Player Discussion Analysis of the league's top d-men - Patience is key

Victoire HuGo · Jul 14, 2024

Hello all,

After 3 drafts, a large portion of the fanbase is satisfied with how things are going but it seems many are worried about the lack of potential #1D as part of the defensive prospects. I took the time to go over the last decade of NHL data to try to analyze the draft pedigree and how long it took for teams to see what they had with some of their defenseman. To start, I selected the top 45 defenseman in icetime over the last 10 seasons. I used that data to make easier to pinpoint the defenders who part of the elite. Of course, some were simply stopgaps or a result of a terrible team (see Ristolainen).

The purpose of this was to see how long it took for a team to know what they had since defenseman take so long to develop and, at times, are late bloomers.

My definition of a stud is the cream of the crop, a defenseman who's among the elite and has a strong case for the Norris trophy. IMO, this type of piece is not crucial for this team to become a SC champion but would definitely increase the chances of becoming one. My definition of a top pair defenseman is a player who would be good enough to be your #1 and win a SC.

For the stud, here is how the data broke down:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NAME[/TD]
[TD]TIMES IN TOP 45[/TD]
[TD]DRAFT POSITION[/TD]
[TD]ROUND[/TD]
[TD]NOTE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Fox[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

66

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Pietrangelo[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Markov[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

162

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Burns[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]

[TD]

20

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlie McAvoy[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

14

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dougie Hamilton[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duncan Keith[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

54

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

15

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaccob Slavin[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

120

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Carlson[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

27

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Klingberg[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

131

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Letang[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

62

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc-Edouard Vlasic[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

35

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]D+12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miro Heiskanen[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oliver Ekman-Larsson[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.K. Subban[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

43

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinn Hughes[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Dahlin[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Roman Josi[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

38

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan McDonagh[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

12

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Suter[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seth Jones[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Theodore[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

26

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

49

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

56

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average draft position: 35th

Break down of how long it took for these players to be recognized (either via ice time uptick or Norris vote) or show they can be counted on as their team's go to guy:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]D+2[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+3[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+4[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+5[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+6[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+7[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+9[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+12[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

For the top pair players:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NAME[/TD]
[TD]TIMES IN TOP 45[/TD]
[TD]DRAFT POSITION[/TD]
[TD]ROUND[/TD]
[TD]NOTE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Aaron Ekblad[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Edler[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

91

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam Fowler[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

12

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton Parayko[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

86

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

108

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dion Phaneuf[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Byfuglien[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

245

[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hampus Lindholm[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jared Spurgeon[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

156

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]D+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jay Bouwmeester[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeff Petry[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

45

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonas Brodin[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Morrissey[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

13

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keith Yandle[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

105

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MacKenzie Weegar[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

206

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Ekholm[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

102

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moritz Seider[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vince Dunn[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

56

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Werenski[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average draft position: 64th

Break down of how long it took:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]D+3[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+4[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+5[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+6[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+7[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+8[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+9[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+10[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+12[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Without any real surprise, it seems like it's often during the D+4/D+5 season that teams start realizing what they have.

In the cases of outliers for either of these:
They were either undersized (Hutson) or European (Reinbacher, Engstrom, Bogdan) or simply a late bloomer.

Given that Guhle and Barron are the oldest ones of the group and only entering their D+5 year, I think patience from this fanbase and management will be key. Considering the overhaul of the development and what some of our youngsters have, if they are surrounded by key vets and not yo-yo'd like previous management, I have no concern that this team is in good hands.

Reinbacher is entering his D+2 year.
Hutson/Engstrom are entering their D+3 year.
Mailloux is entering his D+4 year.
Struble is entering his D+6 year.
Harris is entering his D+7 year.

I'll also throw in the fact that Engstrom is the one that was selected the latest of the bunch at 92nd overall. With the averages pointed out earlier, some of these have the draft pedigree of their peers to achieve such a ceiling.

We never know what we have and as shown by some of the examples above, a lot a quick to dismiss prospects or assign them a ceiling without having had the opportunity to gain experience and work on their warts.

