesn't mean anything. Shanahan was gifted the best player ever, in our long team history, and it seems its all for nothing.
 
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Players I'd like to see return:

Matthews
Marner,
Nylander,
Tavares,
Bunting,
Engvall

Lilly,
Sandin,
Giordano

Campbell,
Kallgren

Mostly, the top 4 forwards did their job this year, the other 2 were alright and provided value. The other forwards while reasonably productive during the regular season provide little value in the playoffs, especially Kerfoot and Mikheyev.

If Rielly isn't scoring or moving the puck, his d play irks me, no physicality, gap control iffy, generally more a rover than d-man and for 7.5 mil. TO needs more. Muzzin and Brodie are simply aging out, both play better d than Rielly but since they aren't much at moving the puck, the puck spends more time in TO's zone than what should be necessary for guys who are as well paid as them. If Holl had any physicality I'd be happy to see him remain a Leaf, right now his greatest value is how much he's paid and how much more Keefe trusts him over Lilly and Sandin. Lyubushkin, plays physical but I question his hockey IQ in all situations but again a player Keefe prefers to Lily and Sandin.

I like Campbell and if TO can make the $s work I hope he remains. I don't get Mrazek, he's been around forever but he's that bad, why did Dubbie sign him? Kallgren's stats weren't great but he was a rookie and pressed into service late in the year when there wasn't any possibility to ease him in, maybe this year without so much pressure he'll have more opportunity to be sheltered until he demonstrates he's ready.

Of course I know what I want isn't going to happen.
 
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the squared circle said:
Me too. But why does Shanahan get a pass? Too many opportunities, same result. Loved him as a player and always wished he played for the Leafs, but I don't feel he has done anything noteworthy as management. I think he took a gamble on Dubas, and in my eyes lost big time. I don't care about the regular season success, because it doesn't mean anything. Shanahan was gifted the best player ever, in our long team history, and it seems its all for nothing.
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True - he shouldn't. He's responsible and it's been 8 years
 
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hobarth said:
Players I'd like to see return:

Matthews
Marner,
Nylander,
Tavares,
Bunting,
Engvall

Lilly,
Sandin,
Giordano

Campbell,
Kallgren

Mostly, the top 4 forwards did their job this year, the other 2 were alright and provided value. The other forwards while reasonably productive during the regular season provide little value in the playoffs, especially Kerfoot and Mikheyev.

If Rielly isn't scoring or moving the puck, his d play irks me, no physicality, gap control iffy, generally more a rover than d-man and for 7.5 mil. TO needs more. Muzzin and Brodie are simply aging out, both play better d than Rielly but since they aren't much at moving the puck, the puck spends more time in TO's zone than what should be necessary for guys who are as well paid as them. If Holl had any physicality I'd be happy to see him remain a Leaf, right now his greatest value is how much he's paid and how much more Keefe trusts him over Lilly and Sandin. Lyubushkin, plays physical but I question his hockey IQ in all situations but again a player Keefe prefers to Lily and Sandin.

I like Campbell and if TO can make the $s work I hope he remains. I don't get Mrazek, he's been around forever but he's that bad, why did Dubbie sign him? Kallgren's stats weren't great but he was a rookie and pressed into service late in the year when there wasn't any possibility to ease him in, maybe this year without so much pressure he'll have more opportunity to be sheltered until he demonstrates he's ready.

Of course I know what I want isn't going to happen.
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I agree with most of this, but would keep Kampf.

And I know Rielly is their rover.
 
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