Le Barron de HF
Justin make me proud
Hello all,
After 3 drafts, a large portion of the fanbase is satisfied with how things are going but it seems many are worried about the lack of potential #1D as part of the defensive prospects. I took the time to go over the last decade of NHL data to try to analyze the draft pedigree and how long it took for teams to see what they had with some of their defenseman. To start, I selected the top 45 defenseman in icetime over the last 10 seasons. I used that data to make easier to pinpoint the defenders who part of the elite. Of course, some were simply stopgaps or a result of a terrible team (see Ristolainen).
The purpose of this was to see how long it took for a team to know what they had since defenseman take so long to develop and, at times, are late bloomers.
My definition of a stud is the cream of the crop, a defenseman who's among the elite and has a strong case for the Norris trophy. IMO, this type of piece is not crucial for this team to become a SC champion but would definitely increase the chances of becoming one. My definition of a top pair defenseman is a player who would be good enough to be your #1 and win a SC.
For the stud, here is how the data broke down:
Average draft position: 35th
Break down of how long it took for these players to be recognized (either via ice time uptick or Norris vote) or show they can be counted on as their team's go to guy:
For the top pair players:
Average draft position: 64th
Break down of how long it took:
Without any real surprise, it seems like it's often during the D+4/D+5 season that teams start realizing what they have.
In the cases of outliers for either of these:
They were either undersized (Hutson) or European (Reinbacher, Engstrom, Bogdan) or simply a late bloomer.
Given that Guhle and Barron are the oldest ones of the group and only entering their D+5 year, I think patience from this fanbase and management will be key. Considering the overhaul of the development and what some of our youngsters have, if they are surrounded by key vets and not yo-yo'd like previous management, I have no concern that this team is in good hands.
Reinbacher is entering his D+2 year.
Hutson/Engstrom are entering their D+3 year.
Mailloux is entering his D+4 year.
Struble is entering his D+6 year.
Harris is entering his D+7 year.
I'll also throw in the fact that Engstrom is the one that was selected the latest of the bunch at 92nd overall. With the averages pointed out earlier, some of these have the draft pedigree of their peers to achieve such a ceiling.
We never know what we have and as shown by some of the examples above, a lot a quick to dismiss prospects or assign them a ceiling without having had the opportunity to gain experience and work on their warts.
Plz like and subscribe
PS: Full table for those curious of the players that appeared in top 45 TOI over last decade:
Name / Times appearing in the list / Draft position
After 3 drafts, a large portion of the fanbase is satisfied with how things are going but it seems many are worried about the lack of potential #1D as part of the defensive prospects. I took the time to go over the last decade of NHL data to try to analyze the draft pedigree and how long it took for teams to see what they had with some of their defenseman. To start, I selected the top 45 defenseman in icetime over the last 10 seasons. I used that data to make easier to pinpoint the defenders who part of the elite. Of course, some were simply stopgaps or a result of a terrible team (see Ristolainen).
The purpose of this was to see how long it took for a team to know what they had since defenseman take so long to develop and, at times, are late bloomers.
My definition of a stud is the cream of the crop, a defenseman who's among the elite and has a strong case for the Norris trophy. IMO, this type of piece is not crucial for this team to become a SC champion but would definitely increase the chances of becoming one. My definition of a top pair defenseman is a player who would be good enough to be your #1 and win a SC.