Plz like and subscribe

PS: Full table for those curious of the players that appeared in top 45 TOI over last decade:
Name / Times appearing in the list / Draft position
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Aaron Ekblad[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Fox[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

66

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Larsson[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alec Martinez[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

95

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Goligoski[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

61

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Pietrangelo[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Edler[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

91

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Markov[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

162

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andy Greene[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anton Stralman[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

216

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ben Chiarot[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

120

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brandon Montour[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

55

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Burns[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]

[TD]

20

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Seabrook[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

14

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Pesce[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

66

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

156

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brock Faber[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

45

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam Fowler[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

12

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam York[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

14

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlie McAvoy[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

14

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cody Ceci[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

15

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton Parayko[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

86

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Damon Severson[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

60

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dan Girardi[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darnell Nurse[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Savard[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

94

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dennis Wideman[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

241

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

108

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dion Phaneuf[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dmitry Orlov[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

55

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dougie Hamilton[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duncan Keith[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

54

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Byfuglien[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

245

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Gustafsson[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

93

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Johnson[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

15

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Esa Lindell[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

74

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Evan Bouchard[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Hronek[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

53

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Francois Beauchemin[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

75

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gustav Forsling[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

126

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hampus Lindholm[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivan Provorov[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaccob Slavin[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

120

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jack Johnson[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jacob Trouba[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Muzzin[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

141

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Sanderson[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jakob Chychrun[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

16

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jared Spurgeon[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

156

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jay Bouwmeester[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeff Petry[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

45

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Carlson[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

27

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Klingberg[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

131

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonas Brodin[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Morrissey[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

13

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Faulk[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

37

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keith Yandle[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

105

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Letang[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

62

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Russell[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

67

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MacKenzie Weegar[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

206

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc Methot[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

168

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc-Edouard Vlasic[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

35

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marco Scandella[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

55

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marcus Pettersson[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

38

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Ferraro[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

49

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mathew Dumba[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Hunwick[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

224

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Niskanen[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

28

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Ekholm[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

102

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Samuelsson[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

32

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Del Zotto[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

20

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Green[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

29

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Matheson[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

23

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mikhail Sergachev[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

9

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miro Heiskanen[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moritz Seider[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Neal Pionk[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Leddy[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

16

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Zaitsev[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Niklas Kronwall[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

29

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Dobson[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

12

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Hanifin[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oliver Ekman-Larsson[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oscar Klefbom[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

19

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Power[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.K. Subban[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

43

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul Martin[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

62

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinn Hughes[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Andersson[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

53

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Dahlin[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Ristolainen[/TD]

[TD]

5

[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Roman Josi[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

38

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Ellis[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

11

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan McDonagh[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

12

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Murray[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Pulock[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

15

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Suter[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

47

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Durzi[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

52

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seth Jones[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Theodore[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

26

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

49

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Slava Voynov[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

32

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas Chabot[/TD]

[TD]

6

[/TD]

[TD]

18

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

114

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Toby Enstrom[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

239

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tony DeAngelo[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

19

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Torey Krug[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Hamonic[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

53

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Sanheim[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

17

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trevor Daley[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

43

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyler Myers[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

12

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Barrie[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]

[TD]

64

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]

[TD]

10

[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vince Dunn[/TD]

[TD]

2

[/TD]

[TD]

56

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Bogosian[/TD]

[TD]

1

[/TD]

[TD]

3

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Werenski[/TD]

[TD]

7

[/TD]

[TD]

8

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]

[TD]

4

[/TD]

[TD]

56

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Deebs · Jul 14, 2024

There's so much work put into this, big kudos.

Sterling Archer · Jul 14, 2024

Le Barron de HF said:
Hello all,

After 3 drafts, a large portion of the fanbase is satisfied with how things are going but it seems many are worried about the lack of potential #1D as part of the defensive prospects. I took the time to go over the last decade of NHL data to try to analyze the draft pedigree and how long it took for teams to see what they had with some of their defenseman. To start, I selected the top 45 defenseman in icetime over the last 10 seasons. I used that data to make easier to pinpoint the defenders who part of the elite. Of course, some were simply stopgaps or a result of a terrible team (see Ristolainen).

The purpose of this was to see how long it took for a team to know what they had since defenseman take so long to develop and, at times, are late bloomers.

My definition of a stud is the cream of the crop, a defenseman who's among the elite and has a strong case for the Norris trophy. IMO, this type of piece is not crucial for this team to become a SC champion but would definitely increase the chances of becoming one. My definition of a top pair defenseman is a player who would be good enough to be your #1 and win a SC.

