Around the NHL 2024-25 regular season

[Forge]

Cap space is tight enough this season, I don't think I want to spend what we have on Saad with an extra year next season.

 

[dgibb10]

Not sure if "credit" would be the word I would use, but Verbeek is trying to restructure their blue line which was imbalanced. Despite having the palm tree advantage, I don't know if Anaheim is really a free agent destination right now. Verbeek pursued Stamkos/Marchessault but might have dodged a bullet there.

I thought Seattle overpaid for Montour and Anaheim would have had to offer more because of the state tax. As others said, I don't think Pesce would have considered Anaheim. Chicago would probably like a refund on Brodie/Martinez to this point.

Anaheim had a plethora of young D, trading Fowler just allows somebody like Mintyukov or Zellweger to not have to play the right side. Maybe surprisingly Anaheim is middle of the pack in GA, it's their offense (31st in GF) that's been letting them down. Their special teams isn't great, PP is 29th and PK is 27th. At least in theory Trouba should help their PK2 unit while the dropoff from Fowler to one of their young kids on the PP shouldn't be that big.

Brodie and martinez have been good in chi. Certainly both better than Trouba

Chi's problem at this point is their forward core. They can't finish for shit and bedard hasn't taken the step they've needed him to

The Ducks are not competing any time soon, signing big UFA contracts today only hurts their roster flexibility tomorrow. Getting short-term stopgaps for basically free is exactly what they should be doing, especially when they're guys they could conceivably flip at the deadline in a year or two.

Fowler is not really a functional NHL defenseman anymore, he's just coasting off his name and reputation from 10 years ago. Trouba is mediocre and overpaid but he can at least do some things and provide some positive impact.

Fowler + Vakkanainen + 4th + 4th for Trouba + Biakabutuka + 2nd is good business, makes them better now while also improving their draft capital.

Forgetting about 8 million dollars in that calculation.

 

[dgibb10]

He didn't sign that contract, so I don't really think that argument holds water. Do you think the Devils trading for Subban at 9M per affected negotiations with future free agents? I guess Shero was out the door by the time that mattered, but I don't think trading for a player has much bearing on anything - the days of guys walking out of camp because the Devils acquired Scott Stevens are over.

You tell me, we had to pay 5 mill for a 30 point wayne simmonds.

I think a good agent will use any and all comps available if they can.

You valued trouba as a positive on this contract or you thought this player was worth this in UFA.

 

[Guttersniped]

Pesce.

Or Roy

Or Montour

Or if you want to go short term. Brodie and Martinez at 7.75 mill combined

They weren’t getting Pesce, Roy or Montour. Who knows what players they tried but failed to signed.

Not sure some of a 30 year old on a lengthy deal is the right player for them right now anyway.

And short term they should have gotten two older, now bad defensemen, because why?

The 34 year old cooked Brodie is on the Hawks 3rd pair and the 37 year old Martinez is injured. Boy did the Ducks miss out there.

Trouba costs 6m in actual salary. The cap hit is meaningless to the Ducks next year.

They need cap flexibility for when they need to start paying their players.

 

[dgibb10]

They weren’t getting Pesce, Roy or Montour. Who knows what players they tried to but failed to signed.

Not sure some of a 30 year old on a lengthy deal is the right player for them right now anyway.

And short term they should have gotten two older, now bad defensemen, because why?

The 34 year old cooked Brodie is on the Hawks 3rd pair and the 37 year old Martinez is injured. Boy did the Ducks miss out there.

Trouba costs 6m in actual salary. The cap hit is meaningless to the Ducks next year.

They need cap flexibility for when they need to start paying their players.

Why does it have to be a lengthy deal?

I was told about 100 times the cap and money doesn't matter, just getting a good player.

I value all of those guys at LEAST 2-3 mill more than trouba.

You go offer them a 2 year deal at a massive AAV a la Orlov in Carolina (except bigger if you need to) before you take trouba at 8.

I'd rather have Brett Pesce at 12x2 than Trouba at 8x2.

