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GDT: Around the League - 2021/22 PART III

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Mess said:
Rask returned to action yesterday and was named a game star in a Boston 3-2 win over Philly. So that leaves it as only 1 game in hand and 5 points separating Leafs and Bruins now. Tampa Bay also won yesterday.

We are no longer in that cushy of the all CDN North Div. as the Atlantic has some of the best teams in the NHL. This is going to be 4 horse race between the Leafs , TB, Boston and Florida with one team likely ended up as a wild card team just to get in.

Losses to teams you should beat will take their toll on the race's outcome.
Click to expand...

Eastern conference has quite the gap between the last wild card spot and the teams not in a fight for a wild card spot.

Columbus at .500 is closest to the last wild care team the .647 Bruins.

If Leafs don't retain their .700 pace and fall out of the last wild card spot they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

All you have to do is get an invite and with a good keeper can go as far as your talent takes you.
 
ULF_55 said:
Eastern conference has quite the gap between the last wild card spot and the teams not in a fight for a wild card spot.

Columbus at .500 is closest to the last wild care team the .647 Bruins.

If Leafs don't retain their .700 pace and fall out of the last wild card spot they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

All you have to do is get an invite and with a good keeper can go as far as your talent takes you.
Click to expand...

90% of Leafs hopes lie on the shoulders of Jack Campbell and his outstanding play is carrying and will carry them as far as he can.

The concern being he has an injury history of the past and never played more than 31 games (25 starts) in any previous season and we are now just hitting his former ceiling 27 games played (26 starts) so we're now entering new territory and wondering how many games he can play this year and if he can stay healthy :crossfing

To me Campbell who is among the leaders of the NHL in [goals saved above expected] [ NHL Goalie Statistics ] ie . stealing the Leafs points in the standings, and among the very best in sv% and GAA is the #1 reason the reason Leafs are cruising at .700 pace and where they currently sit in the playoff race. He has been the most pleasant semi-unexpected surprise this year in what was suppose to be 1A and 1B tandem and shared net.
 
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Mess said:
90% of Leafs hopes lie on the shoulders of Jack Campbell and his outstanding play is carrying and will carry them as far as he can.

The concern being he has an injury history of the past and never played more than 31 games (25 starts) in any previous season and we are now just hitting his former ceiling 27 games played (26 starts) so we're now entering new territory and wondering how many games he can play this year and if he can stay healthy :crossfing

To me Campbell who is among the leaders of the NHL in [goals saved above expected] [ NHL Goalie Statistics ] ie . stealing the Leafs points in the standings, and among the very best in sv% and GAA is the #1 reason the reason Leafs are cruising at .700 pace and where they currently sit in the playoff race. He has been the most pleasant semi-unexpected surprise this year in what was suppose to be 1A and 1B tandem and shared net.
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Yeah, getting a couple #1 centers is really something not every team has.
I'm not sold on any of their defenders really be a true #1 , Rielly may be their best offensive defender, but he's just good on the defensive side.
If Price stays healthy he could lead the team to the SCF.
Price can even lead his team to wins over some of the best American teams.
Goaltending is such a large part of a team.
Tampa might not have their last 2 Cups without Valsilevkiy.
You definitely want your goaltender healthy when the playoffs roll around.
 
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ULF_55 said:
Yeah, getting a couple #1 centers is really something not every team has.
I'm not sold on any of their defenders really be a true #1 , Rielly may be their best offensive defender, but he's just good on the defensive side.
If Price stays healthy he could lead the team to the SCF.
Price can even lead his team to wins over some of the best American teams.
Goaltending is such a large part of a team.
Tampa might not have their last 2 Cups without Valsilevkiy.
You definitely want your goaltender healthy when the playoffs roll around.
Click to expand...

Defense wins championships.

"Good teams are built from the goalie out, through strong defense and strength down the middle".

Leafs are getting outstanding goaltending from Campbell [
upload_2022-1-14_8-7-19.png
], they currently sit at 5th in goals against (thanks to Campbell mainly) [
upload_2022-1-14_8-7-33.png
] and have 2 X #1C [
upload_2022-1-14_8-7-46.png
].

The Leafs currently have the pieces in place, but you pointed out the weak link the Leafs defense where Justin Holl is the #4 and if either Rielly or Muzzin got hurt for and extended time Leafs Dcore would not hold up and Campbell can't continue to bail them out (and must stay healthy himself).

Leafs really need a solid top 4 Dman that pushes Holl into a bottom pairing role and spare part with the kids Sandin, Dermott and Liljegren,
 
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Mess said:
they currently sit at 5th in goals against (thanks to Campbell mainly) The Leafs currently have the pieces in place, but you pointed out the weak link the Leafs defense where Justin Holl is the #4 and if either Rielly or Muzzin got hurt for and extended time Leafs Dcore would not hold up and Campbell can't continue to bail them out
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They are 3rd in goals against, not 5th - which is a combination of both Campbell and our team of skaters putting up the 6th best defensive results in the league. Our defense is strong, and Campbell is not "bailing us out".
 
Dekes For Days said:
They are 3rd in goals against, not 5th - which is a combination of both Campbell and our team of skaters putting up the 6th best defensive results in the league. Our defense is strong, and Campbell is not "bailing us out".
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yep.