For the stud, here is how the data broke down:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NAME[/TD]
[TD]TIMES IN TOP 45[/TD]
[TD]DRAFT POSITION[/TD]
[TD]ROUND[/TD]
[TD]NOTE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Fox[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
66
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Pietrangelo[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Markov[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
162
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Burns[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
20
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlie McAvoy[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dougie Hamilton[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duncan Keith[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
54
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaccob Slavin[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
120
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Carlson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
27
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Klingberg[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
131
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Letang[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
62
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc-Edouard Vlasic[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
35
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]D+12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miro Heiskanen[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oliver Ekman-Larsson[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.K. Subban[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
43
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinn Hughes[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Dahlin[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Roman Josi[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
38
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan McDonagh[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Suter[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seth Jones[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Theodore[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
26
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
49
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average draft position: 35th

Break down of how long it took for these players to be recognized (either via ice time uptick or Norris vote) or show they can be counted on as their team's go to guy:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]D+2[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+3[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+4[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+5[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+6[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+7[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+9[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+12[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

For the top pair players:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NAME[/TD]
[TD]TIMES IN TOP 45[/TD]
[TD]DRAFT POSITION[/TD]
[TD]ROUND[/TD]
[TD]NOTE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Aaron Ekblad[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Edler[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
91
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam Fowler[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton Parayko[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
86
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
108
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dion Phaneuf[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Byfuglien[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
245
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hampus Lindholm[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jared Spurgeon[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
156
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]D+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jay Bouwmeester[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeff Petry[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
45
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonas Brodin[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Morrissey[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
13
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keith Yandle[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
105
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MacKenzie Weegar[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
206
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Ekholm[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
102
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moritz Seider[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vince Dunn[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Werenski[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average draft position: 64th

Break down of how long it took:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]D+3[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+4[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+5[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+6[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+7[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+8[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+9[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+10[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+12[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Without any real surprise, it seems like it's often during the D+4/D+5 season that teams start realizing what they have.

In the cases of outliers for either of these:
They were either undersized (Hutson) or European (Reinbacher, Engstrom, Bogdan) or simply a late bloomer.

Given that Guhle and Barron are the oldest ones of the group and only entering their D+5 year, I think patience from this fanbase and management will be key. Considering the overhaul of the development and what some of our youngsters have, if they are surrounded by key vets and not yo-yo'd like previous management, I have no concern that this team is in good hands.

Reinbacher is entering his D+2 year.
Hutson/Engstrom are entering their D+3 year.
Mailloux is entering his D+4 year.
Struble is entering his D+6 year.
Harris is entering his D+7 year.

I'll also throw in the fact that Engstrom is the one that was selected the latest of the bunch at 92nd overall. With the averages pointed out earlier, some of these have the draft pedigree of their peers to achieve such a ceiling.

We never know what we have and as shown by some of the examples above, a lot a quick to dismiss prospects or assign them a ceiling without having had the opportunity to gain experience and work on their warts.

Plz like and subscribe

PS: Full table for those curious of the players that appeared in top 45 TOI over last decade:
Name / Times appearing in the list / Draft position
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Aaron Ekblad[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Fox[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
66
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Larsson[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alec Martinez[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
95
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Goligoski[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
61
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Pietrangelo[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Edler[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
91
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Markov[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
162
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andy Greene[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anton Stralman[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
216
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ben Chiarot[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brandon Montour[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Burns[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Seabrook[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Pesce[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
66
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brock Faber[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam Fowler[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam York[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlie McAvoy[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cody Ceci[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton Parayko[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Damon Severson[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dan Girardi[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darnell Nurse[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Savard[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
94
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dennis Wideman[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
241
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
108
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dion Phaneuf[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dmitry Orlov[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dougie Hamilton[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duncan Keith[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
54
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Byfuglien[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
245
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Gustafsson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
93
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Johnson[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Esa Lindell[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
74
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Evan Bouchard[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Hronek[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Francois Beauchemin[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
75
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gustav Forsling[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
126
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hampus Lindholm[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivan Provorov[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaccob Slavin[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jack Johnson[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jacob Trouba[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Muzzin[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
141
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Sanderson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jakob Chychrun[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jared Spurgeon[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jay Bouwmeester[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeff Petry[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Carlson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
27
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Klingberg[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
131
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonas Brodin[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Morrissey[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
13
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Faulk[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
37
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keith Yandle[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
105
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Letang[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
62
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Russell[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
67
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MacKenzie Weegar[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
206
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc Methot[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
168
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc-Edouard Vlasic[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
35
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marco Scandella[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marcus Pettersson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Ferraro[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mathew Dumba[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Hunwick[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
224
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Niskanen[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
28
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Ekholm[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
102
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Samuelsson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
32
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Del Zotto[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Green[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Matheson[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mikhail Sergachev[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miro Heiskanen[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moritz Seider[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Neal Pionk[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Leddy[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Zaitsev[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Niklas Kronwall[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Dobson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Hanifin[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oliver Ekman-Larsson[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oscar Klefbom[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Power[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.K. Subban[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
43
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul Martin[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
62
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinn Hughes[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Andersson[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Dahlin[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Ristolainen[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Roman Josi[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Ellis[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan McDonagh[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Murray[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Pulock[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Suter[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
47
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Durzi[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
52
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seth Jones[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Theodore[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
26
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Slava Voynov[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
32
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas Chabot[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
18
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Toby Enstrom[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
239
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tony DeAngelo[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Torey Krug[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Hamonic[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Sanheim[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trevor Daley[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
43
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyler Myers[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Barrie[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
64
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vince Dunn[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Bogosian[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Werenski[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Great job and a lot of work! Thanks for the great info in this post!

