An optimistic view of our goaltending

[JT AM da real deal]

So, minus some potentially incoming young guys like Knies or Abruzesse we know what this roster is going to be for the playoffs. I know there has been a lot of hand wringing over the goaltending, and I get it, I’ve been alongside with my concerns, but no one was acquired so let’s look at the reasons why this could work out, since most here will and are doing the opposite:

In 2022 Cambell has played 17 games. 5 of these came prior to Muzzin’s first concussion. In those 5 games, Campbell was still at a .909 average sv%, with only 2 games under .900 and one of those was .898 on 49 shots from Colorado. I think it’s safe to conclude that at this point Jan 15th Campbell was still playing at a level that we can work with.

Over the next 12 games, Muzzin would return for 4 in the middle before getting concussed again. Campbell’s average over those 12 plummets to a dismal .850

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that one of our best defenders in front of the net, and best at clearing out people, going down or just returning coincides with this stretch for Campbell (and Mrazek). You can see this as well imo in how many more goals seemed to be coming off deflections than usual. I think teams were intentionally putting pucks in there and exposing a known weakness.

This is interesting to me.

Now Campbell has had his own struggles as well, for sure. But for what it’s worth, the softies imo seemed to ramp up as the stretch of bad play dragged on. So, to me, that’s quite likely a confidence issue resulting from the barrage of goals going into the net.

Alternatively, we can look to the Jack Campbell rib injury, which Rielly seems to confirm had been bothering him for some time before they shut him down for at least 2 weeks. No doubt, playing goal through a rib injury has the high probability of impacting your play, even your focus if you are in pain.

By all accounts Muzzin is progressing well and will return before the playoffs.

Campbell has only played 4 games with new Leaf Lyubushkin in the lineup.

Gio now inbound from the trade deadline is still excellent in his own zone.

Those 3 players are going to dramatically assist our in zone play and physicality on the backend. Their acquisitions/returns allow us to slot our D into appropriate roles where they can excel/provide the most value to the team.

Lastly, we were seeing a lot of line juggling for a while that seems to have mostly stabilized which can only help as well.

I see a lot of cause for an optimistic outlook here and I think you should too.

Very interesting way to look at it .. I hope you are right .. but I fear Soup is another one of those guys who are good but when it really really counts you can't rely on him .. I still think we will end up starting Soup and then go to a kid if he melts down like Freddy .. there have been many kids who have come from nowhere to win Cup(s) .. Ward, Roy, Murray, etc .. da league did not know them and they were all money tenders as kids with loads of confidence to beat anyone anytime anywhere .. we have 2 kids right now in our system who have his attitude .. again just a hunch but i think if we go anywhere these 2 kids will lead da team

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Campbell coming back and Mrazek SA% can’t get any worse. Mrazek was 0.91 before coming to the Leafs He can play better

 

[Enga Olly]

Obviously it's all speculation and it depends on whether one is a wishful thinker (that's me) or a realist or a cynical negative nellie, so not one of us actually knows anything. I think both Campbell and Mrazek are capable and likely to get back to NHL level goaltending. I also think Matthews and Marner have picked up valuable PO experience from the previous years debacles. Nothing teaches like failure. Combined with us going in as underdogs against our 1st round opponent, I think we have a good shot at advancing. I'm hopeful but then again I've literally been hopeful for 50 years so what do I know?

 

[Gary Nylund]

As someone else said, we just need him to find his game and we will be buzzing. It's just unknown whether he will do that or not. I am optimistic he will because I don't have any other option to hope for lol.

+1

Gotta hope we somehow get decent goaltending cause if we do we have a shot against any team and if we don't, we're toast. And goalies are voodoo so there's always hope.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Those 3 players are going to dramatically assist our in zone play and physicality on the backend. Their acquisitions/returns allow us to slot our D into appropriate roles where they can excel/provide the most value to the team.

Not sure if it's just wishful thinking or not, but I think you might be on to something here. Of course Muzzin hasn't been very good this year so not sure how much of a boost he'll bring, but we'll see. Anyhow nice post, the dose of optimism is most welcome.

 

[Tak7]

Optimistic view:

• Injury has hopefully served as a reset for Campbell, letting him focus on good practices & skill development, rather than worrying about games.
• The trade deadline is now over, which hopefully lets Campbell just exhale and relax, knowing he's still the starter
• The team has lost all confidence in Mrazek, meaning Campbell isn't having to look in the rear-view mirror worrying about competition for the crease.