I know saying really big numbers mill is scary in UFA for some reason, but let me ask you a question.

Would you give up the next 2 years of Brett Pesce for a 75% retained Jacob Trouba?

 

[Triumph]

You tell me, we had to pay 5 mill for a 30 point wayne simmonds.

I think a good agent will use any and all comps available if they can.

You valued trouba as a positive on this contract or you thought this player was worth this in UFA.

$5M for one year. I guarantee Simmonds had lots of longer deals that would've ultimately netted him far more money that he passed on to sign that one.

The thing is that Trouba does stuff that almost nobody does in this league anymore. He hurts people on purpose. Not a ton of that going around.

 

[Triumph]

Why does it have to be a lengthy deal?

I was told about 100 times the cap and money doesn't matter, just getting a good player.

I value all of those guys at LEAST 2-3 mill more than trouba.

You go offer them a 2 year deal at a massive AAV a la Orlov in Carolina (except bigger if you need to) before you take trouba at 8.

I'd rather have Brett Pesce at 12x2 than Trouba at 8x2.

I know saying really big numbers mill is scary in UFA for some reason, but let me ask you a question.

Would you give up the next 2 years of Brett Pesce for a 75% retained Jacob Trouba?

The thing you seem to be missing in this is that min-maxing as the Ducks isn't going to get them into the playoffs or anywhere close. They're 12th in the Conference and effectively 7 points out of a playoff spot right now. Where does Pesce at 12M get them over the nothing/Trouba they've been using? A win better? Okay so they're 5 points out - hooray.

Orlov took the huge short deal in Carolina. Carolina was coming off a trip to the Conference Finals. The Ducks haven't made the playoffs in 6 years. It's going to be 7 after this one.

 

[Guttersniped]

Why does it have to be a lengthy deal?

I was told about 100 times the cap and money doesn't matter, just getting a good player.

I value all of those guys at LEAST 2-3 mill more than trouba.

You go offer them a 2 year deal at a massive AAV a la Orlov in Carolina (except bigger if you need to) before you take trouba at 8.

I know saying really big numbers mill is scary in UFA for some reason, but let me ask you a question.

Would you give up the next 2 years of Brett Pesce for a 75% retained Jacob Trouba?

Orlov went to a great team. Klingberg tried that
trick with Anaheim and how did that work out?

And Klingberg only did that out of desperation on July 29. The guys you mentioned got the 6-7 year deals they wanted on July 1.

If I was any of those defensemen I would take those longer deals over a short term deal with a shit team everytime.

Their numbers would take a huge hit on a team with bad team defense. That would make getting a good contract in the future potentially much more difficult.

For example, Montour’s career was derailed by playing on a shit Buffalo squad before being revived in Florida.

With Montour Florida got a guy who scored 73 points for them on a 3 year/3.5m deal because he came from a team where careers, particularly for defensemen, go to die.

Let me ask you a question, why the hell would Brett Pesce sign a 2 year deal with the Ducks? To make a few more bucks over those 2 years?

I don’t believe we were the highest bidder with him, so I don’t see how that sort of offer would matter. He wanted to come back to Tri-State area and wants to win.

 

[dgibb10]

The thing you seem to be missing in this is that min-maxing as the Ducks isn't going to get them into the playoffs or anywhere close. They're 12th in the Conference and effectively 7 points out of a playoff spot right now. Where does Pesce at 12M get them over the nothing/Trouba they've been using? A win better? Okay so they're 5 points out - hooray.

Orlov took the huge short deal in Carolina. Carolina was coming off a trip to the Conference Finals. The Ducks haven't made the playoffs in 6 years. It's going to be 7 after this one.

Well, if you never make any moves that help you get out of the dumpster, you'll stay there forever, and people will keep making excuses for why it's okay that you haven't spent money well because it doesn't matter.

In terms of Pesce? Multiple wins of value and just look at what he's done as a partner for Luke Hughes.

You know how NJD made the playoffs in 22-23?

By being effective with the money and assets they spent.

