Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

WinterLion

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Oct 1, 2017
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Yeah I agree... I think he could be 4th or 5th best player on our AHL team when we win the cup...

But seriously... where the hell is Adam Nicholas? I think Slaf needs some extra sessions
 

Breakfast of Champs

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Apr 15, 2007
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MacKinnon in his D+3 and D+4 seasons was a 50 point player and there was lots of talk about being a bust/disappointment for a 1st OA pick. Patience isn't just for 2nd round picks.
If someone told most of these doomers during the first half of last year that Slaf already had a 20 goal / 50 pt season under his belt most wouldn't belive it and some would probably suggest it was 3-5 years away.

Point is that he severely overperformed last year, especially in the 2nd half and now some in the fanbase got waaay ahead of themselves and expected him to take another leap. We know he has the skills, we've seen him be a great player. He's 20 years old and he needs time to adapt to changes and gain consistency.

48 pts at 20 isn't even bad, and he isn't playing well , it just goes to show when he gets it clicking he's capable of a lot more. I wouldn't even count out a big 2nd half again
 

Paddyjack

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Dec 10, 2007
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Yeah.... We will be in serious problem if a 19 years old Demidov outperform a 21 1OV Slaf in his first season in the NHL. We do need him to be a power forward beast for the success of this team. With the way the team is playing, we won't have another top 5 pick for a long time. If we want to win the stanley cup, We need Slaf to be a elite player in the NHL.
Partly disagree. The comparable is not Demidov, even at 19 Demidov is clearly a more skilled forward by a 100 miles. It's like saying Slaf would be in trouble because Bedard is a better player. Slaf is predicted as a 30-40 power forward where his size and grit will make space to his linemates, and this is a part of his game not measured in points total. But, he will be in trouble next year if he is still not doing this kind of game, and yes, we will be in trouble if he never goes back to playing like that.
 

Rapala

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Mar 29, 2013
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My point is that Heineman was not even in our top 10 for the Habs prospect rankings. Fast forward to January and he's now better than Slafkovsky. I like Heineman but the thought is a little ridiculous. I'm not making excuses on Slaf's current play but I think patience is needed
Oh I know.
I think Slaf needs a reset so we have to slot someone in there if we do it.
Heineman is simply one of those guys you can plug in and know what you get.
I'm on record as saying I'm not worried about his contract he'll figure things out and we have the resources to help him.
 
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morhilane

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Did he really get "a talking to" or did he get a motivational talk? Which one seems more likely with this coaching staff? So he was benched for a bit, I heard someone say he was rubbing his knee in a video, he looked upset, etc etc. We don't really know what's going on. We shouldn't panic until next season when the contract actually kicks in. He had a bad game and his confidence looks low out there. He's gonna turn it around but it might take a bit of time and it could be a bit of a bumpy road.
I will continue to say that he's not 100% physically, he has some recurring discomfort that impact his skating/leg strength. He was faster last year and in pre-season moving from A to B.

Then you add that he lost weight and trained this summer to improve his skating speed. I think he might have overtrained and he's feeling the backlash of that.
 
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Habnot

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Are you really watching the games this year? he's falling all over the ice and his puck retrieval has been dismal. Last year you would be correct, but he is not winning the battles this year at all and is often on his ass for some reason. When was the last time you remember Slaf letting a one-timer go or a slapshot that hit the net? I know he's lost his spot on the circle to Cole and Laine, but his first thought is 'pass' instead of a shot. He's a different player this year
Moving the goal posts aren't we....he has never been a shooter, not even last year and he is no a featured shot on PP or with his line.

A recent example of his puck retrieval/passing - against Vegas - Caufield goal. Creates the forechecking turnover, makes the important pass to Suzuki. He is one of the few on this team that does this constantly, even MSL points this out.

Also, against Chicago he played nearly 20 minutes. Maybe he back to back in Denver impacted him more that others. Again we just expect that Slaf plays like a generational 1st over all - which he never will. He's just a 20 year old big guy carrying 220 lbs unlike some of the smaller players. I think the schedule in the last two weeks has impacted him more that other.
 

RationalExpectations

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May 12, 2019
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At the risk of paying significantly more for the last 5 years of the contract. Time will tell whether the risk was worth taking or not, but as a general principle there's nothing wrong with taking that type of risk.
I don t know about this, if there has been one team paying huge Dollar for Young players who have not proven anything, it is BUF and it has not been paying dividends yet…
 

Naslundforever

43-67-110
Aug 21, 2015
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If you think they are random players, then Slaf is probably a lost cause for you at 20 years old.
All the names I posted were highly touted young players/prospects... I assumed most people here follow young players around the NHL, not just Habs players right....
All of them are still struggling and are having bad /subpar season so far. All of them are ranging from 19 to 22 except for Lafrenière who's already 23 years and still struggling.