Miller Time · Jul 14, 2024

Should sticky the D+ charts at the top of every thread lol

Doc5 · Jul 14, 2024

Great read, thank you!

BLONG7 · Jul 14, 2024

Great job..............man some of those guys took time.
We as a fan base really struggle with being patient.

We are a year or so away from something special guys................it's been forever, for those of us old enough to remember the greatness of the 70's and to a lesser extent the 80's and early 90's

LaP · Jul 14, 2024

Great work. Not really a surprise. It's true for all prospects imo but yeah even more so dmen and goalies.

I've been saying for a while that this is how on average prospects should be evaluated.

18-19 : Don't make any evaluation let them grow and work with them.
20-21-22 : You can slowly but surely start to see what the player is capable of. Not wysiwyg yet there's still lot of potential to grow but the closer you get to 23 the smaller this potential becomes.
23-24-25 : The player slowly start to be wysiwyg. The potential to grow becomes more and more minimal as the years pass (mostly just lack of experience). You know where the player will slot in your lineup. It's starting to be 15 minutes to midnight for the player.

Guhle slot in the 2nd category. But he'll turn 23 in January (middle of the season) so he should take a good step in the next 2 years after that he'll be as seen on TV.

Lshap · Jul 15, 2024

It's one thing to repeat the cliche, "Defensemen take time". It's another to show your work.

Solid data and a concrete illustration of the need to be patient. Thank you!

Habs Halifax · Jul 15, 2024

Well done! Love it. Just proves what some of us have been saying. Yeah, prospects busts. We know this but the point here is we can't get too excited or too down on those D. Let them earn the min's/usage and you usually know by age 23 ish. Some earlier, some later.

ReHabs · Jul 15, 2024

Thanks for sharing. It's good to have data more or less validate an old adage like 'defensemen take time' but what's more relevant and interesting is what the Habs ought to do with a glut of defenders who are not yet finished products -- a much more complicated decision requiring more sophisticated analysis.

The data you show is like an iceberg: the players who made it to your top45 TOI get listed but there are 5 times as many players who make up the top7 of a 32 team league (total: 225). How many seasons did it take for them before they were baked and set aside as not-top45 dmen? I find it relevant to the Habs in order to figure out the trajectory and tendency of some of our players and analyse when their status and perceived future value should be reviewed/adjusted.

As an example: @Jaynki proposed to trade Guhle last summer (2023) and I balked at the notion, but this summer 2024 Guhle is no longer on my must-keep list and I find I would trade him if I found the right value. We had different thresholds to arrive to the same conclusion: sacrificing Guhle isn't going to break our future competitive roster. (We could both be wrong about this but the point isn't to debate Guhle but to figure out what the right tool is to figure out how to interpret the trajectory of NHL defenders).

If we had a cut-off of D+6 then I think that's too late and the defender (when viewed as a trade asset) is likely to have exhausted most of his perceived potential in the eyes of the market. eg. A 24 year old d-man who is bottom3 on his team is not as sexy a trade-piece as a 22 year old d-man who is playing bottom3 on his team, because the market would likely consider the 22 year old as possessing more untapped/unrealised upside.

On the other hand, your data shows D+3 is far too early to know if a d-man is going to be worth keeping for his top45TOI upside or not. So the sweet spot is around D+4 and D+6 in order to ascertain this top45TOI upside whilst maintaining some bit of market trade value.

Victoire HuGo · Jul 15, 2024

ReHabs said:
Thanks for sharing. It's good to have data more or less validate an old adage like 'defensemen take time' but what's more relevant and interesting is what the Habs ought to do with a glut of defenders who are not yet finished products -- a much more complicated decision requiring more sophisticated analysis.