Graves.
Siegenthaler.
Marino.
Hamilton.


Every good move you make gets you slightly closer to being a good team again. If you don't hold a GM to the standard of making effective, +value moves, then you'll accept being shit for a while.

 

[Guttersniped]

Well, if you never make any moves that help you get out of the dumpster, you'll stay there forever, and people will keep making excuses for why it's okay that you haven't spent money well because it doesn't matter.

In terms of Pesce? Multiple wins of value and just look at what he's done as a partner for Luke Hughes.

You know how NJD made the playoffs in 22-23?

By being effective with the money and assets they spent.

Graves.
Siegenthaler.
Marino.
Hamilton.


Every good move you make gets you slightly closer to being a good team again. If you don't hold a GM to the standard of making effective, +value moves, then you'll accept being shit for a while.

Remember that we got Graves and Siegenthaler thanks to the Seattle expansion draft in July 2021. You could protect 3 defensemen:

Colorado: Girard, Makar, Toews
Washington: Carlson, Orlov, Trevor Van Riemsdyk
New Jersey: Severson, Graves, Siegenthaler

But People don’t have to defend every move the Ducks make in order to defend the Trouba move here.

I’m sure they could do some things better but Trouba isn’t a bad move in itself. They need RHD. They have a lot of young PMD and Trouba brings a different element, experience and leadership.

Other teams, like Columbus, wanted Trouba too. The Rangers were never going to have an issue dumping him if they could get him agree to go.

 

[Triumph]

Well, if you never make any moves that help you get out of the dumpster, you'll stay there forever, and people will keep making excuses for why it's okay that you haven't spent money well because it doesn't matter.

In terms of Pesce? Multiple wins of value and just look at what he's done as a partner for Luke Hughes.

You know how NJD made the playoffs in 22-23?

By being effective with the money and assets they spent.

Graves.
Siegenthaler.
Marino.
Hamilton.


Every good move you make gets you slightly closer to being a good team again. If you don't hold a GM to the standard of making effective, +value moves, then you'll accept being shit for a while.

Yeah, I know how the Devils made the playoffs in 22-23 - do you know how they missed them in the previous 4 seasons, all of them by quite a lot? By not having enough young, effective talent. Shero tried to build a team on top of a pile of sand in 2019 and Nico, Jack, Bratt, and Zacha were just not quite there yet.

The Devils spent the pick they got from trading Andy Greene for Graves, they spent the 3rd rounder from the Hall trade on Siegenthaler, and they spent a 3rd and their former 1st round pick from 2018 on Marino. Part of why they felt comfortable making these moves is that they had a surplus of draft picks from 2020.

So yeah, I grant that the Ducks should be farther along in their rebuild than they are, and that they're rebuilding quite poorly, and probably making bad decisions at the draft table besides. They're still really, really bad and even three efficient moves isn't going to change that.

 

[dgibb10]

Orlov went to a great team. Klingberg tried that
trick with Anaheim and how did that work out?

And Klingberg only did that out of desperation on July 29. The guys you mentioned got the 6-7 year deals they wanted on July 1.

If I was any of those defensemen I would take those longer deals over a short term deal with a shit team everytime.

Their numbers would take a huge hit on a team with bad team defense. That would make getting a good contract in the future potentially much more difficult.

For example, Montour’s career was derailed by playing on a shit Buffalo squad before being revived in Florida.

With Montour Florida got a guy who scored 73 points for them on a 3 year/3.5m deal because he came from a team where careers, particularly for defensemen, go to die.

Let me ask you a question, why the hell would Brett Pesce sign a 2 year deal with the Ducks? To make a few more bucks over those 2 years?

I don’t believe we were the highest bidder with him, so I don’t see how that sort of offer would matter. He wanted to come back to Tri-State area and wants to win.

Do you believe seattle (WITHOUT montour) is meaningfully better than Anaheim? I don't.

And perhaps if you make better moves in the past, you can slowly get yourself out of being a shithole nobody wants to sign with.