If you want to give up on a 20 years old first overall kid who's still probably the first/second best player of his draft class then go ahead and start panicking, but reality is, Slafkovsky will still be developing until 25-26 years old. He's a long term project, not a Sydney Crosby.
There’s a difference between giving up and the very real eye test that he is playing horribly right now. Like on my tv when there’s hockey on.

Incidentally it took one shift with Evans on the 1st for them to look and play like adult pro hockey players. Poor Suzuki, finally.
 

Habs

Jake Evans will steal your wife
Feb 28, 2002
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Moving the goal posts aren't we....he has never been a shooter, not even last year and he is no a featured shot on PP or with his line.

No I'm not moving them at all, I really find his O zone play bad this year, and I'm shocked you don't either to be honest. He has a very heavy shot and his first two years would let his one-timer fly when available. I don't want him to be a playmaker, that size and shot .. he needs to score and drive the net. Let Cole setup on the outside, I could see Slaf on the point setting up the play and shooting. He has a great shot!
 

Naslundforever

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Aug 21, 2015
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I will continue to say that he's not 100% physically, he has some recurring discomfort that impact his skating/leg strength. He was faster last year and in pre-season moving from A to B.

Then you add that he lost weight and trained this summer to improve his skating speed. I think he might have overtrained and he's feeling the backlash of that.
And cold-starting from an upright dead-stop all the time is jarring on the body unlike being low and in motion. Always has to explode + he has shit balance compared to other big guys on the boards.
 

Rapala

Registered User
Mar 29, 2013
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Montreal
If someone told most of these doomers during the first half of last year that Slaf already had a 20 goal / 50 pt season under his belt most wouldn't belive it and some would probably suggest it was 3-5 years away.

Point is that he severely overperformed last year, especially in the 2nd half and now some in the fanbase got waaay ahead of themselves and expected him to take another leap. We know he has the skills, we've seen him be a great player. He's 20 years old and he needs time to adapt to changes and gain consistency.

48 pts at 20 isn't even bad, and he isn't playing well , it just goes to show when he gets it clicking he's capable of a lot more. I wouldn't even count out a big 2nd half again
I don't think he over performed to be honest.
There is a huge difference when playing games that have something on the line vs those that you can freewheel in.
We are playing games the team cares about Slaf doesn't want to be the one who f***s up he's on a first line after all.
 

Victoire HuGo

Formerly le Barron de HF
Mar 12, 2008
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There's also the possibility that they load up the top line next year with Caufield-Suzuki-Demidov. Slaf's PP1 time should also be long gone.

The major red flag was when Slaf was blasting the Slovak hockey federation at the beginning of the year and talking about how he gets harassed out in public when he's home in Slovakia. His head wasn't in the right place and it seems like he thought he arrived as a big star after his 50 points and big contract extension. He probably didn't prepare like he needed to both mentally and physically.
I do think you raise a good point. It was a pointless distraction and battle to fight timing wise. Very similar to Laine comments.
 

Frankenheimer

Sir, this is an Arber
Feb 22, 2009
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The history of players with one terrific contract year are plentiful. He will fail to get 10 goals this year and 30 pts is looking like his target for this season. Regression can be acceptable, but his homies are not regressing and he gets primetime ice. Heineman is outscoring him with almost any PP time. He isn't fast this year either which is concerning and is not controlling the play down low like he was last year. Something is up with this kid, he better figure it out because you don't just 'turn it on' in the NHL it's an unforgiving league.
30pts? Man, you guys just cant help yourselves.
 

Habnot

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No I'm not moving them at all, I really find his O zone play bad this year, and I'm shocked you don't either to be honest. He has a very heavy shot and his first two years would let his one-timer fly when available. I don't want him to be a playmaker, that size and shot .. he needs to score and drive the net. Let Cole setup on the outside, I could see Slaf on the point setting up the play and shooting. He has a great shot!

I didn't say he's been our best player - just that I don't see his play as regression. Last year he had 10 points a mid season and finished with 50. Let's see if he can get going for the second half. Progression is not linear - and this year he has not had a favorable usage. First he was taken off the first line for a long stretch and when Laine came back - he was given a much lesser role on PP.
 