And hey, ever since Keefe took over 138gms ago:

#6: 2.57 expected goals against per 60
#8: 2.71 goals against per 60
#9: 90.83% save percentage


by Keefe season:

Year 1:

#9: 2.67 expected goals against per 60
#17: 3.01 goals against per 60
#20: 90.25% save percentage

Year 2:

#6: 2.42 expected goals against per 60
#8: 2.62 goals against per 60
#15: 90.51% save percentage

Year 3:

#6: 2.67 expected goals against per 60
#3: 2.46 goals against per 60
#2: 92.06% save percentage
 
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zeke said:
yep.

And hey, ever since Keefe took over 138gms ago:

#6: 2.57 expected goals against per 60
#8: 2.71 goals against per 60
#9: 90.83% save percentage


by Keefe season:

Year 1:

#9: 2.67 expected goals against per 60
#17: 3.01 goals against per 60
#20: 90.25% save percentage

Year 2:

#6: 2.42 expected goals against per 60
#8: 2.62 goals against per 60
#15: 90.51% save percentage

Year 3:

#6: 2.67 expected goals against per 60
#3: 2.46 goals against per 60
#2: 92.06% save percentage
Click to expand...
Don't those stats show that the leafs defense hasn't actually changed that much in the 3 years hence the fairly consistent expected goals with the actual goals against dropping significantly due to Campbell's stellar play?
 
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This could change after the moves at the trade deadline and as injuries accrue, but as of now it doesn't look like there is an easy out in the East. Any of the 8 that make it could take it all, including Pitt, Bos or even NYR if Shesterkin is healthy.

Very different from the West, where only 2-4 teams have a realistic chance.
 
Kurtz said:
This could change after the moves at the trade deadline and as injuries accrue, but as of now it doesn't look like there is an easy out in the East. Any of the 8 that make it could take it all, including Pitt, Bos or even NYR if Shesterkin is healthy.

Very different from the West, where only 2-4 teams have a realistic chance.
Click to expand...

So Colorado is going to add to their Cup Count?
 
Ziggdiezan said:
Don't those stats show that the leafs defense hasn't actually changed that much in the 3 years hence the fairly consistent expected goals with the actual goals against dropping significantly due to Campbell's stellar play?
Click to expand...

yeah it shows the effects that poor-then-middling-then-great goaltending has had on consistently very good defense, sure.

i probably should split up the defensive metrics between even strength and penalty kill before we go too much deeper though.
 
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ULF_55 said:
So Colorado is going to add to their Cup Count?
Click to expand...

They're the Vegas favourites, but they still have to get through a very imposing Vegas team. Also I think Minny's style might be a problem for them.
 
Mess said:
90% of Leafs hopes lie on the shoulders of Jack Campbell and his outstanding play is carrying and will carry them as far as he can.
Click to expand...

Fairly sure that happens with literally every Cup Contender ever, even the ones who are great at other positions.

And there have been far worse goalies who have led teams to a Cup than Campbell. Even in the past 5 Championships, Matt Murray and Jordan Binnington had accomplished far less than Campbell has to this point in his career. Binnington was on waivers and was slated to be an AHL backup to start the year that he won his Cup. Garret Sparks looked better than him at that point.

If we want to extend it to teams that made the Finals but lost, Khudobin wasn't even Dallas' starter for most of the year before taking Dallas to the Finals. Martin Jones, in his first year as a starter in his entire career, took San Jose to their first ever Stanley Cup Final. Before arriving in San Jose, he only had 34 games of NHL experience.

It's not even like Campbell is masking a bad defense. Our defense is amazing in their own right. It is just the first time in who knows how long that the Leafs have had both a great goalie and a great defense (never mind a top notch offense) rolling at the same time.
 
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garce said:
Wow, I knew it was bad, but when it's laid out like that.... Katz had better wake up and flush all the glory day oilers and old time hockey men out of his realm or the Oilers are going to waste McDavid.
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still one of the weird ass moments in hockey I've seen is when katz did that knighting....for mcdavid? when they wont he lottery still was very awkward.
 
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Kurtz said:
They're the Vegas favourites, but they still have to get through a very imposing Vegas team. Also I think Minny's style might be a problem for them.
Click to expand...
Goaltending is a ? as is their soft D, but if they cant beat an even softer Vegas team they should start over.
 
I honestly do not give a shit where we place in the division. It would be nice to avoid Tampa. Whether that happens by finishing 2nd or 3rd or 4th and going through the Metro...which would be perfectly fine with me. We are going to be in the playoffs so all this moaning about Boston is a waste of bandwidth. There is no scenario where we have an "easy" first round matchup.
 
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TheBeastCoast said:
I honestly do not give a shit where we place in the division. It would be nice to avoid Tampa. Whether that happens by finishing 2nd or 3rd or 4th and going through the Metro...which would be perfectly fine with me. We are going to be in the playoffs so all this moaning about Boston is a waste of bandwidth. There is no scenario where we have an "easy" first round matchup.
Click to expand...

Leafs showed last year that having the easiest first round matchup on paper means very little.

Get in and fight your own first round demons. The opponent shouldn't matter.
 
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