The data you show is like an iceberg: the players who made it to your top45 TOI get listed but there are 5 times as many players who make up the top7 of a 32 team league (total: 225). How many seasons did it take for them before they were baked and set aside as not-top45 dmen? I find it relevant to the Habs in order to figure out the trajectory and tendency of some of our players and analyse when their status and perceived future value should be reviewed/adjusted.

As an example: @Jaynki proposed to trade Guhle last summer (2023) and I balked at the notion, but this summer 2024 Guhle is no longer on my must-keep list and I find I would trade him if I found the right value. We had different thresholds to arrive to the same conclusion: sacrificing Guhle isn't going to break our future competitive roster. (We could both be wrong about this but the point isn't to debate Guhle but to figure out what the right tool is to figure out how to interpret the trajectory of NHL defenders).

If we had a cut-off of D+6 then I think that's too late and the defender (when viewed as a trade asset) is likely to have exhausted most of his perceived potential in the eyes of the market. eg. A 24 year old d-man who is bottom3 on his team is not as sexy a trade-piece as a 22 year old d-man who is playing bottom3 on his team, because the market would likely consider the 22 year old as possessing more untapped/unrealised upside.

On the other hand, your data shows D+3 is far too early to know if a d-man is going to be worth keeping for his top45TOI upside or not. So the sweet spot is around D+4 and D+6 in order to ascertain this top45TOI upside whilst maintaining some bit of market trade value.

I did provide the full list at the end. I can try to locate the guys who flamed out. Some of these players are also some quality #3 sitting on the wrong chair

ReHabs · Jul 15, 2024

Le Barron de HF said:
I did provide the full list at the end. I can try to locate the guys who flamed out. Some of these players are also some quality #3 sitting on the wrong chair

That was a list of players who at one point played top45 TOI in the last decade, and the amount of times they played top45 TOI-- am I correct?

We could make filter to look at players who played Top45 TOI/gp (to catch those who missed it by injury) but I don't think that's a very good filter for the overarching point. Another filter would be to find players who only featured a few times (say: less than 33% of all seasons they've played) and find out if they're in the wrong chair and how many years since their draft it's taken them to get top45 TOI -- basically to find out if some of these players have untapped upside and what their D+n status is. I'm not sure how valuable that would be but it might reveal something.

calder candidate · Jul 15, 2024

Great work but I feel like most guy have shown potentiel before they get mass recongnition, most of these guy started to outperformed starting D+1/D+2 even when they hadn't made in the NHL.
Most D man usually hit there prime a bit later around 26-30

Victoire HuGo · Jul 15, 2024

calder candidate said:
Great work but I feel like most guy have shown potentiel before they get mass recongnition, most of these guy started to outperformed starting D+1/D+2 even when they hadn't made in the NHL.
Most D man usually hit there prime a bit later around 26-30

I do agree, I think TOI increase tells a good portion of the story in these cases.

Zilo44 · Jul 15, 2024

The OP gave me patience for Barron. I’ll shut it for another year because of you. Thank you

Victoire HuGo · Aug 31, 2024

I'm gonna do a necro bump on this post with some added info since a big debate of this summer has been what to do with Matheson so he doesn't D-Block (trademark pending) our defensive prospects and hurt their progression. I took a look at the season before each of the defenseman's breakout to see if they were D-Blocked or find any reason as to why they suddenly broke out.