Sorinth

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Jan 18, 2013
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I don t know about this, if there has been one team paying huge Dollar for Young players who have not proven anything, it is BUF and it has not been paying dividends yet…
MacKinnon coming off his ELC was looking like a 50 point player and signed a 6 year deal worth 8.63% of the cap. Slafkovsky's contract is at 8.64% of the cap, but is 8 years and that % will actually go down because the cap will increase before it even starts.

Do you not think Colorado kind of wished they had gambled a little more with MacKinnon and given him 8 years, a deal he would still be on this year?
 

LaP

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Jun 27, 2012
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Either way i doubt the team made a mistake with the contract. Did they make a mistake drafting him maybe but the contract wont be a problem. If we ever have to trade him a team at the bottom of the standing starting a rebuild will gamble on him.

This said a friendly reminder that LeClair before being traded was one of the most criticized player on the team. Her was often called lazy by lot of fans,
 
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Egresch

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Jul 10, 2022
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Heineman, who plays 4-5 minutes less per game, if he was given the same PP time and playing time, would he put up better numbers than Slaf. Yes or no?
Of course, not. Slaf is doing screening job in front of the net, so in fact he probably gets less puck touches than Heineman who is playing in PP2 different position.
 

Habs

Jake Evans will steal your wife
Feb 28, 2002
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I didn't say he's been our best player - just that I don't see his play as regression. Last year he had 10 points a mid season and finished with 50. Let's see if he can get going for the second half. Progression is not linear - and this year he has not had a favorable usage. First he was taken off the first line for a long stretch and when Laine came back - he was given a much lesser role on PP.

fair enough, but I never suggested you said he's our best player, I know you never. I didn't see Cole or Nick regress like Slaf has, and the 'big guys take time' narrative runs old when I don't see a guy trying. I think MSL had enough of his floating last night and sat him as well. His goal total is unacceptable for the talent he has, and I know he took off in the second half last year so I'm holding out hope. BTW I'm not calling him a bust, I just think he has to be better out there away from the puck, he looks a step behind.

Maybe we have to detach salary from a player because in the end it isn't our money anyways.

Either way i doubt the team made a mistake with the contract. Did they make a mistake drafting him maybe but the contract wont be a problem. If we ever have to trade him a team at the bottom of the standing starting a rebuild will gamble on him.

This said a friendly reminder that LeClair before being traded was one of the most criticized player on the team. Her was often called lazy by lot of fans,

Man I loved LeClair his final year here, he was really turning physical. Remember the Buffalo game when he dropped the gloves, I was shocked how he could throw them :)
 

bsl

Registered User
Oct 9, 2009
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So lately with Slafkovsky going back to his bad ways, there have been some valid concerns but also some hot takes on whether the team made a terrible mistake committing that kind of money for 8 years. Reminder: this a big player who’s still 20 years old and they are even more inconsistent than other players. I’ll be tackling the question on whether or not we should be concerned on Slafkovsky’s upcoming contract and whether it will affect negatively the window of this team by the time they can compete.

Information that was used for this analysis was the salary cap year by year starting on 2007-2008 to determine the cap hit % of each deal. Slafkovsky will represent a cap hit of 8.2% for year one of his deal.

Season2007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202022-20232023-20242024-20252025-2026
Salary Cap$ 50,300,000$ 56,700,000$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000$ 64,300,000$ 69,000,000$ 71,400,000$ 73,000,000$ 75,000,000$ 79,500,000$ 81,500,000$ 82,500,000$ 83,500,000$ 88,000,000$ 92,400,000
Equivalence in salary based on cap hit %$ 4,124,600$ 4,649,400$ 4,657,600$ 4,870,800$ 5,272,600$ 5,658,000$ 5,854,800$ 5,986,000$ 6,150,000$ 6,519,000$ 6,683,000$ 6,765,000$ 6,847,000$ 7,216,000$ 7,600,000


Part A:

Should Slaf have been signed to a bridge deal?

One idea that’s been thrown is that Slafkovsky should have been at a short deal. Cheap plug (HF Habs: - Analysis - The Inconsistency that come with Big Forwards) but after looking back at the comparables that there are for Slaf (forwards over 6 ft 2 that were picked in the top 15) and analyzing what contracts they were given, did management potentially make the right decision based on historical data. By narrowing down players who produced similar numbers during their ELC (0.65 to 0.72 PPG). I came up with a list of 11 players since 2003 draft.

