So I have a sports analytics blog that I don't market and not even my mom reads, but it's fun. Coming off a year and a half of writer's block I came up with another project idea. The Lightning just won back to back cups and were the second team to do that since 98. There was a gap between 98 and 2016. So I wanted to calculate using win %s what were the odds these teams wouldn't have won the cup. I used only regulation win percentages because there's no 3 on 3, 4 on 4, or shootout in the playoffs. I started in 99-00, because in 98-99 a team was looking for a threepeat, not a repeat. I also assumed that any series won was 100% probability. So the 99-00 Stars' probability of winning the cup is just the probability of beating the Devils, not going through the whole process since we know they won the first three series. Finally, I kept it at conference seeding and in the last 3 years didn't change it to the wildcard format that's really complicated, but that really only affected 15-16, because 13-14 the Blackhawks made it to the WCF so we knew the matchup and in 14-15 the Kings missed the playoffs. So the final output is the probability that none of these teams would have won the cup accounting for the series they've won. The method used was looking at head to head meetings and the probability that teams would win in 4, 5, 6, and 7. Anyway, please be kind, this took A LOT of effort even though it was just a week's worth of work.
