Other than the part about the possibility of drafting one a minute ago, that's essentially how I view it until Cutter can prove otherwise. As we've seen, late first round picks are a crapshoot. Snuggerud/Kulich were my preference at the time, but I'm more than fine with Gaucher and think he'll work out well.
I'm not going to cry over spilled milk if Drysdale reaches his #1 ceiling in Philly because that has no affect on my view of the trade. If he does, good for him. However, if Cutter significantly underperforms or doesn't pan out and the RHD remains a hole in the roster then I can't say I'd be surprised. That possibility is very real and one I think has been glossed over on this board. People seem to think the RHD hole can be easily addressed and I'm really not convinced it can. RHD don't exactly grow on trees and right now all we have is one big question mark with Luneau, an outside shot with Warren, and that's pretty much it.
Alternatively, the homerun scenario would be Cutter and Luneau hit the ground running next year and look like top line/pairing players. I just don't know how likely that is as opposed to the former scenario.
The reason I'm so high on this trade is because I don't really see any of these issues as negatively affecting the trade value.
First, I don't see Drysdale as having a #1D ceiling. I don't see a path for him to get there. A #1D has to either be very good at everything (a la Pietrangelo, Fox, or Hedman) or be elite at a couple things and at least passable at everything else (like Makar or prime Karlsson). Maybe Drysdale has elite skating, and he's got very good hockey sense, but none of his other skills are much better than average. Some of them are still developing, but he doesn't project to have a good shot, or be a good creator, or be a good penalty killer. I think he can be a fine #2 on a playoff team, but I don't see the route to anything higher.
Second, the Ducks were going to have to do something about RD regardless of whether Drysdale stayed. They need physical defenders to play alongside their PMDs, who are mostly left side guys. Lyubushkin is not good enough to cut it, at least not long-term, and Drysdale was never going to be able to fill that role. So I don't see trading Drysdale as creating a hole that wasn't already there.
Third, I really do think that it would be an unexpected disappointment if Luneau stalls out and doesn't become close to what Drysdale could be. Perhaps I'm just higher on him than others here, but I really liked what I saw this season. I think Drysdale is a sure thing 2/3, and there's a risk Luneau is never better than a 4/5. But I think Luneau's ceiling is just as high as Drysdale's, so I like Luneau's chances of filling whatever role Jamie was going to fill, but with a different skillset.
The other side of this is Gauthier, who could bust. But I have to trust the consensus among prospect hounds who think the kid is going to be a top-6 goal scorer, something the Ducks DESPERATELY need. So for me, the worst case scenario is that the Ducks, like everyone else, missed something about Gauthier that they should have seen. But I don't see trading Drysdale as creating a new issue that they'll now have to solve. They already had questions to answer about the composition of their defense corps.