NameNotesAAVYearsSalary CapCap Hit %Best Season (pts)AgeContract DetailsCap Hit %2nd Best SeasonAgeContract Details3rd Best SeasonAgeContract DetailsAssessmentBridge was/would have been best move?
HortonBridge 1 year 1.1M after ELC$ 4,000,000
6​
$ 50,300,000
8.0%​
57 (in 65 GP)
24​
$ 4,000,000
7.0%​
62​
21​
$ 1,100,000
62​
22​
$ 4,000,000Bridge should have been skippedNo
CarterSigned an 11 year deal after this one$ 5,000,000
3​
$ 56,700,000
8.8%​
84​
24​
$ 5,000,000
8.8%​
66​
26​
$ 5,000,000
66​
32​
Signed a deal no longer allowedN/A
MichalekSigned 3 year 4M after this one$ 4,333,333
6​
$ 56,700,000
7.6%​
66​
22​
ELC
60​
27​
$ 4,333,333
57​
24​
$ 4,333,333Best year happened during ELCYes
E. KaneSigned 7 year 7M deal after this one$ 5,250,000
6​
$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
49 (in 56 GP)
29​
$ 7,000,000
8.6%​
57​
20​
ELC
56​
27​
$ 7,000,000Kane's years were after his 2nd contract or ELCMaybe?
SeguinSigned 8 year 9.85M deal after this one$ 5,750,000
6​
$ 64,300,000
8.9%​
84​
22​
$ 5,750,000
8.9%​
77 (in 71 GP)
23​
$ 5,750,000
80​
27​
$ 5,750,000No
WennbergBought out on that deal after year 3$ 4,900,000
6​
$ 75,000,000
6.5%​
59​
22​
ELC40 (in 69 GP)
21​
ELC35 (in 66 GP)
23​
$ 4,900,000Was bought out and best years during ELCYes
PLDSigned 1 year deal at 6M then the 8 year 8.5M deal$ 5,000,000
2​
$ 81,500,000
6.1%​
63 (in 73 GP)
24​
$ 6,000,000
7.3%​
61​
20​
ELC
60​
23​
$ 5,000,000Would have saved on cap hit by committing earlierNo
NecasSigned 2 years at 6.5M after this one$ 3,000,000
2​
$ 82,500,000
3.6%​
71​
24​
$ 3,000,000
3.6%​
46 (in 38 GP)*
26​
$ 6,500,00041 (in 53 GP)
22​
ELCMight regret for next contractNo
B. Tkachuk$ 8,205,714
7​
$ 81,500,000
10.1%​
83​
23​
$ 8,205,714
9.9%​
37 (in 37 GP)
25​
$ 8,205,714
74​
24​
$ 8,205,714Yes
Byfield$ 6,250,000
5​
$ 88,000,000
7.1%​
55​
21​
ELCNot looking good right nowMaybe?
VoracekBridge 1 year 2.25M after ELC, then 8 years at 8.25M after this deal$ 4,250,000
4​
$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
85​
28​
$ 8,250,000
11.0%​
81​
25​
$ 4,250,000
66​
29​
$ 8,250,000Cap Hit could have been lower for big contract if committed earlierNo
AVG
7.4%​
73​
24​
8.2%​


I looked at the 3 best years of the players in this sample and noted the age it occurred, the contract details (was it during a bridge, ELC, etc) to determine if the teams ended up taking the right approach with their respective player and if they ended up rewarding a player for past performance or properly predicting the trajectory of their player and ending up with a semi bargain.

Would a bridge deal have been the best move for the organization? Based on historical data (5 no’s, 3 yes and 2 maybe’s), I would say no it wouldn’t have. Unless they simply went with shorter term but then you potentially run into the risk of not getting s much of a bargain. One can argue the teams who signed Kane, Seguin, Voracek, Horton and Tkachuk would have been better off adding 1-2 extra years.

Looking at the data for the best seasons of the players from this sample. The age is 24 years old where players produce their most productive year. Reminder: Slafkovsky is just 20 years old. The average cap hit % during those most productive years is in the 8.2% range (note ELCs were excluded here).

Part B

What kind of cap hit should be expected if Slafkovsky’s ceiling is a 67-70 points player in his best years and would it provide good value for the team?

The next concern of some folks is whether Slafkovsky will be overpaid for what he brings at his next deal. BY analyzing the cap increases every year from 2006-2007 all the way until the pandemic, there was an average cap increase of 2.4M every season. If we fast forward to Slafkovsky’s season where he’ll be 24 years old (2028-2029) and project the cap to go up by 7.2M, if so Slafkovsky’s cap hit would be 7.63% and would be the equivalent to 7.050M in next year’s cap if converted.