NAME	TIMES IN TOP 45	DRAFT POSITION	ROUND	NOTE	COMPETITION BLOCKING SEASON BEFORE BREAKOUT?	NOTE
Adam Fox	4	66	3	D+4	TROUBA, SKJEI, DEANGELO	ROOKIE SEASON, SKJEI GONE NEXT SEASON
Alex Pietrangelo	10	4	1	D+4	NO	HITCHCOCK JOINING TEAM
Andrei Markov	2	162	6	D+5	BRISEBOIS, SOURAY, DYKHUIS, ROBIDAS, QUINTAL, RIVET	2nd NHL season
Brent Burns	9	20	1	D+5	JOHNSSON, NUMMELIN, SKOULA, SCHULTZ, FOSTER
Cale Makar	4	4	1	D+3	NO
Charlie McAvoy	5	14	1	D+4	NO
Dougie Hamilton	2	9	1	D+4	CHARA, SEIDENBERG / BRODIE, GIORDANO, RUSSELL, WIDEMAN	RUSSELL GONE NEXT SEASON
Drew Doughty	10	2	1	D+2	NO
Duncan Keith	7	54	2	D+5	NO	2nd NHL season
Erik Karlsson	10	15	1	D+4	NO	MACLEAN JOINING TEAM
Jaccob Slavin	7	120	4	D+5	FAULK, HAINSEY	ROOKIE SEASON
John Carlson	10	27	1	D+7	NO	TROTZ JOINING TEAM
John Klingberg	5	131	5	D+6	GOLIGOSKI, DALEY	ROOKIE SEASON, DALEY GONE NEXT SEASON
Kris Letang	10	62	3	D+6	GONCHAR	GONCHAR GONE NEXT SEASON
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	2	35	2	D+9	BOYLE
Mark Giordano	7	n/a	n/a	D+12	BOUWMEESTER, WIDEMAN	BOUWMEESTER TRADED AT TDL SEASON BEFORE
Miro Heiskanen	6	3	1	D+3	KLINGBERG, LINDELL	2nd NHL season
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	6	6	1	D+4	YANDLE (PP TIME)
P.K. Subban	5	43	2	D+6	NO	THERRIEN JOINING TEAM
Quinn Hughes	4	7	1	D+2	NO
Rasmus Dahlin	3	1	1	D+4	RISTOLAINEN	RISTOLAINEN TRADED NEXT SEASON
Roman Josi	10	38	2	D+7	NO	WEBER AND HIM HAD NEARLY IDENTICAL ICE TIME, LAVIOLETTE JOINING TEAM
Ryan McDonagh	4	12	1	D+5	STAAL, GIRARDI, ROZSIVAL, MDZ	ROOKIE SEASON, ROSZSIVAL TRADED DURING THAT SEASON, 2nd NHL season
Ryan Suter	7	7	1	D+6	HAMHUIS, ZIDLICKY	ZIDLICKY GONE NEXT SEASON
Seth Jones	8	4	1	D+4	NO	TRADED TO CBJ SEASON BEFORE MIDWAY POINT
Shea Theodore	3	26	1	D+7	SCHMIDT
Shea Weber	7	49	2	D+5	TIMONEN, HAMHUIS, SUTER, ZIDLICKY	TIMONEN TRADED NEXT SEASON
Victor Hedman	10	2	1	D+5	CARLE	COOPER FULL SEASON
Zdeno Chara	4	56	3	D+7		TRADED TO OTT NEXT YEAR (COACHING HELPED?)

Aaron Ekblad	6	1	1	D+4	YANDLE	BOUGHNER JOINING TEAM
Alexander Edler	6	91	3	D+5	OHLUND, SALO, BIEKSA, MITCHELL	2nd NHL season
Cam Fowler	7	12	1	D+4	BEAUCHEMIN, SOURAY	SOURAY GONE NEXT SEASON
Colton Parayko	6	86	3	D+6	PIETRANGELO, BOUWMEESTER	3rd NHL season, Yeo full season
Devon Toews	4	108	4	D+7	PULOCK, LEDDY, BOYCHUK, MAYFIELD, PELECH, HICKEY	ROOKIE SEASON, BOYCHUK & HICKEY GONE NEXT SEASON
Dion Phaneuf	2	9	1	D+3		ROOKIE SEASON
Dustin Byfuglien	5	245	8	D+7		TRADED TO WPG, FULL TIME SWITCH TO D
Hampus Lindholm	7	6	1	D+4	BEAUCHEMIN	BEAUCHEMIN GONE NEXT SEASON
Jared Spurgeon	6	156	6	D+9	SUTER	BOUDREAU NAMED COACH SEASON AFTER
Jay Bouwmeester	3	3	1	D+5	NO
Jeff Petry	6	45	2	D+12	WEBER
Jonas Brodin	5	10	1	D+4	SUTER
Josh Morrissey	6	13	1	D+10	NO	BOWNESS JOINING TEAM
Keith Yandle	3	105	4	D+6	MICHALEK, AUCOIN, JOVANOVSKI, SCHNEIDER	MICHALEK, SCHNEIDER BOTH GONE NEXT SEASON
MacKenzie Weegar	2	206	7	D+8	EKBLAD, STRALMAN
Mattias Ekholm	6	102	4	D+8	JOSI, WEBER, ELLIS
Morgan Rielly	7	5	1	D+6	NO
Moritz Seider	2	6	1	D+4	NO	LALONDE JOINING TEAM
Vince Dunn	2	56	2	D+8	LARSSON, GIORDANO	GIORDANO TRADED AT TDL SEASON BEFORE
Zach Werenski	7	8	1	D+5	JONES

Out of those 51 players, there were 19 instances of 2 or more players blocking the player. There were 15 instances where they were already the most used defenseman.