Moves have got to start somewhere. Anaheim is likely working with a limited budget, so money poorly spent imo is even MORE wasteful.

Also, I'm sorry but this "we can't get anyone to sign" is a weak excuse. If you can't negotiate to attract free agents, you need a new GM.

Look how AZ+Utah built their dcore from shit as an undesirable location.

+EV move to find Durzi
+EV move to find Vaalimaki
Grabbing an elite D with 8.5 mill in sergachev.
And grabbing a marino
stopgaps as guys like Cole and Maataa who aren't ridiculous AAVs

And as the prospects come in and improve, they come into a quality core that ALSO has a future attached with it.

Look at NJD

+EV move to find siegs
+EV move to grab graves
+EV move to grab Marino
Using the big space not to pay for a trouba, but to get a Dougie f***ing Hamilton.

And that hand built core (not the prospects), is what brought us to the playoffs.
And then as the prospects come in they came into a competent core that ALSO had a future attached to it.


Yeah, Verbeek grabbed klingberg. A bad choice. If he had made an effective choice maybe they'd be in a better spot today. Maybe going after the right Strome brother (or both) would have him in a much better spot today.

Personally, I'd rather make the Hamilton move than the Subban move. Sometimes you gotta take a risk and offer some term

 

[dgibb10]

Remember that we got Graves and Siegenthaler thanks to the Seattle expansion draft in July 2021. You could protect 3 defensemen:

Colorado: Girard, Makar, Toews
Washington: Carlson, Orlov, Trevor Van Riemsdyk
New Jersey: Severson, Graves, Siegenthaler

But People don’t have to defend every move the Ducks make in order to defend the Trouba move here.

I’m sure they could do some things better but Trouba isn’t a bad move in itself. They need RHD. They have a lot of young PMD and Trouba brings a different element, experience and leadership.

Other teams, like Columbus, wanted Trouba too. The Rangers were never going to have an issue dumping him if they could get him agree to go.

Speaking of CBJ, a guy they should have tried to grab instead of trouba was Fabbro. There's a +EV move right there

Yeah, I know how the Devils made the playoffs in 22-23 - do you know how they missed them in the previous 4 seasons, all of them by quite a lot? By not having enough young, effective talent. Shero tried to build a team on top of a pile of sand in 2019 and Nico, Jack, Bratt, and Zacha were just not quite there yet.

The Devils spent the pick they got from trading Andy Greene for Graves, they spent the 3rd rounder from the Hall trade on Siegenthaler, and they spent a 3rd and their former 1st round pick from 2018 on Marino. Part of why they felt comfortable making these moves is that they had a surplus of draft picks from 2020.

So yeah, I grant that the Ducks should be farther along in their rebuild than they are, and that they're rebuilding quite poorly, and probably making bad decisions at the draft table besides. They're still really, really bad and even three efficient moves isn't going to change that.

Yes, Shero was the one grabbing the Troubas (PK Subban).

 

[tailfins]

Speaking of CBJ, a guy they should have tried to grab instead of trouba was Fabbro. There's a +EV move right there

They did, I think?

 

[dgibb10]

They did, I think?

Sorry, I should rephrase.

Speaking of CBJ, a guy Anaheim should have tried to grab instead of trouba was Fabbro (who CBJ grabbed smartly).

That move is going to accelerate things for them. Unfortunate that Jiricek was so impatient tho.

Although tbf Christianson, Johnson, and Harris had no business being in the lineup over him, so he has a point.

 

[Triumph]

The biggest thing the Trouba move does, fwiw, is almost certainly keep the Ducks above the salary floor, which they were in danger of being below after the trade deadline. While it might've been possible for them to trade for something like Backstrom or Oshie, this at least gives them a roster player and something that might be worth something next year.

Yes, Shero was the one grabbing the Troubas (PK Subban).

In the reality where the Devils sign a Hamilton-level player in 2019, how does that ultimately help NJ? They finished way below the playoffs for the next 3 seasons. They even wasted Dougie's first season (albeit he was awful when he came back from the jaw injury).