2026-20272027-20282028-20292029-20302030-20312031-2032
$ 94,800,000$ 97,200,000$ 99,600,000$ 102,000,000$ 104,400,000$ 106,800,000
$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000$ 7,600,000
8.02%​
7.82%​
7.63%​
7.45%​
7.28%​
7.12%​

I think this barometer is a bit arbitrary but I could see Slafkovsky being a player that averages between 67-70 points during his prime. By splitting the last 14 seasons in different segments and adjusting for scoring surge I narrowed down the forwards from 2010-2015 who averaged 60-63 points during that time span. I did the same from 2015-2020 with forwards who averaged between 64 and 66 points during that period. Finally for the 2020-2024 stretched I looked at forwards who averaged between 67 and 70 points during that stretch. That offered me a sample of 45 players. I looked at their cap hit % during each season and excluded those on ELCs.

Name2009-2010Salary CapCap Hit2010-2011Salary CapCap Hit2011-2012Salary CapCap Hit2013-2014Salary CapCap Hit2014-2015Salary Cap 2Cap Hit
Paul Stastny$ 6,600,000$ 56,800,000
11.6%​
$ 6,600,000$ 59,400,000
11.1%​
$ 6,600,000$ 64,300,000
10.3%​
$ 6,600,000$ 64,300,000
10.3%​
$ 7,000,000$ 69,000,000
10.1%​
Patrik Elias$ 6,000,000$ 56,800,000
10.6%​
$ 6,000,000$ 59,400,000
10.1%​
$ 6,000,000$ 64,300,000
9.3%​
$ 5,500,000$ 64,300,000
8.6%​
$ 5,500,000$ 69,000,000
8.0%​
Daniel Alfredsson$ 5,400,000$ 56,800,000
9.5%​
$ 5,400,000$ 59,400,000
9.1%​
$ 5,400,000$ 64,300,000
8.4%​
$ 5,500,000$ 64,300,000
8.6%​
Jason Pominville$ 5,300,000$ 56,800,000
9.3%​
$ 5,300,000$ 59,400,000
8.9%​
$ 5,300,000$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,300,000$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,600,000$ 69,000,000
8.1%​
Jeff Carter$ 5,000,000$ 56,800,000
8.8%​
$ 5,000,000$ 59,400,000
8.4%​
$ 5,272,727$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,272,727$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,272,727$ 69,000,000
7.6%​
Patrice Bergeron$ 4,750,000$ 56,800,000
8.4%​
$ 4,750,000$ 59,400,000
8.0%​
$ 5,000,000$ 64,300,000
7.8%​
$ 5,000,000$ 64,300,000
7.8%​
$ 6,875,000$ 69,000,000
10.0%​
Andy McDonald$ 4,700,000$ 56,800,000
8.3%​
$ 4,700,000$ 59,400,000
7.9%​
$ 4,700,000$ 64,300,000
7.3%​
Johan Franzen$ 3,954,545$ 56,800,000
7.0%​
$ 3,954,545$ 59,400,000
6.7%​
$ 3,954,545$ 64,300,000
6.2%​
$ 3,954,545$ 64,300,000
6.2%​
$ 3,954,545$ 69,000,000
5.7%​
David Krejci$ 3,750,000$ 56,800,000
6.6%​
$ 3,750,000$ 59,400,000
6.3%​
$ 3,750,000$ 64,300,000
5.8%​
$ 5,250,000$ 64,300,000
8.2%​
$ 5,250,000$ 69,000,000
7.6%​
Chris Kunitz$ 3,725,000$ 56,800,000
6.6%​
$ 3,725,000$ 59,400,000
6.3%​
$ 3,725,000$ 64,300,000
5.8%​
$ 3,725,000$ 64,300,000
5.8%​
$ 3,850,000$ 69,000,000
5.6%​