For the stud, here is how the data broke down:
| NAME | TIMES IN TOP 45 | DRAFT POSITION | ROUND | NOTE |
| Adam Fox | 4 | 66 | 3 | D+4 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | 10 | 4 | 1 | D+4 |
| Andrei Markov | 2 | 162 | 6 | D+5 |
| Brent Burns | 9 | 20 | 1 | D+5 |
| Cale Makar | 4 | 4 | 1 | D+3 |
| Charlie McAvoy | 5 | 14 | 1 | D+4 |
| Dougie Hamilton | 2 | 9 | 1 | D+4 |
| Drew Doughty | 10 | 2 | 1 | D+2 |
| Duncan Keith | 7 | 54 | 2 | D+5 |
| Erik Karlsson | 10 | 15 | 1 | D+4 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 7 | 120 | 4 | D+5 |
| John Carlson | 10 | 27 | 1 | D+7 |
| John Klingberg | 5 | 131 | 5 | D+6 |
| Kris Letang | 10 | 62 | 3 | D+6 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2 | 35 | 2 | D+9 |
| Mark Giordano | 7 | n/a | n/a | D+12 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 6 | 3 | 1 | D+3 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 6 | 6 | 1 | D+4 |
| P.K. Subban | 5 | 43 | 2 | D+6 |
| Quinn Hughes | 4 | 7 | 1 | D+2 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 3 | 1 | 1 | D+4 |
| Roman Josi | 10 | 38 | 2 | D+7 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 4 | 12 | 1 | D+5 |
| Ryan Suter | 7 | 7 | 1 | D+6 |
| Seth Jones | 8 | 4 | 1 | D+4 |
| Shea Theodore | 3 | 26 | 1 | D+7 |
| Shea Weber | 7 | 49 | 2 | D+5 |
| Victor Hedman | 10 | 2 | 1 | D+5 |
| Zdeno Chara | 4 | 56 | 3 | D+7 |
Average draft position: 35th
Break down of how long it took for these players to be recognized (either via ice time uptick or Norris vote) or show they can be counted on as their team's go to guy:
| D+2 | 2 |
| D+3 | 2 |
| D+4 | 8 |
| D+5 | 7 |
| D+6 | 4 |
| D+7 | 4 |
| D+9 | 1 |
| D+12 | 1 |
For the top pair players:
| NAME | TIMES IN TOP 45 | DRAFT POSITION | ROUND | NOTE |
| Aaron Ekblad | 6 | 1 | 1 | D+4 |
| Alexander Edler | 6 | 91 | 3 | D+5 |
| Cam Fowler | 7 | 12 | 1 | D+4 |
| Colton Parayko | 6 | 86 | 3 | D+6 |
| Devon Toews | 4 | 108 | 4 | D+7 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 2 | 9 | 1 | D+3 |
| Dustin Byfuglien | 5 | 245 | 8 | D+7 |
| Hampus Lindholm | 7 | 6 | 1 | D+4 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 6 | 156 | 6 | D+9 |
| Jay Bouwmeester | 3 | 3 | 1 | D+5 |
| Jeff Petry | 6 | 45 | 2 | D+12 |
| Jonas Brodin | 5 | 10 | 1 | D+4 |
| Josh Morrissey | 6 | 13 | 1 | D+10 |
| Keith Yandle | 3 | 105 | 4 | D+6 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 2 | 206 | 7 | D+8 |
| Mattias Ekholm | 6 | 102 | 4 | D+8 |
| Morgan Rielly | 7 | 5 | 1 | D+6 |
| Moritz Seider | 2 | 6 | 1 | D+4 |
| Vince Dunn | 2 | 56 | 2 | D+8 |
| Zach Werenski | 7 | 8 | 1 | D+5 |
Average draft position: 64th
Break down of how long it took:
| D+3 | 1 |
| D+4 | 5 |
| D+5 | 3 |
| D+6 | 3 |
| D+7 | 2 |
| D+8 | 3 |
| D+9 | 1 |
| D+10 | 1 |
| D+12 | 1 |
Without any real surprise, it seems like it's often during the D+4/D+5 season that teams start realizing what they have.
In the cases of outliers for either of these:
They were either undersized (Hutson) or European (Reinbacher, Engstrom, Bogdan) or simply a late bloomer.
Given that Guhle and Barron are the oldest ones of the group and only entering their D+5 year, I think patience from this fanbase and management will be key. Considering the overhaul of the development and what some of our youngsters have, if they are surrounded by key vets and not yo-yo'd like previous management, I have no concern that this team is in good hands.
Reinbacher is entering his D+2 year.
Hutson/Engstrom are entering their D+3 year.
Mailloux is entering his D+4 year.
Struble is entering his D+6 year.
Harris is entering his D+7 year.
I'll also throw in the fact that Engstrom is the one that was selected the latest of the bunch at 92nd overall. With the averages pointed out earlier, some of these have the draft pedigree of their peers to achieve such a ceiling.
We never know what we have and as shown by some of the examples above, a lot a quick to dismiss prospects or assign them a ceiling without having had the opportunity to gain experience and work on their warts.