I put in bold the examples that I find interesting :

Fox is interesting because it showed that Gorton was never afraid to make room for some of his younger D (DeAngelo and Fox). Lindgren would be joining the team the next year as well.

Letang definitely showed he was ready to take the next step in his game. He was also well surrounded though. The inaptitude of Bylsma and Crosby injuries might have prevented them from having better success.

Giordano is clearly an outlier but it's interesting that he blossomed once a fellow minute muncher like Bouwmeester was out of his way.

Now here are the two examples I find fit the most the situation Montreal currently has:

Dahlin: Ristolainen is far from a perfect player and made a lot of minutes but it was as a result of him playing too minutes; sounds familiar? Now after the trade; Dahlin took a step but it can be argued it was by natural progression that he had his breakthrough the season after (so 1 full year after being handed the reins as 'the guy'.

Lindholm: Similar story you have a player with big draft pedigree that is part of a young defensive squad (him, Vatanen, Manson, Despres were all fairly early in their careers). After that season, yes he did get some Norris love (not a lot 17th the year of his breakthrough) but until he was traded to BOS those first couple seasons where his minutes were sheltered, he never managed to produce the points he had set in his first two seasons. Be careful what you wish for with handing players too many responsibilities too early in their career.

Now final word: I am confident in the coaching staff (and management) knowing what they have to not rush things.

Estimated_Prophet · Aug 31, 2024

Le Barron de HF said:
Hello all,

After 3 drafts, a large portion of the fanbase is satisfied with how things are going but it seems many are worried about the lack of potential #1D as part of the defensive prospects. I took the time to go over the last decade of NHL data to try to analyze the draft pedigree and how long it took for teams to see what they had with some of their defenseman. To start, I selected the top 45 defenseman in icetime over the last 10 seasons. I used that data to make easier to pinpoint the defenders who part of the elite. Of course, some were simply stopgaps or a result of a terrible team (see Ristolainen).

The purpose of this was to see how long it took for a team to know what they had since defenseman take so long to develop and, at times, are late bloomers.

My definition of a stud is the cream of the crop, a defenseman who's among the elite and has a strong case for the Norris trophy. IMO, this type of piece is not crucial for this team to become a SC champion but would definitely increase the chances of becoming one. My definition of a top pair defenseman is a player who would be good enough to be your #1 and win a SC.

For the stud, here is how the data broke down:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NAME[/TD]
[TD]TIMES IN TOP 45[/TD]
[TD]DRAFT POSITION[/TD]
[TD]ROUND[/TD]
[TD]NOTE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Fox[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
66
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Pietrangelo[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Markov[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
162
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Burns[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
20
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlie McAvoy[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dougie Hamilton[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duncan Keith[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
54
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaccob Slavin[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
120
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Carlson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
27
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Klingberg[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
131
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Letang[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
62
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc-Edouard Vlasic[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
35
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]D+12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miro Heiskanen[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oliver Ekman-Larsson[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.K. Subban[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
43
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinn Hughes[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Dahlin[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Roman Josi[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
38
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan McDonagh[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Suter[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seth Jones[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Theodore[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
26
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
49
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average draft position: 35th

Break down of how long it took for these players to be recognized (either via ice time uptick or Norris vote) or show they can be counted on as their team's go to guy:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]D+2[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+3[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+4[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+5[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+6[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+7[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+9[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+12[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

For the top pair players:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NAME[/TD]
[TD]TIMES IN TOP 45[/TD]
[TD]DRAFT POSITION[/TD]
[TD]ROUND[/TD]
[TD]NOTE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Aaron Ekblad[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Edler[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
91
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam Fowler[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton Parayko[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
86
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
108
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dion Phaneuf[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Byfuglien[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
245
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]D+7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hampus Lindholm[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jared Spurgeon[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
156
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]D+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jay Bouwmeester[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeff Petry[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
45
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonas Brodin[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Morrissey[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
13
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keith Yandle[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
105
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MacKenzie Weegar[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
206
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Ekholm[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
102
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moritz Seider[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vince Dunn[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]D+8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Werenski[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]D+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average draft position: 64th

Break down of how long it took:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]D+3[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+4[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+5[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+6[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+7[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+8[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+9[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+10[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D+12[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Without any real surprise, it seems like it's often during the D+4/D+5 season that teams start realizing what they have.

In the cases of outliers for either of these:
They were either undersized (Hutson) or European (Reinbacher, Engstrom, Bogdan) or simply a late bloomer.