Ray Whitney$ 3,550,000$ 56,800,000
6.3%​
$ 3,000,000$ 59,400,000
5.1%​
$ 3,000,000$ 64,300,000
4.7%​
$ 4,500,000$ 64,300,000
7.0%​
Alex Steen$ 1,700,000$ 56,800,000
3.0%​
$ 3,362,500$ 59,400,000
5.7%​
$ 3,362,500$ 64,300,000
5.2%​
$ 3,362,500$ 64,300,000
5.2%​
$ 5,800,000$ 69,000,000
8.4%​
Loui Eriksson$ 1,600,000$ 56,800,000
2.8%​
$ 4,250,000$ 59,400,000
7.2%​
$ 4,250,000$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
$ 4,250,000$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
$ 4,250,000$ 69,000,000
6.2%​
Matt DucheneELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000ELC$ 64,300,000$ 3,500,000$ 64,300,000
5.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 69,000,000
8.7%​
Jakub VoracekELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000$ 2,250,000$ 64,300,000
3.5%​
$ 4,250,000$ 64,300,000
6.6%​
$ 4,250,000$ 69,000,000
6.2%​
Bobby RyanELC$ 56,800,000$ 5,100,000$ 59,400,000
8.6%​
$ 5,100,000$ 64,300,000
7.9%​
$ 5,100,000$ 64,300,000
7.9%​
$ 5,100,000$ 69,000,000
7.4%​
Max PaciorettyELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000$ 1,625,000$ 64,300,000
2.5%​
$ 4,500,000$ 64,300,000
7.0%​
$ 4,500,000$ 69,000,000
6.5%​
Logan CoutureELC$ 56,800,000ELC$ 59,400,000ELC$ 64,300,000$ 2,875,000$ 64,300,000
4.5%​
$ 6,000,000$ 69,000,000
8.7%​
Jaromir Jagr$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000$ 3,300,000$ 64,300,000
5.1%​
$ 4,000,000$ 64,300,000
6.2%​
$ 5,500,000$ 69,000,000
8.0%​
RNH$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000ELC$ 64,300,000ELC$ 64,300,000$ 6,000,000$ 69,000,000
8.7%​
Vladimir Tarasenko$ 56,800,000$ 59,400,000$ 64,300,000ELC$ 64,300,000ELC$ 69,000,000
AVG$ 4,309,965
7.6%​
$ 4,635,146
7.8%​
$ 4,269,987
6.6%​
$ 4,579,987
7.1%​
$ 5,335,428
7.7%​
Name2015-2016Salary CapCap Hit2016-2017Salary CapCap Hit2017-2018Salary CapCap Hit2018-2019Salary CapCap Hit2019-2020Salary CapCap Hit
David Krejci$ 7,250,000$ 71,400,000
10.2%​
$ 7,250,000$ 73,000,000
9.9%​
$ 7,250,000$ 75,000,000
9.7%​
$ 7,250,000$ 79,500,000
9.1%​
$ 7,250,000$ 81,500,000
8.9%​
Joe Pavelski$ 6,000,000$ 71,400,000
8.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 73,000,000
8.2%​
$ 6,000,000$ 75,000,000
8.0%​
$ 6,000,000$ 79,500,000
7.5%​
$ 7,000,000$ 81,500,000
8.6%​
Brayden Schenn$ 2,500,000$ 71,400,000
3.5%​
$ 5,125,000$ 73,000,000
7.0%​
$ 5,125,000$ 75,000,000
6.8%​
$ 5,125,000$ 79,500,000
6.4%​
$ 5,125,000$ 81,500,000
6.3%​
Mike Hoffman$ 2,000,000$ 71,400,000
2.8%​
$ 5,187,500$ 73,000,000
7.1%​
$ 5,187,500$ 75,000,000
6.9%​
$ 5,187,500$ 79,500,000
6.5%​
$ 5,187,500$ 81,500,000
6.4%​
Sean Couturier$ 1,750,000$ 71,400,000
2.5%​
$ 4,333,333$ 73,000,000
5.9%​
$ 4,333,333$ 75,000,000
5.8%​
$ 4,333,333$ 79,500,000
5.5%​
$ 4,333,333$ 81,500,000
5.3%​