Plz like and subscribe
PS: Full table for those curious of the players that appeared in top 45 TOI over last decade:
Name / Times appearing in the list / Draft position
| Aaron Ekblad | 6 | 1 |
| Adam Fox | 4 | 66 |
| Adam Larsson | 3 | 4 |
| Alec Martinez | 2 | 95 |
| Alex Goligoski | 6 | 61 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | 10 | 4 |
| Alexander Edler | 6 | 91 |
| Andrei Markov | 2 | 162 |
| Andy Greene | 2 | n/a |
| Anton Stralman | 1 | 216 |
| Ben Chiarot | 2 | 120 |
| Brandon Montour | 3 | 55 |
| Brent Burns | 9 | 20 |
| Brent Seabrook | 1 | 14 |
| Brett Pesce | 2 | 66 |
| Brian Campbell | 1 | 156 |
| Brock Faber | 1 | 45 |
| Cale Makar | 4 | 4 |
| Cam Fowler | 7 | 12 |
| Cam York | 1 | 14 |
| Charlie McAvoy | 5 | 14 |
| Cody Ceci | 3 | 15 |
| Colton Parayko | 6 | 86 |
| Damon Severson | 3 | 60 |
| Dan Girardi | 1 | n/a |
| Darnell Nurse | 5 | 7 |
| David Savard | 3 | 94 |
| Dennis Wideman | 1 | 241 |
| Devon Toews | 4 | 108 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 2 | 9 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 2 | 55 |
| Dougie Hamilton | 2 | 9 |
| Drew Doughty | 10 | 2 |
| Duncan Keith | 7 | 54 |
| Dustin Byfuglien | 5 | 245 |
| Erik Gustafsson | 1 | 93 |
| Erik Johnson | 4 | 1 |
| Erik Karlsson | 10 | 15 |
| Esa Lindell | 3 | 74 |
| Evan Bouchard | 1 | 10 |
| Filip Hronek | 3 | 53 |
| Francois Beauchemin | 2 | 75 |
| Gustav Forsling | 1 | 126 |
| Hampus Lindholm | 7 | 6 |
| Ivan Provorov | 6 | 7 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 7 | 120 |
| Jack Johnson | 2 | 3 |
| Jacob Trouba | 5 | 9 |
| Jake Muzzin | 3 | 141 |
| Jake Sanderson | 1 | 5 |
| Jakob Chychrun | 4 | 16 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 6 | 156 |
| Jay Bouwmeester | 3 | 3 |
| Jeff Petry | 6 | 45 |
| John Carlson | 10 | 27 |
| John Klingberg | 5 | 131 |
| Jonas Brodin | 5 | 10 |
| Josh Morrissey | 6 | 13 |
| Justin Faulk | 7 | 37 |
| Keith Yandle | 3 | 105 |
| Kris Letang | 10 | 62 |
| Kris Russell | 2 | 67 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 2 | 206 |
| Marc Methot | 1 | 168 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2 | 35 |
| Marco Scandella | 1 | 55 |
| Marcus Pettersson | 1 | 38 |
| Mario Ferraro | 2 | 49 |
| Mark Giordano | 7 | n/a |
| Mathew Dumba | 4 | 7 |
| Matt Hunwick | 1 | 224 |
| Matt Niskanen | 3 | 28 |
| Mattias Ekholm | 6 | 102 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 1 | 32 |
| Michael Del Zotto | 1 | 20 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 29 |
| Mike Matheson | 2 | 23 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 3 | 9 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 6 | 3 |
| Morgan Rielly | 7 | 5 |
| Moritz Seider | 2 | 6 |
| Neal Pionk | 1 | n/a |
| Nick Leddy | 2 | 16 |
| Nikita Zaitsev | 1 | n/a |
| Niklas Kronwall | 1 | 29 |
| Noah Dobson | 1 | 12 |
| Noah Hanifin | 2 | 5 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 6 | 6 |
| Oscar Klefbom | 4 | 19 |
| Owen Power | 2 | 1 |
| P.K. Subban | 5 | 43 |
| Paul Martin | 1 | 62 |
| Quinn Hughes | 4 | 7 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 3 | 53 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 3 | 1 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen | 5 | 8 |
| Roman Josi | 10 | 38 |
| Ryan Ellis | 6 | 11 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 4 | 12 |
| Ryan Murray | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Pulock | 4 | 15 |
| Ryan Suter | 7 | 7 |
| Samuel Girard | 1 | 47 |
| Sean Durzi | 1 | 52 |
| Seth Jones | 8 | 4 |
| Shea Theodore | 3 | 26 |
| Shea Weber | 7 | 49 |
| Slava Voynov | 1 | 32 |
| Thomas Chabot | 6 | 18 |
| TJ Brodie | 4 | 114 |
| Toby Enstrom | 1 | 239 |
| Tony DeAngelo | 1 | 19 |
| Torey Krug | 1 | n/a |
| Travis Hamonic | 1 | 53 |
| Travis Sanheim | 2 | 17 |
| Trevor Daley | 1 | 43 |
| Tyler Myers | 3 | 12 |
| Tyson Barrie | 3 | 64 |
| Victor Hedman | 10 | 2 |
| Vince Dunn | 2 | 56 |
| Zach Bogosian | 1 | 3 |
| Zach Werenski | 7 | 8 |
| Zdeno Chara | 4 | 56 |