Given that Guhle and Barron are the oldest ones of the group and only entering their D+5 year, I think patience from this fanbase and management will be key. Considering the overhaul of the development and what some of our youngsters have, if they are surrounded by key vets and not yo-yo'd like previous management, I have no concern that this team is in good hands.

Reinbacher is entering his D+2 year.
Hutson/Engstrom are entering their D+3 year.
Mailloux is entering his D+4 year.
Struble is entering his D+6 year.
Harris is entering his D+7 year.

I'll also throw in the fact that Engstrom is the one that was selected the latest of the bunch at 92nd overall. With the averages pointed out earlier, some of these have the draft pedigree of their peers to achieve such a ceiling.

We never know what we have and as shown by some of the examples above, a lot a quick to dismiss prospects or assign them a ceiling without having had the opportunity to gain experience and work on their warts.

Plz like and subscribe

PS: Full table for those curious of the players that appeared in top 45 TOI over last decade:
Name / Times appearing in the list / Draft position
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Aaron Ekblad[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Fox[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
66
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Larsson[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alec Martinez[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
95
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Goligoski[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
61
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Pietrangelo[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Edler[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
91
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Markov[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
162
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andy Greene[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anton Stralman[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
216
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ben Chiarot[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brandon Montour[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Burns[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]

[TD]
20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brent Seabrook[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Pesce[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
66
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brock Faber[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam Fowler[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam York[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlie McAvoy[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cody Ceci[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton Parayko[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Damon Severson[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dan Girardi[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Darnell Nurse[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Savard[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
94
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dennis Wideman[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
241
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
108
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dion Phaneuf[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dmitry Orlov[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dougie Hamilton[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duncan Keith[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
54
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Byfuglien[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
245
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Gustafsson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
93
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Johnson[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Esa Lindell[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
74
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Evan Bouchard[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Filip Hronek[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Francois Beauchemin[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
75
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gustav Forsling[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
126
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hampus Lindholm[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivan Provorov[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaccob Slavin[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jack Johnson[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jacob Trouba[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Muzzin[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
141
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Sanderson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jakob Chychrun[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jared Spurgeon[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jay Bouwmeester[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jeff Petry[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Carlson[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
27
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Klingberg[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
131
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jonas Brodin[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Morrissey[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
13
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Faulk[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
37
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Keith Yandle[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
105
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Letang[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
62
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kris Russell[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
67
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MacKenzie Weegar[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
206
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc Methot[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
168
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marc-Edouard Vlasic[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
35
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marco Scandella[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
55
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marcus Pettersson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Ferraro[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mathew Dumba[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Hunwick[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
224
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Niskanen[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
28
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Ekholm[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
102
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mattias Samuelsson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
32
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Del Zotto[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Green[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Matheson[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mikhail Sergachev[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miro Heiskanen[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Moritz Seider[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Neal Pionk[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Leddy[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Zaitsev[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Niklas Kronwall[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
29
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Dobson[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Hanifin[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oliver Ekman-Larsson[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oscar Klefbom[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Power[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.K. Subban[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
43
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul Martin[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
62
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinn Hughes[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Andersson[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Dahlin[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmus Ristolainen[/TD]

[TD]
5
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Roman Josi[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
38
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Ellis[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan McDonagh[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Murray[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Pulock[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Suter[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
47
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Durzi[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
52
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seth Jones[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Theodore[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
26
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Slava Voynov[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
32
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas Chabot[/TD]

[TD]
6
[/TD]

[TD]
18
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Toby Enstrom[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
239
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tony DeAngelo[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Torey Krug[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Hamonic[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
53
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Sanheim[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trevor Daley[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
43
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyler Myers[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Barrie[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]

[TD]
64
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]

[TD]
10
[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vince Dunn[/TD]

[TD]
2
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Bogosian[/TD]

[TD]
1
[/TD]

[TD]
3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zach Werenski[/TD]

[TD]
7
[/TD]

[TD]
8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]

[TD]
4
[/TD]

[TD]
56
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Great job, I have been saying this forever about dmen and even more so about goaltenders. I think if Guhle had played his left side the whole time and we were forced to play him on the PP that a lot of people who are somewhat down on his upside would be singing a different tune. Not only do dmen develop slower based on the amount of knowledge that they need to be effective; opportunity and surrounding circumstances play a large role as well. Many players on this list would have a different number for better or worse with different organizations and fans not only need patience but they need to understand the environment that the player is learning in and apply that context to any comparisons to other young d man.

Thanks for putting in the work buddy!

Player Discussion Analysis of the league's top d-men - Patience is key

Formerly le Barron de HF

Take my strong advice, always think twice

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