Filip ForsbergELC$ 71,400,000$ 6,000,000$ 73,000,000
8.2%​
$ 6,000,000$ 75,000,000
8.0%​
$ 6,000,000$ 79,500,000
7.5%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
AVG$ 3,900,000
5.5%​
$ 5,649,306
7.7%​
$ 5,649,306
7.5%​
$ 5,649,306
7.1%​
$ 5,815,972
7.1%​
Name2020-2021Salary CapCap Hit2021-2022Salary CapCap Hit2022-2023Salary CapCap Hit2023-2024Salary CapCap Hit
Duchene$ 8,000,000$ 81,500,000
9.8%​
$ 8,000,000$ 81,500,000
9.8%​
$ 8,000,000$ 82,500,000
9.7%​
$ 8,000,000$ 83,500,000
9.6%​
Tarasenko$ 7,500,000$ 81,500,000
9.2%​
$ 7,500,000$ 81,500,000
9.2%​
$ 7,500,000$ 82,500,000
9.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 83,500,000
6.0%​
Pacioretty$ 7,000,000$ 81,500,000
8.6%​
$ 7,000,000$ 81,500,000
8.6%​
$ 7,000,000$ 82,500,000
8.5%​
$ 4,000,000$ 83,500,000
4.8%​
Bergeron$ 6,875,000$ 81,500,000
8.4%​
$ 6,875,000$ 81,500,000
8.4%​
$ 5,000,000$ 82,500,000
6.1%​
$ 83,500,000
Laine$ 6,750,000$ 81,500,000
8.3%​
$ 7,500,000$ 81,500,000
9.2%​
$ 8,700,000$ 82,500,000
10.5%​
$ 8,700,000$ 83,500,000
10.4%​
Kreider$ 6,500,000$ 81,500,000
8.0%​
$ 6,500,000$ 81,500,000
8.0%​
$ 6,500,000$ 82,500,000
7.9%​
$ 6,500,000$ 83,500,000
7.8%​
Nelson$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 82,500,000
7.3%​
$ 6,000,000$ 83,500,000
7.2%​
Meier$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 82,500,000
7.3%​
$ 8,800,000$ 83,500,000
10.5%​
Ehlers$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 81,500,000
7.4%​
$ 6,000,000$ 82,500,000
7.3%​
$ 6,000,000$ 83,500,000
7.2%​
Schmaltz$ 5,850,000$ 81,500,000
7.2%​
$ 5,850,000$ 81,500,000
7.2%​
$ 5,850,000$ 82,500,000
7.1%​
$ 5,850,000$ 83,500,000
7.0%​
Konecny$ 5,500,000$ 81,500,000
6.7%​
$ 5,500,000$ 81,500,000
6.7%​
$ 5,500,000$ 82,500,000
6.7%​
$ 5,500,000$ 83,500,000
6.6%​
Marchessault$ 5,000,000$ 81,500,000
6.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 81,500,000
6.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 82,500,000
6.1%​
$ 5,000,000$ 83,500,000
6.0%​
Lindholm$ 4,850,000$ 81,500,000
6.0%​
$ 4,850,000$ 81,500,000
6.0%​
$ 4,850,000$ 82,500,000
5.9%​
$ 4,850,000$ 83,500,000
5.8%​
Tuch$ 4,750,000$ 81,500,000
5.8%​
$ 4,750,000$ 81,500,000
5.8%​
$ 4,750,000$ 82,500,000
5.8%​
$ 4,750,000$ 83,500,000
5.7%​
Verhaeghe$ 1,000,000$ 81,500,000
1.2%​
$ 1,000,000$ 81,500,000
1.2%​
$ 4,166,667$ 82,500,000
5.1%​
$ 4,166,667$ 83,500,000
5.0%​
SuzukiELC$ 81,500,000ELC$ 81,500,000$ 7,875,000$ 82,500,000
9.5%​
$ 7,875,000$ 83,500,000
9.4%​
BoldyELC$ 81,500,000ELC$ 81,500,000ELC$ 82,500,000$ 7,000,000$ 83,500,000
8.4%​
SvechnikovELC$ 81,500,000$ 7,750,000$ 81,500,000
9.5%​
$ 7,750,000$ 82,500,000
9.4%​
$ 7,750,000$ 83,500,000
9.3%​
AVG$ 5,838,333
7.2%​
$ 6,004,688
7.4%​
$ 6,261,275
7.6%​
$ 6,220,098
7.4%​