All of those things should hopefully lead to much more relaxed, focused, and sharp Campbell.

 

[Sypher04]

Not sure if it's just wishful thinking or not, but I think you might be on to something here. Of course Muzzin hasn't been very good this year so not sure how much of a boost he'll bring, but we'll see. Anyhow nice post, the dose of optimism is most welcome.

Well the upside is we don’t need him in the top 6 anymore, so we can ease him back

 

[2 Slick]

My view is pretty pessimistic considering the goaltending we’ve gotten since December 1st. That’s in regards to Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek has been horrendous all season long.

I do have a feeling that our goaltending will slightly improve, but not at the levels required to go far in the playoffs. I just don’t see it.

Mrazek has easily some of the worst positioning I’ve ever seen from a goaltender in my life. He doesn’t know where his posts are. He plays An overly frenetic style, too aggressive and leaves lots of rebounds in the slot. I actually have zero faith in Petr Mrazek, I don’t care what he’s done in the past, I just care about this season and he’s not proven anything so far.

I do think Jack Campbell will slightly improve, but not at the levels that we saw in October or November. I just don’t think our goaltending is good enough or will be good enough to outlast a much better team such as Tampa that has elite goaltending.

For me, goaltending is the biggest question mark heading into the playoffs and into next season.

It’s pretty hard for me to be positive when it comes to Toronto, they find new and inventive ways to disappoint me in the playoffs every single year. When they start producing a little bit more results, maybe my positivity will make a triumphant comeback.

 

[DarkKnight]

Just hope the rest has given Campbell a chance to mentally reset. Dubas can publicly express all the confidence he wants, but the fact is they tried to get Fleury, tried to get a guy from Europe, plus whatever else we don’t know about it, so he obviously shares some concerns.

In Jack we trust! Mrazek is a lost cause.

 

[Burnie97]

So, minus some potentially incoming young guys like Knies or Abruzesse we know what this roster is going to be for the playoffs. I know there has been a lot of hand wringing over the goaltending, and I get it, I’ve been alongside with my concerns, but no one was acquired so let’s look at the reasons why this could work out, since most here will and are doing the opposite:

In 2022 Cambell has played 17 games. 5 of these came prior to Muzzin’s first concussion. In those 5 games, Campbell was still at a .909 average sv%, with only 2 games under .900 and one of those was .898 on 49 shots from Colorado. I think it’s safe to conclude that at this point Jan 15th Campbell was still playing at a level that we can work with.

Over the next 12 games, Muzzin would return for 4 in the middle before getting concussed again. Campbell’s average over those 12 plummets to a dismal .850

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that one of our best defenders in front of the net, and best at clearing out people, going down or just returning coincides with this stretch for Campbell (and Mrazek). You can see this as well imo in how many more goals seemed to be coming off deflections than usual. I think teams were intentionally putting pucks in there and exposing a known weakness.

This is interesting to me.

Now Campbell has had his own struggles as well, for sure. But for what it’s worth, the softies imo seemed to ramp up as the stretch of bad play dragged on. So, to me, that’s quite likely a confidence issue resulting from the barrage of goals going into the net.

Alternatively, we can look to the Jack Campbell rib injury, which Rielly seems to confirm had been bothering him for some time before they shut him down for at least 2 weeks. No doubt, playing goal through a rib injury has the high probability of impacting your play, even your focus if you are in pain.

By all accounts Muzzin is progressing well and will return before the playoffs.

Campbell has only played 4 games with new Leaf Lyubushkin in the lineup.

Gio now inbound from the trade deadline is still excellent in his own zone.

Those 3 players are going to dramatically assist our in zone play and physicality on the backend. Their acquisitions/returns allow us to slot our D into appropriate roles where they can excel/provide the most value to the team.

Lastly, we were seeing a lot of line juggling for a while that seems to have mostly stabilized which can only help as well.

I see a lot of cause for an optimistic outlook here and I think you should too.

If the Gio/Brodie and Rielly/Boosh pairs can allow Muzz/Holl to play against teams' bottom 6, we are golden.

I think it'll go a long way forsure when we have everyone Healthy and ready to go. Cross your fingers it's all good come playoff time.

The roster is what it is but the D with everyone healthy could be very good.

The big boys need to score in the playoffs.