For the most part, the players have a more favorable cap hit % than Slafkovsky’s projected 7.6% (keep in mind that number would keep going down as years go by; 3 seasons later we could be looking at 7.12%). The average during those 14 seasons was a cap hit of 7.2% for that kind of productivity. There were 3 seasons where 7.6% would have offered better value during that season, 1 where it was even and 10 where it would have been worse value.

Note: I used a very conservative approach for this, based on previous reports by Elliott Friedman, we could be looking a massive jump for salary cap in upcoming years with the expansions.

Part C

Will Slafkovsky’s cap hit be a nuisance to the team if he tops out as that kind of player?

I looked at the roster of the Stanley Cup winners since 2012 (that’s as far as the resource I used could go). Again I will be basing myself off Slafkovsky’s project 7.63% where he’ll be 24 years old which could be a realistic target for our stanley cup window to open up.


Season2011-2012Cap Hit2012-2013Cap Hit2013-2014Cap Hit2014-2015Cap Hit2015-2016Cap Hit2016-2017Cap Hit2017-2018Cap Hit2018-2019Cap Hit2019-2020Cap Hit2020-2021Cap Hit2021-2022Cap Hit2022-2023Cap Hit2023-2024Cap Hit
WinnerLAKCHILAKCHIPITPITWSHSTLTBTBCOLVGKFLA
Highest paid playersDoughty
10.89%​
Kane
8.97%​
Gaborik
11.66%​
Kane
9.13%​
Malkin
13.31%​
Malkin
13.01%​
Ovechkin
12.72%​
Tarasenko
9.43%​
Kucherov
11.60%​
Vasilevskiy
11.60%​
Rantanen
11.30%​
Eichel
12.12%​
Bobrovsky
11.98%​
Kopitar
10.58%​
Toews
8.97%​
Doughty
10.89%​
Toews
9.13%​
Crosby
12.18%​
Crosby
11.92%​
Kuznetsov
10.40%​
ROR
9.43%​
Stamkos
10.40%​
Kucherov
11.60%​
Makar
11.04%​
Pietrangelo
10.67%​
Barkov
11.98%​
SlafRichards
8.94%​
Sharp
8.40%​
Kopitar
10.58%​
Crawford
8.70%​
Letang
10.15%​
Letang
9.93%​
Backstrom
8.93%​
Pietrangelo
8.18%​
Hedman
9.66%​
Stamkos
10.40%​
Landeskog
8.59%​
Tkachuk
11.38%​
7.63%​
Carter
8.20%​
Seabrook
8.26%​
Quick
9.02%​
Sharp
8.55%​
Kessel
9.52%​
Kessel
9.32%​
Holtby
8.13%​
McDonagh
8.28%​
Hedman
9.66%​
MacKinnon
7.73%​
Ekblad
8.98%​
Keith
7.89%​
Richards
8.94%​
Seabrook
8.41%​
Fleury
8.05%​
Fleury
7.88%​
Niskanen
7.67%​
Point
8.28%​
McDonagh
8.28%​
Reinhart
7.78%​
Hossa7.70%Carter
8.20%​
Keith
8.03%​
Oshie
7.67%​
Point
8.28%​
Hossa
7.64%​
Rank
5​
7​
7​
8​
6​
6​
7​
4​
6​
7​
4​
3​
6​
AVG
5.85​

On average, with that cap hit, Slafkovsky would be the 5.85th (round up to 6th) highest paid player on a SC winning team. That is very encouraging because in my opinion, I think the team won’t be in trouble if Slafkovsky is the team’s 4th or 5th best player on the team. The fact that the rest of the core is locked up at a bargain price is even more reason to be optimistic about the future of this team.


Hope you enjoyed this read!
Slaf is young. I think giving max term to young players with high upside is smart. Locks them up and gives them confidence to grow. Also pressures them to improve. Hugo seem to like this aporoach and I agree with it.
 

GrandBison

Registered User
Jul 1, 2019
2,125
2,524
7.6 million for 8 years starting next season.

This contract will age well. Slafkovsky will find his game and become a dominant player. Progress isn't linear. This is not Kotkaniemi. Don't count him out because you will end up eating crow.

He's pacing for a 48 point season right now, if he turns it up in the second half of the season he could hit 60 points. That would be a successful season.
Already have one 50pts season more than Kotkaniemi
 

Maitz

Registered User
Aug 3, 2006
3,549
2,407
Montreal
I did not see the need to rush his contract after one good season. We could have sign him this summer. Is kinda funny, people want to do the same with Lane Hutson this summer. Sign him a big contract after one good season.

How about we wait until summer of 2026 to sign Hutson contract after 2 seasons in the NHL? What the risk? That Hutson put up 100pts next season and we need to pay him 12m?
Exactly, I mean if Slaf would be pt per game this year and finish with 75 pts what more would he cost ? 1M more? And he would have pushed himself to another level, right now I see a guy that his footspeed is slow, try to play like a skills player while he is a powerforward, he watch the play way too much instead of being in movement, finish his checks and put pucks at the net.
 
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Victoire HuGo

Formerly le Barron de HF
Mar 12, 2008
16,967
5,292
Shawinigan
Exactly, I mean if Slaf would be pt per game this year and finish with 75 pts what more would he cost ? 1M more? And he would have pushed himself to another level, right now I see a guy that his footspeed is slow, try to play like a skills player while he is a powerforward, he watch the play way too much instead of being in movement, finish his checks and put pucks at the net.
8.6M would be 9.3% of the cap. That's slightly lower than Suzuki when he signed 1M is not negligible. You can also argue he would have had more than 8.6M. Tkachuk got close to that.
 
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Kennerback

Registered User
Jun 2, 2021
4,873
7,563
Aside from the fact he needs to move his legs more and he absolutely needs a year round full time shooting coach +$ 80,000 (but it doesn’t count against the cap), I still like the gamble on the contract.
 

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