If that's all happening I hope to god Jack can just make the big saves when the Leafs need them.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

+ = jack will carry us

In Jack I trust

lfg !!!

 

[LeafChief]

If Jack actually had broken ribs, he is going to come back as a different goalie once he returns. As someone that has had broken ribs, it hurts doing just about anything.

 

[Mugzy97]

If Jack actually had broken ribs, he is going to come back as a different goalie once he returns. As someone that has had broken ribs, it hurts doing just about anything.

I personally believe his ribs are just fine

 

[LeafChief]

I personally believe his ribs are just fine

Well I guess that settles it. Mugzy has spoken.

 

[Menzinger]

Jack's issues have been mental rather than technical and the leafs have apparently one of the top sports psychologists on staff. I think this injury break is probably good for him to sort himself out.

The Leafs also should.have a strong D core too with the Gio addition which should ease some concerns

 

[Twine Tickler]

Happens to the bet of em…

I still believe in you soup doggy dogg

 

[LeafsGuy16]

Great post OP, I agree. Although will admit that this is the glass half full perspective. Ultimately, there’s no reason that Jack can’t bounce back to his old self. Especially with a strong team defence.

 

[jaric1862]

My optimistic way of looking at it...I think adding a healthy Muzzin and Giordano will make the goaltenders life a lot easier.

 

[nsleaf]

Who couldn't have faith in this guy?

 

[Brown Dog]

My view is pretty pessimistic considering the goaltending we’ve gotten since December 1st. That’s in regards to Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek has been horrendous all season long.

I do have a feeling that our goaltending will slightly improve, but not at the levels required to go far in the playoffs. I just don’t see it.

Mrazek has easily some of the worst positioning I’ve ever seen from a goaltender in my life. He doesn’t know where his posts are. He plays An overly frenetic style, too aggressive and leaves lots of rebounds in the slot. I actually have zero faith in Petr Mrazek, I don’t care what he’s done in the past, I just care about this season and he’s not proven anything so far.

I do think Jack Campbell will slightly improve, but not at the levels that we saw in October or November. I just don’t think our goaltending is good enough or will be good enough to outlast a much better team such as Tampa that has elite goaltending.

For me, goaltending is the biggest question mark heading into the playoffs and into next season.

It’s pretty hard for me to be positive when it comes to Toronto, they find new and inventive ways to disappoint me in the playoffs every single year. When they start producing a little bit more results, maybe my positivity will make a triumphant comeback.

It honestly feels like this is how the players are thinking out there in the playoffs-- everyone is holding their breath waiting for something bad to happen and then it inevitably does.

I really think we will see a different team once this group can get over the mental hurdle of the first round. Another reason that Montreal loss still stings so bad (it was such a golden opportunity to get that monkey off the back).

We need some good fortune in Round 1 for a change! And we need Jack to be at his best.

 

[saltming]

Jack is a good goalie.

No solid proof he is or isn't

 

[Cor]

At this point, all we can do is try and be optimistic.

We need Jack Campbell to return to form. The season relies on it.

This is one of the most talented group of skaters this team Has seen in a long time. We saw the results of that earlier this year when we were getting quality goaltending. We were dominate.

Since Jan 1, I think we are somewhere around .880 on sv%, and yet still have a winning record. It’s hard to believe.

we could get even .910 goaltending and we’d win a ton of games

lets hope he can get there

 

[thusk]

If the Gio/Brodie and Rielly/Boosh pairs can allow Muzz/Holl to play against teams' bottom 6, we are golden.

I dont thing its gonna wotk that way. Muzzin when hes playing at his level still best leafs defender defensive side. Muzzin will probably play against top physical player.

Exemple against floride
Muzzin pair can play against barkov
Brodie/giordano against huberdeau
And use as much of possible rielly on offensive situation

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Just hope the rest has given Campbell a chance to mentally reset. Dubas can publicly express all the confidence he wants, but the fact is they tried to get Fleury, tried to get a guy from Europe, plus whatever else we don’t know about it, so he obviously shares some concerns.

In Jack we trust! Mrazek is a lost cause.

The reported attempt at acquiring Fleury is about a big a vote of no confidence against Jack as Dubas could have expressed. Actions speak louder than words.

No wonder Dubas was angry when it went public.

 

[aingefan]

When I close my eyes I can still see Campbell letting that softee by Gallagher go through him in Game 7.
I won't be optimistic until that's forgotten by delivering a better playoff memory.

Be a goldfish.